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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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B

BoboBrazil

Member
Black Republican said:
not sure if true or not, but Breitbart saying Rubio is skipping this years CPAC

he's pretty much toast if he does that
Click to expand...

True

@CPAC
Although @marcorubio has built a conservative record & high ACU rating, he & his campaign have made a rookie mistake by not attending #CPAC.



He needs to change his name to Marco Polo because most of the time you don't see him.
 
C

CCS

Banned
BoboBrazil said:
True

@CPAC
Although @marcorubio has built a conservative record & high ACU rating, he & his campaign have made a rookie mistake by not attending #CPAC.



He needs to change his name to Marco Polo because most of the time you don't see him.
Click to expand...

Serious question: why on earth would he do that? My god his campaign is a big fat mess.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Plinko said:
LOL--didn't a poll recently say that a majority of Americans said they should have the hearing?
Click to expand...
Didn't a majority of Americans oppose a shutdown?

The only way this hurts is if it hurts the blue state senators. Even then I don't think it will. I really don't think they're gonna pay too much a price.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
adam387 said:
Why in the hell is he doing this? It's asinine. He cannot let her run huge margins in moderator contested States like Virginia or Texas. Lord. If I'd donated to him if he livid.
Click to expand...

It's a decision of necessity. I assume his campaign is honest enough in private to admit he isn't making any progress with black voters who will largely dominate many of the southern states. The campaign burned through a lot of cash last month and spent a lot of resources trying to win Nevada. They can't afford to waste a lot of time in the south on primaries they're going to lose badly.

I don't get the impression Sanders' camp put much thought into actually playing to win. He caught on last year unexpectedly, Biden and other candidates didn't run, and eventually his numbers started going up. If he had an actual game plan he would have spent some time in the south early last year introducing himself. You've got to do well with African Americans and Hispanics to win...and more and more it's clear his camp didn't believe that, or didn't care. It's too late to play catch up.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Cesare Borgia said:
It's a decision of necessity. I assume his campaign is honest enough in private to admit he isn't making any progress with black voters who will largely dominate many of the southern states. The campaign burned through a lot of cash last month and spent a lot of resources trying to win Nevada. They can't afford to waste a lot of time in the south on primaries they're going to lose badly.

I don't get the impression Sanders' camp put much thought into actually playing to win. He caught on last year unexpectedly, Biden and other candidates didn't run, and eventually his numbers started going up. If he had an actual game plan he would have spent some time in the south early last year introducing himself. You've got to do well with African Americans and Hispanics to win...and more and more it's clear his camp didn't believe that, or didn't care. It's too late to play catch up.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with you at all. My thought is just hwo freaking terrible it looks. To basically admit "Ya, the largest, mot important voting block in the Democratic primary doesn't support me so eff trying anymore" is just a terrible, terrible look.

If Bernie was serious about this, he should have been working with southern AAs for a few years. There was no reason he couldn't have done a few listening tours in the early part of last year. Build those connections outside the announced time he was a candidate. He didn't do that.

I also agree that he benefited greatly from being "not Clinton," in that someone was always going to be able to take 30%ish percentage of the vote against her. (Nationally not state by state.) His message caught on enough that he did a bit better. Had there been another viable candidate, he wouldn't have done much better than 20ish percent nationally, I don't think.

Did anyone share the NJ poll I just saw?

Hillary 55%
Bernie 32%

Trump 38%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 10%
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
I still can't believe this year's general election is gonna be Hillary Clinton vs fuckin' Donald Trump. Like, that's just insane on so many levels.
 
T

thefro

Member
QuiteWhittle said:
This won't hurt them at all. Republicans have only been rewarded after their obstructionism, not punished. Why should I believe this time will be any different?
Click to expand...

Well Donald Trump's going to be the Republican nominee unless something changes massively in the next 3 weeks.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
OmniOne said:
It's like they want to lose their majority?
Click to expand...
"The Court is more important than the Senate" is what some conservatives are starting to rally around.

Apparently unaware that whoever controls the Senate will likely be the same party as the next president and therefore will control the Court too...
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
Can't wait for the inevitable general election polls to come in and states start to turn red:

NJ: 43 Trump 42 Clinton
GAF: too early! Blah blah blah
NJ: 46 43 Clinton
GAF: biased! Margin of error!
NJ: 51 Trump 43 Clinton
GAF: New Jersey is full of racists! Idiots! They elected Chris Christie! Hillary still has her firewall!
General election: Trump is nominated
GAF: this country sucks! I'm moving to Canada!
 
G

Gruco

Banned
adam387 said:
Did anyone share the NJ poll I just saw?

Hillary 55%
Bernie 32%

Trump 38%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 10%
Click to expand...

Reminder: Wasserman's "delegate path" projections have NJ as a winner take all must win for Rubio. Their rosy path for Trump has him getting zero delegates here.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
adam387 said:
Did anyone share the NJ poll I just saw?

Hillary 55%
Bernie 32%

Trump 38%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 10%
Click to expand...

What pollster is this? Link?

Gruco said:
Reminder: Wasserman's "delegate path" projections have NJ as a winner take all must win for Rubio. Their rosy path for Trump has him getting zero delegates here.
Click to expand...
Rubio is a poor fit for NJ Republicans. Even 1v1 Trump would win here.

vicissitudes said:
Can't wait for the inevitable general election polls to come in and states start to turn red:

NJ: 43 Trump 42 Clinton
GAF: too early! Blah blah blah
NJ: 46 43 Clinton
GAF: biased! Margin of error!
NJ: 51 Trump 43 Clinton
GAF: New Jersey is full of racists! Idiots! They elected Chris Christie! Hillary still has her firewall!
General election: Trump is nominated
GAF: this country sucks! I'm moving to Canada!
Click to expand...
No, NJ Gaf will point out NJ's demographics and laugh at the idea of Trump winning the state in the GE.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
vicissitudes said:
Can't wait for the inevitable general election polls to come in and states start to turn red:

NJ: 43 Trump 42 Clinton
GAF: too early! Blah blah blah
NJ: 46 43 Clinton
GAF: biased! Margin of error!
NJ: 51 Trump 43 Clinton
GAF: New Jersey is full of racists! Idiots! They elected Chris Christie! Hillary still has her firewall!
General election: Trump is nominated
GAF: this country sucks! I'm moving to Canada!
Click to expand...
lol are you high
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
vicissitudes said:
Can't wait for the inevitable general election polls to come in and states start to turn red:

NJ: 43 Trump 42 Clinton
GAF: too early! Blah blah blah
NJ: 46 43 Clinton
GAF: biased! Margin of error!
NJ: 51 Trump 43 Clinton
GAF: New Jersey is full of racists! Idiots! They elected Chris Christie! Hillary still has her firewall!
General election: Trump is nominated
GAF: this country sucks! I'm moving to Canada!
Click to expand...

Dude, are you OK? You don't seem OK.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
vicissitudes said:
Can't wait for the inevitable general election polls to come in and states start to turn red:

NJ: 43 Trump 42 Clinton
GAF: too early! Blah blah blah
NJ: 46 43 Clinton
GAF: biased! Margin of error!
NJ: 51 Trump 43 Clinton
GAF: New Jersey is full of racists! Idiots! They elected Chris Christie! Hillary still has her firewall!
General election: Trump is nominated
GAF: this country sucks! I'm moving to Canada!
Click to expand...

New Jersey of all states?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
vicissitudes said:
Can't wait for the inevitable general election polls to come in and states start to turn red:

NJ: 43 Trump 42 Clinton
GAF: too early! Blah blah blah
NJ: 46 43 Clinton
GAF: biased! Margin of error!
NJ: 51 Trump 43 Clinton
GAF: New Jersey is full of racists! Idiots! They elected Chris Christie! Hillary still has her firewall!
General election: Trump is nominated
GAF: this country sucks! I'm moving to Canada!
Click to expand...
Saving this post.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
I think I'll have to blow my head off once 101.5 starts doing full-on Trump cheerleading. It's already insufferable listening to NY area AM talk radio.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Can we discuss some random UK politics here too?

Because, this shit was funny

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCbWLeJ35cA
Click to expand...
Say what you want about the Democratic Party

Let's thank our lucky stars that it isn't anything like the sad sack of crap that Labour has become.

People say Hillary is a lame/boring candidate. Pretty sure our British liberal friends would eat their own head to get a candidate like her on their side at this point
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
OmniOne said:
Weaver just said on MSNBC that winning NV was never a part of the plan to win the nomination.


wut?
Click to expand...

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/bernie-sanders-had-no-plan-for-losing-nevada.html

Alex Seitz-Wald reports that Sanders genuinely believes it. Sanders, reports Seitz-Wald, “wanted a win so badly in Nevada that he never wrote a concession speech, according to aides, and the night before the caucuses he said that historians would mark Nevada as the beginning of his promised political revolution.”
Click to expand...
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Holmes said:
http://www.coloradodems.org/action/caucus-2016

For the Colorado caucuses:

- No same day voter registration at the door.
- Need to have registered as a Democrat by January 4th, 2016.
- No 17 year olds allowed. Need to have turned 18 two months before March 1st to participate.

Even in Sanders' best state of New Hampshire, Democratic voters were essentially tied between he and Clinton when he won by over 20%. It's not going to be a blowout. Clinton also has a good ground game in the state now too.
Click to expand...

Ooh, that registration date can hurt Sanders.
 
Z

Zona

Member
sphagnum said:
I think I'll have to blow my head off once 101.5 starts doing full-on Trump cheerleading. It's already insufferable listening to NY area AM talk radio.
Click to expand...

Why are you doing that to yourself? After growing up having to listen to talk radio every car ride I have limbs I'd rather lose then willingly tune in to it again. Hell, I can only imagine it's gotten worse since the days of Bob Grant.
 
O

OmniOne

Member
B-Dubs said:
Damn, talk about a gut punch. Dude took a body blow and never even bothered to brace for it.

This is why you always write a concession speech, you never want to temp the guy high atop the thing.
Click to expand...


Sanders is a smart guy, how is he not seeing the same data everyone else is seeing? Weaver and Co. are really pulling him along in a boondoggle.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
adam387 said:
http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgers-eagleton-2016-presidential-election-Feb2016/

There you go friend. :)
Click to expand...

Thanks.

Rubio's favorables are worse than Trump's with Republicans.
But Trump’s ratings specifically among Republican voters are solid, far surpassing his competition’s. Fifty-eight percent of Republicans are favorable toward Trump (30 percent are unfavorable), compared to 40 percent who say the same about Rubio (27 percent unfavorable), and 31 percent who say the same about Cruz (38 percent unfavorable)
Click to expand...
It's strange to see a state where Trump has the best favorables in party.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
too bad for Sanders that the primary ends a week from today if her leads hold.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9274

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 17m17 minutes ago
Here's why Hillary Clinton could effectively end Bernie Sanders' chances in a week's time:

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 15m15 minutes ago
If Hillary's pattern of support holds thru 3/1, Bernie would need 58% of remaining delegates just to pull even:
Click to expand...


Clinton's strong performance in Latino and African-American precincts in Nevada corroborates the findings of a February NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll that shows Clinton leading Sanders 73 percent to 23 percent among African-Americans and 56 percent to 39 percent among Latinos. If those margins were to translate into votes in South Carolina and elsewhere, we estimate Clinton would win 496 pledged delegates between now and March 1, to just 422 for Sanders.

And, if Clinton were to claim a delegate lead of 996 to 492 out of Super Tuesday, that would mean Sanders would need to win 58 percent of the remaining delegates available just to break even. That would be nearly impossible, because unlike on the Republican side, there are no "winner-take-all" Democratic primaries at any point on the calendar. Moreover, demographically and ideologically, two of Sanders's best states - Iowa and New Hampshire - have already voted.
Click to expand...
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
"The Court is more important than the Senate" is what some conservatives are starting to rally around.

Apparently unaware that whoever controls the Senate will likely be the same party as the next president and therefore will control the Court too...
Click to expand...

It'll be poetic justice when Hillary the She-Bitch - the HildeBeast - the Butcher of Benghazi - the one they've spent a quarter-century demonizing - is the one to put a nail in the GOP's judicial coffin. The meltdowns.. take November 2012 and King and Obergefell and combine them all.

Macho Madness said:
Hope the LA poligaffers are okay.
Click to expand...

Thanks! So far, so good. One tornado hit within 5 miles of my parents' house and gave us all a god scare, but we're lucky so far..
 
U

User 463088

Banned
OmniOne said:
Sanders is a smart guy, how is he not seeing the same data everyone else is seeing? Weaver and Co. are really pulling him along in a boondoggle.
Click to expand...

I mean.....don't anyone take this wrong, but he's definitely been drinking his own Kool Aide. I genuinely do not thing he understands that he has a demographic problem. I mean, I think a lot of this illustrates some of the things Barney Frank has said about him. Bernie is not wrong or out of touch, it's everyone else who doesn't immediately agree with him who is the problem. They've all been bought out or corrupted by someone or something.

There will be no reality in which Bernie failed to win the primary, only the voters failed Bernie.
 
H

Holmes

Member
vicissitudes said:
Can't wait for the inevitable general election polls to come in and states start to turn red:

NJ: 43 Trump 42 Clinton
GAF: too early! Blah blah blah
NJ: 46 43 Clinton
GAF: biased! Margin of error!
NJ: 51 Trump 43 Clinton
GAF: New Jersey is full of racists! Idiots! They elected Chris Christie! Hillary still has her firewall!
General election: Trump is nominated
GAF: this country sucks! I'm moving to Canada!
Click to expand...
Haha
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Cruz finally hitting out at Trump now... That GOP debate is gonna be a massacre and Cruz isn't gonna go down without a fight.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Zona said:
Why are you doing that to yourself? After growing up having to listen to talk radio every car ride I have limbs I'd rather lose then willingly tune in to it again. Hell, I can only imagine it's gotten worse since the days of Bob Grant.
Click to expand...

It's one of those train wreck things. I have an old car that doesn't have a CD player, I don't have a smart phone, lost my old ipod somewhere, so I listen to the radio. Sometimes I listen to 103.3 (when I worked morning shift especially since that's when the classical music is on), sometimes I'll put it on classic rock, don't like most of what's on PST, but when I get bored I flip to talk radio to listen to what the circus has to say.

I used to spend wayyy too much time listening to Hannity and Levin since I had a long commute. Some days I just want to strangle Curtis Sliwa. The only thing I can actually say that I enjoy listening to is John Batchelor since his show can be very interesting when it's focusing on history or space exploration (outside of Don Black constantly shitting on NASA) instead of current events.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Brinbe said:
Cruz finally hitting out at Trump now... That GOP debate is gonna be a massacre and Cruz isn't gonna go down without a fight.
Click to expand...

Dude needs to hit Marco Rubitron or he risks turning into the new Jeb as Trump just shits all over him debate after debate.
 
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