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[JesseEwiak]

Carter presided over the end of the Democratic coalition. He never really had a chance.

The best way to understand Carter is to imagine him as the Democratic Marco Rubio, only I don't think the Democratic Donald Trump ever really showed up. That's a GOP special.

Well, George Wallace without the assasination attempt would've been the guy in '76, especially with the DNC as split as the GOP is this time around. But, thankfully, even though he ran, he had too much baggage.

Eh, I actually think Carter is closer to Kasich in that he stabbed his ideological allies (the segregationists in Carter's case) to pass moderate legislation (anti-racial discrimination stuff in Georgia, Medicaid Expansion in Kasich), but both still governed relatively closer to their ideological beliefs than the media let you know.

In a lot of ways, the 1976 DNC primary is the closest thing to the 2016 GOP primary. You had people who had lost the last race declining to run (Romney & Mccain / HHH & McGovern), popular moderate Governor's not running (Askew/Sandoval), you had people who were written in as possible nominees faltering early (Scoop Jackson / Scott Walker), a previous generations candidate not doing as well as expected (Jeb / George Wallace), a young good looking Senator from a swing state failing (Birch Bayh / Marco Rubio), and an ideologue being the surprise insurgent candidate (Mo Udall / Ted Cruz), and you even had an AnybodyButCarter movement where people actually jumped in at the end of the race (led by Jerry Brown & Frank Church / Romney or Ryan at the convention?)

 

[User 406]

Bahahaha

So we get the local Democratic party mailer with the nice color glossy foldout showing all the smiling faces of all the endorsed downballot candidates on our ballot, with little blurbs for each one talking about how awesome they are.

Tim McGinty ain't on it.

Glad to see the party not trying to stand behind that fuck. I would have liked them to actively endorse O'Malley, but since he's the challenger and he's also got ties to the previous corruption ring, I'm not surprised they left him off too.

Oh, and Judge Francine Goldberg looks like a Nagel painting.

 

[kmag]

You know that if Clinton does get elected President, it would be nice if Chief Justice Roberts suggests that the notorious RBG do the swearing in (there's no requirement it be the Chief Justice who presides over the swearing in). Doubt it would happen, but Ginsberg swearing in the first female president would be very fitting for someone who spent her life looking for legal equality for women.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Quinnipac

 

[Y2Kev]

You are really bad at sources.
Also Rubio lol

Dude is ruining his career.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

[DEM MARCH 15TH POLLS]

OH: Clinton 46-41

IL: Clinton 48-45

MO: Sanders 47-46

FL: Clinton 57-32

NC: Clinton 56-37

IL close as fuck. Fuck.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...up-tuesday-clinton-still-strong-in-south.html

 

[CCS]

You are really bad at sources.
Also Rubio lol

Dude is ruining his career.

Rubio's political career being completely dead is the best thing about this election so far. While he's not the most hateful of the Republicans, he may just be the most pathetic and useless.

 

[danm999]

Expected a bit more of a lead from the Sandman in Missouri TBH.

 

[brainchild]

IL close as fuck. Fuck.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...up-tuesday-clinton-still-strong-in-south.html

cartoon_soldier
Member
Today, 06:47 AM, Post #5265

Calm down, buddy.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

So, Sam Wang's model is now saying that Kasich winning Ohio is actually in Trump's best interest. The logic is intuitive enough. If Trump wins Ohio and Florida, then Kasich and Rubio drop out. Trump probably loses a 1v1 with Cruz. But if Kasich takes Ohio and Rubio drops out, then the field stays divided enough that Trump could wrap it up by mid-April.

 

[Y2Kev]

FUCK!!!!

 

[Bowdz]

So, Sam Wang's model is now saying that Kasich winning Ohio is actually in Trump's best interest. The logic is intuitive enough. If Trump wins Ohio and Florida, then Kasich and Rubio drop out. Trump probably loses a 1v1 with Cruz. But if Kasich takes Ohio and Rubio drops out, then the field stays divided enough that Trump could wrap it up by mid-April.

The great Wang has spoken!

 

[nocturnalis]

I teach AP Government and AP US History and sometimes I have the hardest time not verbally slapping students for their crackpot positions. I usually try to be deferential to student opinions, even if they are outside of the mainstream, but I have to draw the line somewhere.

...I drew the line at a female student arguing that women simply should not be President. Half expecting an angry parent email.

As someone who bas taken these classes, don't be afraid to shatter your students world view. Even if they don't like it, the should be tolerant to other ideas and opinions.

 

[Cheebo]

Why are people still stressing about Bernie in Midwest? None of this matters. Hillary will end up with the most delegates thanks to running up the margins in Florida and North Carolina.

 

[brainchild]

Why are people still stressing about Bernie in Midwest? None of this matters. Hillary will end up with the most delegates thanks to running up the margins in Florida and North Carolina.

Do you really need to ask this question in a thread with posters like Diablos and cartoon_soldier?!

Poligaf gonna poligaf.

 

[Clefargle]

Why are people still stressing about Bernie in Midwest? None of this matters. Hillary will end up with the most delegates thanks to running up the margins in Florida and North Carolina.

Something something momentum something something show he is electable something

 

[User 463088]

FUCK!

 

[Y2Kev]

FUCK!

FUCK!!!!

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Do you really need to ask this question in a thread with posters like Diablos and cartoon_soldier?!

Poligaf gonna poligaf.

Not worried about delegates, just the more Hillary wins the more Bernie can hopefully give up and Dems can pivot to general.

 

[Diablos]

Really hoping that Hillary's not-quite-as-stellar performance outside of the south doesn't imply problems there in the general.

Also Kasich is lame. Even in a brokered convention I think Cruz would be their man.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

The great Wang has spoken!

Also, he just said on Twitter that the single most damaging scenario for Trump is Kasich winning Ohio, then dropping out before the next primaries anyway.

 

[Plinko]

Also, he just said on Twitter that the single most damaging scenario for Trump is Kasich winning Ohio, then dropping out before the next primaries anyway.

Absolutely correct, but it makes no sense for Kasich to win a state and then immediately drop.

 

[Fuchsdh]

I teach AP Government and AP US History and sometimes I have the hardest time not verbally slapping students for their crackpot positions. I usually try to be deferential to student opinions, even if they are outside of the mainstream, but I have to draw the line somewhere.

...I drew the line at a female student arguing that women simply should not be President. Half expecting an angry parent email.

I dunno if you should go in on someone for having what you'd consider bad or stupid opinions, but if they bring it up in a relevant class you certainly can rebut it, the same way you'd be within your rights to tell someone that homeopathy is considered nonsense for X, Y, Z in chemistry.

The pretty sharp divide I see among young and old women regarding their opinions on gender equality is pretty interesting.

 

[User 406]

We're going to the convention, and we'll have a stronger GOTV structure thanks to that. Relax.

 

[Tesseract]

Why are people still talking about Bernie, he's only 3% in the polls. Nobody knows who he is.

Why are people talking about Donald, jeb is going to destroy Donald. What a mesh.

 

[The Lamonster]

Anyone else surprised that Martin O'Malley hasn't endorsed anyone yet?

Maybe he's hesitant to burn bridges.

 

[Slayven]

How bad is it to lose your own state in a primary?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

That Devine guy also said today that they are not getting out until Convention.

Like really fuck Sanders if he does that.

 

[CCS]

Oh we've entered the Daily Panic phase of PoliGAF.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

 

[shem935]

How bad is it to lose your own state in a primary?

Normally pretty bad. Like time to drop out bad. But losing your own primary to Donald feels crippling in a special way that could end Rubio forever.

 

[CCS]

Normally pretty bad. Like time to drop out bad. But losing your own primary to Donald feels crippling in a special way that could end Rubio forever.

Pretty much this. Don't see how you recover from losing your home state to a man with a hairdo faker than everything nice anyone has ever said about Ted Cruz.

 

[Diablos]

Anyone else surprised that Martin O'Malley hasn't endorsed anyone yet?

Maybe he's hesitant to burn bridges.

Pretty sure his endorsement would be just as forgettable as his Iowa song.

That Devine guy also said today that they are not getting out until Convention.

Like really fuck Sanders if he does that.

God dammit Bernie, go away.

 

[Y2Kev]

Anyone else surprised that Martin O'Malley hasn't endorsed anyone yet?

Maybe he's hesitant to burn bridges.

Check out his plan. Check. Check check. Check out my plan.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

IL close as fuck. Fuck.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...up-tuesday-clinton-still-strong-in-south.html

I'm surprised that the margin is under 20 in NC and that Sanders is only up 1 in MO.

 

[Effect]

I hope Hillary's ground game operation is running full steam Tuesday. Leave nothing to chance even if you'll get the delegates. I want the wins regardless.

 

[brainchild]

I hope Hillary's ground game operation is running full steam Tuesday. Leave nothing to chance even if you'll get the delegates. I want the wins regardless.

That's the spirit!

Spoiler

Lol

 

[Clefargle]

If Clinton takes more than 3 states is it OVER tm?

 

[Fox318]

I still think its crazy that with all of the Trump craziness that I'd still rather have him over Ted Cruz or a Ben Carson.

 

[User 463088]

Check out his plan. Check. Check check. Check out my plan.

I bet he has a big....plan.

 

[Y2Kev]

I hope Hillary's ground game operation is running full steam Tuesday. Leave nothing to chance even if you'll get the delegates. I want the wins regardless.

Hillarys ground game is bill chasing people around calling them sexist.

 

[User 463088]

Hillarys ground game is bill chasing people around calling them sexist.

And physically blocking 20000 people per voting locale.

 

[CCS]

I bet he has a big....plan.

Trump's got a YUUUUUGE plan, you should see it.

 

[Fox318]

Hillarys ground game is bill chasing people around calling them sexist.

To be fair Bill's ground game was him chasing people around and then bringing them back for a cigar or 2.

 

[Drek]

I'm surprised that the margin is under 20 in NC and that Sanders is only up 1 in MO.

The local NBC station had a poll (I live in St. Louis) had Hillary 47, Sanders 40 this morning. Not much backup info as to what they were polling (registered v. likely?) but that's the in-country line I've most recently saw.

Missouri will be interesting. Normally the democratic side of the table is dominated by St. Louis and Kansas City where the AA pop is heavily centered. Jeff City/Columbia will likely go Bernie as a college town area. I think a real wrinkle could be voter registration drives related to the primary contest for St. Louis' congressional district.

We're basically going to see a contest between BLM voter registration efforts and Sanders' independent pull in an open primary state with stark segregation by voting district. If Sanders doesn't jump out to a dominant lead early that's probably a bad sign since STL and KC will report late relative to the rest of the state and will likely break strong for Hillary.

 

[thcsquad]

Kind of annoyed at Hillary people not calling me in IL. I got two calls from Sanders phone bankers this weekend, but none from Hillary yet. Is she just giving up on millenials?

 

[HylianTom]

And physically blocking 20000 people per voting locale.

Imagine Election Day in November:
- Bill Clinton tying-up traffic in one wealthy, GOP-leaning Ohio suburb
- Biden doing similarly in Michigan or Pennsylvania
- Obama in a suburb in Virginia
- Hillary in Florida

That's for the morning, where their analytics show vote-timing patterns. They then all hop onto planes around noon.

Then, for when work gets out and we see an afternoon/early evening final rush, they're in place for another round of states/cities.

(Yes, the "tie-up-traffic" tactic still amuses me..)

 

[RustyNails]

So, Sam Wang's model is now saying that Kasich winning Ohio is actually in Trump's best interest. The logic is intuitive enough. If Trump wins Ohio and Florida, then Kasich and Rubio drop out. Trump probably loses a 1v1 with Cruz. But if Kasich takes Ohio and Rubio drops out, then the field stays divided enough that Trump could wrap it up by mid-April.

This is what I have been saying for a while. Trump benefits as long as the NeverTrump vote is split amongst Rubio, Kasich and Cruz. If Kasich drops out, the Crubio voteshare will be larger and Trump's margin will shrink.

 

[Plinko]

I don't get this whole Breitbart reporter story. Now she resigned? Why? It just makes it look like she was a liar.

 

[Rubenov]

I don't get this whole Breitbart reporter story. Now she resigned? Why? It just makes it look like she was a liar.

Didn't she say she was pushed to the ground when video showed that didn't happen?

 

[B-Dubs]

Bill Deblasio straight up calling Trump a racist now on CNN

man if he doesnt get reelected....

I love this man so much.