Still, with a little under three weeks to go, we cant yet say whether things will get worse for Trump, since we simply have no modern precedent for a major party abandoning their nominee. However, there is one telling downballot precedent that offers many parallels: Missouris extraordinary 2012 Senate election.
In that race, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill was unpopular with voters and faced a hostile electorate in a red state. Its easy to forget now, but she narrowly trailed Republican Rep. Todd Akin at the time he won the GOP primary (with McCaskills now-legendary assistance). But soon after earning his partys nomination, Akins campaign totally fell to pieces. On Aug. 19, he infamously defended a ban on abortions that allowed for no exceptions by preposterously claiming pregnancy could not result from rape. In lines that will live forever, Akin declared, If its legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down.
Amazingly, Akins shocking ignorance now manages to pale in comparison to all the countless offensive things Trump has said. Akins statement was more than outrageous enough, though, and it led his own partys leaders to call on him to drop out of the racenot out of any moral conviction, mind you, but because they quickly concluded hed destroyed his own candidacy. But the same kind of bull-headed stubbornness that McCaskill knew would benefit her if Akin became the GOP nominee also ensured that he wouldnt step aside at the establishments behest, and his outside financial support dried up.
As a result, many pundits immediately presumed Akin had rendered himself dead man walking, butand this is the crucial pointthe polls simply didnt show it. Two weeks after legitimate rape, Akin only trailed McCaskill by 1 percent, according to the Pollster average. Even a full month later, he was behind just 3.3 percent, and on Election Daytwo and a half months after his meltdownpolls only showed her 8.7 points ahead. You can see it all unfold in the chart below from Huffington Post:
