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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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User 463088

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
I think those were posted to 538 earlier and they didn't really affect it much. Though the barage of shit polls (IPSOS, Google Surveys, Remington, Rass, etc.) have been chipping away at their model a tad.
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Their poll of NC has Trump winning Charlotte by 10 points. You know, the county Obama won by like 30 points.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
adam387 said:
There are going to be some polls posted on 538 soon. They are from Remington Research Group. They are trash. If anyone bed wets, I will force you to drink whatever cocktail idea comes into my brain.

They have Trump ahead in Ohio, because he's TIED in Cleveland, and he's behind by 1 in Columbus. They have him getting at least 20% of the African American vote in each state they polled. Most states have him getting at least 30% of the Hispanic vote.

This is a republican pollster that worked for Ted Cruz.

Do not give into fear.
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FUCK!
 
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User 463088

Banned
I kinda had a shitty day, and it says something about me that reading these polls to my fiance has my in tears. He has no idea why they're funny, but he's cute. He doesn't have to be smart. :p
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Zukkoyaki said:
538 really has no standards whatsoever when it comes to polls that they include do they?
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They do, the standards just could stand to be higher.

Everyone here should know by now not to focus on any single poll anyway.
Chumley said:
538 gives every possible advantage they can to Trump because of how badly they fucked up in the primaries.
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According to Nate the model is mostly unchanged from the 2012 election, so there was little influence from the primaries.

But go ahead, people here love to bash FiveThirtyEight. Not that they don't deserve any criticism, it just goes overboard.
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
adam387 said:
CvpdfVdUsAAfzeB.jpg

I think that says it all
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Official campaign sticker?
 
T

Teggy

Member
3 US Senators (including MA's own Ed Markey) wrote to the USGA to have them move the 2017 women's championship from a Trump course.
 
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RustyNails

Member
Skiptastic said:
My employer's health care is going up 25% and I don't get a subsidy. So...that sucks.
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My employer based coverage is pretty freaking good, but monthly premiums are going up as well :(

Obama said its the millenials fault. A lot of them are still not on it. Also, sick people taking its full advantage means the providers cant cope. We need more doctors, hospitals, insurance companies, etc.
 
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Skiptastic

Member
Fragamemnon said:
higher deductibles everywhere too. This isn't really the fault of Obamacare and it would have happened anyway to employer health plans. At least with the ACA we get a lot more people insured.

Core problem feels like the lack of cost containment.The fix for the ACA will likely be a multi-headed hydra of a bill, and while I'm OK with that it might be pretty hard to get through even a Dem House and Senate (Ryan's toolbags would happily watch people suffer for ideological gain and won't do anything about the ACA)
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Look, I'm on board with the ACA, but were market forces pushing companies to HSA plans with high deductibles before the ACA? Because my other options at work are now gone and I'm being told it is because of ACA regulations that make the previous plans we had too expensive.

I'm not blind to the fact they could be lying and using it as an excuse, but there it is.

And, btw, I'm still only paying a little under $250 a month for premiums and my employer kicks in $1,500 into my HSA day one, so I should probably just STFU about it. But it's still $600 this year I can't spend on home improvement, classes for my son, or saving for retirement so I don't like it.

StopMakingSense said:
yes
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Well, there it is lol. I'll just shut up now.
 
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Retro

Member
Basileus777 said:
And I'm convinced that whoever wins the Presidential nomination will be someone who didn't run this year.
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That's basically what I was getting at; it has to be someone who didn't run this year and it has to be someone who can't be linked to Trump, and all of that has to happen while the party performs a major platform realignment to reach out to new demographics (most likely women and Hispanics) while simultaneously casting out the groups that make that realignment and outreach impossible (pro-life zealots, white nationalists, etc.). And even then, the memory of Trump has so tarnished the brand that they're going to have to fight to convince people this realignment represents real change.

It's like trying to get people to come aboard your ship while it's sinking, burning, and still packed with people who keep starting fires and drilling holes. And the name of the ship is the S.S. Remember Trump.

Oh yeah, and there's Democrats still pumped up from a landslide 2016 victory making constant passes to fire into your hull.
 
P

Pyrokai

Member
adam387 said:
There are going to be some polls posted on 538 soon. They are from Remington Research Group. They are trash. If anyone bed wets, I will force you to drink whatever cocktail idea comes into my brain.

They have Trump ahead in Ohio, because he's TIED in Cleveland, and he's behind by 1 in Columbus. They have him getting at least 20% of the African American vote in each state they polled. Most states have him getting at least 30% of the Hispanic vote.

This is a republican pollster that worked for Ted Cruz.

Do not give into fear.
Click to expand...

Totes. There is NO way he takes Columbus, lol.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Rachel's maddow headline: "I don't rent to the n word"
a quote from fred trump retold by a guy who was in the room with both trumps. When Fred Trump said that, donald trump nodded his head and said "That's the way it's supposed to be"
 
U

User 463088

Banned
The important thing is it's back in the news. NBC News looks like they've put several stories together about this and they plan on running them. They have interviews with Maxine Brown.
 
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Boke1879

Member
aspiegamer said:
No disagreement! She just seems to be acting like this is a huge revelation of some sort.

...Ok, lol, there's a "paperwork marked with a 'C'" twist? That's hilarious.
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No I totally get what you mean. This isn't the nuke that will dominant news cycles to election day and make republicans stay home.

But if this reaches even a fraction of people who didn't know the extent of it all. It's done it's job. I know this election has been crazy. But in a "normal" election cycle this would probably be treated as big news. So I still judge it based on that.
 
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Slayven

Member
adam387 said:
The important thing is it's back in the news. NBC News looks like they've put several stories together about this and they plan on running them. They have interviews with Maxine Brown.
Click to expand...

Yeah this is a whole dateline thing. Really well put together, they got the receipts.

Won't move the needle much, but it will be fun to see trump supporters dance
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Slayven said:
Yeah this is a whole dateline thing. Really well put together, they got the receipts.

Won't move the needle much, but it will be fun to see trump supporters dance
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Ya, I think this is going to end up on Dateline. That's great. These women deserve to have their stories told. Fuck Donald and his racist father.
 
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