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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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U

User 463088

Banned
JesseEwiak said:
I think she's somewhere in the middle of Hillary and Warren. Hillary has the Clinton Nostalgia, being Obama's designated successor, and all of her experience to win over swing voters.

OTOH, Warren doesn't have the SOS credentials (and that could possibly hurt her if the GOP put up a non-crazy person on foreign policy), or the long time experience, but in many ways, she has a better story than Clinton and can put forth Bernie's ideas without the stridency. She sounds like your older aunt or grandma whose talking common sense instead of the crazy uncle who lives in the one room apartment stuffed with old copies of the Worker's Daily.
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Firstly, I apologize for the typos in my last post. I guess Vicodin makes me weirder than I thought hahaha.

Anyway, I think that Warren would have done better than Hillary. I think she could have gotten a lot more Democratic support than Bernie has. I'm not sure it would have been enough to take out Hillary, but still...probably better than Bernie.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Holmes said:
H.A. Goodman is probably the stupidest person alive.
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He might have competition in Doug Feith though:
After 9/11 Rumsfeld moved Cambone over to work on war planning and intelligence as Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, where he labored under the neo-con luminary Douglas Feith. There’s reason to believe that Cambone’s real mission was to keep tabs on Feith, a notorious hothead and Cheney loyalist whom Rumsfeld distrusts. Rumsfeld wasn’t the only one who loathed Feith. Gen. Tommy Franks, who commanded the Afghan and Iraq wars, told Woodward that Feith was “the stupidest motherfucker on the face of the Earth”.
Click to expand...
 
U

UltimaPooh

Member
adam387 said:
Firstly, I apologize for the typos in my last post. I guess Vicodin makes me weirder than I thought hahaha.

Anyway, I think that Warren would have done better than Hillary. I think she could have gotten a lot more Democratic support than Bernie has. I'm not sure it would have been enough to take out Hillary, but still...probably better than Bernie.
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I don't think she would have done much better than Bernie. She's pretty narrow focused in what she wants to accomplish.

She would have floundered just like Bernie did when it came to discussing minorities and foreign policy.
 
K

Kangi

Member
The biggest downside to Bernie's age is that it means he won't run again. Otherwise he could do the Hillary thing of "runner-up stays popular until 8 years later then becomes the frontrunner".

And no, we're not electing an 82-year-old man in 2024.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
UltimaPooh said:
I don't think she would have done much better than Bernie. She's pretty narrow focused in what she wants to accomplish.

She would have floundered just like Bernie did when it came to discussing minorities and foreign policy.
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She has a lot more built in support in the party though, she wouldn't be coming in fresh with little to no party connections.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
UltimaPooh said:
I don't think she would have done much better than Bernie. She's pretty narrow focused in what she wants to accomplish.

She would have floundered just like Bernie did when it came to discussing minorities and foreign policy.
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True, however, I think the party support would help on some of that stuff. I doubt she'd be this far behind in Supers, for example. I also think she's savvy enough to know that she would need to have a foreign policy team in place before now.

I agree, the minority issue would have been her problem. But, let's be honest, I'm not sure how much worse she would have done than Bernie did.
 
C

Cerium

Member
UltimaPooh said:
I don't think it's too old.

The job is pretty damn tough and it ages people radically, I'll give you that.

Hilary is way past retirement age... is she too old?
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Hillary is borderline, just like Reagan. It'd be nice if we had someone younger who had a great shot, but we don't.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Kyosaiga said:
Obama tapping into his Frank Underwood like schemes
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The thing that keeps getting me is that Obama's traps haven't even been that good. All his plans have counted on the GOP being utter bastards, if they were able to dig their heads out of their asses for even a second they could avoid these traps.

Obama's been hitting them with the political equivalent of this:

batman_tells_his_gambit_6556.jpg


and they keep falling for it!
 
C

Cerium

Member
Cerium's PredictIt Tips:

The new Texas polls have dropped Cruz to almost 50 cents on PredictIt.

I just put $90 on him there. I don't see him losing Texas.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Xisiqomelir said:
I'd like to discuss Trump in New York, as per this article.

Results for the 2014 gubernatorial election:

480px-New_York_Governor_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2014.svg.png
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No, Trump will never win New York in a general election. It won't happen. Have you seen what the local papers throw on their front pages in regard to him?

daily%20news%20brain%20dead.jpg
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The city and it's suburbs will rise up and burn the state down before letting him win.

He will not win, even thinking about it is a waste of brain cells.
 
Xisiqomelir

Xisiqomelir

Member
B-Dubs said:
No, Trump will never win New York in a general election. It won't happen. Have you seen what the local papers throw on their front pages in regard to him?

The city and it's suburbs will rise up and burn the state down before letting him win.
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Remember that Governor Andrew Cuomo actually lost the vote in upstate New York in 2014. And he didn’t lose by a little, either. It was a wipe out. In fact he only carried eleven of the state’s 57 counties outside of the Big Apple. He still won the election, but it was a much narrower victory than the Democrats were used to enjoying and virtually all of his support came out of New York City.

Let’s put that in perspective here. Keep in mind that Trump wouldn’t actually have to win in New York City to pull this off. Cuomo’s total margin of victory was 54% and almost all of it came from the five boroughs. Trump would only need to tip the scales in the city enough to offset that 5% margin needed to swing the statewide vote because he’ll carry upstate in a landslide. (And he’s already very strong on Long Island.)
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I'd argue that a 58 EV swing is worth considering. NY is the smaller of the 2 main Dem bastions in the Electoral College, but its loss would be significant.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Xisiqomelir said:
I'd argue that a 58 EV swing is worth considering. NY is the smaller of the 2 main Dem bastions in the Electoral College, but its loss would be significant.
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That entire quote ignores all of the context surrounding Cuomo's reelection in order to make a point. Anyone saying Trump can win the state, especially against Hillary Clinton, is a damn fool and should be ignored.
 
C

Cerium

Member
The general election will hinge on the black vote. Trump's people have all but telegraphed that swinging a tiny portion of the black vote will be their strategy. They'd only need like 15% or even less with high Republican turnout.

If they can swing that, they can put New York in play, but Hillary would have bigger problems across the board.
 
T

thcsquad

Member
Xisiqomelir said:
I'd like to discuss Trump in New York, as per this article.

Results for the 2014 gubernatorial election:

480px-New_York_Governor_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2014.svg.png
Click to expand...

Gotta love those rural blue counties emanating from Vermont in the Northeast.

Massachusetts is the same way; political lean is largely a function of population density, except for the parts adjacent to Vermont. Rural as hell, liberal as hell.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Reddit seems to be rapidly moving towards trump. /r/the_donald has gotten 15,000+ subscribers in the past 4 days and is the fastest growing non default subreddit by far. I wouldn't be surprised if by super tuesday it has 50,000 subscribers.

If that happens this will be the only place on the internet i frequent that isn't pro trump... im scared.
 
C

Cerium

Member
Chezzymann said:
Reddit seems to be rapidly moving towards trump. /r/the_donald has gotten 15,000+ subscribers in the past 4 days and is the fastest growing non default subreddit by far. I wouldn't be surprised if by super tuesday it has 50,000 subscribers.

If that happens this will be the only place on the internet i frequent that isn't pro trump... im scared.
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It's going to get a huge bump when Sanders drops out. Brace yourself.
 
R

royalan

Member
Macho Madness said:
http://youtu.be/Xd22I12jY7c

Not a good look. I don't know how you don't have a good answer for that.
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Hillary needs to tread very carefully here. Hillary's done a lot of good work to shore up the black vote, but if she handles this sloppily, or tries to ignore it, that could be bad.

If I were in Hillary's camp, I'd encourage her to release a statement clarifying her comments back then. A lot of Hillary's black supporters are older, and remember very well the climate of the 90s. A LOT of people were calling for tough-on-crime reforms (not at the time realizing how disproportionately they would effect our communities, but still). There's a good way to clarify her statement here. Heck, she seemed prepared to answer the girl's question if she hadn't kept talking.
 
B

BoboBrazil

Member
royalan said:
Hillary needs to tread very carefully here. Hillary's done a lot of good work to shore up the black vote, but if she handles this sloppily, or tries to ignore it, that could be bad.

If I were in Hillary's camp, I'd encourage her to release a statement clarifying her comments back then. A lot of Hillary's black supporters are older, and remember very well the climate of the 90s. A LOT of people were calling for tough-on-crime reforms (not at the time realizing how disproportionately they would effect our communities, but still). There's a good way to clarify her statement here. Heck, she seemed prepared to answer the girl's question if she hadn't kept talking.
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The girl in the video was wrong. She didn't call black people super predators. She called gang members super predators. It was during a time when violence and drug use was spiraling out of control.
 
R

royalan

Member
BoboBrazil said:
The girl in the video was wrong. She didn't call black people super predators. She called gang members super predators.
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Exactly.

But that's not stopping a lot of young people from echoing that Hillary Clinton called all black men Superpredators.

Fortunately, a lot of Hillary's black support is older, and remembers the 90s. Particularly the early 90s.
 
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