Trump went into Iowa late, he had been told to skip it, the poll results gave him hope, but the caucus structure and the religious nature of the Iowa electorate were always going to trip him up. The polls were up, but trying to read into those was a very bad idea given the state's history in the GOP w/ Santorum/Huckabee. It was possible he'd take it, but it wasn't likely.No it isn't, we saw a Trump surge and were all hoping, every single one of us, that Trump could pull it off.
NH being a primary, the polls are likely to be much more accurate.