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[Iolo]

Exit polls are worse than throwing darts because darts don't pretend to mean anything.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Exit polls are worse than throwing darts because darts don't pretend to mean anything.

But darts get us to numbers

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The young vote will carry him over the top. Do you know what was the % of 65+ voters in 2008?

Not off the top of my head, I'd have to look it up. NH is a pretty damn old state, so.I'd guesstimate 25%.

 

[Allard]

that 58-41 is among voters 65+. His people are going to make up more of the electorate.

Sanders will still win, but we had polls with that age group where sanders and Hilary were neck and neck.

 

[ivysaur12]

The age distro will make a huge part of the electorate. Again, Bernie will win. I just don't know by how much anymore.

 

[Cheebo]

EDIT: no, misread. Still not good numbers, lot of the early polling had him neck and neck among 65+ in NH.

Early polling also had him up 20%. Recent polling had been 8-12% range.

 

[NeoXChaos]

The age distro will make a huge part of the electorate. Again, Bernie will win. I just don't know by how much anymore.

that will continue well into the primary season.

 

[Tesseract]

Exit polls are worse than throwing darts because darts don't pretend to mean anything.

just pretend it's a double slit test, become the one

become neogaf ~ john adams

 

[Y2Kev]

Dem

Voters wearing pants

72-28 Hillary

Gop

Muslims

99-1 for kasich

 

[Bowdz]

Just tuning in.

Is Trump the God King Emperor of the world yet?

 

[Holmes]

Roughly one in seven Democratic voters is younger than 30 in preliminary results, similar to recent years. They were a remarkably strong group for Sanders in Iowa, where he won 84 percent of caucus-goers younger than 30. On the other end, more than two in 10 voters are seniors, up from 13 percent in 2008, and Clinton’s best age group in Iowa.

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/voted-live-hampshire-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=36805930

 

[Iolo]

But darts get us to numbers

I have it on the authority of www.random.org that 16.

Make of that what you will.

edit: shit it's 18 now

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Yeah this is going to be baaad for Sanders.:x

 

[Y2Kev]

Why would young people want to live in New Hampshire? God I hate cold weather. I live in the nyc area and it's too cold. I'm moving to Miami where rubios parts are made.

 

[CCS]

Yeah this is going to be baaad for Sanders.:x

What are you thinking? I'm thinking 10-15% win, possibly 5% more if these are a bit out.

 

[Cheebo]

Yeah this is going to be baaad for Sanders.:x

How? It was a 10% race in recent polling. This is in line with that.

The delegate split won't be too large of a difference but sanders will win. That 25-30% margin was never going to hold as recent polling showed.

 

[Holmes]

Sanders by 10% is my guess.

Trump in low 30's, Kasich in high 10's. Rubio in low 10's.

 

[Black Mamba]

Yeah this is going to be baaad for Sanders.:x

Eh, Exit polls can be misleading. Especially early ones. Don't, old people often are retired and can vote earlier. Young people maybe working or in class and vote later or scattered.

I think it's more interesting to see the views than the age distributions right now cuz who knows what time certain groups are more likely to arrive at polls?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

What are you thinking? I'm thinking 10-15% win, possibly 5% more if these are a bit out.

9-12, I think. My poll aggregate says 16 but it doesn't look like the polls are right.

 

[Iolo]

Sanders will still win, but we had polls with that age group where sanders and Hilary were neck and neck.

I think that was a WMUR poll where Sanders was leading by 30%. He's probably not going to win by 30%.

 

[Cheebo]

9-12, I think. My poll aggregate says 16 but it doesn't look like the polls are right.

9-12 is very fitting with recent polls.

 

[RastaMentality]

I would watch a 2 hour documentary just showing how Priebus and the RNC reacts to this entire primary.

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

I AM SO ANXIOUS ALL I WANT TO BE IS GREAT AGAIN NOBODY IS GOING TO DRAG YOU UP TO THE LIGHT WHERE YOU BELONG. ACE OF BASE HAD BOOT STRAPS

 

[CCS]

9-12, I think. My poll aggregate says 16 but it doesn't look like the polls are right.

I guess we'll see, wouldn't put too much on these exit polls though.

 

[danm999]

Still guessing Sanders by 15. Though now I'm thinking 10ish might not be unlikely.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

9-12 is very fitting with recent polls.

No. They were very much scattered. You had Suffolk at 9, CNN at 27(?), and everything in between. Trust me, I put them all in by hand.

 

[Bronx-Man]

I'd say Sanders wins by about 12% percent.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I would watch a 2 hour documentary just showing how Priebus and the RNC reacts to this entire primary.

Reince be like "Fuck this, see you in hell assholes" and says his name backwards to return to his home dimension.

I'm gonna say Bernie wins by single digits.

 

[Cheebo]

No. They were very much scattered. You had Suffolk at 9, CNN at 27, and everything in between. Trust me, I put them all in by hand.

What delegate split are you predicting?

 

[Y2Kev]

9-12, I think. My poll aggregate says 16 but it doesn't look like the polls are right.

Exit polls are crap and are only enjoyed by fans of melissa McCarthy.

 

[Iolo]

I guess we'll see, wouldn't put too much on these exit polls though.

Seriously. Did people learn nothing from Iowa, where CBS entrance poll had Hillary up by over 10 points.

Old people tend to vote early in the day because they wake up at 4 am.

plus young people gonna storm the polls after seeing these exit results

 

[Teggy]

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/voted-live-hampshire-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=36805930

Why are you asking people to compare which is bigger, 1/7 or 2/10 ABC? You shouldn't have to do math to figure out what the report says.

 

[Black Mamba]

If Hillary finishes with like 45%, Sanders may as well take his ball and go home.

It would be hilarious if she won the state. Silver would have to write a long article about why he's wrong.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

What delegate split are you predicting?

I would think 14-10; that exit poll would point more to 13-11.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Sanders will still win, but we had polls with that age group where sanders and Hilary were neck and neck.

Would you say they showed a nearly dead

Spoiler

voter

heat?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Joy Reid is saying its going to get ugly in SC if NV goes poorly for Hillary, You will see a rallying of Democrats around Hillary to stop Bernie at all cost in SC.

 

[teruterubozu]

Why would young people want to live in New Hampshire? God I hate cold weather. I live in the nyc area and it's too cold. I'm moving to Miami where rubios parts are made.

No state income and sales taxes. Commutable to Boston.

 

[Holmes]

Is the chat up yet?

 

[Aaron Strife]

If Hillary finishes with like 45%, Sanders may as well take his ball and go home.

It would be hilarious if she won the state. Silver would have to write a long article about why he's wrong.

I still want to dig up that really smarmy tweet Nate wrote about how the GOP primary is like a rigged reality show where they try to make it seem up in the air, but we all knew the whole time that Rubio would win.

I'll wait until Rubio underperforms though

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Joy Reid is saying its going to get ugly in SC if NV goes poorly for Hillary, You will see a rallying of Democrats around Hillary to stop Bernie at all cost in SC.

They might as well. All the Clinton-smearing lately could really use a response, but not from Hillary herself.

 

[ivysaur12]

I still want to dig up that really smarmy tweet Nate wrote about how the GOP primary is like a rigged reality show where they try to make it seem up in the air, but we all knew the whole time that Rubio would win.

I'll wait until Rubio underperforms though

link pls i'm collecting my tweets for tonight

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Joy Reid is saying its going to get ugly in SC if NV goes poorly for Hillary, You will see a rallying of Democrats around Hillary to stop Bernie at all cost in SC.

About fucking time I would say

 

[ugaboga232]

https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/697191921446490113

Seems good

 

[kirblar]

I still want to dig up that really smarmy tweet Nate wrote about how the GOP primary is like a rigged reality show where they try to make it seem up in the air, but we all knew the whole time that Rubio would win.

I'll wait until Rubio underperforms though

Predicting a winner has been a really dumb idea this whole time.

There are obvious losers (JEB!, now Rubio) but stuff is in so much flux that trying to nail down the end result just isn't possible.

 

[Cheebo]

Hillary isn't winning NH lol wtf.

It's Sanders state. 12% margin I am saying.

 

[PBY]

PSA - the 538 live blog starts in 25 minutes

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Expecting a 30-point Sanders win and a Rubio upset for first place.

 

[Maledict]

Hillary isn't winning NH lol wtf.

It's Sanders syste. 12% margin I am saying.

Absolutely. If she keeps the margin under 20% they should count that as a win.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Hillary isn't winning NH lol wtf.

It's Sanders syste. 12% margin I am saying.

No one's saying that she's winning NH overall, just with older voters, when Sanders was supposed to be close there too.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Here's a breakdown of 2008 results:


18-24 went 60% for Obama, 22% Clinton (remainder Edwards)
25-29 went 37% for Clinton, 35% Obama (remainder Edwards)
65+ went 48% Clinton, 32% Obama (remainder Edwards


18-29 comprised 18% of voters in 2008, 65+ was 13%

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/NH.html