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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Live in the moment friend

FfnvQQDh.jpg


Nothing lasts forever

WE GON GET DA HOUSE! WE GON GET DA HOUSE! WE GON GET DA HOUSE! WE GON GET DA HOUSE!

Where are we supposed to get the other $4,999,999?

Kev! Kev, you gotta cover the legal costs to get the tape out there! You're our only hope!
 
👏 People 👏 are 👏 already 👏 voting 👏

👏 there 👏 are 👏 more 👏 tapes 👏
 

GusBus

Member
@NateSilver538

Should point out that the NBC/WSJ poll used a pretty small sample size, and has generally had good numbers for Clinton. But, yeah...

...the "tape isn't hurting Trump!" meme, which always depended on a tortured reading of the data, isn't holding up based on today's polls.

Nate the great.
 

Boke1879

Member
Even if they close by half to 7/8 points, which they probably will. That's a historic blowout enough to sway GA/AZ and who knows what else. God, pls don't fuck up the lead this time.

I believe she's campaigning today and tomorrow. Obama will be on the trail tomorrow as well. Just gotta keep doing what she's doing.
 
So the pessimist in me thinks that lead might tighten by the end of next week a little, since even if he "lost" the second debate he might have made his base more optimistic with his chances.

Still, those are really bad numbers, and I think Hillary would have to be caught on tape murdering someone to make them at all competitive.

Not to mention that if more polls show the same thing from the tape fallout, that's only going to increase the discussion surrounding it, which is only going to keep it in the news cycle even longer for people to digest.

And if something even worse comes out... hoo boy.
 

User1608

Banned
My take is that I doubt last night's debate will do much for Trump. I bet Hillary wins by 8-9 points by the end which is still incredibly solid. There is a month left after all.
 

Uh...yeah, these are "likely voters."

Clinton's ground game plus the trump tapes hitting the attention of just about everyone with a pulse means we are going to see a LOT of marginal, first time, and unlikely voters flooding the polls.

If the polling is at +7, the actual turnout being +10 is entirely realistic.
 

PKrockin

Member
I'm checking 538's list here and the last NBC/WSJ poll they have is September 16-19, Clinton +6 in a four-way (three way? stein isn't listed? doesn't matter, stein is dead I think).
 
/r/dontdeadopeninside



On the other hand I don't see how Trump would even be as close in the polls as he is if his opponent was someone more "generic D" like Kaine. It'd be a competent white man instead of the Evil Witch Queen they'd spent decades building up. Either way I don't see how the Republicans wouldn't be screwed with Trump on the ballot.

Posts like this only reinforce that you guys don't know Republicans. Y'all should visit some red states (and I don't mean go to Chattanooga or Austin either).

Republicans will pull the lever for literally anyone who has an R by their name to stop Democrats.
 
I love Ryan and Pence making statements prior to the debate suggesting that the way he responded to the tape was critical for their continued support. Apparently, "sorry, locker room talk" was what they were waiting for.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I'm checking 538's list here and the last NBC/WSJ poll they have is September 16-19, Clinton +6 in a four-way (three way? stein isn't listed? doesn't matter, stein is dead I think).
Yes, 9/16-9/19: 43-37-9-2, so same last two figures for Johnson and Stein.

So Killary +3, President Trump -2.
 
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