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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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D

docbon

Member
Diablos said:
Except there's this BLM video of Hillary throwing out a protester! HILLARY IS SO RUDE! I I CAN'T TRUST HER! WE HAVE THE FACTS ON OUR SIDE AND WE'RE VOTING FOR NOTHING
BERNIE
! LET'S MAKE A LOT OF NOISE ONLINE BECAUSE WHY NOT! MAYBE WE CAN RUIN HER TO THE POINT WHERE TRUMP OR RUBIO ARE PRESIDENT AND WE JUST END UP HURTING THE POOR AND MINORITIES EVEN MORE! BRILLIANT!

I am really starting to worry for the safety of politicians when BLM protesters come around. No, I am not racist. But the hatred that goes along with these kinds of videos when they are posted has to be inspiring someone with violent tendencies out there to finally want to act on his or her urges.

The way some of these people form a basis for their argument is so out of touch with reality, it's like they just learned about the concept of debating someone or protesting 2 weeks ago. It's pathetic and sad.
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hjUieyE.gif


Everything's gonna be fine, broseph.

Maybe.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
You know some of you make it reaaallly tempting to go back through and find your reactions to Bernie's event getting crashed by BLM protestors and repost them compared to your reactions when it happened to Hillary.

Black Republican said:
Florida
Rubio
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Carson

believe!
Click to expand...

And let the page of cartoon_soldier diablosing and Diaoblos cartoon_soldiering commence.
 
Tesseract

Tesseract

Banned
i think it's a huge mistake bernie ain't using a full live social media crew, cameras and all (down periscopes). he's gonna lose because his millennial crew ain't dank enough. hire more cool people, where's that joe rogan interview, the breakfast club ...
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
There's no CLINTON: OTHER ISSUES MORE IMPORTANT THAN BLACK LIVES headline on Politico yet. Disappointed.
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It's early but this story has so far appeared literally nowhere except a sub-head on Drudge. I had the news on all morning too. I wouldn't have heard about it yet if I wasn't reading this thread.

Clinton probably owes a fruit basket to the RNC for the Trumpening tonight.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Anyway, in regards to people talking about the ethics and how right or wrong she handled the situation or how she handled it in comparison to others.. I don't think any of that matters regarding Hillary and her campaign.

I don't care if this girl was being was doing anything that can be considered "rude". Hillary should have dropped the microphone and taken her out to Olive Garden or something. Having a good relationship with that girl and other BLM protesters like her are more important to her specifically than pleasing whoever the heck else she was talking to at that event. If it wasn't for minorities getting behind Hillary in the extremely high numbers they have been, she would be sunk and Bernie may very well have been able to beat her. Black voters who care about the issues BLM raises are the really one of the only reasons why her only opponent mathmatically cannot over come her. Doing anything to damage that relationship would be wrong for anyone, but especially stupid for her to do
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
5. For the front runners, winning Florida probably ends it for one main reason: money. Momentum isn't talked about enough in Presidential primaries, not only for how it sets the narrative, but also for its impact on resources. By the time the campaigns get this far, they are largely running on hard dollar fumes, having raised their "easy" money long ago. For both parties, outside of some caucuses and an early April primary in Wisconsin, the next set of primaries is at the end of April, and in some expensive states. If you aren't winning by March 15 with a shot at the nomination, you aren't raising any money. And if you aren't raising money, you can't feed the beasts required to compete in multiple expensive states a full month later. Momentum = Money.

I am working on deeper dives into both party contests, which I'll release next week, but needless to say, for the Democrats, this is likely the day that ends Sanders (if it doesn't before), and for Rubio, a loss will also almost surely mean the end.

For Sanders, like in so many other states, demographics are his biggest enemy. Florida is both older and more diverse than most states, two things that bode well for Clinton.

For Rubio - who I continue to contend is the one guy my party really doesn't want to face, the enemy is history. Florida has played the role of validating state for Republicans, and right now, the most recent state polling isn't too far off the national polls, and in fact has shown a slightly higher "ceiling" for Trump. For Rubio, he either needs to make something really happen in the next two weeks, or buck 60 years of history.
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2. For Republicans, Florida is exceptionally accurate when it comes to choosing the nominee. Every GOP nominee has won Florida since the state started holding primaries in 1956. When it comes to Democrats, the record is the opposite - most have lost Florida, most recently in 2008 when the state voted for Clinton, not the eventual nominee Barack Obama. I strongly suspect that Hillary Clinton will buck this trend, win Florida and win the nomination.
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http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/2/24/2016-florida-primary-marco-rubio-vs-history.html
 
E

Effect

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
It's early but this story has so far appeared literally nowhere except a sub-head on Drudge. I had the news on all morning too. I wouldn't have heard about it yet if I wasn't reading this thread.

Clinton probably owes a fruit basket to the RNC for the Trumpening tonight.
Click to expand...

Might be because it's just another BLM abusing and the media is likely tired of it. This is perhaps the worst part of those apart of BLM. Far to many independent people just want to make a scene. While their intention might be to bright awareness to certain things how they go about it is largely counterproductive at times. Those that have independently taken up this banner have wasted so much goodwill. Many of these issues are important to me but I've largely begun tune crap like this out.

You paid to get into a private meeting. Why act like this when you could have easily let her speak and actually have gotten a chance to ask her something one on one or just in a group setting. Actually get a honest and real answer. No that wasn't the point. The point was to make a scene and get kicked out so you'd have something to use. That's the BS that needs stop and I can't support.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
Anyway, in regards to people talking about the ethics and how right or wrong she handled the situation or how she handled it in comparison to others.. I don't think any of that matters regarding Hillary and her campaign.

I don't care if this girl was being was doing anything that can be considered "rude". Hillary should have dropped the microphone and taken her out to Olive Garden or something. Having a good relationship with that girl and other BLM protesters like her are more important to her specifically than pleasing whoever the heck else she was talking to at that event. If it wasn't for minorities getting behind Hillary in the extremely high numbers they have been, she would be sunk and Bernie may very well have been able to beat her. Black voters who care about the issues BLM raises are the really one of the only reasons why her only opponent mathmatically cannot over come her. Doing anything to damage that relationship would be wrong for anyone, but especially stupid for her to do
Click to expand...

Agreed.

I think back to how Hillary handled BLM a year ago, when she met with the group backstage and just let them unload and really had a good conversation. Granted, a protest is not going to be as cordial, but I feel like the principle is the same here. Again, Hillary didn't really do anything wrong (I can't imagine how I'd react doing multiple events, day after day, and ending with a fundraiser where you are protested at), but the optics of her getting flippant in some wealthy mansion while the white crowd hisses in the background just LOOKS bad and regardless of the durability of Clinton's support with the African American community, bad optics are not what she needs at all in this campaign especially from the one group that is propelling her to a primary win.

That being said, I can't wait for the FL poll. Here's to hoping for a YUUGE Trump lead.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Veritigo_X said:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1189640



"Trump will win unless he is stopped."

Brilliant analysis.
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Well its true, Trump is the likely nominee. However there is no way yet to be sure that if the RNC can get Cruz and co out of this post-Super Tuesday that Rubio will not start dominating by not splitting the non-Trump vote. It's a unlikely scenario but one that can't be completely dismissed until there is an actual real world scenario of what happens if its Trump vs. Rubio one on one.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Cheebo said:
Well its true, Trump is the likely nominee. However there is no way yet to be sure that if the RNC can get Cruz and co out of this post-Super Tuesday that Rubio will not start dominating by not splitting the non-Trump vote. It's a unlikely scenario but one that can't be completely dismissed until there is an actual real world scenario of what happens if its Trump vs. Rubio one on one.
Click to expand...

There's always the danger that even if Rubio does start pulling ahead that he malfunctions again at a critical point. I suspect that's why Kasich's hanging around.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Bowdz said:
Agreed.

I think back to how Hillary handled BLM a year ago, when she met with the group backstage and just let them unload and really had a good conversation. Granted, a protest is not going to be as cordial, but I feel like the principle is the same here. Again, Hillary didn't really do anything wrong (I can't imagine how I'd react doing multiple events, day after day, and ending with a fundraiser where you are protested at), but the optics of her getting flippant in some wealthy mansion while the white crowd hisses in the background just LOOKS bad and regardless of the durability of Clinton's support with the African American community, bad optics are not what she needs at all in this campaign especially from the one group that is propelling her to a primary win.

That being said, I can't wait for the FL poll. Here's to hoping for a YUUGE Trump lead.
Click to expand...

Two coming. One today from Quinnipac and one from PPP later this week.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Elaugaufein said:
You know some of you make it reaaallly tempting to go back through and find your reactions to Bernie's event getting crashed by BLM protestors and repost them compared to your reactions when it happened to Hillary.



And let the page of cartoon_soldier diablosing and Diaoblos cartoon_soldiering commence.
Click to expand...

For a Quinnipac poll? They are like the worst ones right now lol.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
Eh, he just means he thinks it's still not as inevitable as the consensus is.
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Cheebo said:
Well its true, Trump is the likely nominee. However there is no way yet to be sure that if the RNC can get Cruz and co out of this post-Super Tuesday that Rubio will not start dominating by not splitting the non-Trump vote. It's a unlikely scenario but one that can't be completely dismissed until there is an actual real world scenario of what happens if its Trump vs. Rubio one on one.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that tweet reads a little better with the one right before posted.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 29m29 minutes ago
The average state poll conducted since South Carolina has Trump at 30.7%. Not much sign of momentum/consolidation yet.
Click to expand...

On its own it just seemed kinda obvious, but maybe it needs to be said with everyone freaking out about Trump lately.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Suikoguy said:
Closest to my view with a few caveats.
Even though the political climate demanded it, that did not make it right at the time. Additionally, the situation in the video could have been handled better.
Lastly, that comes really close to coded BS language that we should avoid.

As mentioned already, the narrative is switching to drug abuse treatment rather then incarceration, so with time this will become a non-issue simply because as policy changes show results, the changes will continue.
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Politicians are basically taught to get out of those situations as quickly as possible. She did what her advisors wanted her to do - make a joke of it, get the crowd involved, and move on. Interestingly Obama used to be pretty bad at that. He'd try his hardest to show some interest in the protestor's point, try to have a conversation, etc. But after awhile he learned that it's simply best to dismiss the person and move on. Any political damage will be minimal. In this case the people sympathetic to anti-Clinton views are going to slam her no matter what she did. Some people will complain in Twitter, someone might write a think piece on it, then everyone that matters moves on.

I agree with your second point, public pressure didn't justify what democrats did in the 90s. It's just worth noting that the bill came about in large part due to that pressure, and likewise the movement we're seeing now is because the pressure has shifted. My fear is that the bipartisan support for criminal justice reform is going to die due to the brewing police/law and order debate. The republican base is becoming less supportive of reform as democrats are painted as anti-police, racist, supporters of BLM, etc. These reforms will be one of the last legislative pushes Obama does, and I wouldn't be shocked if republicans make it ugly. The laughable response to Beyonce's Super Bowl performance seems like a sign of things to come.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
Pretty damned yuuuge. All Rubio needs is for everyone else to drop out and get around 80% of their voters:

Quinnipiac poll of Florida (LVs):
Trump 44%
Rubio 28%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 7%
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It's Q, but damn.. I really want to believe.

This would certainly be a knockout blow. The race would essentially be over; there's no recovering from that kind of loss at home. Forget the numbers.. optics-wise, it'd look horrible, and it would give Trump an obvious angle of mockery.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Teflon Fon stays winning. Let's hope he has a solid performance tonight. It will truly be a glorious battle worthy of Kahless. Qapla!
 
H

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
shinra-bansho said:
I doubt whatever Sanders has to return or transfer to a General Election fund is particularly significant.

Anyway, this is a summary of January campaign financials for the remaining candidates. As well as Jeb!'s for fun.
Code: 
			Raised	Spent	Cash	Spent/Raised
Bernie Sanders		21.3	34.9	14.7	163.85%
Hillary Clinton		14.9	19.9	32.9	133.56%
Ted Cruz		7.6	12.7	13.6	167.11%
Donald Trump		6.1	11.5	1.6	188.52%
[B]Marco Rubio		4.9	10.3	5.1	210.20%[/B]
Ben Carson		3.8	6.2	4.1	163.16%
John Kasich		1.1	2.1	1.5	190.91%
				
Jeb Bush		1.6	6.3	2.9	393.75%
Right to Rise		0.4	34.5	24.4	8625.00%

I wonder if Rubio's emerging cash flow problem has been alleviated now.

This is for end of Jan filings. They probably spent it all in Feb. Because they're stupid.
Click to expand...

So this is the real tickle down economics?
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Officerrob said:
Where are these polls that show Rubio beating Trump 1 on 1?
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He would have carried South Carolina (by like ~1%) if everyone dropped out and votes were reassigned based on the last poll on 2nd choice. But Cruz dropping out is the one that helps him least (Cruz's people split like 55/45 in Rubio's favour with the rest going to Trump) , what he reallly wants is for Kasich to drop out which goes almost purely to him.
 
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