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[metalslimer]

The media has been focused for so long on how much everyone hates them both to see how Hilary has been headed back towards air for a while now. And while that may be because of her opponent you can probably say the same of Obamas approval rating right now when he really hasn't gotten much done this year.

 

[smurfx]

Hot take: Hillary's favorables are improving because people think she is going to win, and people like a winner.

which is why it could turn into a huge blow out win for hillary. many would be trump supporters might stay home because they don't want to waste time on a losing candidate and many in between people will vote for hillary because they think she is going to win.

 

[B-Dubs]

I wonder if Debate 3 had something to do with Hillary's favorables. Samantha Bee mentioned how Hillary slid her "mask" and became really compassionate when Trump bullshitted about ripping babies from the womb.

A lot of the people who hated her in the primaries, who bought into all the attacks and caricatures, watched the debates and what they saw didn't match up with what they believed.

Hot take: Hillary's favorables are improving because people think she is going to win, and people like a winner.

Also this.

 

[A Human Becoming]

wang only uses state polling

His state polls spreadsheet show Ipsos, which breaks down their national poll by state from my understanding.

 

[Iolo]

CNN needs to send a Trump surrogate down a trap door Varuca Salt-style each time a state is called for Clinton on election night.

"She was a bad egg," quipped Anderson.

 

[mo60]

David duke qualified for the louisana senate debate. Lol.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/david-duke-former-kkk-leader-qualifies-louisiana-debate

 

[Bowdz]

Hot take: Hillary's favorables are improving because people think she is going to win, and people like a winner.

Yep.

I think there is a strong bandwagon effect starting to take place specifically with millennials. The time in which it was cool to hate Hillary is past us and we can see the shift of Johnson and Stein voters over to the Clinton camp already taking place.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Can we just stop talking about Johnson and Stein, they are statistical noise at this point. Beyond irrelevant.

It's physically embarrassing how poorly they've done considering how high the negatives are on both major candidates.

If there was ever an election where a third party candidate could have been a huge factor it's this one.

 

[sazzy]

David duke qualified for the louisana senate debate. Lol.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/david-duke-former-kkk-leader-qualifies-louisiana-debate

and the debate is at a historically black uni

 

[VendettaRed07]

Hot take: Hillary's favorables are improving because people think she is going to win, and people like a winner.

This is true.

LeBron's favorables went up considerably after winning a title for the Cavs. Even with people who previously hated him.

 

[BobTheFork]

Yep.

I think there is a strong bandwagon effect starting to take place specifically with millennials. The time in which it was cool to hate Hillary is past us and we can see the shift of Johnson and Stein voters over to the Clinton camp already taking place.

I remember hearing that on Election day in 08. Lots of people who were going to vote for McCain ended up voting Obama because they wanted to vote for the winner and thought it was over,

 

[Wilsongt]

The media won't quit with the "TWO OF THE MOST UNPOPULAR CANDIDATES IN HISTORY" narrative.

 

[Slayven]

It's physically embarrassing how poorly they've done considering how high the negatives are on both major candidates.

If there was ever an election where a third party candidate could have been a huge factor it's this one.

Yeah, they could have been somewhat contenders by not being stupid and pleading their cases like sane people but.....

 

[Thunder Monkey]

One of mystic predictions has come to pass!

Hillary Clintons approval rating would be above water before the election, almost solely because of her opponent.

The next two we won't know until election day. I think this is going to be the election where the rustbelt starts showing signs of reddening. It won't be by much. But they'll tick a shade redder as large swathes of the country go bluer than they have in generations. The second is tied to this. Trump wins Texas by 2.4%. It takes until 1am ET before Texas is called.

 

[RastaMentality]

Yep.

I think there is a strong bandwagon effect starting to take place specifically with millennials. The time in which it was cool to hate Hillary is past us and we can see the shift of Johnson and Stein voters over to the Clinton camp already taking place.

Yeah I have previously politically apathetic friends asking me for Hillary signs because they wanna show out. A lot of people legit excited to vote for the first time in this crazy election.

 

[Pixieking]

One of mystic predictions has come to pass!

Hillary Clintons approval rating would be above water before the election, almost solely because of her opponent.

It's hard to quantify how much Hillary's favourables are up due to Trump being Trump, and how much is due to Hillary being personable/intelligent/empathetic. The two are so intertwined. Is it Trump's fault Hillary appears more intelligent in all three debates? Or is it hers because she's confident and knows policy? Is it Trump's fault she comes across as Presidential? Or is it because she's actually met leaders of other countries, and doesn't choke in a stressful situation?

Yeah, you can argue it's Trump's fault she appears more human, especially in the third debate, where she was visibly angry and upset by what Trump was saying on abortion and accepting the election. But he's equally the perfect foil for her - someone who is as genuinely sociopathic and narcissistic as the right-wing falsely claim her to be. Against Trump, all she needs to do is appear somewhat human and normal and people can see how incorrect the media and GOP portrayal of her is. Because Trump is everything that the media and GOP should be fighting against, if they followed their principles and not the party-lines of sexism and hate.

 

[FrenchMovieTheme]

i feel like everytime i watch CNN i come away being scared that trump could win. now, i am a logical person, and i realize that his odds of winning at this point are very slim, but it still makes me nervous!

i should stop watching cnn

 

[Mario]

It's hard to quantify how much Hillary's favourables are up due to Trump being Trump, and how much is due to Hillary being personable/intelligent/empathetic. The two are so intertwined. Is it Trump's fault Hillary appears more intelligent in all three debates? Or is it hers because she's confident and knows policy? Is it Trump's fault she comes across as Presidential? Or is it because she's actually met leaders of other countries, and doesn't choke in a stressful situation?

Yeah, you can argue it's Trump's fault she appears more human, especially in the third debate, where she was visibly angry and upset by what Trump was saying on abortion and accepting the election. But he's equally the perfect foil for her - someone who is as genuinely sociopathic and narcissistic as the right-wing falsely claim her to be. Against Trump, all she needs to do is appear somewhat human and normal and people can see how incorrect the media and GOP portrayal of her is. Because Trump is everything that the media and GOP should be fighting against, if they followed their principles and not the party-lines of sexism and hate.

There is probably also the impact of her being tied into the "Obama and Clinton administration" and things on balance not being so bad. No major domestic "terrorist shooting" for a while (and no attack on Western countries getting media play), continuing improvement in job numbers and recent average wage increases, oil prices staying low, no significant US forces involved in the middle of foreign conflict, offensive on Mosul being successful at this stage, etc.

The GOP has been positioning her as "more of the same" since 2012, as has Trump for the last year. And more of the same seems increasingly favourable to some I'm sure.

 

[TheCrow]

i feel like everytime i watch CNN i come away being scared that trump could win. now, i am a logical person, and i realize that his odds of winning at this point are very slim, but it still makes me nervous!

i should stop watching cnn

Yeah you should probably do that. If anything interesting actually happens someone will mention it here or post clips. Though I do like to tune in if a poll with a big Clinton lead comes out just to see how they cover it.

 

[daedalius]

I wonder if Debate 3 had something to do with Hillary's favorables. Samantha Bee mentioned how Hillary slid her "mask" and became really compassionate when Trump bullshitted about ripping babies from the womb.

Latest Sam B was amazing to watch, she is so good.

 

[Pixieking]

There is probably also the impact of her being tied into the "Obama and Clinton administration" and things on balance not being so bad. No major domestic "terrorist shooting" for a while (and no attack on Western countries getting media play), continuing improvement in job numbers and recent average wage increases, oil prices staying low, no significant US forces involved in the middle of foreign conflict, offensive on Mosul being successful at this stage, etc.

Yeah, I'm sure the FBI/DHS/NSA are working overtime on intelligence analysis and follow-up, since a terrorist incident leading-up to such a polarising election would have an over-sized effect. :/

Meanwhile...

Exclusive: Pro-Trump campaign group should face inquiry over 'foreign donor’, leading election lawyer states

Lawrence Noble, who was general counsel at the US Federal Election Commission (FEC) for 13 years, said Jesse Benton, former chief strategist at the Great America PAC, was clearly “soliciting foreign national money” from a fictitious Chinese donor in recordings by undercover reporters.

His actions demonstrated “clear violations” of the Federal Election Campaign Act, which the PAC and Eric Beach, its co-chair, who referred Mr Benton to the reporters, could also have breached.

Having reviewed Mr Benton’s discussions with reporters, Mr Noble, who is now general counsel at the Campaign Legal Center, a DC-based advocacy group, said: “The scheme here is a scheme to launder foreign money to a super PAC, which is illegal. And it is very clear that the intention was that the money be given to help the Trump super PAC. It was agreed several times that the money would help the Trump super PAC.”

Mr Noble called for the actions of the PAC and Mr Benton to be examined by the Federal Election Commission and Department of Justice, saying: “I think there should be an investigation. No money changed hands but the solicitation of the money is illegal.

It's The Telegraph, which... used to be a very good paper (even with the Tory bias), but I haven't been paying attention to them since Brexit, so they may suck more nowadays.

 

[hipsterpants]

I think a lot of the potential 3rd-party voters and general "I will never vote for Hillary people" have realized just how damn satisfying it will be to vote for the woman that defeats Trump. That's what happened to someone I know from college that was a bernie buster and planned to vote for Stein (lol).

Like, if you despise Trump like any sane individual and want to tell him to go fuck himself the best way to do it is to contribute to destroying in a landslide.

 

[kess]

I just realized Ted Cruz sits in Ralph Yarborough's former Senate seat.

Huh

 

[sazzy]

what happens if you cast your vote early, and then die before the actual election day?

does your vote get counted?

 

[Debirudog]

Latest Sam B was amazing to watch, she is so good.

One of the few satire shows that unapologetically praises Clinton. Too many others focus on the simple fact that Trump's crap.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

It's hard to quantify how much Hillary's favourables are up due to Trump being Trump, and how much is due to Hillary being personable/intelligent/empathetic. The two are so intertwined. Is it Trump's fault Hillary appears more intelligent in all three debates? Or is it hers because she's confident and knows policy? Is it Trump's fault she comes across as Presidential? Or is it because she's actually met leaders of other countries, and doesn't choke in a stressful situation?

Yeah, you can argue it's Trump's fault she appears more human, especially in the third debate, where she was visibly angry and upset by what Trump was saying on abortion and accepting the election. But he's equally the perfect foil for her - someone who is as genuinely sociopathic and narcissistic as the right-wing falsely claim her to be. Against Trump, all she needs to do is appear somewhat human and normal and people can see how incorrect the media and GOP portrayal of her is. Because Trump is everything that the media and GOP should be fighting against, if they followed their principles and not the party-lines of sexism and hate.

There is probably also the impact of her being tied into the "Obama and Clinton administration" and things on balance not being so bad. No major domestic "terrorist shooting" for a while (and no attack on Western countries getting media play), continuing improvement in job numbers and recent average wage increases, oil prices staying low, no significant US forces involved in the middle of foreign conflict, offensive on Mosul being successful at this stage, etc.

The GOP has been positioning her as "more of the same" since 2012, as has Trump for the last year. And more of the same seems increasingly favourable to some I'm sure.

I agree with these points.

The intent was more Trump being Trump made it easier for Hillary to achieve something she's notoriously had issues with. Connecting with voters.

 

[Necrovex]

CNN has become unwatchable, specifically after the Access Hollywood tapes came out.

Nothing can be salvaged from those conversations...

CNN International is pretty decent. I typically watch that channel for a quick glance of related international news. I recall visiting home and domestic CNN was a dumpster fire. Couldn't believe the difference between the two.

 

[BigJonsson]

what happens if you cast your vote early, and then die before the actual election day?

does your vote get counted?

Of course

How would they go back and find your specific vote? It's secret ballot

 

[ryutaro's mama]

PoliGAF 2016IOT14I Our Firewall Is The American People

 

[Beer Monkey]

Of course

How would they go back and find your specific vote? It's secret ballot

Actually they could. When you return your ballot a number on it gets matched back to the exact voter so they know who actually voted. I can see this on my BOE data for my county.

How you filled your ballot out is technically secret but it would be possible to block the ballots of those who died before they get tabulated.

I'm speaking hypothetically.

 

[sazzy]

I wanted to see if the 'shy Donald voter' theory could be real, so came up with these polling graphs using the Huffpost Pollster: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

Using likely voters only.

Average of
-Automated Phone
-IVR/Online
-Internet polls

Average of
-Live Phone polls

Overall average of all polls

So what does this mean?

-Even if there is a 'shy Donald voter' it may still not be enough to affect the Presidential race.

-Don't get complacent about the race; vote and urge others to do so too.

 

[Fenderputty]

i feel like everytime i watch CNN i come away being scared that trump could win. now, i am a logical person, and i realize that his odds of winning at this point are very slim, but it still makes me nervous!

i should stop watching cnn

At times, reading this thread is basically a live blog of CNN anyway lol

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

In the end we learned the oppo was inside all of us the entire time.

 

[BlastProcessing]

I wanted to see if the 'shy Donald voter' theory could be real, so came up with these polling graphs using the Huffpost Pollster: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

Using likely voters only.

Average of
-Automated Phone
-IVR/Online
-Internet polls




Average of
-Live Phone polls



Overall average of all polls



So what does this mean?

-Even if there is a 'shy Donald voter' it may still not be enough to affect the Presidential race.

-Don't get complacent about the race; vote and urge others to do so too.

One of the things I find funny when Trump supporters make a Shy Trump Voter argument is the fact that it is directly opposed to their Enthusiasm Gap argument.

"Our Trump supporters are super excited and attend huge rallies! They are also deeply ashamed."

It just doesn't make sense.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

One of the things I find funny when Trump supporters make a Shy Trump Voter argument is the fact that it is directly opposed to their Enthusiasm Gap argument.

"Our Trump supporters are super excited and attend huge rallies! They are also deeply ashamed."

It just doesn't make sense.

It could go something like "Our Nazis are super excited, but the reasonable people are ashamed of admitting they like Trump."

But why it would be important that Trump's Nazis are very excited eludes me.

 

[CCS]

It could go something like "Our Nazis are super excited, but the reasonable people are ashamed of admitting they like Trump."

But why it would be important that Trump's Nazis are very excited eludes me.

"We're winning bigly with Nazis. Crooked Hillary isn't getting any of them, they're going to us, they're going to David Duke. We have great numbers with the Nazis, great numbers."

 

[sazzy]

One of the things I find funny when Trump supporters make a Shy Trump Voter argument is the fact that it is directly opposed to their Enthusiasm Gap argument.

"Our Trump supporters are super excited and attend huge rallies! They are also deeply ashamed."

It just doesn't make sense.

Yep.

Also, I wanted to point out that I'm no pollster; I'm just taking Huffpost Pollster at face value and extrapolating from what they've provided.

Pollsters who've come on MSNBC, CNN have said that they're not seeing any discrepancy bw their live polls and automated polls.

 

[CCS]

I must say, Trump has been leaning on fascism pretty heavily for a long time now but it's very sad and scary to see his supporters straight up using Nazi slogans.

 

[phisheep]

I have a question.

When we see tallies of early voting by party, what does the party designation mean? Surely the votes aren't being counted already, so I guess these tallies are by party registration?

 

[CCS]

I have a question.

When we see tallies of early voting by party, what does the party designation mean? Surely the votes aren't being counted already, so I guess these tallies are by party registration?

Yep.

Still a pretty useful metric at least.

 

[phisheep]

That's correct, yes.

OK. So that suggests to me that these returns will be overstating Trump support by the number of disgusted Republicans not voting for him. That gives me comfort.

 

[Eusis]

Actually they could. When you return your ballot a number on it gets matched back to the exact voter so they know who actually voted. I can see this on my BOE data for my county.

How you filled your ballot out is technically secret but it would be possible to block the ballots of those who died before they get tabulated.

I'm speaking hypothetically.

I'm guessing that most would honor it as a dead person's final wish in the political field. And that it is just a minority.

And likely to not win PR points if they try to rule it illegal and at least for Republicans is probably going to hurt their numbers more than it'd hurt Democrats.

 

[CCS]

This may be the greatest headline ever.

Donald Trump: Hillary Clinton 'personally ordered' Donald Duck to stalk me

 

[sazzy]

The first thing people are told when they join a cult, knowingly or unknowingly, is:

Do not believe anyone but me. People will do or say anything about me to change your mind. Do not believe them. Believe me.

Donald Trump:

Believe me.

The media is lying.

The polls are lying.

Everything is rigged.

Believe me.

https://www.google.com/search?q=donald+trump+cult

 

[Beer Monkey]

I have a question.

When we see tallies of early voting by party, what does the party designation mean? Surely the votes aren't being counted already, so I guess these tallies are by party registration?

Yes. Like I said when you return a ballot a code on it gets matched to your exact voter registration in the database. It doesn't typically get scanned in for results until election day.

 

[Loudninja]

This may be the greatest headline ever.

Donald Trump: Hillary Clinton 'personally ordered' Donald Duck to stalk me

Hahaha man I love it.

'Quacking' At the Seams - Video Exposes Hillary Clinton Donald Duck Campaign - Fox & Friends
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-c9tH3MZpxY

pfffffff hahaha

 

[HK-47]

How many percentage points is a good GOTV operation worth versus a struggling one?

 

[A Human Becoming]

How many percentage points is a good GOTV operation worth versus a struggling one?

Not as much as I thought: only a 1-2% improvement.

 

[mclem]

Ever been to their site?
http://micahielnicholson.wixsite.com/everlastingfather2

...what do they have against boules?

 

[Oblivion]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuKLVO6OrUI

Hey look, Wolf Blitzer actually does some decent journalism.

So from this clip, it seems:

- Kellyanne has no idea what Obamacare actually is.
- She seems to support allowing people with pre-existing conditions to buy insurance because "it already exists", somehow ignoring that the only reason it does so is because of Obamacare.
- Also she seems to think that people get penalties even if they have insurance.
- Trump doesn't support the provision that allows kids to stay on their parents plans until they're 26.
- Trump DOES support keeping subsidies around, though they'll be "modified" in some unclear way.