• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

Status
Not open for further replies.
N

NeoXChaos

Member
In 2008, Clinton’s entire 7,589-vote statewide margin over Obama was attributable to just five heavily working-class towns: Manchester (the largest city), Nashua (the second-largest city), Salem (a suburb on the Massachusetts border), Rochester (a mill town on the Maine border) and Berlin (a mill town in the north country). If Clinton wants to keep things close with Sanders tonight, she’ll need to win these towns. If Sanders is winning them, it’ll be a sign that he has broken Clinton’s grip on working-class Democrats and is headed for a big victory.

Meanwhile, Obama’s five biggest margins in 2008 came from liberal, academic, stereotypically granola towns: Hanover (home to Dartmouth College), Keene (home to Keene State College), Durham (home to the University of New Hampshire), Concord (the capital) and Portsmouth (an artsy, high-income coastal city). If Clinton is winning at least 40 percent of the vote in any of these towns, it could be a good sign for her. But if Sanders is winning them by more than 2-to-1, we could be in for a “Bernie blizzard.”
Click to expand...

..
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Cesare Borgia said:
People don't trust her and she struggles to connect with them. And Clintons run campaigns like establishment republicans in terms of cushy aide job and consultant jobs for people who are out of touch/oblivious/etc.

Expect some Politico hit jobs in the coming days/weeks of former Obama staff taking shots. Imagine if she had better competition, ie someone the DNC could at least accept as the nominee.
Click to expand...

Yeah; the politico hit pieces are probably coming soon. Especially if anything goes wrong in NV / SC

NeoXChaos said:
didnt she get better as time went on in 08?
Click to expand...

Heard mixed bag on this. I think there's some fundamental issues at play tied to the Clintons themselves now that this seems to be potentially happening again. But, honestly, she's gonna beat Sanders, and nothing covers up repeated mistakes like winning.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Here are the full exit polls. Sanders +16 would be right in the middle between what each camp would be considered good.

You should not trust exit polls. But you can read them:
D
Sanders 58
Clinton 42

R
Trump 32
Kasich 16
Cruz 14
Rubio 12
Bush 10
Christie 9
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
I've been trying to talk to some of the staffers about the numbers and how one county in our state has been predictive of the eventual nominee to only get a muted response or not at all. Seriously, fuck these people.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
A Human Becoming said:
I've been trying to talk to some of the staffers about the numbers and how one county in our state has been predictive of the eventual nominee to only get a muted response or not at all. Seriously, fuck these people.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry. :(

Campaign staffers are either amazing people or complete dicks. There's no in between, from my experience.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Rubio in fourth would cause me to squee
Click to expand...
Same here.

I'm still amused at myself for being nervous about him as a general candidate for so long. I think it's because he gave me flashbacks to Dubya in 2000: lots of heavily-scripted media appearances, and obviously a lightweight - but with a really compliant press corp following him around.

Christie took the possibility of a Dubya sequel away. I loathe the man, but oddly thankful that we don't have to repeat that slow-motion nightmare.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
HylianTom said:
Same here.

I'm still amused at myself for being nervous about him as a general candidate for so long. I think it's because he gave me flashbacks to Dubya in 2000: lots of heavily-scripted media appearances, and obviously a lightweight - but with a really compliant press corp following him around.

Christie took the possibility of a Dubya sequel away. I loathe the man, but oddly thankful that we don't have to repeat that slow-motion nightmare.
Click to expand...
you are going to jinx it! Wait till we actually get results.

Obama won exit polling in NH by 8. Lost the state by 2
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/697170397805027329
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Surprised the Rubio thing turned out to be real, not noise. I assumed he'd do well-ish, perhaps third place. This could be quite a collapse. I think he can survive since he has money and remains the best establishment choice but this is like a glaring example of how facing Hillary will go.

Interesting seeing these various hit pieces stories about him being sweaty and "panicking" under pressure in his personal life. Good to see the media still carries water for well financed campaigns.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Cesare Borgia said:
Surprised the Rubio thing turned out to be real, not noise. I assumed he'd do well-ish, perhaps third place. This could be quite a collapse. I think he can survive since he has money and remains the best establishment choice but this is like a glaring example of how facing Hillary will go.

Interesting seeing these various hit pieces stories about him being sweaty and "panicking" under pressure in his personal life. Good to see the media still carries water for well financed campaigns.
Click to expand...

Christie pretty much single-handedly confirmed what many were thinking and tanked Rubio. Gotta give credit where it's due.

Can't say for sure until after voting in NH, but it sure looks that way. It's the kinda stuff people follow politics for.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Surprised the Rubio thing turned out to be real, not noise. I assumed he'd do well-ish, perhaps third place. This could be quite a collapse. I think he can survive since he has money and remains the best establishment choice but this is like a glaring example of how facing Hillary will go.

Interesting seeing these various hit pieces stories about him being sweaty and "panicking" under pressure in his personal life. Good to see the media still carries water for well financed campaigns.
Click to expand...
The past two days effectively ended his campaign. It may keep going on for a while, but his chances of winning are over.
 
D

Drakeon

Member
Cheebo said:
Can we please wait till we get actual results before celebrating? Remember what happened in 2008!
Click to expand...

Yeah, if Iowa taught us anything, it's premature to celebrate. We all thought Trump had a really good shot at winning and Hillary would win by a more significant margin than she did.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Cheebo said:
Can we please wait till we get actual results before celebrating? Remember what happened in 2008!
Click to expand...
I'm not talking about NH results specifically, I'm saying Rubiobot bluescreened. It will haunt him the rest of the campaign, and its something that makes him look godawful to both donors and votors - he choked in spectacularly outrageous fashion.

How he finishes here isn't that relevant, his campaign is a walking corpse, just like JEB!'s.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Surprised the Rubio thing turned out to be real, not noise. I assumed he'd do well-ish, perhaps third place. This could be quite a collapse. I think he can survive since he has money and remains the best establishment choice but this is like a glaring example of how facing Hillary will go.

Interesting seeing these various hit pieces stories about him being sweaty and "panicking" under pressure in his personal life. Good to see the media still carries water for well financed campaigns.
Click to expand...
Told you that Marco's debate goof was going to have staying power.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Since the thirst is real I'm reposting this from the primary thread: @DecisionDeskHQ exit poll of 2,000 voters conducted all day today at bellwether precincts

Caz8l4RUsAAuJQS
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Christie is finished IMO.
Cheebo said:
Can we please wait till we get actual results before celebrating? Remember what happened in 2008!
Click to expand...

Seems like liberals really want to declare Rubio's demise. First with the war bottle during the SOTU response, then the dismissal of his polling during the lead up to Iowa (follow Media Matters tweeters for a good laugh), now the debate thing.

RustyNails called it, assuming these exit poll numbers hold. But...we can't rule him out yet. He's still better than Bush. And Kasich doesn't kiss enough donor ass to be the choice IMO.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 10m10 minutes ago Brooklyn, NY
The results trickling through twitter on the Dem race look really good for Sanders. Way ahead in liberal rural areas + wkg class SE NH.

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 11m11 minutes ago
Breaking: first results in Manchester have Bernie up 58%-38%. Everything I've seen so far consistent with a Sanders win in excess of 20%.
Click to expand...

It's not just me saying it.

Just saying,.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Show us your gaming setup: 2025 Edition
2
98
7K
digdug2 replied
Show us your gaming setup: 2024 Edition
2 3 4 5 6
263
52K
Topher replied
  • Locked
Show us your gaming setup: 2023 Edition | 20th anniversary thread
2 3 4 5 6
268
60K
DGrayson replied
GAF Museum - The Greatest OTs of All Time (or at least, some of the great ones)
|OT|
4
2K
Komatsu replied
  • Locked
Show us your gaming setup: 2022 Edition
3 4 5 6 7
333
78K
zephiross replied
Top Bottom