metalslimer
Member
Lol their assess couldn't even be bothered to vote in a damn midterm let alone revolution.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
- Thread starter Y2Kev
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Elaugaufein
Member
You're missing my point. I'm not saying don't try, I'm saying plan appropriately for the occasion. You need to win States in 18/20 to be able to undo gerrymanders and have a shot at the House in future, so focus resources appropriately.
You're not likely to "win" the 2018 Senate either but you should do your best to defend the seats you have and grab the few easy wins.
The above is especially true if you've given up on getting out young voter turnout. If you're trying to shoot the moon , you have to risk missing. If you want to try and win in 2018 then giving up the youth vote is aiming to win by planning to lose.
And you keep assessing the situation, if the Trump government is a disaster, then expand as appropriate. You don't make a static plan now and apply it in 2018 no matter what. Heck, you can even assume Trump will be a disaster as long as you're ready to adjust if it's not.
And that attitude has nothing to do with why you lose midterms, why you lose midterms is that you can't convince you're voters they are important enough to turn out for. Trying to win big while already giving up on a significant voter turnout group isn't going to work because I'm optimistic about it.
Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not. But yes, thats actually a reasonable idea, this is how coalitions work, you have to offer everyone something.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Do we have four years to do this?
Without the presidency the party is in shambles and we need to rebuild it so that if we do take the presidency, it's from a position of legislative strength, and if we don't we can stonewall the GOP agenda for the next 4 years.
shinra-bansho
Member
I mean we're all talking to different points here really.
Half of you are saying that she and the Democratic Party need to appeal to rural and WC whites more.
Whereas half are saying you can't do that. Not anymore. Not while you're still the party of social progress. And they don't want your policy solutions even if you have them when they can just build a wall.
Half of you are saying that she and the Democratic Party need to appeal to rural and WC whites more.
Whereas half are saying you can't do that. Not anymore. Not while you're still the party of social progress. And they don't want your policy solutions even if you have them when they can just build a wall.
I absolutely believe that Comey lost us this election, although in fairness many other hostile actors (Russian intelligence, for example) put us in the position where Comey could do that.
Of course, Comey was trying to prevent a more dangerous leak he thought would come from Trumpist elements at the FBI, but he clearly wasn't successful at his goal.
It is hard for me to accept that I genuinely don't think the results of this election are legitimate, in a very different way from other years.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I agree. The reform needs to start with Democratic state parties. The trouble is I have no idea how you actually do that because the Democratic base seems to have absolutely no interest in state parties.
I think you have to do the former in the general, the latter in the primary.
neurosisxeno
Member
I don't think being hesitant to support open trade and championing social progress are mutually exclusive.
And desperately hope young people and minorities are in on the plan.
Good Job Bob
Member
Maybe a Trump presidency will change that!
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Cortez Masto is both white enough to not scare white people but can probably be trusted by minorities because she's Hispanic.
This is where having a candidate where minority support is implicit is a huge benefit.
I just had a large conversation with some far left people and they talked about revolutions. Could that happen? Like seriously?
We would be crushed by the Freikorps. We should, however, seriously consider the possibility of street brawls.
Your avatar depresses me further every time I read your posts. It like echoes the sadness that this is going to be the country I live in the next 4 years. The best part of my twenties.
Officerrob
Banned
Took Bush (Cheney) going to war and damn near killing the economy the last time, will probably take something similar
shinra-bansho
Member
So far I've seen...
Talk to them more.
Okay tell them what?
Focus on them more.
Okay at who's expense?
Outright lie to them about how their jobs are coming back I guess?
Abinash117
Member
People will know you used them, if you do a 180 kind of.
Seriously I think people here need to take a break.
Reminder though Obama clearly showed you can get many minorities to turnout and some whites, about 40%.
Officerrob
Banned
Proven to work...
We absolutely positively have to redirect their anger towards the rich.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
I think, like others have echoed, that's why Obama was able to do so good.
He appealed to minorities by simply being a minority. You look at Obamas skin color, and to minorities it's basically "Say no more. we understand that you know what it's like." So Obama was able to focus on the white vote.
Having another minority to run might echo that effect. At this point though, minorities have been demonized so damn much it probably won't.
Don't forget we just learned that they're too prideful to take assistance. So that option is out.
thehypocrite
Member
Can you destroy this delusion with actual facts and reasoning?
It doesn't matter really. They are just covering for their own incompetence and their weak candidate. What do you think they are going to say? "I messed up" "Maybe I shouldn't disregarded the request to enable 2FA" The reason "big if" the Comey thing was enough to have that effect, it's just an example of the fragility of the candidate.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Unless you were planning to leave these people to die, you would have had to do something for them if you got elected anyway. So you need to tell them what it is.
I mean, what is our plan for the Rust Belt?
VendettaRed07
Member
Hillary obviously felt being against trade this election was important or else she wouldn't have broke with Obama on it. Problem is absolutely nobody believed she was against it. Not even me and I voted for her. It was pretty obviously a change in position in order to win an election. People bought what Obama was selling. They didn't buy what Hillary was saying. And on many issues neither did I. Being able to support something and have people believe that you are genuine in your support or opposition of it is sort of an important quality for a politician to have which Hillary totally lacked.
Good luck getting them to chose the rich over the people who don't look like them.
I keep thinking about Omarosa talking about that night on Frontline. Oh, Barack Obama is starting something that I dont know if hell be able to finish" and Roger Stone saying he was motivated to run to "show them all." Thanks Obama.
Yeah, no kidding. Lost despite winning the popular vote, FBI inserting itself into the race, Wikileaks, Russia...
Clinton had her shortcomings and her campaign fucked up big time by stretching themselves too thin and neglecting the Midwest. But SHE STILL WON THE POPULAR VOTE. I go back and forth with where to place most of the blame. I do think the DNC has legit problems and Hillary had too much baggage, whether she deserved it or not. But arghhh. This election shouldn't have been this close. I can accept a legit loss but if it was Comey tipping the scale just enough I don't know what to think.
metalslimer
Member
Ok, just for a second let's grant the idea we need to appeal more to WWC voters to have a shot at winning. How the hell are we going to compete with Trump who can literally just make up anything and they will believe him? Remember how people actually viewed him as honest? If that's the case than barring something catastrophic there is no way to get these people back from him. If Republicans implement there typical agenda why exactly are the WWC voters going to turn against him?
And if we keep going in on social progress all Trump has to say is that we are trying to turn this country over to illegals and foreigners and why should they not believe him?
And if we keep going in on social progress all Trump has to say is that we are trying to turn this country over to illegals and foreigners and why should they not believe him?
Yoda
Member
2 cents on the election:
* Voter turnout was low across the board. Neither candidate is above the loser of the previous election, there are still outstanding ballots, so this may change, but at the moment the Republicans have stagnated and the Obama coalition was just that, the Obama coalition.
* The DNC showed a ridiculously level of hubris all the way up until the very minute the election was called for Trump. Corrupt officials weren't publicly punished, the primary was slanted towards one candidate. The candidate who the Democrats went with was the antithesis of change: a long-time Washington insider. The Democrats somehow became the party of big money, Wall st. and the corporations, there will be an election in 4 years where its EXTREMELY tempting to run the next "rising star" and do nothing but lambaste Trump with oppo-research. This option needs to be taken off the table, and to do that we need principled leadership in the DNC.
* Neo-liberalism is being prosecuted on a global scale. Brexit was suppose to not happen, it did, Donald Trump was nearly 5% behind in all the polls, yet he won. This trend won't change, it'll intensify, as more and more jobs flee to developing nations, more people will join the ranks of those who've become disillusioned with our nations institutions. The audience which the center left democrats are speaking to will only shrink, because the divisions are economic, not race, age, or gender.
* Obama's legacy is in jeopardy. Progressives need to draw lines in the sand NOW and do exactly what the Republicans did at the beginning of Obama's first term. All the executive orders Obama signed instead of trying to work the Congress will be undone. The ACA will be under-siege every single day for the next 4 years. Trump can't get past a filibuster, but slowly dismantling the law piece by piece is very real possibility. Other items that are on the line:
- Iran deal
- Compliance w/Paris deal
- Dodd-Frank
- TPP (this is 100% dead)
- Deferred deportation for children of illegal aliens (will be repealed day 1)
* The Democrats have been preaching about a changing america/demographic destiny, the Democrats are now a minority party in EVERY level of government from a national perspective:
- A minority of governorships
- A minority of state legislatures
- A minority of state supreme courts
- The minority in the U.S. House of Reps.
- The minority in the U.S. Senate
- The minority in the SCOTUS (assumed)
- Republican controlled executive branch
It's time to admit liberals don't have a plan to obtain power and implement their agenda. Obama isn't coming back, and at the moment, there isn't a plan to win any future national elections.
EDIT:
I also feel the need to point out the obstacles Donald Trump had yet still won:
- He had a miserable campaign:
* no ground game
* no target advertising
* no data operation
* spent more on hats than on polls
- The entire establishment, on both sides, supported his opponent
- The most disastrous oppo research dump I've ever seen in a political campaign
- People were afraid of publicly supporting him (this was dependent on where you live)
- The Khan scandal
- Disastrous convention
- Lost ALL three debates
* Voter turnout was low across the board. Neither candidate is above the loser of the previous election, there are still outstanding ballots, so this may change, but at the moment the Republicans have stagnated and the Obama coalition was just that, the Obama coalition.
* The DNC showed a ridiculously level of hubris all the way up until the very minute the election was called for Trump. Corrupt officials weren't publicly punished, the primary was slanted towards one candidate. The candidate who the Democrats went with was the antithesis of change: a long-time Washington insider. The Democrats somehow became the party of big money, Wall st. and the corporations, there will be an election in 4 years where its EXTREMELY tempting to run the next "rising star" and do nothing but lambaste Trump with oppo-research. This option needs to be taken off the table, and to do that we need principled leadership in the DNC.
* Neo-liberalism is being prosecuted on a global scale. Brexit was suppose to not happen, it did, Donald Trump was nearly 5% behind in all the polls, yet he won. This trend won't change, it'll intensify, as more and more jobs flee to developing nations, more people will join the ranks of those who've become disillusioned with our nations institutions. The audience which the center left democrats are speaking to will only shrink, because the divisions are economic, not race, age, or gender.
* Obama's legacy is in jeopardy. Progressives need to draw lines in the sand NOW and do exactly what the Republicans did at the beginning of Obama's first term. All the executive orders Obama signed instead of trying to work the Congress will be undone. The ACA will be under-siege every single day for the next 4 years. Trump can't get past a filibuster, but slowly dismantling the law piece by piece is very real possibility. Other items that are on the line:
- Iran deal
- Compliance w/Paris deal
- Dodd-Frank
- TPP (this is 100% dead)
- Deferred deportation for children of illegal aliens (will be repealed day 1)
* The Democrats have been preaching about a changing america/demographic destiny, the Democrats are now a minority party in EVERY level of government from a national perspective:
- A minority of governorships
- A minority of state legislatures
- A minority of state supreme courts
- The minority in the U.S. House of Reps.
- The minority in the U.S. Senate
- The minority in the SCOTUS (assumed)
- Republican controlled executive branch
It's time to admit liberals don't have a plan to obtain power and implement their agenda. Obama isn't coming back, and at the moment, there isn't a plan to win any future national elections.
EDIT:
I also feel the need to point out the obstacles Donald Trump had yet still won:
- He had a miserable campaign:
* no ground game
* no target advertising
* no data operation
* spent more on hats than on polls
- The entire establishment, on both sides, supported his opponent
- The most disastrous oppo research dump I've ever seen in a political campaign
- People were afraid of publicly supporting him (this was dependent on where you live)
- The Khan scandal
- Disastrous convention
- Lost ALL three debates
TheAbsolution
Member
I mean, like things in this country could get that bad because of what happened on Tuesday. Like I know end of the world type stuff can generally be overblown but if shit hits the fan and 2020 doesn't go our way as well, I don't know what we're gonna do. I need some hope here guys.
I'm not sure the substance matters - moreso the charisma to sell it to people.
And please, define "Neoliberalism" (not directed at Shinra!)
I'm not, really. I don't personally care much about weed, but it obviously motivates people. If Republicans could previously use anti-gay marriage measures to ramp up turnout, Democrats should give it a try with things like marijuana legalization.
neurosisxeno
Member
People were convinced Hillary would say or do anything to increase her chances to get elected--which is not what the American Electorate wants apparently. Being so mired in scandals and controversy deeply damaged the American peoples perception of her, and no matter what she said or did I don't think she could have walked back her stance on trade.
shinra-bansho
Member
Well that's what I'm asking.
Beyond the fantasyland notion that we're all coming together under some common socialist banner to fight the East and West coasts and that these people will be perfectly okay with sharing any gains with browns and blacks.
You're the one who noted that they don't want handouts. Presumably even handouts to retrain.
This is basically a "we're fucked" post. Do you have any ideas about how to move forward (this a genuine question, not a snarky question)?
GoldenEye 007
Member
The answer is both. It's having targeted messages. Save the social stuff for urban areas. For example, police operate at a local level anyway, so it makes sense to cultivate candidates in local areas that are willing to work on local police and other social issues.
Focus economic issues everywhere and especially areas that have been left behind. Figure out something to tell them that is to the point and isn't a complete lie on what will be done for them so they can get back to work. Tell them they want to rebuild the standing of unions that GOP control allowed to be gutted. Incentive for companies to re-invest in your areas. Or simply finding new major projects that people can work on. Maybe infrastructure and energy. New investment in trades.
It can work especially if Trump turns out to be a failure on some of the most extreme policy. Point out Obama deported more immigrants than history. And that we found immigrants aren't taking the jobs you used to have. Sack up and say we want the criminals out. Security? No major terrorist attacks since Obama has been office.
I don't know. Obama had a much better chunk of them just years ago. There has to be a way to connect with them again.
I don't know where anyone said that Trump supporters want socialism.
Well, they want national socialism.
Edit: I think I misinterpreted your post. But still, I don't think throwing up red banners is going to appeal to the Rust Belt, but I do think embracing a more populist agenda would with the right candidate.
Elaugaufein
Member
The problem here is the conflation of certain types of work with dignity. You do massively inefficient welfare via military spending on stuff the military often doesn't want, spread out over states in ways that make no sense. But very few people view it that way because they see the resulting jobs as dignified despite the fact they are effectively digging holes and filling them in again in terms of use.
So you could wrap you're assistance appropriately. Use the money that would be spent on assistance , take the efficiency hit and wrap it in "jobs'. Hell, you might even get some productive use out if it eg infrastructure repair/creation.
I live in the most gerrymandered district of NYC and all blues won here without my help.
Abinash117
Member
No one here does. It simply doesn't matter what people here plan. The Democrat party leaders and other officials will think of a plan and many will try to follow.
metalslimer
Member
That's just the issue I have though. What if there isn't? What if republicans have found the formula to gain their votes continually at the levels we have seen? And this was with a hated candidate who people lacked the experience to be president. They didn't care and when he has 4 years under his belt and they forget about his sexual scandals why are they going to believe us over him?
Well my white parents in PA voted for Trump after being Obama supporters. Their reason? Hating muslims. They had no idea what Trump's economic policies even were
I'm sick of people just blaming everything on these people being racists.
A black man won Indi fucking ana 8 years ago. Were they suddenly not overwhelmed with racists then?
The WWC in the rustbelt put their own needs, and desires for their cushy 80k jobs back, over the needs of everyone else. That is indisputable. But acting like they can't be taken back when a black man won most of them two times is just insane and sends us toward the path of irrelevance.
A black man won Indi fucking ana 8 years ago. Were they suddenly not overwhelmed with racists then?
The WWC in the rustbelt put their own needs, and desires for their cushy 80k jobs back, over the needs of everyone else. That is indisputable. But acting like they can't be taken back when a black man won most of them two times is just insane and sends us toward the path of irrelevance.
shinra-bansho
Member
Also lost in all this is the prospect that 8 years of a black President, galvanised the bigotry. And the perfect person to harness it was the man who tried to delegitimise his Presidency.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Given you haven't made any suggestions yet, my conclusion seems to be your plan actually was to just leave them to die? It's little wonder we lost if that genuinely was our attitude.
I think the actual answer is pretty complicated. It's weirdly a problem that's easier in the long-run than the short-run - no matter what kind of palliatives we put in, it will probably always be better to move to the cities than stay put. The more accessible you make the education process, the faster that happens - so free student tuition is a place to start.
The short run? You have to bring the jobs back. Instead of putting money towards benefits, put money towards subsidizing industry, at least in the short-run. That way they still get state handouts, it just comes through the intervening medium of something that gives them a little dignity. What's the difference between paying them $15 an hour to do nothing vs. paying them $15 an hour to build a car? At least in the second one you have a car at the end of it. A massive drive into rural infrastructure - particularly public transport. Try and capture some of these areas as satellites, so that businesses can spread from the cities to these outlying areas. An hour's travel compared to three hour's travel is a big difference in viability. Be immensely careful with free trade - sometimes cheaper consumer goods aren't worth livelihoods. Cheaper necessities are probably fine to come from abroad, but any free trade that outsources luxury good production means that you bankrupt rural America to provide wealthy America cheaper goods.
These are just part of something, but I think they're, at least, starting points.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Point out all of the ways Trump has helped bankers and Wall Street.
Trump ran on a populist message, but his current policy goals are not in line with how his demographics thought he would act.
So point these out. Point out the lower taxes for the rich. The less regulations. The lost jobs. The increased poverty.
Show that Trump has failed the people he voted on. Show that he scammed them. We'll have the evidence now, because he'll have a record. He got off in the election because he had no hard evidence of what his plans were. He was able to say he was going to do everything and nothing. Now he'll have a concrete record of what he did and didn't get done. And we can exploit that to chip away the people who voted for him
Well, maybe. People have been going back-and-forth on the various possibilities. It's hard to say much of anything right now because the data is still coming in, analysis is still very initial, and most of all, the country is still in shock. The path will have to be decided sooner rather than later, but it's hard to be certain of the landscape less than 48 hours later.
excelsiorlef
Member
Ding.
One of Clinton's biggest mistakes was banking on the decency of the American public.
She believed America would reject ovee white nationalism... that they would fight aka tick a fucking box to stop it
And she was wrong
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