phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Three days. The press reports were on 3rd October, but the A-G's letter was dated 30th September.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic
- Thread starter Bronx-Man
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Three days. The press reports were on 3rd October, but the A-G's letter was dated 30th September.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I mean I get it but polling has been very scant this election compared to 2012.
StopMakingSense
Member
STREAMS HAVE CROSSED ON USC.
Psychoward
Banned
I made the mistake of reading Facebook comments tonight and apparantly the prevailing narrative in the deplorable-sphere is that Wikileaks revealed that Hillary directly funds ISIS.
Anti-intellectualism is a disease.
Anti-intellectualism is a disease.
StopMakingSense
Member
I think it just feels that way cause Gallup noped themselves out of the game.
Ouch!
Ah, even better. Knew we were close and just skimmed for the date.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
STREAMS HAVE CROSSED ON USC.
The final outlier has fallen.
Psychoward
Banned
People get apathetic and don't vote.
It's a small chance but I'll be dammed if it doesn't eat away at me. I triple checked my registration lately even though I'm in a blue state.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Wow.
Black Mamba
Member
No, it's not.
The video dropped late Friday. Most everyone did their pre-debate 2 polling by the end of Friday night (Saturday is a bad day to poll, over all)
Very few people are going to commission a poll until after the debate on Sunday.
It's been 2 days now. I'd expect polling to come in some tomorrow and then Thurs/Friday.
I understand it will be a while since the tape, but the debate was just 2 days later which made things tough. And we won't necessarily know if the tape or debate will be the cause for any change.
StopMakingSense
Member
Honestly its just black support getting back to where it should have been all along. Te rest of the data is prettty screwy. Still no movement from women since the tape.
Black Mamba
Member
Check out the intention to vote. Trump supporters dropped by nearly 2 percentage points in just 2 days. This, along with predicted winner chart, is indicating the first couple nights since the tape has depressed his supporters. Whether that's soft or hard supporters is to be seen. Though, one interesting note is college educated people dropped their support for him (he was low but got lower).
Finally, millenials are for Hillary in the poll and increasing. From tied 2 days ago to +7 H.
Also male gap closed.
The whole poll's internals are non-sensical. But yeah, interesting to see the shifts at least.
So right now no single poll has Trump up.
edit: 538 will probably adjust this to Hillary + 5.
That leaves the last 10 polls on 538 with Hillary's worst at +4. Average is +6.2.
sazzy
Member
STREAMS HAVE CROSSED ON USC.
That poll is biased. And its not that its biased now, it was always biased.
Unless Donald starts winning again tomorrow.
Why wouldnt the new Conservative party start taking positions to try and win over the deplorables? A minority/opposition party isn't just going to let that block of votes sit there forever.nah my electoral fanfic is:
- McMullin wins UT after gobbling up most of Johnson's support, becoming the first third-party/independent candidate to win a state in nearly 50 years
- After the election, having established the viability of a non-Republican conservative to win in Utah, McMullin leads a #NeverTrump exodus from the GOP with Kasich, Sasse, Haley, Flake, etc., to form a new Conservative Party or whatever you want to call it
- At minimum, this Conservative Party can probably hang onto most (or all) of the Congressional seats in Utah (as well as the state government), preventing them from being completely wiped out. (And, having a few seats means they could even decide the balance of power in a very close House or Senate.)
- In the short term, the divide between the old, deplorable Republican party and the Conservative Party means that the Democrats win every election, but that is FAR preferred over letting the fascists ever win even once
- Over the long term, the old Republican party dies off because (a) a lot of the establishment GOP will have left, and the remaining deplorables don't know how to run a campaign or ground game and (b) its supporters were old to begin with
- The new two-party system eventually becomes the Democrats vs. the sensible, legit Conservative Party
obviously that's a fanfic scenario but I don't think it's COMPLETELY impossible
JetBlackPanda
Member
I agree but every single person at my work that I talk to is voting for him.
Only me and one other guy are Hillary supporters
RastaMentality
Banned
How did he blow up so quick? Is he blanketing ads all over Utah?
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Not sure how the republicans abandon the "deplorables" after this election. Do they think the alt-right is just going to opt out of the political process in 2020? The same base that propelled Trump to the candidacy will be an active force next time around when Trump is either A) running again or B) has an endorsement to offer that will carry a lot of weight.
Beer Monkey
Member
The Republicans will change their own rules regarding the nomination. Superdelegates. Tax disclosure requirements. Some kind of fitness test, even.
It's their only chance.
So a better question: Lets suppose we win the presidency and we take both the Senate and the House. With Clinton in the president seat, she will appoint liberal supreme court judges.
This will mean that democrats are in the majority in all 3 branches of the government, correct? Legislative, Judiciary, and Executive? For atleast 2 years?
So all these years of Gridlock that Obama had to deal with, they'll just be gone? Will conservatives have any power whatsoever to stop us from doing things we should have done long ago, like passing common sense gun laws?
This will mean that democrats are in the majority in all 3 branches of the government, correct? Legislative, Judiciary, and Executive? For atleast 2 years?
So all these years of Gridlock that Obama had to deal with, they'll just be gone? Will conservatives have any power whatsoever to stop us from doing things we should have done long ago, like passing common sense gun laws?
sazzy
Member
shinra-bansho
Member
How are our diapers today?
He's Mormon. I think he's from Utah, at the very least he was educated there.
Mormons are good at spreading the word in their community.
They'll be sopping wet in an hour and a half when Morning Joe comes on.
JetBlackPanda
Member
He is an LDS conservative that went to BYU and hates trump.
Dude was molded for this state. People here fucking hate Donald Trump, the only problem is they hate Hillary just as much.
Yes. The republicans will be able to filibuster anything and everything they want in the senate. The only way to avoid that is using the budget reconciliation process, which you simply can't do for a lot of the things Clinton wants.
The democrats would need to remove the filibuster basically.
Maybe this is my contempt for the GOP coming through, but I always percieved them to be spineless cowards. You think they'll actually have the gumption to filibuster all the stuff Hillary wants to pass?
Early Voting Could Point to Hillary Clinton Victory Well Before Nov. 8
Fairly in-depth article about early-voting
Also, the NYT is running a subscriber offer - the next 4 weeks for just 99c, then $1.88 per week. Whilst the $1.88 might be a bit much, give it two days and the 4 weeks for 99c will run out on the 10th of November, which means all the immediate post-election coverage will be included. Cancel anytime, and the $1.88 a week is charged in 4 week installments.
Fairly in-depth article about early-voting
Also, the NYT is running a subscriber offer - the next 4 weeks for just 99c, then $1.88 per week. Whilst the $1.88 might be a bit much, give it two days and the 4 weeks for 99c will run out on the 10th of November, which means all the immediate post-election coverage will be included. Cancel anytime, and the $1.88 a week is charged in 4 week installments.
"We've been given a mandate by voters and our job is to not allow one party majority rule over all people. We must take a stand to ensure that there is balance in the government."
cartoon_soldier
Member
Now that some GOPers feel that they are fine not unendorsing Trump but not publicly being very supportive either, would be perfect time for some new tapes.
They did to Obama. It's a tactic that their base loves. Any sign of agreeing with a democrat, or anything less than total, scorched earth opposition, results in a primary challenge.
Remember, these are the people who attacked Boehner and Mitch McConnel for being Obama's lapdogs who gave him everything he wanted. That's how far from reality these people are.
RastaMentality
Banned
You've been asking for them every morning now since the debate lol. I think WaPo or whoever should wait until the dust completely settles.
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the beautiful and most certainly talented kellyanne is getting dragged all over social media today after Anderson tossed her wig around. sad!
sazzy
Member
Does anyone know if political parties are required to accept anyone who wants to run for President during the primaries stage of the election?
I'm wondering if the GOP could've said, at the time Donald announced his candidacy, that his remarks aren't welcome and won't be representing the GOP.
I'm wondering if the GOP could've said, at the time Donald announced his candidacy, that his remarks aren't welcome and won't be representing the GOP.
shinra-bansho
Member
They should release a tape every hour until the election. Nay, minute.
And Hillary should somehow get her crotch grabbed by Trump.
Or maybe Chelsea.
Because everyone in here has proven so good at campaign strategy.
And Hillary should somehow get her crotch grabbed by Trump.
Or maybe Chelsea.
Because everyone in here has proven so good at campaign strategy.
PMed! Really cool of you.
8 X 11 Printer Paper
Member
I say Hilary should wear Nascar-esque pantsuits, have every single fiber of her clothing covered in some kind of advertisement. I'm sure she has some room somewhere if the Trump Campaign wants to take up some clothing ad space for her wardrobe.
shinra-bansho
Member
Maybe she can wear a vagina print pantsuit.
I thought we all already had subscriptions to the failing NYT. I forgot how poor you all are.
I thought we all already had subscriptions to the failing NYT. I forgot how poor you all are.
In the toss-up between the WaPo and the NYT, I went for the WaPo. Which I'm pleased about (I think it's the better paper), but it's very frustrating to hit their maximum 10 free articles on the first day of the month.
I went with WaPo. Daddy David needs my monies to release more tapes.
nature boy
Member
Ughh, Morning Joe thinks there's a "secret Trump voter".
Officerrob
Banned
He's trying to use the logic that this is a "change" election, so distancing yourself from the stink of Washington is a good thing. The problem is Trump is crazy change, and he's scaring people. Just being different isn't enough when people think you are a bigot who is out of your mind
A secret to everyone.
sazzy
Member
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