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[shinra-bansho]

Not really. It's a mix of their proprietary polling combined with real time data on voter turnout.

Where are they getting the latter...? It can only be some sort of modeling I assume.

 

[Abstrusity]

Remember, Floridians: No on 1, Yes on 2, Yes on 3, No on 4.

And Put Rubio's job security in the trash where it belongs.

 

[whyamihere]

She said they're expecting a bigger loss in OH than expected, I'm not optimistic.

At this point in the day, she heard he heard she heard from campaign sources isn't particularly useful.

 

[HanShotFirst]

Hillary voting now.

 

[kirblar]

I'm confident about NV, but do we have final numbers on how FL, NH, and NC were looking? Especially NC, eager to see how things may have tightened there. Plouffe was saying on Keepin It 1600 last night he expects Hillary to have an easier win in FL then NC.

FL and NC both looked good, IIRC.

 

[sazzy]

Votecastr YouTube Live Feed is now not-private.

Nothing has started so far, its supposed to in an hour or so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBwGlqrP1-E

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

I'm not entirely unconvinced that Votecastr isn't either the work of the alt-right or Bernie Busters.

 

[ampere]

Ana Navarro ended up voting for Hillary!

Yaaaaaas

 

[Loudninja]

Where are they getting the latter...? It can only be some sort of modeling I assume.

They are using chartzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[BitStyle]

Remember, Floridians: No on 1, Yes on 2, Yes on 3, No on 4.

And Put Rubio's job security in the trash where it belongs.

Listen to this post, fellow Floridians.

 

[nature boy]

At this point in the day, she heard he heard she heard from campaign sources isn't particularly useful.

Managing expectations, she might win but most likely not.

Hillary voting!

 

[maquiladora]

Where are they getting the latter...? It can only be some sort of modeling I assume.

VoteCastr will have hundreds of field workers stationed at preselected precincts around the country. Those field workers will be reporting official turnout numbers as they’re provided to them by poll workers throughout the day. By selecting a representative mix of precincts, VoteCastr will extrapolate the turnout in similar precincts that aren’t being tracked, in the same way it used large-sample polling to draw probabilistic conclusions about how I was going to cast my vote without surveying me directly.

.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Hillary looks overwhelmed in the best "I'm really gonna win this today" kind of way

 

[BadRNG]

+15 nationally tho. Come on I'm trying to outsmart Nate Silver here

Oh right, I didn't incorporate the trends factor.

Kerry wasn't a good candidate and the swiftboat stuff hurt him, but that exit polling debacle was garbage. They stopped releasing that information that early after that.

It may not be exactly exit polling, but it's still something for people to track and say, "Eh, I don't need to go now."

I suppose a law like the UK has that bans exit polling results before polls close is a non starter thanks to that pesky 1st amendment thing? I'm not honestly sure what point publishing exit polls (before polls close) even serve outside of freaking people out. They are useful for finding out rough demographics/why people vote but not for clear results.

 

[finowns]

Donald Trump Jr. : why Michigan of all places, whats wrong with Michigan?

 

[James]

No on 4? Wasn't that already voted on and passed? What amendment are you talking about?

 

[Makai]

Votecastr is a trash idea.

I am 100% convinced early exit polling (some of which was released just after lunch time EST) on 2004 election day is what quashed any chance Kerry had. Reports were everywhere on radio, TV, and the Internet that Kerry was leading exit polling in swing states. I believe that energized Bush voters and depressed voting for Kerry.

Kerry wasn't a good candidate and the swiftboat stuff hurt him, but that exit polling debacle was garbage. They stopped releasing that information that early after that.

It may not be exactly exit polling, but it's still something for people to track and say, "Eh, I don't need to go now."

When people think their candidate will win they're more likely to turn out.

 

[XenodudeX]

Managing expectations, she might win but most likely not.

Hillary voting!

How do you know that though

 

[kirblar]

The takeaway from EV has been simple: Throw your polling demographic models in the trash can.

 

[Cyanity]

Seeing some gaffers revealing their pro-Trump affiliations on Twitter this morning. Including some people who came in here, made a couple of posts, then left when they realized they were probably alone here.

It's making me wonder if his supporters will shrink back when Donald loses. I'm sure we've all been wondering this for a while. But if he makes a legitimate concession speech, and the media stops giving him a pass for every heinous and deplorable thing he does on a weekly basis, I could see Trump supporters shrinking away. My hope is that there is a degree of embarrassment of being rejected so publicly. To have your ideology crushed and stonewalled should, at best, make you more introspective. But, at worst, maybe you'll just stop talking.

If Donald's concession speech is combative and he doesn't stop campaigning, I don't know how we'll deal with that. He doesn't have to run for president, but he could still be a figure who holds rallies of dissent. What would we do if he just continues campaigning against the president and telling his supporters to take back America? We would have a pretty enormous sect of indecent people organized and motivated to combat a liberal America. That's some scary stuff.

Because I feel like Fox and CNN are going to continue to give Donald all the coverage and airtime he wants because he will continue to drive viewership. He has a cult beneath him - he will continue to be news. Is there any escaping it?

Let's give it a couple days before worrying about this. No one knows how the after election is going to go

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

WAIT CAN I CHANGE MY VOTE

 

[finowns]

Had to switch to the BBC, Donald Trump Jr.'s voice is annoying.

 

[Loudninja]

Lol awful looking ad.

 

[shinra-bansho]

.

I.e. modeling.

From a sample of "hundreds" of locations around the entirety of the US?

I don't know how this is any more useful than any other live poll being extrapolated nationally.
Sounds like. Trash.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Let's give it a couple days before worrying about this. No one knows how the after election is going to go

Fair enough. I should do myself the courtesy of only worrying about one apocalyptic outcome at a time.

Let's get that Senate.

 

[Zeeman]

WAIT CAN I CHANGE MY VOTE

Attack ad Hillary looks like a total boss. Why would you not want to vote for the woman with a chainsaw?

 

[whyamihere]

Who do you think Hillary voted for

 

[shinra-bansho]

Who do you think Hillary voted for

Kasich / Sanders.

 

[Y2Kev]

Who do you think Hillary voted for

Sources tell me that she was pessimistic she would win her vote

 

[BadRNG]

Who do you think Hillary voted for

Bernie.

 

[User 463088]

Who do you think Hillary voted for

JILL NOT HILL

 

[HanShotFirst]

Who do you think Hillary voted for

Gary Johnson

 

[Loudninja]

Who do you think Hillary voted for

Her double.

 

[Pyrokai]

+3 in Ohio. Dragged my roommate with me to vote and my sister voted as well.

My dad is full-on Trump but my mom.....well, I hope she makes the right choice.

 

[WMBT27]

Sources tell me that she was pessimistic she would win her vote

Partisan non-response bias

 

[nature boy]

"Most accurate pollster", great for talking points final prediction:

Final National IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll
(11/4-7):
Trump 45%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%

Final National IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll, H2H, (11/4-7):
Clinton 43%
Trump 42%

Rasss DGAF and will update later

How do you know that though

Because the campaign is managing expectations saying she'll might lose by a bigger margin

jfc

 

[Slayven]

WAIT CAN I CHANGE MY VOTE

Do people think she literally bleached the emails?

 

[ThLunarian]

What options exist to watch election coverage without cable TV? I'm even willing to pay for a short term solution. Thanks!

 

[HanShotFirst]

Do people think she literally bleached the emails?

probably.

 

[modernlifeisANDY]

Reposting here (+1 for Clinton!)

I'd also urge any MA undecided ballot voters to consider voting no on question 2. Charter schools can be a wonderful addition to communities, but as a public school teacher I have seen firsthand the realistic effect that they can have on district budgeting. We need better regulation before we raise the cap on charters.

Happy election day, all!

 

[maquiladora]

I.e. modeling.

From a sample of "hundreds" of locations around the entirety of the US?

I don't know how this is any more useful than any other live poll being extrapolated nationally.
Sounds like. Trash.

Just Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

 

[Bubblicious]

Who do you think Hillary voted for

I wonder if Hillary teared up a little finally seeing her name on the ballot for president? This is what her career has been culminating too

 

[Already Torn]

Do people think she literally bleached the emails?

She acid bleached them

 

[Loudninja]

Do people think she literally bleached the emails?

Looks like some off brand bleach as well SAD

 

[Crimson_Gold]

Do people think she literally bleached the emails?

It makes me think of that Geico commercial with that old lady putting pictures on her wall, thinking it's how Facebook works

 

[thefro]

+1 Hillary/Gregg/Bayh in Indiana. Turnout didn't seem as high as 2012 but I think early voting was up quite a bit.

 

[whyamihere]

There's a County-wide technical issue in Durham, NC so they're going to have to revert to pen and paper.

EDIT: this is just for check in.

 

[SexyFish]

There's a County-wide technical issue in Durham, NC so they're going to have to revert to pen and paper ballots.

THE RIGGING BEGINS

 

[Already Torn]

There's a County-wide technical issue in Durham, NC so they're going to have to revert to pen and paper.

EDIT: this is just for check in.

Convenient

 

[Loudninja]

There's a County-wide technical issue in Durham, NC so they're going to have to revert to pen and paper.

EDIT: this is just for check in.

Ok who ran into the pole.