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[nature boy]

Post-mortem: how did polling (both state and national) miss this?

States polls are mostly within margin of error, as National polls as well.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

OK, but Obama didn't have to put black issues in the limelight because his identity took care of any need for identity politics. Let's be real-- there was a lot of noise about "he's not really black" or "he's not black enough" but black people made sure to support the first black president. I don't think a white person (especially one with Hillary's history) can afford that.

So question for me is:

1. do you nominate a black man again to leverage the strength of the AA community and have him reach out to poor white people to reverse trump's gains, or

2. do you nominate a centrist / triangulator who will talk exclusively about classically democratic things (Bill Clinton 2.0)? Basically a GOP lite - racism + taxes on wealthy + anti trade / focus on jobs. No mention of social justice, criminal justice, social issues. the appeal to white people is built in but do you risk lower minority turnout?

1 is kind of irrelevant/not the point, but absolutely not 2. You don't run a centrist / triangulator. People roundly rejected them. You run someone like Sanders. Not entirely - you don't need to use the socialist label, no need to make things hard for yourself - but bash Wall Street, bash globalization, excoriate nepotism, cast yourself as an outsider, talk about a system rigged against the ordinary American. It can work if they're black or white, doesn't matter too much, they just need to not be associated with the reigning political classes in any way. Bill Clinton in '92 form would not win under the present situation.

 

[Y2Kev]

"She was unlikeably flawed" is not english in any way whatsoever

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Yeah. This is probably the most inefficiently distributed coalition in the history of the electoral college.

I do return to the idea that - Hillary didn't dictate the terms of the map, Trump did. And that's reflective of the race as a whole. Trump dictated the rules of engagement from day one to November 8. For someone who was supposed to be the prohibitive favorite in the race, her campaign was always reactive. And that's the same story as 08 too. Ugh.

The pro-slavery coalition in 1860 was actually the most inefficiently distributed. Lincoln could have won the presidency with just 40% of the vote if the Democrats only ran one candidate, but they ended up running three partially because they had no shot and deep party rifts.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

I believe in you. Where you at?

New Jersey near philly.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

I can't tell if Im just glad its all over, or if for some reason I think it won't be as bad as I thought it would be. I think I'm just glad the race is over...

This has stretched back to may 2015 for me. From Bernie all the way through last night. At least I can stop thinking about it and gear up for the fight ahead against Trump.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Trump's trade policies will make white working class voters even worse of.

lol

low information voters won the day, it's real simple.

 

[BiggNife]

Do. You. Want. A. Cookie. Or. Something?

Great. She was really unlikeable and that's why she lost.

This is a really dangerous thing to believe, because the inference there is that all we need to do to fix this is not pick a highly disliked person next time. Presto chango WIN! No hard work necessary!

The most palatable answer to an unknown is the one we need to be the most suspicious of, because it's the one we're most likely to be biased towards.

I mean, it's not the only thing, but it's hard to not argue that someone with higher likability ratings would have beaten Trump. The main reason why lost was because we didn't get Obama numbers.

 

[Black Mamba]

They're also afraid of Muslims, African-Americans, Mexicans, etc. They believe in fictitious crimewaves, and of a flood of refugees loyal to ISIS.

Any sort of 'not liking Hillary' is a polite excuse to embrace fear and hatred.

No I don't disagree. I was simply arguing that it's not true Clinton didn't talk about economic issues to working white people.

My point is those policies don't matter.

 

[plagiarize]

The only think I can somewhat hope for is that now Republicans have control of all branches that instead of being obstructionist they decide they can actually invoke positive change and create goodwill and be known as the party that united all the white people, white democrats and white independents to continue to win election after election going forward and stay in power for a long time.

Who am I kidding.

See... you only need to make one small tweak for it to become a whole lot more plausible.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Do. You. Want. A. Cookie. Or. Something?

Great. She was really unlikeable and that's why she lost.

This is a really dangerous thing to believe, because the inference there is that all we need to do to fix this is not pick a highly disliked person next time. Presto chango WIN! No hard work necessary!

The most palatable answer to an unknown is the one we need to be the most suspicious of, because it's the one we're most likely to be biased towards.

It wasn't just the "other" side.

And you can't really just fabricate unfavorables strategically to disqualify people. Ok, maybe over the course of like 40 years.. But not in a cycle. Favorables are just what they are. We ignored them when we shouldn't have.

 

[Frank the Great]

It's finally his time. There's only one candidate who can rally the uneducated white vote for Democrats.

Brian Schweitzer 2020. Triangulate the fuck out of this thing. Get Dems off the gun control message permanently.

 

[Already Torn]

New Jersey near philly.

Dooo ittttt

I can drive an hour and help you out even if I don't live there haha

 

[JetBlackPanda]

Santorum on CNN saying they all knew the plan was Reagan map and the rust belt. Meanwhile in the Clinton campaign.

 

[B-Dubs]

It's finally his time. There's only one candidate who can rally the uneducated white vote for Democrats.

Brian Schweitzer 2020. Triangulate the fuck out of this thing. Get Dems off the gun control message permanently.

Nah, Al Franken 2020.

New Jersey near philly.

If you need some speechwriting or something I can handle it at nights.

 

[Phased]

Dems need to just focus on rebuilding and standing their ground. The GOP owns the country now. If shit goes down economically or policy-wise, it is on them and the Dems need to position themselves to remind EVERYONE that the GOP fucked this up.

I'd love to proven wrong by the GOP, but their track record of late has been abysmal. Again, they turned a $236 billion surplus in 2000 and turned it into a $100 billion deficit in under 2 years. By the end of eight years, they took a booming economy and turned it into a global recession that rivaled the Great Depression. They took a peacetime nation and gave us two ground wars in 3 years. Maybe they will be different this time, but I'm not holding my breath.

So much of it lands on the new Democratic party that emerges after this.

They need to get rid of the fossils. The old Clinton loyalists that have it by a stranglehold. If Dem turnout this year tells us anything it's that Democrats are flat out unenthused with our party if Obama isn't the nominee.

I think if we run a good candidate and we clean house internally we'll get the turnout we need from people who are legitimately excited again.

Most of all though, Democrats need to grow a goddamn spine and not allow themselves to get pushed around so much.

 

[Y2Kev]

1 is kind of irrelevant/not the point, but absolutely not 2. You don't run a centrist / triangulator. People roundly rejected them. You run someone like Sanders. Not entirely - you don't need to use the socialist label, no need to make things hard for yourself - but bash Wall Street, bash globalization, excoriate nepotism, cast yourself as an outsider, talk about a system rigged against the ordinary American. It can work if they're black or white, doesn't matter too much, they just need to not be associated with the reigning political classes in any way. Bill Clinton in '92 form would not win under the present situation.

These people don't really exist. I mean there was like one of them out of 20 that ran this year and Trump was the one. Outsiders with the exposure and charisma to do this?

I take it you don't think this race had anything to do with ideology-- that is, no one cares about left or right, just along class lines. I'm worried about the left getting too... left.

 

[Maxim726X]

I'm stuck at stage 1.

I still can't believe this happened.

Trump is our next president. I thought it was impossible.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

No I don't disagree. I was simply arguing that it's not true Clinton didn't talk about economic issues to working white people.

My point is those policies don't matter.

I think some policies do matter, like police reform, racism, abortion and gun control. This will turn people against you real fast. Abortion is big with a certain group of religious, but the other three will get the "secret voters" out in droves.

 

[Retromelon]

Primary voters do not give a single shit about if someone is from the midwest or if they stand to net them more votes from a demographic in a general election. They want to be fired up and a candidate to believe in. If Warren runs in the primary in 2016 I expect her to win.

2020 i mean

 

[Voysa Reezun]

In 2020, assuming there is an election, the Democratic candidate needs to push American jobs that only Americans can do. Like, really push an infrastructure deal harder than Hillary did and talk about how we want FAIR trade, not free trade and indulge all the shit that a bunch of Midwestern baby boomers who are incapable of changing with the new job market can get into.

And be charismatic and good looking while s/he does it.

It's all about personality and controlling the news cycle at this point.

Meanwhile, I'm going to keep my head down, get another job or two online, and see if I can move somewhere with my online work that isn't here.

 

[Suikoguy]

It wasn't just the "other" side.

And you can't really just fabricate unfavorables strategically to disqualify people. Ok, maybe over the course of like 40 years.. But not in a cycle. Favorables are just what they are. We ignored them when we shouldn't have.

Are you seriously saying favorables don't change over the course of an election?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Sam Hinkie for president.

Well America is tanking!!! All we can do is Trust The Process...

https://twitter.com/JoelEmbiid/status/796258910617370624

Nationalization of banks and destruction of all large corporations through anti-trust laws should probably be part of the more extreme left agenda now.

 

[plagiarize]

I mean, it's not the only thing, but it's hard to not argue that someone with higher likability ratings would have beaten Trump. The main reason why lost was because we didn't get Obama numbers.

We don't know the main reason. We'll likely never know the main reason. The margin as so small that any one of a lot of things that didn't go our way could have flipped the script.

Is it because we didn't get Obama numbers? Is it because we didn't pick a white guy? Is it because we didn't campaign enough in the rural areas of the firewall states that failed? Is it because of Comey? Or Wikileaks? Or voter suppression efforts? Or because Clinton fainted that one time? Or because her VP pick wasn't good enough?

Any one of these could (COULD) have swung things.

I guess that's the nice thing about an election so close. You can pick whatever plausible reason you like for the loss and call that the main one.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

OK, but Obama didn't have to put black issues in the limelight because his identity took care of any need for identity politics. Let's be real-- there was a lot of noise about "he's not really black" or "he's not black enough" but black people made sure to support the first black president. I don't think a white person (especially one with Hillary's history) can afford that.

So question for me is:

1. do you nominate a black man again to leverage the strength of the AA community and have him reach out to poor white people to reverse trump's gains, or

2. do you nominate a centrist / triangulator who will talk exclusively about classically democratic things (Bill Clinton 2.0)? Basically a GOP lite - racism + taxes on wealthy + anti trade / focus on jobs. No mention of social justice, criminal justice, social issues. the appeal to white people is built in but do you risk lower minority turnout?

I think this was a wakeup call about how big 70% of an electorate actually is.

Not sure the country is like 1992 anymore but also I'm not unconvinced that 8 years of a black president radicalized rural white voters and sent them into a voting frenzy

Nominating a black person doesn't magically win over black people or leverage the community. You need a candidate who can build coalitions with multiple grou

 

[Epsilon-delta]

Problem is, Democrats likely will nuke the filibuster too once it benefits them. They've been burned too badly by the abuse of it. It was never meant to be a defacto 60 vote requirement, but Republicans turned it into that. If they don't nuke it, then republicans might be seeing a level of obstruction they've never seen before, as just deserts.

It's not like voters punish politicians for breaking procedural norms. The can of worms is already open.

I agree. This shit is about to get ugly, real quick.

Bipartisanship went out the window with Obama, and a Trump win just adds gasoline to the fire.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

More Santorum truth bombs "these people don't want a govt hand out they want a job or a promise of a job" they understand those voters in those states and we didn't.

Ps. Fuck rick

 

[GutsOfThor]

I can't tell if Im just glad its all over, or if for some reason I think it won't be as bad as I thought it would be. I think I'm just glad the race is over...

This has stretched back to may 2015 for me. From Bernie all the way through last night. At least I can stop thinking about it and gear up for the fight ahead against Trump.

I'm with you in that I'm happy it's over. I feel like I can return to my life now. Since December of last year I've been following this shit and now I can return to silly things like video games. I'm actually thinking about going out and buying an Xbox One this week to take my mind off this lol.

 

[jtb]

Wasn't the WWC one of the bedrocks of the 92 (and 96) Clinton coalition? Not sure we should mistake his current (very diminished) political skills as evidence that he couldn't win in this present political environment. but he is a very different politician, with a very different coalition, from Obama - and from his wife.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

More Santorum truth bombs "these people don't want a govt hand out they want a job or a promise of a job" they understand those voters in those states and we didn't.

Ps. Fuck rick

Right, they want the government to HAND them a fucking job that they can make $30 an hour at.

Fuck those voters, too.

 

[Black Mamba]

So the prevailing theory on al gore was that he didn't hug bill clinton enough. Do we throw that out the window since Hillary hugged the fuck out of Obama?

I mostly agree with crab. I think you have to nominate someone charismatic and somewhat perceived as an outsider. This doesn't mean not a politician.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Wasn't the WWC one of the bedrocks of the 92 (and 96) Clinton coalition? Not sure we should mistake his current (very diminished) political skills as evidence that he couldn't win in this present political environment. but he is a very different politician, with a very different coalition, from Obama - and from his wife.

Bill in 92 was basically sounding like a damn Republican.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

Dooo ittttt

I can drive an hour and help you out even if I don't live there haha

If you need some speechwriting or something I can handle it at nights.

Both tempting offers. Gonna start really looking into it as soon as I get enough free time. Will probably post in whatever reincarnation this thread ends up as when I do find more info

 

[JetBlackPanda]

So now my republican friends get to rub it in my face that the Dow is in record territory.

 

[SexyFish]

If you really consider wanting to change things get involved in politics. Local and state matter. Be the change you want to see. I know it's cheesy but seriously consider it.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Are you seriously saying favorables don't change over the course of an election?

No they can. It's just incredibly unlikely for them to be as negative as they were for someone unless they have 40 years of baggage or they pull next level disqualifying fuckery like Trump did.

 

[FiggyCal]

Warren is charismatic???????

What world is this?

Do you think Hillary Clinton was charismatic?

 

[Trickster]

As a european I am curious about the House and Senate of the american government. Basically from what I thought I understood of american politics, you can't pass something through these places, even if one side has 50% of the votes? Don't they need something like 60%, or how exactly does this work?

I'm curious because right now a lot of people are bringing up the fact that the GOP now controls everything basically.

 

[zero_suit]

So now my republican friends get to rub it in my face that the Dow is in record territory.

Wait a year....

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Putting aside that it would mean actively shitting on the most loyal block of the party, letting the minority vote slip even further than it did this cycle means states like Michigan and Pennsylvania become harder as do many Southern States. I feel a general sentiment is "you can't assume _______" will show up. Dumping key policy issues or talking points will make sure they don't show up. I don't think its easy to figure out this messaging that makes all sides happy.

I will say I'll do anything within legal and moral bounds for a Democratic victory but I would still be pissed if the Democrats let off the gas on these issues and I know plenty of other minority voters - especially millennials - would tell the party to eat a dick if they did that.

I agree with this. I think it is very difficult to find a balance in the messaging the Democrats deliver. But let me put it another way: black voters are ~10% of the electorate. Blue collar workers are ~40%. It seems relatively clear to me which message is going to have to predominate.

 

[B-Dubs]

Both tempting offers. Gonna start really looking into it as soon as I get enough free time. Will probably post in whatever reincarnation this thread ends up as when I do find more info

Hey if you want to do it or have a friend who does, my offer always stands. I really don't mind helping, especially since I feel guilty not getting involved in this cycle more.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

Wait a year....

I know but it stings so bad right now.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Warren would bring both the Bernie and Hillary enthusiastic people. She was my first choice this year, but Bernie was the one that ran, so I went with him.

 

[Epsilon-delta]

I'm stuck at stage 1.

I still can't believe this happened.

Trump is our next president. I thought it was impossible.

All these pollsters should be fired or raked over the coals.

They got it wrong big time in this election.

 

[whyamihere]

So the prevailing theory on al gore was that he didn't hug bill clinton enough. Do we throw that out the window since Hillary hugged the fuck out of Obama?

I mostly agree with crab. I think you have to nominate someone charismatic and somewhat perceived as an outsider. This doesn't mean not a politician.

Agreed. You both are right.

 

[wutwutwut]

So the prevailing theory on al gore was that he didn't hug bill clinton enough. Do we throw that out the window since Hillary hugged the fuck out of Obama?

I mostly agree with crab. I think you have to nominate someone charismatic and somewhat perceived as an outsider. This doesn't mean not a politician.

The Obama approval ratings are a lie.

 

[Dan]

No I don't disagree. I was simply arguing that it's not true Clinton didn't talk about economic issues to working white people.

My point is those policies don't matter.

Sure, but what I'd say is that people finding Clinton "unlikeable" is a mere cover story, not a true reason.

 

[bplewis24]

Which is the most astute rebuttal to the notion that Sanders would have won the firewall states that fell I've seen.

It's really not. And unless we want to move forward with some real takeaways from this election cycle, it's time to stop living in delusion and having a Democratic Echo Chamber. Having a conservative echo chamber is damaging enough to our country.

 

[Dierce]

So any statisticians out there that can explain how so many improbable things keep happening this year? Is it just because of the microcosm we live in where every event seems amplified but even then, why are they so frequent and close to one another.

 

[Black Mamba]

Do you think Hillary Clinton was charismatic?

Not at all