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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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Zukkoyaki

Member
I guess? He doesn't have any pollster anymore. Perhaps, they are using public polls? Gravis him up by 2 in NH.

There was also an Opinion Savvy poll today that had him down 2 in Florida. We've suspected it for awhile but I think they really are just rolling with public polls which is hysterical.
 

hawk2025

Member
But, real talk, you guys are at the "eating crackers" phase with Nate Silver.

Take a step back a bit. Polls are correlated across state lines and that's part of the model.
 
If there was a tape of Trump talking shit about black renters and the media didn't follow through and release it, they completely failed the country. we could elect him and then have it come out that he said the n-word. would be crazy.
 

Iolo

Member
Based on trendz we should be able to extrapolate the final results.

1) take votecastr.us results at 8am
2) take votecastr.us results at 11am
3) fit to line
4) voila
 

Atlagev

Member
Better news.

onedaymore‏ @maggieNYT
Campaign stopped tracking late last week,hasn't done FL tracking other than Cambridge Analytica/TargetPoint in 2 wks

Uh... This is like, completely abnormal for a campaign, right? Like, I'm figuring Hillary is getting internals every hour, on the hour?
 
If there was a tape of Trump talking shit about black renters and the media didn't follow through and release it, they completely failed the country. we could elect him and then have it come out that he said the n-word. would be crazy.
There's documentation Fred Trump talked shit about Black tenants, and Donald was in the same room. EMAILSZ!!!
 
Better news.

Clinton data ops:

Death_star1.png


Trump data ops:

images
 
Oh man, MSNBC is running an ad with Obama looking directly at the camera, advocating for McGinty. I love it.

My favorite part of that ad is where he stops talking for a second and then says "Anthony," which is my name, "you are trapped in a living dream. We are trying to wake you. Anthony, please find yourself in your own dark. There is not much longer."

It's really powerful.
 
Uh... This is like, completely abnormal for a campaign, right? Like, I'm figuring Hillary is getting internals every hour, on the hour?

Someone said yesterday that on the Sunday of Election day we had 70+ state polls; this year we had 30-some and most of it is because all good pollsters were sucked up for internal polling this year.

If Trump isn't doing internal polling then who employed all those firms? !
 
maggie changing her twitter display to onedaymore tells you all you need to know about the torture covering this campaign has been for print media (which has done a good job-it's cable news that's been uniformly terrible).
 
If there was a tape of Trump talking shit about black renters and the media didn't follow through and release it, they completely failed the country. we could elect him and then have it come out that he said the n-word. would be crazy.
Cue Jeffrey Lord explaining that President Wilson- a Democrat- once said the N word. And that Lincoln ended slavery.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
I seem to recall they contemplated leaving out landline only polls and such prior to this cycle but decided to roll with them. You're right, the postmortem will probably valid their initial thought-process.

I think with Upshot going the discerning route on polls; they may have decided to go with the "come one poll come all polls" approach to be able to compare notes with other models.

landline only polls, daily tracking polls, and dubious online polls were the ones they were debating keeping out IIRC.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
News leaks that Trump stopped paying his internal pollster two days ago.

Leaks new internals showing him lightly competitive that are clearly made up.

GG guys. GG
 
new jr. software dev whiteboard hazing question:

"Jim has 650,000 emails. Huma also has 650,000 emails. What's the best way to see if the emails are the same?"

and the follow-up:

"What algorithm and runtime would you target to make sure that you could finish the work before your boss leaks the information to the press?"

So what time tomorrow do we get to talk about Cabinet positions?

Needs to be all Democrats in their 40s and early 50s. Cabinet shouldn't be so worried about expertise, but focus on building a strong bench.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Someone said yesterday that on the Sunday of Election day we had 70+ state polls; this year we had 30-some and most of it is because all good pollsters were sucked up for internal polling this year.

If Trump isn't doing internal polling then who employed all those firms? !
hillary-laugh.png
 
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