Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Trump is clearly a miser. He won't spend a dime that doesn't have to be spent.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
- Thread starter Makai
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Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Does Trump actually want to be president?
SenorArdilla
Member
Maybe he should get his volunteers to foot the bill.
He's below Kasich, which is bad (and Nate says they see tons of activity at Kasich HQ, leading them to think this isn't wrong.)
Someone mentioned earlier in the week that Rubio's campaign was reminding them of John Edwards, in that the staff seemed like they were just waiting for the other shoe to drop. Certainly makes more sense now.
It pretty obvious that he doesn't really give a shit either way. I mean we all knew he was a joke candidate, so this shouldn't be surprising.
Gonna go ahead and say Cruz first, Rubio second, Trump 3rd, and Jeb first
SenorArdilla
Member
I'm going off the assumption that most of Trump's support are loud but don't bother to vote.
Yoda
Member
Trump losing NH isn't going to happen. I do think if he has a weak margin of victory that people will question his momentum, and thus undermine his polling in the other states, which in turn could cost him points. He may be getting over-sampled in polls, but not by 15 points.
Fenderputty
Banned
His plan spends 14 trillion into the economy. 1 trillion right away into infrastructure which would basically be a massive jobs bill and what liberals have wanted from stimulus since 2008. I think it would clearly boost our output and growth. Not sure if it outpaces inflation enough that he hits 5% yearly though. I would imagine that's why his tax plan is so heavy though. Gotta destroy that deficit spending injection somehow.
I'm skeptical, but this is better than tax breaks cause infinite revenue budgeting bullshit Paul Ryan tries to pass off IMO.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
If Clinton thinks her digital marketing is the reason she's failing with the under 30s, she's even worse a campaigner than I thought.
RustyNails
Member
He did come in 2nd in Iowa without spending anything. That counts for something. Also Ted stole Ben Carson's delegates by spreading FUD. Who knows what could have happened if Ben Carson decided not to fly home to Florida to change his clothes.
AnotherNils
Member
I get the feeling Trump wants the presidency, but doesn't want to spend the money to get it. Damn it Trump!
Jeb! projected 4% yearly growth under his plan. It's a simple matter to get to 5% from there. Just 1 more percent.
It's not helping any and might be actively harming her.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
One thing I hope that Democrats aren't shy about in the general is that the post-2008 recovery has been one of the most Top-Down, pro-business, trickle-down recoveries ever.
Obama probably didn't intend for it to be this way, but it is. Democrats should embrace that he saved the economy but did so by saving big corporations. Most businesses are doing great, job growth is OK, but wages are stagnant. The wealth is not trickling down. It never was going to.
Obama probably didn't intend for it to be this way, but it is. Democrats should embrace that he saved the economy but did so by saving big corporations. Most businesses are doing great, job growth is OK, but wages are stagnant. The wealth is not trickling down. It never was going to.
UltimaPooh
Member
I hope Hilary wins... Just so we can move on from all these weirdo Hilary fans.
It's certainly not helping.
Inflation is also stagnant. This whole thing is weird/unprecedented.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Sanders doesn't have digital marketing in a conventional sense, though. The main resource people Googling Sanders come across is FeelTheBern.org (volunteer work), the main digital conference location is Reddit (not done by his campaign and mostly populated by enthusiasts), most of his digital artwork is fan-sourced, his Twitter account actually has less direct followers than Clinton and only dominates her because the amount of retweets from his followers is so high, and so on. Sanders doesn't dominate the internet because he has a good digital marketing team, he dominates the internet because he dominates the demographic that is the most frequent internet userbase and they enthusiastically amplify and contribute to his cause willingly with little or no direction from his campaign.
If Clinton thinks she can win over 18-45 year olds by having a better internet marketing focus, she's putting the cart before the horse. In fact, she might even make things worse if it means trying out things like "use three emojis to sum up your student debt" or when her campaign was trying to make that dreadful Yaas Queen meme work (it didn't). They come across as obviously patronizing.
User 463088
Banned
Trust me, just for you, I'll double down on the weird when she wins.
VendettaRed07
Member
Hillarys campaign has lost focus in order to damage control the attacks Bernie has set on her integrity.
Just brush it off and go back to the type of commercials and ads she had when she announced. Her first ad was by far her best.
Bill needs to stop going on the attack. How about he gloats about his record and how he helped the economy, created like what, 250k jobs a month and balanced the budget, etc. even with a republican congress at times. Say why Hillary is better suited to recreate that kind of success that he had.
A lot of kids have a lot of nostalgia for the nineties too. Play that shit up or something Ffs. Just be positive. People actually like them and are being overly defensive. They are letting Bernie get to them and not responding well. Stay focused
Just brush it off and go back to the type of commercials and ads she had when she announced. Her first ad was by far her best.
Bill needs to stop going on the attack. How about he gloats about his record and how he helped the economy, created like what, 250k jobs a month and balanced the budget, etc. even with a republican congress at times. Say why Hillary is better suited to recreate that kind of success that he had.
A lot of kids have a lot of nostalgia for the nineties too. Play that shit up or something Ffs. Just be positive. People actually like them and are being overly defensive. They are letting Bernie get to them and not responding well. Stay focused
RastaMentality
Banned
This sounds so robotic it's scary.
A lot of the demo going for Bernie have next to no memory of the 90's. They were kids when Bush was in office and teens when Obama was in-charge.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Clinton's team thinks she's losing the 30 and under vote to Bernie because her memes aren't dank enough? All Bernie's team does online is post quotes about his policy proposals overlayed on pictures of him. There's no social media wizardy at work there. If Hillary wants to win this demographic she has to reconsider her policies, not the way she advertises them online.
listening to conservative family members complain about how unfulfilling the average job is, how they are taken advantage of, and how those who are unemployed despite not searching for a new job say they "don't want another job unless its one that they love" is a struggle
a struggle to not shout "PULL YOURSELF UP BY YOUR BOOTSTRAPS" and call them lazy "welfare queens", as they are wont to do
they just can't seem to realize that the average person has emotions just like they do and the cognitive dissonance on display is becoming very frustrating
a struggle to not shout "PULL YOURSELF UP BY YOUR BOOTSTRAPS" and call them lazy "welfare queens", as they are wont to do
they just can't seem to realize that the average person has emotions just like they do and the cognitive dissonance on display is becoming very frustrating
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
Right. The whole 8 years of Obama's tenure have been the Fed trying to get companies to spend money via low interest rates. The problem is most of the recovered wealth has stayed at the top.
It might not be an optimal GE message, but really Democrats should say that we've been trying trickle down the last 8 years and that it's the Middle class' time now.
gutter_trash
Banned
if you take the burden off the employers as it pertains to healthcare, health insurance.....
think about it
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
On a different note, someone on another forum kindly pointed out that I had NH's delegate distribution wrong - it's split 8 each for the districts and then 8 by the state-wide vote, rather than just 12 between the two districts (they actually gave me a full resource for how each primary state does it, which is fun because trying to work out from state party documents is both tedious and not straightforward). So the bar Sanders needs to meet is a 12.5% lead, not an 8.3% one. On the other hand, that would probably net him 15-9 (going 5-3, 5-3, 5-3); so overall I think that's actually better for him than I initially thought because 15-9 is easier to get under this than under the two-district system I thought NH had and honestly if he doesn't take a 12.5% lead this race isn't worth talking about anyway.
Looking ahead to South Carolina, for those interested, I've noticed something I didn't expect at all. The delegates awarded are 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 9, 6 for the 1st, 2nd, ..., 7th South Carolina districts, and then 18 for the state. However, all four of the 5, 5, 5, 5 districts are actually majority white, even on the Democratic side - most of South Carolina's black voters are in the 6th district (SC's only Dem district under Clyburn). If Sanders does well with whites (something like 64-36 loss overall with a 55-45 win among white voters), it's quite plausible he could go 3/5, 3/5, 3/5, 3/5, 3/6, 3/9, 3/5 and then 6/18 for the state, thus coming out with 27 delegates to Clinton's 32. That would be an absolutely fantastic result for what you'd expect to be his second-worst state.
In other words, he has the opposite of the problem he did in Iowa - in SC, you'd expect his support to be finely distributed compared to Clinton's, and the system rewards spread over depth. Obama didn't have Clinton's problem because he mixed white liberals with blacks, but Clinton mixes white moderates with blacks, and Democrats in very Republican seats tend to be more ideological, not less and so Obama had a spread that Clinton doesn't - Clinton's white moderates are more likely to be in the same districts as what is currently her black firewall.
Looking ahead to South Carolina, for those interested, I've noticed something I didn't expect at all. The delegates awarded are 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 9, 6 for the 1st, 2nd, ..., 7th South Carolina districts, and then 18 for the state. However, all four of the 5, 5, 5, 5 districts are actually majority white, even on the Democratic side - most of South Carolina's black voters are in the 6th district (SC's only Dem district under Clyburn). If Sanders does well with whites (something like 64-36 loss overall with a 55-45 win among white voters), it's quite plausible he could go 3/5, 3/5, 3/5, 3/5, 3/6, 3/9, 3/5 and then 6/18 for the state, thus coming out with 27 delegates to Clinton's 32. That would be an absolutely fantastic result for what you'd expect to be his second-worst state.
In other words, he has the opposite of the problem he did in Iowa - in SC, you'd expect his support to be finely distributed compared to Clinton's, and the system rewards spread over depth. Obama didn't have Clinton's problem because he mixed white liberals with blacks, but Clinton mixes white moderates with blacks, and Democrats in very Republican seats tend to be more ideological, not less and so Obama had a spread that Clinton doesn't - Clinton's white moderates are more likely to be in the same districts as what is currently her black firewall.
disastermouse
Banned
So many of them to lose, too.
Falling back on 9-11 to defend Wall Street contributions was the first that stuck out. 'Artful smear' backfired. 'I'll consider it' re: speech transcripts.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
Bernie's running not for delegates, but against the narrative of Clinton being the nominee. If he can't change the narrative by Super Tuesday, he's toast.
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
Exactly, I hate how people are pushing this narrative. He legitimized his poll numbers when he got over 40,000 votes in a Iowa caucus system where he didn't even know what a ground game was.
In the eyes of the nordic countries, Hillary is a super conservative or a right-winger and Bernie is a centre-left-ish, maybe more centre-right-ish.
That's how far right US is.
Every single person Ive talked to in Noway supports Sanders, even the right-wingers.
Hillary is way better than a republican, but Hillary is too right-winged for my tastes.
So in the eyes of nordic countries, Hillary is not a progressive at all. So when people are talking about how progressive Hillary is I really hope it's just in the eyes of America.
That's how far right US is.
Every single person Ive talked to in Noway supports Sanders, even the right-wingers.
Hillary is way better than a republican, but Hillary is too right-winged for my tastes.
So in the eyes of nordic countries, Hillary is not a progressive at all. So when people are talking about how progressive Hillary is I really hope it's just in the eyes of America.
Fun little mindless quiz:
http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2016/politics/election-candidate-matchmaker/
http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2016/politics/election-candidate-matchmaker/
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Sure, but delegates are part of the narrative. If Clinton gets only 5 more delegates from her second best state, that changes the narrative.
vicissitudes
Banned
Needs more vines of Hillary chillin' in Cedar Rapids.
If delegates were part of the narrative, Bernie would have lost before voting started.
They're going to be releasing the vote totals, I guarantee you those will be what's up on CNN's big board as the top number everyone sees.
Yes, yes, we know, Norway this, Norway that.
You've been told this but clearly you're still a little behind: Bernie Sanders is running for US President, not for president of Norway. It doesn't matter if Hillary is too right wing for your taste or the taste of the people around you, or for the Nordic countries. What the candidates have to work for is the votes of Americans, and therefore what defines 'progressive' in this race are Americans.
So tell us what you know about the American primary battlefields, the American general election swing states, and the American population and political center.
VendettaRed07
Member
Right but it's probably a better tactic to win over some of the under 30s than they are currently deploying. I think Bill explaining the past problems and how he dealt with it will sit better with people who are too young to remember it
User 463088
Banned
It's really not part of the narrative to anyone outside those of us who love this shit. Hillary won Texas in 2008, yet technically lost because Obama got more delegates. That was not the story that was told.
If delegates were part of the narrative, this would be over, because Bernie has a (probably) insurmountable super delegate disadvantage.
I got Clinton, O'Malley and Sanders in that order.
User 463088
Banned
2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary - Trump 28%, Kasich 17% (Gravis Marketing/One America News 2/7)
1) 2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
Asked of 705 likely voters - republican
Jeb Bush (R) 14%
Ben Carson (R) 3%
Chris Christie (R) 6%
Ted Cruz (R) 11%
Carly Fiorina (R) 5%
John Kasich (R) 17%
Rand Paul (R) 1%
Marco Rubio (R) 15%
Rick Santorum (R) 1%
Donald Trump (R) 28%
1) 2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
Asked of 705 likely voters - republican
Jeb Bush (R) 14%
Ben Carson (R) 3%
Chris Christie (R) 6%
Ted Cruz (R) 11%
Carly Fiorina (R) 5%
John Kasich (R) 17%
Rand Paul (R) 1%
Marco Rubio (R) 15%
Rick Santorum (R) 1%
Donald Trump (R) 28%
Coriolanus
Banned
I actually bothered to go to his feed and read what he had posted recently to see if i had missed anything, but.... the dude limited himself to linking her article and pointing out that it isn't the first time she wrote on the topic. Then, according to the timelines, she took that as an attack. Which... i kinda don't get? He never said that her criticism should be dismissed because she had written about it previously.
Word.
Very common trait amongst wealthy individuals. Very rare trait amongst heirs. Quite fascinating that he has it.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
It's ridiculous because he talks about how under budget he is due to all that free advertising. Well anyone with a brain would realize that advertising money should then be allocated to ground game and GOTV operations.
cartoon_soldier
Member
2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary - Trump 28%, Kasich 17% (Gravis Marketing/One America News 2/7)
1) 2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
Asked of 705 likely voters - republican
Jeb Bush (R) 14%
Ben Carson (R) 3%
Chris Christie (R) 6%
Ted Cruz (R) 11%
Carly Fiorina (R) 5%
John Kasich (R) 17%
Rand Paul (R) 1%
Marco Rubio (R) 15%
Rick Santorum (R) 1%
Donald Trump (R) 28%
Nothing too bad for Rubio in that his support hasn't dropped
Retromelon
Member
Same, clearly rigged
I'mma have to fight you for Governor McAbs.
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