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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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This is pretty dumb about transgender civil rights in America.
Okay, I downplayed it a little too much. But seriously, yes or no, is there any group in North Carolina that has the right to firebomb the GOP HQ? Because I don't think trans people can claim that.

I'm not responding to your criticism of firebombing, I'm responding to you downplaying what happens to trans people in our society. That you consider it a matter of "comfortable bathroom usage" speaks volumes on how much you need to read up on these issues.
Ok, I downplayed. Sorry.

I'm just telling you why I don't think all violence is morally indefensible.

For the record, being that we don't know the purpose behind the bombing, I'm not in favor of it morally, and whatever the purpose, I condemn it as incredibly stupid strategically.
We know the reason! They wrote it on the side of the building!
 

Ecotic

Member
After the debate Hillary should focus on North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and Arizona. In a +8 race she can win all those states and it would be a comfortable victory. The next closest state is Georgia which is only going to be won if there's a late break above +10 due to a Trump collapse for some reason. Although Georgia would be the prize of the night that would put her above 370 so if there is a late break I would go for a big rally or two in Atlanta in the final week. I don't think the lone Nebraska vote is worth a trip.
 
It was down to 2% at times but the last poll I saw for SC was Trump up by 4, same with Indiana. So it could happen, but its hard to tell. Georgia and Missouri are much more likely tho

Indiana's been kind of interesting to me - I did a handful of 270towin simulations, and Indiana turned blue more often than Missouri, South Carolina, or Georgia.

Though Iowa went red way more often than Indiana, so 270towin might have a not-great simulator.
 
After the debate Hillary should focus on North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and Arizona. In a +8 race she can win all those states and it would be a comfortable victory. The next closest state is Georgia which is only going to be won if there's a late break above +10 due to a Trump collapse for some reason. Although Georgia would be the prize of the night that would put her above 370 so if there is a late break I would go for a big rally or two in Atlanta. I don't think the lone Nebraska vote is worth a trip.

She should focus on giving rallies in R+5 districts and not worry about states. She's already won.
 

royalan

Member
She should focus on giving rallies in R+5 districts and not worry about states. She's already won.

I agree with this.

Hillary should definitely not give the impression of having this in the bag, she still needs to be out campaigning. But she's ahead by enough that running a safe campaign entirely focused on shoring up the Obama states would be a waste of a lead and the most incompetent Republican nominee in American history.

Go for broke. Campaign in states that will help us take back as many Senate and House seats as possible. All she needs to do at this point to keep her lead safe is stay visible. Campaigning for the downticket accomplishes that.
 
Just an update on the margin in swing states (anything where the margin <10%) in the polls-plus, from 538 (has not updated with the GWU poll yet):

Michigan: D+9.3
Virginia: D+9.1
Wisconsin: D+8.2
Minnesota: D+8.2
New Hampshire: D+7.8
Pennsylvania: D+7.5
Colorado: D+7.4
Nevada: D+4.5
Florida: D+4.1
North Carolina: D+3.1
Ohio: D+2.3
Iowa: D+2.0
Arizona: D+0.3
Maine's 2nd: D+0.2

Nebraska's 2nd: R+0.1
Georgia: R+3.6
Alaska: R+4.4
Missouri: R+4.7
South Carolina: R+6.0
Indiana: R+6.7
Texas: R+6.7
Kansas: R+8.0
South Dakota: R+9.1
 
Ahh, yes, the classic swing state of South Dakota.

"Do you want a 'You're Hired' president or a 'You're Fired' president?" is even worse than Trumped-Up Trickle Down, Kaine is adorably corny, omg.
 

sazzy

Member
So it looks like Assange's internet access was cut. Extradition time?

people on r/donald seem to think that the british police have stormed the ecuadorian embassy, diplomatic status revoked, assange is dead, miles-wide telecommunications blackout around the embassy, and world war 3 is about to start.

so it must be true.
 

mo60

Member
After the debate Hillary should focus on North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and Arizona. In a +8 race she can win all those states and it would be a comfortable victory. The next closest state is Georgia which is only going to be won if there's a late break above +10 due to a Trump collapse for some reason. Although Georgia would be the prize of the night that would put her above 370 so if there is a late break I would go for a big rally or two in Atlanta in the final week. I don't think the lone Nebraska vote is worth a trip.
She does not need to win by 10 points nationally to take Georgia.More like a 8 or 8.5 win nationally.

Also Alaska was more an R+15 state in the last presidential election then an R+30.It may not become way more republican in 2020.The same applies with Texas.Also,whoever is the next republican presidential candidate is not guaranteed to win Utah by 30 points. If the republicans elect another candidate that does not appeal to people that well in that state utah may end up as a potential battleground state again.
 
Let's check in and see if Duterte is still a psychopath who will die of lead poisoning.

Rodrigo Duterte, the president of the Philippines, has referred to innocent people and children as “collateral damage” in his war on drugs because police use automatic weapons when confronting criminals.

Asked in an interview with al-Jazeera about minors caught up in the violence, Duterte said those cases would be investigated but added that police can kill hundreds of civilians without criminal liability.

He gave a hypothetical example of an officer using an M16 rifle when dealing with a “gangster” who wields a pistol. “When they meet, they exchange fire. With the policeman and the M16, it’s one burst, brrr, and [he] hits 1,000 people there and they die.

“It could not be negligence because you have to save your life. It could not be recklessness because you have to defend yourself,” he said.






“You destroy my country, I’ll kill you. And it’s a legitimate thing. If you destroy our young children, I will kill you. That is a very correct statement. There is nothing wrong in trying to preserve the interest of the next generation.

“In my country there is no law that says I cannot threaten criminals,” he added. “I do not care what the human rights guys say. I have a duty to preserve the generation. If it involves human rights, I don’t give a shit. I have to strike fear.”

Yeah, he definitely still is.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...es-drug-war-are-collateral-damage?CMP=soc_568
 

Ecotic

Member
She does not need to win by 10 points nationally to take Georgia.More like a 8 or 8.5 win nationally.

Well it's about an 8 point race right now and she's behind in Georgia by about 3.5, I really don't see how she wins it unless she secures an 11 or 12 point victory.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
The John Oliver segment on 3rd parties is just a fantastic public service.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3O01EfM5fU

Bottom line: The lack of any scrutiny by the media or elsewhere is probably the only reason they have greater than 1% of the vote.
(Well, for Trash Candidate Jill Stein, I don't know what the actual percentage of people who want to switch to the anarchy tax policy of Gary).
 
crazy how Jill Stein and Trump both consistently love winking at conspiracy theorists! the far left wouldn't be as terrible as they are if they were actually getting people elected, but they aren't!
 

Joeytj

Banned
The John Oliver segment on 3rd parties is just a fantastic public service.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3O01EfM5fU

Bottom line: The lack of any scrutiny by the media or elsewhere is probably the only reason they have greater than 1% of the vote.
(Well, for Trash Candidate Jill Stein, I don't know what the actual percentage of people who want to switch to the anarchy tax policy of Gary).

AT LAST.

I'll be sharing the shit out of that segment. And WTF at Gary Johnson being an objectophile with Mt. Everest.
 

thebloo

Member
people on r/donald seem to think that the british police have stormed the ecuadorian embassy, diplomatic status revoked, assange is dead, miles-wide telecommunications blackout around the embassy, and world war 3 is about to start.

so it must be true.

If we would actually start a world war due to someone like Assange, then we should really use nukes. Because humanity is done.
 

Veelk

Banned
I'm surprised that Jon Oliver says there was legitimately concerning stuff about the leaked letters from wikileaks.

I don't read them myself, but every thread seems to end with a series of itsfuckingnothing.jpg posts.

I do agree that Hillary isn't perfect, but I can't help question the sanity of anyone who doesn't see her as CLEARLY the best option by far. The lesser evils rhetoric is just another variation of the 'both sides' bullshit.
 

Debirudog

Member
I'm not happy with Oliver insuating about Clinton being shady with her transcripts when there's been essentially nothing out of line to who she is as a candidate. It's meaningless conjecture on his part.
 

Pixieking

Banned
I'm not happy with Oliver insuating about Clinton being shady with her transcripts when there's been essentially nothing out of line to who she is as a candidate. It's meaningless conjecture on his part.

Not seen it yet, but maybe it's just a sop to the audience who are still unsure on her? A candidate who's slightly dubious can be seen to be better than a candidate who's whiter-than-white, just because human nature will always think there's something bad about someone. If that "bad" is obvious, it makes people think better of someone than if that "bad" is hidden.
 

Zackat

Member
I'm not happy with Oliver insuating about Clinton being shady with her transcripts when there's been essentially nothing out of line to who she is as a candidate. It's meaningless conjecture on his part.
He is a comedian criticizing someone. Why get offended about it? A legitimate concern about Hillary is she is way too secretive. The fact that the transcripts were a big fat nothingburger gives even more evidence to that grievance.

I'm upset with how he pronounced Tupac.

2 pack? Come on John.
 

Veelk

Banned
He is a comedian criticizing someone. Why get offended about it? A legitimate concern about Hillary is she is way too secretive. The fact that the transcripts were a big fat nothingburger gives even more evidence to that grievance.

Because he's not merely a comedian, but a news reporter, despite his claims to the contrary. It'd be intellectually disingenuous to say that people do not watch his show to be informed on events. So when he fails in some area, like insinuating Hillary Clinton does indeed have some skeletons in those speeches, that's a problem.
 
Paulsen up 11 points in MN-3 according to SurveryUSA via KSTP.

"After several months of withering attacks trying to tie him to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, Erik Paulsen holds a commanding lead in his race with 3rd District challenger Terri Bonoff. In our exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, Paulsen leads Bonoff 49 percent to 38 percent. Another 13 percent remain undecided."

"The survey included 29 percent Republicans, 25 percent Democrats and 43 percent who identified themselves as independents. The poll was conducted by telephone and includes both landline and cell phone users."

The race has been in the lean Republican column. If the Democrats expect to regain the majority in the house...this seat would definitely be one that flipped.

Tonight poll results from MN-2, the open seat(R-Klein) where Angie Craig faces off against mini-Trump Jason Lewis.

Guess the good news from the poll is that Paulsen is below 50 percent. One would have to question how they came up with "43 percent Independents." From past memory, I also don't think SurveryUSA has the greatest track record in MN. I think this race will be much closer than 11 points.
 
Hillary's favorables are still below just about every President-elect at the time of their election, but there is still a decent amount of time left for her to pull into positive territory at or before the election.

Comparing her favorables to Presidents in the middle of their terms is pointless.
 

Veelk

Banned
Hillary's favorables are still below just about every President-elect at the time of their election, but there is still a decent amount of time left for her to pull into positive territory at or before the election.

Comparing her favorables to Presidents in the middle of their terms is pointless.

I doubt that's gonna happen this election. Maybe next one, after she's proven her mettle as president.
 
I doubt that's gonna happen this election. Maybe next one, after she's proven her mettle as president.

Yeah, but,

0aTJdiah.jpg
 

Diablos

Member
Get ready for failure.
Then I think we all need to prepare for the inevitable end of the ACA. Hillary is going to be backed into a corner on this one. Even states like Minnesota are having big problems. Without a Dem House to legitimately fix these issues, the House GOP will do all the "fixing" on their terms and it will not be pretty.
 

Effect

Member
I really should avoid looking at Gaf first thing in the morning. Seeing wiki anything so early is not good for the health and it's to early to bedwet about anything.
 
SURPRISE

Jake ShermanVerified account
&#8207;@JakeSherman
SIREN- Jared Kushner is discussing Trump TV w top media deal maker.


https://www.ft.com/content/7dc39954-940e-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582

Trump son-in-law makes approach on post-election TV start-up
Jared Kushner has contacted Aryeh Bourkoff, head of boutique firm known for media deals

Donald Trump&#8217;s son-in-law Jared Kushner has informally approached one of the media industry&#8217;s top dealmakers about the prospect of setting up a Trump television network after the presidential election in November.

Mr Kushner &#8212; an increasingly influential figure in the billionaire&#8217;s presidential campaign &#8212; contacted Aryeh Bourkoff, the founder and chief executive of LionTree, a boutique investment bank, within the past couple of months, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

Their conversation was brief and has not progressed since, the people said. Mr Bourkoff and Mr Kushner both declined to comment.

...




Mark Murray &#8207;@mmurraypolitics 21m21 minutes ago
NBC/WSJ/Telemundo oversample of Latino voters: Clinton is leading Trump 70%-17% in a two-way race.

Mark Murray &#8207;@mmurraypolitics 18m18 minutes ago
And in a 4way race, it's Clinton 67%, Trump 17% among likely voters, per the NBC/WSJ/Telemundo oversample of Latino voters

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...maintains-50-point-lead-among-latinos-n667326
 
I hope nobody will finance his network and he just continues to erode into desperation and then falls into an aquarium tank where he is eaten by sea turtles. This is my ideal outcome of the election.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Kushner seems to be purely driven by money. How could a guy raised democrat be party to trumps ridiculous anti Semitism?

Or maybe it's power. I think his behavior is obscene.
 
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