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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
NBC/WSJ has been Clinton's friendliest big pollster, but yeah, it's still one of the big ones and it ain't off by ten points. Trump train is on fire.

Curious to see CNN/ORC which has been a big meanie to Clinton this year.
 
P

PKrockin

Member
benjipwns said:
Yes, 9/16-9/19: 43-37-9-2, so same last two figures for Johnson and Stein.
Click to expand...
Thanks. I can't seem to open the full report. Scribd is acting up on my computer for some reason.

538 also rated the pollster A-... this looks like pretty concrete evidence Trump really got absolutely hammered by the tape.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
.
Click to expand...
giphy.gif
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
GoldenEye 007 said:
Holy shit those polls. Combine that with the Ryan comments, and there might be a real shot of taking Congress. At least the Senate hopefully.
Click to expand...

The Senate is already golden, eyes are on the House now.

+8 Hillary is currently the tipping point, with heavily gerrymandered districts actually damaging Republicans with suppressed turnout.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Veelk said:
For the historically ignorant of us, when you say 14 points is historic, how historic is it?
Click to expand...
A Marist poll had her up 14 in the four way in August. She was up 15 in the two way.

Using these as the only two data points her campaign is collapsing.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Veelk said:
For the historically ignorant of us, when you say 14 points is historic, how historic is it?
Click to expand...

There are very few races that get that high. Reagan/Mondale was 18 points, the map looked like this:

349px-ElectoralCollege1984.svg.png


Anywhere close to 14 points and the GOP is getting wiped out at the house and senate level nationwide.

it's a complete disaster.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Save the oppo. It'd be wasted for the next week. This is going to be self-reinforcing.


From @jmartinNYT:
House conservatives are FURIOUS. Carter, McClintock, Long and especially Dana R angrily tell Rs they can't abandon Trump. LINK tk shortly
Click to expand...
 
G

GoldenEye 007

Member
Grief.exe said:
The Senate is already golden, eyes are on the House now.

+8 Hillary is currently the tipping point, with heavily gerrymandered districts actually damaging Republicans with suppressed turnout.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm just pessimistic for the House given the massive difficulties the Dems have had there. But goddamn if we can pull that off.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Veteran and respected pollster:
/s

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 4m4 minutes ago
The POS NBC/WSJ Poll is not only D+8, it's Likely Voter sample is only 447. Seriously, a National Poll with an LV of 447? Delete Your Poll.
Click to expand...
 
B

Boke1879

Member
We don't need any oppo being released right now. Those polls help put the focus right back on the Trump tape and everything with the GOP is going to be covered. Seriously Paul Ryan is a damn mess.

Interested to see how the call with Priebus and the RNC goes. I feel it'll be similar sentiments to what Ryan is doing, but if they pull funding from Trump to focus on downballot he's even more screwed.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Remember that a margin of about 6-7 points (evenly distributed to all candidates) in 2012 and 2014 would have won us back the House when factoring in the seats we'll gain from redistricting. Now the swing won't be uniform but I can see this hitting suburban districts the hardest which is the likeliest path to a Democratic House (talking seats like MN-3 Paulsen and CA-49 Issa).

So I dunno how much I buy the "oh well Democrats need to be winning by 10" talk, although 10 would certainly make for a stronger guarantee.
 
I

Iolo

Member
I don't quite believe those Marist numbers yet (and it may tighten as the base gets excited again), but damn if it doesn't feel good.

Also Paul Ryan has the worst timing ever
 
J

jtb

Banned
this is best possible scenario for retaking the house, no? Trump cannot be abandoned, even though he is clearly an anchor on the party. He and his rabid base will drag everyone down with him. am I being too optimistic?
 
F

Felix Lighter

Member
Trump is like a dying star. He's burping out endorsements before he explodes. The hope is when he goes supernova he turns into a blackhole in sucks the GOP back into their doom.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
HylianTom said:
Save the oppo. It'd be wasted for the next week. This is going to be self-reinforcing.


From @jmartinNYT:
Click to expand...

Beautiful... They're exactly right. They can't abandon Trump because that's their constituency. Their infighting is legit making me just as happy as the new poll numbers. Letthemfight.gif to the extreme.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
The path to the house I don't think is even primarily dependent on Clinton beating him by like 10. The republican infighting will be the big decider. If the base is completely fed up with the whole electoral process the House becomes a lot easier.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Veelk said:
For the historically ignorant of us, when you say 14 points is historic, how historic is it?
Click to expand...

Some good examples to keep in mind when talking about landslides.

1936 (FDR/Landon) +24.3
1964 (LBJ/Goldwater) +22.6
1972 (Nixon/McGovern) +23.2
1984 (Reagan/Mondale) +18.2

The closest in terms of popular vote was 1880 (Garfield/Hancock) +0.02. The difference was fewer than 2000 votes.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
This may be a lesson to all of us who think any debate performance will change the trajectory of your campaign after a video comes out of you bragging about sexual assault.
 
K

Kangi

Member
Reminds me of early August. And I imagine there's too many Trump bombshells coming for a bounce back to be facilitated like in mid September. Not enough time, either. Unless Hillary dies again.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
This may be a lesson to all of us who think any debate performance will change the trajectory of your campaign after a video comes out of you bragging about sexual assault.
Click to expand...

Debate narrative is gone. Poll and Ryan going to dominate the news.

NBC/WSJ and NBC/SurveyMonkey showing different TRENDZZZZZZs
 
J

jbug617

Banned
Roger Stone paid those women last night to appear.
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...t=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Stone’s Super PAC Stone reportedly paid Kathy Shelton — the Arkansas sexual assault victim whose alleged rapist Hillary Clinton defended in court — $2,500 to appear with Trump before the second presidential debate, according to the Chicago Tribune.
Click to expand...

Earlier this year, Stone sought to raise money to pay off the mortgage of Kathleen Willey, who accused Bill Clinton of making unwanted sexual advances toward her during her time as a volunteer in his White House in the 1990s. Stone claimed in an online video interview that Trump had personally contributed to the fund.
Click to expand...
 
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