• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

Status
Not open for further replies.
Retaliation should be exposing the meddling of foreign elections and directly supporting far right parties throughout Europe and then push for sanctions.
 

Boke1879

Member
Trump Tv is trending on twitter right now. Don't know how much play it'll get. I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but this man is clearly looking past the election now and trying to establish a viewer base.

And reading about Fox news it seems they want to expand the news side of things and the opinion part of their programming wasn't mentioned. Now I don't expect Fox to be fair and balanced but it's best for them to focus on news.

If a Trump network is in the works it'll take the crazies from Fox no doubt.
 
Got a call from a Clinton campaign rep asking me to go out and vote early "because it really helps the campaign".

I can go vote early, but I was planning on voting on actual election day because I prefer to do it that way and I feel like an active citizen and stuff.

But I was curious...why does it "help the campaign?" Ohio here. Just wondering.

Well, a few things. Once you vote, you're locked. We don't have to spend anymore time harassing you. So, it helps target GOTV. Also, let's say you go to vote today and there's an issue with your ID or whatever .You have weeks to get it fixed. If you go the day of, there could be unforeseen issues that impact your ability to vote. Plus, i'ts a hell of a lot faster. :)
 

Damaniel

Banned
Got a call from a Clinton campaign rep asking me to go out and vote early "because it really helps the campaign".

I can go vote early, but I was planning on voting on actual election day because I prefer to do it that way and I feel like an active citizen and stuff.

But I was curious...why does it "help the campaign?" Ohio here. Just wondering.

An early vote represents a voter that can't change his or her mind, regardless of circumstances or scandals.
 

Cyanity

Banned
Depends on which betting market site you're looking at. Betfair, electionbettingodds and Predictwise all have had Trump's numbers in the gutter since the debate.

Also don't put too much stock into betting markets. Their pools are pretty small so even just a couple of people moving their money creates significant shifts in the numbers. I've always felt that it's better to take a look at who they have winning rather than percentages.

Also the people slapping down and throwing money around in the betting markets are basically the now-cast, ie: overreact to everything. And they've more than shown in the past that they aren't as smart as they think they are.

Where can I go to throw down some money on Hillary winning?
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Early voting makes me irrationally nervous. For whatever reason I feel better casting the ballot the day of then sending it in ahead of time. I guess part of that comes from uncertainty about just what happens when I mail a ballot in
 

Wilsongt

Member
View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter

David A. Clarke, Jr. ✔@SheriffClarke
It's incredible that our institutions of gov, WH, Congress, DOJ, and big media are corrupt & all we do is bitch. Pitchforks and torches time
11:30 AM - 15 Oct 2016
4,116

The irony here is that he called BLM thugs and other nasty things, yet appears more than willing to start the same type of nonsense he accuses then of doing.

Fucking.
Idiot.
 
Got a call from a Clinton campaign rep asking me to go out and vote early "because it really helps the campaign".

I can go vote early, but I was planning on voting on actual election day because I prefer to do it that way and I feel like an active citizen and stuff.

But I was curious...why does it "help the campaign?" Ohio here. Just wondering.

They can then follow up with you, verify that you've already voted, and the campaign never has to worry about you ever again. Instead of your name coming up on call lists, instead other names of people who actually need coaxing to get to the polls come up.

Now repeat this for 40-50% of the targeted voters by the campaign. It makes the last few days of get out the vote so much better.
 
Early voting makes me irrationally nervous. For whatever reason I feel better casting the ballot the day of then sending it in ahead of time. I guess part of that comes from uncertainty about just what happens when I mail a ballot in

Your state/county board of elections/office of secretary should be able to verify receipt and status of submitted ballots.
For mine in Gwinnett county GA, all I have to do is log into the elections site. Everything is tracked and time stamped from when they send it to you, to when they process it.
 
Is it happening??

Cu-F-W_WAAAU21E.jpg

"Delegates from the Southern states shouldn't count since they'll never go Blue in the General Election anyway."

Maybe it's a good thing the candidate who made in-roads with Black Democrats over the past 20 years won?
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Your state/county board of elections/office of secretary should be able to verify receipt and status of submitted ballots.
For mine in Gwinnett county GA, all I have to do is log into the elections site. Everything is tracked and time stamped from when they send it to you, to when they process it.

Do they count them right when they get them?
 

HylianTom

Banned
I wish more folks would vote early. The lines on Election Day are unreasonably long and can take hours to get through. And this is deliberate on the part of the Republicans who run these swing states.
 
IF YOU"RE A DEM VOTE FOR MCMUFFIN IN UTAH!
I doubt Hillary is going to get those Electoral Votes. If I'm a pro-Clinton PAC with $50,000 to spare, I'ma drop an ad in favor of McMuffin. She doesn't need the 6 EV. Trump does. If you can peel 5% off of Trump.....that'd be a big win.
 
Paulsen up 11 points in MN-3 according to SurveryUSA via KSTP.



The race has been in the lean Republican column. If the Democrats expect to regain the majority in the house...this seat would definitely be one that flipped.

Tonight poll results from MN-2, the open seat(R-Klein) where Angie Craig faces off against mini-Trump Jason Lewis.

Guess the good news from the poll is that Paulsen is below 50 percent. One would have to question how they came up with "43 percent Independents." From past memory, I also don't think SurveryUSA has the greatest track record in MN. I think this race will be much closer than 11 points.
I really hate that Paulson is so good at this. He presents himself as a moderate even though he's one of the most conservative members of Congress, and everyone just sort of accepts it.

I'm hoping they're just off like they have been (they seem to have trouble with House races). I expect this race will go similarly to MN-2 in 2012, where Kline only won by 8 points or so - much closer than we've seen before, but ultimately this race won't be truly winnable until the incumbent steps down.

Hope they show a Craig lead tonight.
 

Boke1879

Member
I doubt Hillary is going to get those Electoral Votes. If I'm a pro-Clinton PAC with $50,000 to spare, I'ma drop an ad in favor of McMuffin. She doesn't need the 6 EV. Trump does. If you can peel 5% off of Trump.....that'd be a big win.

Completely agree. Drop an ad in favor of him. Take those votes away from Trump.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I doubt Hillary is going to get those Electoral Votes. If I'm a pro-Clinton PAC with $50,000 to spare, I'ma drop an ad in favor of McMuffin. She doesn't need the 6 EV. Trump does. If you can peel 5% off of Trump.....that'd be a big win.

"Let's be honest: Trump's going to lose. Whether he wins Utah or not won't affect the final result. But you can send a message to the GOP about nominating this type of candidate. You can still get through this election with your dignity intact by voting your conscience."

(Something roughly like that)
 

Emarv

Member
2016 has been an insane year, but the craziest thing that could really happen is if a guy named Evan McMullin actually won a state.

It's the perfect cherry on top to this stupid year.
 
I doubt Hillary is going to get those Electoral Votes. If I'm a pro-Clinton PAC with $50,000 to spare, I'ma drop an ad in favor of McMuffin. She doesn't need the 6 EV. Trump does. If you can peel 5% off of Trump.....that'd be a big win.

I know this is all hypothetical but wouldn't it be better to run $50K in radio ads in Atlanta, St Louis, or Indianapolis reminding people to go out and vote? Utah is fun for the lulz but there are marginal states where the Dems need to be investing in.
 

Barzul

Member
Got a call from a Clinton campaign rep asking me to go out and vote early "because it really helps the campaign".

I can go vote early, but I was planning on voting on actual election day because I prefer to do it that way and I feel like an active citizen and stuff.

But I was curious...why does it "help the campaign?" Ohio here. Just wondering.

Well your vote is locked in so I'd say they'd definitely prefer you voted now than then.
 
I know this is all hypothetical but wouldn't it be better to run $50K in radio ads in Atlanta, St Louis, or Indianapolis reminding people to go out and vote? Utah is fun for the lulz but there are marginal states where the Dems need to be investing in.

There's nothing worth fighting for in Utah other than potentially Mia Love's seat. McMullin winning the state does nothing for Democrats other than embarrass Trump and it may actually hurt them if McMullin increases Republican turnout.
 

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
I doubt Hillary is going to get those Electoral Votes. If I'm a pro-Clinton PAC with $50,000 to spare, I'ma drop an ad in favor of McMuffin. She doesn't need the 6 EV. Trump does. If you can peel 5% off of Trump.....that'd be a big win.

McMullin getting those 6 EV's only matters if it denies Trump 270, in which case Clinton would also be denied 270, and then the vote goes to the House. Wouldn't Trump win a House vote?

Honestly I see very few electoral maps where Utah's 6 EV's matter at all. Clinton or McMullin winning Utah is a nice story but is ultimately meaningless.
 

Thaedolus

Member
What states is he on the ballot for and campaigning in?

Even without being on the ballot in AZ, Mormons are being urged to write him in and I absolutely believe they will based on my social media feeds being inundated with their moral high horse postings about it 🐴

I think he could flip AZ blue.
 

Barzul

Member
Yeah if I was a Democrat in Utah I'd definitely be voting McMullin. Hilary does not need the EV's, heck even in a dream scenario at the start of the cycle she'd never imagine picking them up. If McMullin gets them it just cuts Trump's pathway to 270 even shorter. So yeah Utah Dems back him I'd say.
 
McMullin getting those 6 EV's only matters if it denies Trump 270, in which case Clinton would also be denied 270, and then the vote goes to the House. Wouldn't Trump win a House vote?

Honestly I see very few electoral maps where Utah's 6 EV's matter at all. Clinton or McMullin winning Utah is a nice story but is ultimately meaningless.

Those EVs will never matter because Trump only loses the state in a scenario where Hillary easily wins 270.

This is bizarre. We have a few close polls like this, and then in the CBS/You Gov poll, Trump is up 17 in Utah. I think he will still win, but I hope it's as close as can be.
That CBS/You Gov poll is suspect because:
An earlier YouGov poll tracker, published by CBS news over the weekend showed Trump with a 17 point lead over Clinton in Utah, but the script only prompted respondents with the names of Trump and Clinton, then only if they selected ‘someone else’ offered them Johnson, Stein or McMullin (McMullin scored 20% in that poll).
 

Bowdz

Member
Fuck yeah!

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/obama-holder-redistricting-gerrymandering-229868

As Democrats aim to capitalize on this year’s Republican turmoil and start building back their own decimated bench, former Attorney General Eric Holder will chair a new umbrella group focused on redistricting reform—with the aim of taking on the gerrymandering that’s left the party behind in statehouses and made winning a House majority far more difficult.

The new group, called the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, was developed in close consultation with the White House. President Barack Obama himself has now identified the group—which will coordinate campaign strategy, direct fundraising, organize ballot initiatives and put together legal challenges to state redistricting maps—as the main focus of his political activity once he leaves office.

Though initial plans to be active in this year’s elections fell short, the group has been incorporated as a 527, with Democratic Governors Association executive director Elizabeth Pearson as its president and House Majority PAC executive director Ali Lapp as its vice president. They’ve been pitching donors and aiming to put together its first phase action plan for December, moving first in the Virginia and New Jersey state elections next year and with an eye toward coordination across gubernatorial, state legislative and House races going into the 2018 midterms.
“American voters deserve fair maps that represent our diverse communities—and we need a coordinated strategy to make that happen,” Holder said. “This unprecedented new effort will ensure Democrats have a seat at the table to create fairer maps after 2020."

More at the link.

TLDR, Obama's main post presidential action is going to be helping Dems take back the House and state legislatures.
 

ampere

Member
ITS VOTING DAY (for Georgia at least, early voting)

CHECK UR BALLOTS YAAAALLL

https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_2016_ballot_measures

My take on the 4 statewide ballot measures:

Amendment 1 addresses state intervention in public schools found to be "chronically failing."
State intervention in this case means the governor appointing a person who can go around the elected school superintendent. This sounds pretty bad because making an appointed official able to go around the decisions of an elected official doesn't bode well for accountability. Also, our governor is a fucking idiot
I recommend voting against this amendment

Amendment 2 addresses generating revenue for the Safe Harbor for Sexually Exploited Children Fund.
More penalties for those charged with sexual exploitation of children. I can't find any arguments against this measure. I recommend voting for this amendment.

Amendment 3 addresses replacing the Judicial Qualifications Commission
One of the sponsors of this bill was previously investigated by this commission for making sexual comments to a female attorney. He wants to replace the commission. I recommend voting against this amendment

Amendment 4 addresses the allocation of revenue generated from the sale of fireworks.
Seems fine in principle, and I can't really find anything bad about this one. I recommend voting for this amendment.
 

pigeon

Banned
There's no need for Dems to invest in McMullin in Utah. McMullin will probably win it anyway since he has more upside (less name recognition for the same support) and Romney will probably endorse him. Dems should just play it normally in Utah so that, if somehow McMullin collapses, Hillary can win it at the last moment.
 
Gabriel DebenedettiVerified account
‏@gdebenedetti
Favorability ratings among Hispanics (NBC/WSJ/Telemundo):

MObama +62
BObama +48
HClinton +31
Dems +31
Kaine +13
Pence -6
GOP -41
Trump -67

¡Ay, caramba!


MEGATON

Dan MericaVerified account
‏@danmericaCNN
Michelle Obama will campaign for Hillary Clinton in Arizona soon, a top Democrat tells @jeffzeleny.
 

RoKKeR

Member
Rasmussen aside, McMuffin continues to dominate the conversation in Utah. Had a Convo with my dad yesterday and he said a whole bunch of people are starting to get behind him.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom