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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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Barbara Corcoran said that when she was pregnant, Donald Trump came up to her and said "My wife is pregnant too, but her boobs are so much bigger than yours"
 
The Newt Gingrich story spread to CNN and MSNBC. Mark Preston looked like he almost burst out laughing. It's also amazing Gingrich is even trying to make this argument considering his history. I thought he was the smart one...
 

Chumley

Banned
The Newt Gingrich story spread to CNN and MSNBC.

Turns out Newt was the oppo all along

1408.gif
 

Retro

Member
Pence just referred to Trump as his "opponent". Nice Freudian slip.

Just in time for Halloween; "The Oppo was coming from inside the Campaign!"

Also, because I missed it earlier but wanted to sneak in this snarky line;

People working on Trump's White House transition, which is led by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, have been asked by Trump to narrow down those efforts and refocus on the race, the sources, who asked not to be identified, said Tuesday.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN12P2ZS

This is taking the time to put the horse back in front of the cart after both have already sailed over the cliff.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Whoa. Hillary was at 88.1% in the polls-only model on the 17th. Now she's at 84.9%. What happened?!?!?! Is this August all over again?!?!?!?!?!!?!??!?!

(these fucking 50-state polls, jesus christ, this model)
The model is still way too responsive to those polls, but the actual margins between her and Trump are pretty similar to HuffPo's forecast. They are more in Trump's favor compared to the NYT Upshot however.

Sam Wang also uses the data from the national polls, but I don't believe he uses the individual state polling in his forecast. I really don't think they make that big a difference in the marginal differences in most cases.
 

Killerhertz

Neo Member
Obamacare premiu.......... News coming in newt Gingrich trump supporter and former speaker reminds women who watch Fox News why they are lying nasty women
 

royalan

Member
Mike Pence, as a self-proclaimed "religious man", is going to have to answer to God for the lies he's telling on the Clinton Foundation.
 
Mike Pence, as a self-proclaimed "religious man", is going to have to answer to God for the lies he's telling on the Clinton Foundation.
Girl, that whole interview was weird. That pivot hurt my neck. Their firewall is the American people. And it's not a big deal he's going to Utah, because he was going west anyway.

Girl.
 

Cyanity

Banned
I wonder if Pence realizes how slimy he comes off in interviews.
He may be fooling diehard republicans, but there isn't a single democrat falling for his snake in the grass schtick.
 
The model is still way too responsive to those polls, but the actual margins between her and Trump are pretty similar to HuffPo's forecast. They are more in Trump's favor compared to the NYT Upshot however.

Sam Wang also uses the data from the national polls, but I don't believe he uses the individual state polling in his forecast. I really don't think they make that big a difference in the marginal differences in most cases.
wang only uses state polling
 
Pretty interesting talk from Nate Bronze and Harry "Very Single" Enten on why Hillary is an underrated candidate. Gets into how her numbers have improved, and how she's running a good campaign and why people want to vote for her (scroll down for the video):

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-are-the-undecided-voters/

Reading this just reminds me of why 538 is such a disappointment. Bad statistical analysis about how the the race is tightening? Even in these pieces they overreact and read too deeply into small fluctuations of polls. Why does it feel like no one at 538 knows how to write?
 
Reading this just reminds me of why 538 is such a disappointment. Bad statistical analysis about how the the race is tightening? Even in these pieces they overreact and read too deeply into small fluctuations of polls. Why does it feel like no one at 538 knows how to write?

They have Emily "Actually, China wasn't aborting way too many female children, it was Hepatitis B and drinking while pregnant is good." Oster as one of their writers.

They are not good at finding talent.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Is newt talking out of his ass when he said early voting is leaning towards republicans in PA and FL?
Yes because PA doesn't have early voting. We also have numbers showing that dems are essentially running even with republicans in FL which is HUGE by historical standards
 
According to PredictWise state-by-state probabilities of Clinton winning, these are the states which are >90%.

They add up to 273.
Clinton's presidency is pretty much a done deal at this point, absent some major catastrophe that can be laid solely at the Democrats' feet and one that voters would better trust Trump to take care of (what would this even be?)

And actually even then maybe not because of how significant early voting has been this year. Hillary already has plenty of votes baked in.
 
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