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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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G

Gotchaye

Member
BlastProcessing said:
First I am not just talking about campaign stops and ads. I am talking about ground game and policy as well. I am also making a larger historical argument, rather than a specific one about the last 50 or so years. I think that the Electoral College is a flexible system that has gennerally served our Democracy well. I think, like many parts of our Constitution many of the elements are happy accidents. I don't think The Founders for saw how teh EC would play out just like I don't think they realized that they enshrined a two party system into the 12th Amendment. I do think that those elements have played a part in the relative sucess of American Democracy.

I look at democracy through the lense of coalitions. I think that the EC has historically forced candidates to create more diverse coalitions than they would have if the Presidency was decided by a simple national vote.
Click to expand...

Can you expand on this? After all, it almost never happens that a candidate wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote - the actual EC-winning coalitions we've had would have in almost all cases been a PV-winning coalition. Before modern political science elections were also kind of crapshoots - popular vote margins were often very high and I have a hard time believing that there was much strategizing about electoral college math. Surely politicians were basically just aiming to be as popular as possible. So I also think it's reasonable to care mostly about the last 50 years - politics just works differently now. It's easy to believe that there were institutions that used to be fine but now aren't because political science has advanced to a point where they're game-able.

Also I'm looking at some historical elections and I don't really see where the electoral college would have been doing much good. Like, for a long time politics was pretty weird because people didn't quite get that what we had was a two party system, and that would have been weird with or without the EC. Slavery is a big deal and there's something of a north/south split. This is broadly true even after the Civil War - 1880 is striking in how close the popular vote was despite the EC college results being very cleanly split north/south, which again suggests to me that you succeeded in politics not by trying to build a diverse coalition but by ignoring lots of voters in safe states. And it's pretty clean north/south splits for a very long time. Teddy Roosevelt won the popular vote by 20 points but still lost all of the south.
 
H

HanShotFirst

Member
BlastProcessing said:
First I am not just talking about campaign stops and ads. I am talking about ground game and policy as well. I am also making a larger historical argument, rather than a specific one about the last 50 or so years. I think that the Electoral College is a flexible system that has gennerally served our Democracy well. I think, like many parts of our Constitution many of the elements are happy accidents. I don't think The Founders for saw how teh EC would play out just like I don't think they realized that they enshrined a two party system into the 12th Amendment. I do think that those elements have played a part in the relative sucess of American Democracy.

I look at democracy through the lense of coalitions. I think that the EC has historically forced candidates to create more diverse coalitions than they would have if the Presidency was decided by a simple national vote.
Click to expand...

I said it before, but I think even without the electoral college ground game wouldn't change as much as people think. I think presidential candidates would still focus heavily on swing states where the Senate race is competitive to give their party's Senatorial candidate a boost. However, they would also focus on competitive congressional districts to help the down ballot, so this would lead to more of a local focus as well.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
HanShotFirst said:
I said it before, but I think even without the electoral college ground game wouldn't change as much as people think. I think presidential candidates would still focus heavily on swing states where the Senate race is competitive to give their party's Senatorial candidate a boost. However, they would also focus on competitive congressional districts to help the down ballot, so this would lead to more of a local focus as well.
Click to expand...

I do think fighting for the Senate would help, but my main worry is still there; it'd be better for the Dem/Rep to just camp out states that they're already appealing to and drive up their margins instead of actually venturing out to areas where they may need to moderate their messaging.
 
H

HanShotFirst

Member
AntraxSuicide said:
I do think fighting for the Senate would help, but my main worry is still there; it'd be better for the Dem/Rep to just camp out states that they're already appealing to and drive up their margins instead of actually venturing out to areas where they may need to moderate their messaging.
Click to expand...

Thats the thing, I think Presidential races would be a hybrid of competing for states through the Senate and local regions through the House.
 
G

Geg

Member
tumblr_oe1chwe1431rp4sdgo1_1280.jpg
 
F

Felix Lighter

Member
Teggy said:
Trump put air quotes around "president" when referring to Obama today.
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He's still a birther. His announced change of stance was one of his campaigns only successes at getting the man to say something he didn't want to. During that first debate the birther question was what shattered his brain. He desperately wanted to just yell "I wasn't wrong!"
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Felix Lighter said:
He's still a birther. His announced change of stance was one of his campaigns only successes at getting the man to say something he didn't want to. During that first debate the birther question was what shattered his brain. He desperately wanted to just yell "I wasn't wrong!"
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I wouldn't be shocked it at one of Trump's rallies coming he just says "The President wasn't born in the US."

I can see it. He's been unhinged as fuck and peddling conspiracies. Also it seems like he hasn't been using his teleprompter.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
rjinaz said:
I used to like Ben Stein a lot. Now he's become this angry man.

At least he is taking back his support for Trump now.
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educated conservative men who deny climate change are pure scum,

they know that climate change is real but they deny it simply because they are Decepticons who just want to plunder the Earth's resources
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Next time you question why a pollster would intentionally push for outlier results, look at how much attention the LA Times poll and the people behind it are getting.
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
You know, with Trump pushing the drug test thing today, I'm actually feeling pretty certain that the next oppo will be video of him doing blow.
 
F

Felix Lighter

Member
Boke1879 said:
Well Paul Ryan. Via a spokesperson mind you. Said he believe the election will be carried out fairly.
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Paul Ryan's balls were chopped off by Trump this week. I guess this is as much as we can expect from the man from here on out, even with his party's Presidential candidate a quarter step from calling for a violent uprising.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Felix Lighter said:
Paul Ryan's balls were chopped off by Trump this week. I guess this is as much as we can expect from the man from here on out, even with his party's Presidential candidate a quarter step from calling for a violent uprising.
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It's just funny. Because he's going to be asked a lot of questions and he'll have to publicly say he feels the election will be fair. Then he'll have to answer about drug use. Although Ryan did say he isn't going to defend Trump. We'll see.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Cerium said:
Fox News map:

CunLRkeUsAIwfP6.jpg
Click to expand...
Such a dramatic difference from the past two cycles. I remember news outlets doing anything they could to pretend that Obama was under 270, keeping just enough states out of the Blue column to maintain a level of suspense.

==

And I think I dislike Paul Ryan to just about the same magnitude as I do Trump. He has that fake "reasonable" image he's trying to maintain, but he's a damn snake.
 
M

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Vahagn said:
Even here they have to basically sell to their vriewers that conservatives are better. Look at all the "lean Dem" states that Trump has no chance on earth in winning.
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Actually I find this chart downright reasonable. Extraordinarily reasonable for a Fox News map.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
@GreenPartyUS
Reasons not to vote for #HillaryBecause she:
✔️Rigged a primary
✔️Bought the media
✔️Wall Street bought her
✔️Wants WWIII
✔️Pushes fracking
Click to expand...

woah hillary wants wwiii
 
Flying Toaster

Flying Toaster

Member
Cerium said:
Fox News map:

CunLRkeUsAIwfP6.jpg
Click to expand...

I want everyone to known that as an Arizonian I am proud we are a tossup. The Clinton support in my area is crazy as my district is upper class ivy league educated bloodsucking rich folks.

Anecdotal but a lot of conservative voters in my area view this as a moral/ethical longterm election and cannot and will not vote for Trump. They are not going third party because they actually see 4-8 years of continuing Obama's legacy as a positive.
 
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