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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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J

Joeytj

Banned
Randolph Freelander said:
Come on, Newsweek. Not this.

500x281
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They, and other print media, always do this in case one of the two candidates win. There's most likely a Trump cover somewhere out there.

Not that I care to see it *shivers*
 
T

Teggy

Member
Adam, fix this.

TanielVerified account
‏@Taniel
OH has 88 counties:
—5 with more than 500K residents; 2 above 1 million
—39 with less than 50K
Each county has only 1 early voting location.
Click to expand...
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Joeytj said:
They, and other print media, always do this in case one of the two candidates win. There's most likely a Trump cover somewhere out there.

Not that I care to see it *shivers*
Click to expand...

And there are t-shirts the world over for every national championship game loser.

The key is to not let them get seen in the wild prior to the event.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
Massachusetts has got this.

First domino east of the Mississippi to fall. Rest of the coast shouldn't be too far behind. Not sure what the Florida vote is looking like.
Click to expand...

Yessir. This is honestly the only thing I worry about this election. Would be pretty devastated if marijuana is not legalized in MA this year. Would be a long time before MA would have another shot at legalizing it.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Cesare Borgia said:
NYT has tax info (they released some on Thursday) but no smoking gun, multiple tapes of Trump making ignorant comments, info on him and his father making even worse comments about black renters, tape of Trump making explicit, "relationship ending" sexual comments about his daughter and then fiancé.

I understand why the last one was not released and referenced it before in terms of being too negative, but I don't understand why they didn't press for the other info to be released. Wilson is not bullshitting.
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Glad they didn't do the last one, but the other ones would have been nice.

Zukkoyaki said:
Enten is openly diverging from Nate. He's disagreeing with their model's vote margin and openly questioning half the polls going into it now.
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To be fair, the podcasts seem to indicate that Silver mostly agrees with Enten's points - he just deliberately made the decision to accept more polls much earlier on (before the giant pile of trash polls started happening) and changing late in the game is a little sketchy. Better to add the trash polls, let them all fail, and then go through and use the data to point out why they are trash polls, ban them from the model going forward, and destroy their credibility across the board using their own data against them.

Basically the Pollster Ratings article in 2017 is going to be Silver Sparta'ing a bunch of trash polls into the abyss, hopefully not only removing them from his model, but also having them removed from other models as well and their credibility overall.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
@CGasparino
#BreakingPoll @realDonaldTrump camp internal polls have him down 2 in Fla; plus 1 in NV; up 2 in NH more now @FoxBusiness
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Lol, what?

He would still lose haha.

Anyway, how realistic is Arizona? I know Latino turnout is also breaking records there, but could Hillary still win it, while, say, losing Ohio and NC?
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
I defend Nate's keeping with the model even when it's clear it's flawed and lets trash polls game the system. When you're doing science it's worth letting an experiment run to competition even when your hypotheses are clearly invalidated, just to see what happens.

The problem is that Nate's defending his model instead of defending the science he's actually conducting, and that's wrong.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Cybit said:
To be fair, the podcasts seem to indicate that Silver mostly agrees with Enten's points - he just deliberately made the decision to accept more polls much earlier on (before the giant pile of trash polls started happening) and changing late in the game is a little sketchy. Better to add the trash polls, let them all fail, and then go through and use the data to point out why they are trash polls, ban them from the model going forward, and destroy their credibility across the board using their own data against them.

Basically the Pollster Ratings article in 2017 is going to be Silver Sparta'ing a bunch of trash polls into the abyss, hopefully not only removing them from his model, but also having them removed from other models as well and their credibility overall.
Click to expand...

I seem to recall they contemplated leaving out landline only polls and such prior to this cycle but decided to roll with them. You're right, the postmortem will probably valid their initial thought-process.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
So um..

Dan Merica‏ @danmericaCNN
#OneMoreDay: I knocked over a can of whipped cream on the Clinton's campaign plane today in PA. Finishing strong

Cwr4-60XEAA4ov2.jpg
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That quote with the image....am I the only one thinking what I think he's saying?


Edit: Top of the page. Great.
 
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