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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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CoffeeJanitor
Member
+7 prediction looking good
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I've never been triggered by lights but that gave me a headache.
Dude's twitter page has a pinned tweet of him simulating sex with his wife while she has a murdoch mask on. He's very strange
Lord_Byron28
Member
Trump is deterring many republicans from voting. Given voter turn out for non-presidential elections, I can see many otherwise faithful republicans sitting this one out.
Also the new generation of republicans seem even worse as they've been brainwashed over the past 8 years and now have a voice with Trump and the tea party republicans.
shinra-bansho
Member
I stopped watching scandal because it was Nate Silver tier trash.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump is down 7 now, but he's on tilt and could do himself even more harm moving forward as he lashes out.
Hillary+12
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Late to this, but yeah, those states are going to trend blue later on. Even if the white millennials leave, the older population will still die and black people in these states (due to systemic racism, poor aid from the state, and general poverty) will still be here. The more or less fixed black population here in MS (I think the birth/death rates of black Mississippians is pretty close to stable) will grow as a percentage of the overall state as white people leave or die.
This won't help with the House so much since black people in MS (don't know about other Southern states) are all in the district that covers the Delta, and that's already held by Bennie Thompson (hard lock). But the governor's mansion and the Senate seats could flip one day. That's way more important than the EVs for the Presidential race.
I'd be heart-warmed if this toward a cause that wasn't carrying water for the Cheeto fascist and fucking over LGBT people.
PeteZaTheHutt
Member
I don't know. I remember this one election that I saw where one of the candidates was caught saying about the voters that he played them like a harp from hell. They all started throwing tomatoes, eggs and lettuce at him. He literally had to retreat into the sewers.
So I finally started Hillbilly Elegy and man, is it good. J.D. Vance's take on the problems of white working class America are sobering. He argues that a large part of the problem stems from a lack of personal agency, poor work habits, us-vs-them mentality, and a penchant for violence and addiction. He goes into how simply bringing back good jobs will not solve the cultural issues that the community face.
It's sad/terrifying to think that this block of voters is not going anywhere.
It's sad/terrifying to think that this block of voters is not going anywhere.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
It's the NCGOP (which is the worst state political party in America) so it's super terrible for that, but it's a good political move.
brianmcdoogle
Member
Were you triggered, or were you woke? Now, are you shook?
Yeah, that was an odd video, to say the least.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Trump is down 7 now, but he's on tilt and could do himself even more harm moving forward as he lashes out.
Hillary+12
7-9 is a reasonable expectation with the battlefield as it stands now. I think a 10+ win crosses a psychological threshold that causes a new level of chaos in the Conservative/GOP ranks.
Except that voting block doesn't favor Trump as much as has been portrayed.
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/15/13286498/donald-trump-voters-race-economic-anxiety
BreezyLimbo
Banned
So are we predicting the next Trump 'Bomb' will drop tomorrow?
Considering-
Start of the week news cycle
Last chance before last debate
Considering-
Start of the week news cycle
Last chance before last debate
Oddly called a battleground poll but surveyed 1000 voters nationally. Last poll had HRC up by 2. Obama now at 53% approval. Dem 47 - Rep 42 on congressional ballot, no change since last poll unfortunately.
I can be convinced. If insurance covers the fire and they just pour the dollars into promo for Trump or HB2, though... fucking a. Give your heads a shake.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Will Aleppo pull in 5-8% on Election Day or will he cede voters to the big tickets?
He's the key to a 50+% win
He's the key to a 50+% win
brianmcdoogle
Member
Hey, so may I ask a serious question about downballot stuff that you guys might know and will save me time from looking it up for myself?
What is the discrepancy in Presidential years with the difference between voting for the President and voting for Senate/House? Like, in a county, what percentage of the voting population votes for the President and what percentage votes for the Senate/House? I assume some people just show up to vote for President and nothing else, but I don't know how big that gap is. Nor do I know the differences in demographic or party breakdown on who would vote for President and not Senate/House (though I could guess).
Anyway, just wondering.
What is the discrepancy in Presidential years with the difference between voting for the President and voting for Senate/House? Like, in a county, what percentage of the voting population votes for the President and what percentage votes for the Senate/House? I assume some people just show up to vote for President and nothing else, but I don't know how big that gap is. Nor do I know the differences in demographic or party breakdown on who would vote for President and not Senate/House (though I could guess).
Anyway, just wondering.
A Link to the Past
Banned
These are much better edits
So CNN had a segment from their Your Money Your Vote special where a white dude from Ohio said he was voting for Trump because he wanted to do away with all the government handouts from Obama that were screwing up the economy. This is in spite of the fact that he lives in government provided housing. He says his situation is "temporary" and he's not like the others mooching since he's looking for work.
Another guy who is a business owner is voting for Trump saying the economy was just terrible, this is in light of his business seeing record growth and revenue increases during the Obama administration having experienced losses under Bush and with the recession.
I think there might be something fundamentally flawed with the education system in this country, how else can someone so wholeheartedly and excitedly vote against their own interests? I mean can it really just come down to dog whistle race politics that make these folks vote this way?
Another guy who is a business owner is voting for Trump saying the economy was just terrible, this is in light of his business seeing record growth and revenue increases during the Obama administration having experienced losses under Bush and with the recession.
I think there might be something fundamentally flawed with the education system in this country, how else can someone so wholeheartedly and excitedly vote against their own interests? I mean can it really just come down to dog whistle race politics that make these folks vote this way?
You're describing an undervote - people voting for just one race and nothing else. Generally the Presidential race has the most votes because it's the most publicized, and downballot races have less votes. As for the exact amount, I could look at recent races but I'm on mobile.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
Politics are like sports teams. Nobody gives a fuck about the strengths or weaknesses of either side, they're always going to go for their team. Like even if that team sucks, and keeps losing, and is just horrible, people will still keep saying 'This year is my teams year'.
It's sad.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Oh, NCGOP was the one that started bathroompocalypse, right?
RustyNails
Member
No it's beyond red team blue team. These idiots who are prospering and voting against their own interests by voting for Trump are hiding their liking for a terrible fascist. Trump has riled them enough about the immigrants, crime and how other countries are taking advantage of them.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
It's all about race politics. These people just think that minorities are getting money without earning it, and that a Republican would take that money back and let the white people have it. When that business owner was having trouble under Bush, that was because of the economy and not Bush's fault. Now that he's doing well, it's because of his own bootstrap pulling, and he'd be doing better if those darn black people would get out of the public housing (but not the down-on-their-luck white people in public housing who need the break).
It's literally impossible to view virtually any issue in the US without considering race. This nation was built on it (literally), and we're still trying to fix these problems. Right now, we're seeing the growing pains of moving away from "Yeah, Uncle Joe's kinda racist, but we just don't talk about it" and towards "Uncle Joe's kind of a shithead, let's call him on this BS next time he brings it up." Shaming these people will work eventually, but first we have to bear their tantrums before they calm down and shut up (taking their racism to the grave with as little evangelizing as possible).
To add to my previous post, in Ohio in 2012, about 5.58 million votes for President and 5.45 votes in the Senate race, so 100k+ undervotes. In North Dakota, 323k votes for President and 322.5k votes for Senate, so only 500 undervotes. I think the less people care about the downballot, the more undervotes there will be, but also if it's not competitive then less people will be compelled to vote.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I'm done. I'm fucking done. People can go one second decrying the modern GOP as a bastion of hate and violence but turn around the next and insist its our job to extend an olive branch. I don't know about you but if a campaign station run by the KKK burned down I would not be terribly pressed to rebuild it, and the modern GOP is a hairs breadth away
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Thread moves so fast that I'm sure this has been discussed, none the less...
http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/16/midnight-sun-exclusive-new-poll-shows-trump-clinton-tied-alaska/
New ALASKA poll....
Two months ago...
I would love to hear about Clinton making a stop in Alaska one day.
http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/16/midnight-sun-exclusive-new-poll-shows-trump-clinton-tied-alaska/
New ALASKA poll....
Two months ago...
I would love to hear about Clinton making a stop in Alaska one day.
brianmcdoogle
Member
Maybe she'll make Pitbull a surrogate and have him drop in at a Walmart.
whyamihere
Banned
I realized how privileged I am to live in a good state for lgbt people after posting that Hill article in the NCGOP attack thread. Even if it took a while to get a public accommodations bill into law. Sometimes it takes making a silly statement/comment to make you realize that.
Racism is a huge part of it. But even if racism isn't the primary driver for why somebody votes in a certain way, you have to understand that when people answer these questions, they aren't necessarily giving you the true reason for why they vote a certain way. They're giving you a reason that sounds compelling to them. It's not necessarily a flaw in the education system (though we have plenty of those). More fundamentally it's a flaw of human psychology. We are very good at inventing stories to explain our behaviors after the fact.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Donating money is a way to show that future political violence will be counter-productive and signals that you do not support political violence.
Those are important things.
Those are important things.
If hilary gets above 50% of the vote nationally she will be anywere between 50% and 52% of the vote.
You cannot condone violence as a means of political expression. People should reject the attack on the NC GOP center for the same reasons they should reject those Trump supporters calling for a revolution should they lose the election.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
This is a failing of left, I feel.
Like...the GOP has done and said heinous shit. Despite that, it's always the Dems giving quarter when it comes to partisanship, it's always the Dems who have had to be Center-left more than the opposition being Center-right.
It's like...there's an air of 'We must treat everyone equally' when it comes to the left side. This includes the racist, backwards, GOP base. The only reason why it seems Democrats have gotten their teeth back, is because Trump is an easy target. But it's only been what, this last month that they've started really calling the GOPs shit out? And even then, their attacks are 'Well you support Trump so this and that...well your party elected Trump, this and that...'. After this year it's going to revert back to what, 'we must treat everyone equally and we're going to help everyone?' while the GOP takes their quarter and keeps attacking?
It annoys me, as well. The place burnt down, oh well, they should stop peddling hate. Who gives a fuck about there poor building. Oh, someone called them Nazis? Good, that's what they basically want to be at this point: 'Deport all the minorities! Fuck black people and their troubles! We shall make America White again!' .
Honestly, if more GOP buildings burnt down, I wouldn't blink. They are an institution of hate; Their main trade has become the festering of this hate; They've never extended an olive branch, only burnt them down themselves.
Now, I'm sure there are Republicans who are fiscal conservatives. The truth is though, the modern GOP is not for you. Find something else that doesn't have decades of hate sewn into it. What you say is 'Government putting their tentacles all over our lives', is what we call 'The government trying to make things fair and equal for everyone no matter their race, creed, or religion.'
And I'm sure there are Republicans on this site. I'm sure you're the fiscal conservative type. I'm sure you don't want the big bad government mingling into your affairs. But the reality is, your party isn't about that. They want to impose more control upon their citizens. They want to control society. What restrooms people can use. Whether you can marry a person or not of the same sex. Whether you can move to America and live here. Whether you can freely practice your religion without being punished in an institution for choosing to not say 'Under god'. Whether you can protest the treatment of minorities without being lambasted by mainly white folk. That is the Republican way. That is the party you support.
Sorry for the rant, but yeah the GOP just fucking sucks.
whyamihere
Banned
Also, if Hillary is pulling into the single digits of unfavorable, can we retire this "both candidates are deeply unfavorable" talking point?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Not only are organizations like ANTIFA (assuming they did the bombing) bad, they're also not really helpful in achieving their political goals...
BreezyLimbo
Banned
I don't know if only voting is the answer.
The GOP has answered with voter suppression and a general racist institution. They've done shit. I don't condone the violence that may befall people, but I'm not going to cry for a burnt building.
Finale Fireworker
Member
Did WikiLeaks pull out all the stops and publish Julian Assange's dream journal yet?
whyamihere
Banned
Don't look now, but Hillary's favorables haven't been this high since June 15th, 2015. Her unfavorables haven't been this low since February 15th, 2016.
(She's at 45.5/53.3)
(She's at 45.5/53.3)
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