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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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T

T'Zariah

Banned
B-Dubs said:
It won't be too bad. The market's too expensive for him to flood the airwaves. At most he'll be able to afford a couple of spots. Even when it comes to statewide elections it doesn't get too crazy.
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Fuck, I forgot that NYC is basically the advertisement capital of the world.

I couldn't even imagine how expensive political ads up there must be.
 
S

Slacker

Member
I'm of course not pleased to hear that Todd Palin was injured, but I'll be happy if Sarah Palin is off the campaign trail for a while. I sincerely think that her rhetoric could push these already incited Trump crowds over the top and something terrible could happen.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
LW2IP9g.png


save me
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
T'Zariah said:
Fuck, I forgot that NYC is basically the advertisement capital of the world.

I couldn't even imagine how expensive political ads up there must be.
Click to expand...

We get some crossover from the Jersey and Connecticut elections from time to time if the campaigns have more money than god, like Linda McMahon did, but it never gets too bad. For example I've never seen an ad from Chuck Schumer in my entire life.

EDIT: Hell, come to think of it I've seen more ads for out-of-state politicians than actual NY politicians.

Macho Madness said:
And NYC is where things get decided. Tough for a candidate like Bernie unless he spends like crazy.
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He'd be better off camping out in the City and doing events, but that would mean sacrificing California.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
I am comfortable with my original prediction.

If the party is strong, Rubio.

If the party is fucked, Trump.

If the party is only kind of fucked, Cruz.

Looking forward to finding out exactly how fucked they are.
 
U

User 406

Banned
lednerg said:
Whatever, I'll take it.
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Now you're in the right frame of mind to vote for Hillary! ;D


euphemism said:
Yup, hence the term "split"
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I was talking about the electorate of the entire country. It's why the Republican party even exists as it does now.


pigeon said:
Participating in society's immune response and providing social disapproval to define the boundaries of appropriate behavior is not a waste in my view.
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The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing. #PoliticalCorrectnessHasGoneTooFar
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
These are all post-Chicago.

Trafalgar Group

Florida

Trump 44
Rubio 24
Cruz 20
Kasich 9

Morning Consult National Poll

Trump 42
Cruz 23
Rubio 12
Kasich 9

Clinton 48
Sanders 40
 
P

pigeon

Banned
For more on why the plan of getting Cruz to play along at the contested convention is unlikely, here's another great bit:

honest graft said:
And yet luck smiles on Trump. For, in an unlikely twist, his chief rival in the nomination race is Senator Ted Cruz of Texas—the one Republican politician whom party elites detest more than any other (Trump included). The undoubtedly-strong instinct of many Republicans to denounce Trump, to call for all right-thinking party members to unite in order to ensure his defeat, is stayed by the consideration that such an effort at this stage in the race would primarily benefit Cruz.

Over the weekend, the nomination race provided quantitative evidence to bear on this matter in the form of the District of Columbia Republican caucus. DC is, of course, overwhelmingly Democratic, and its relatively modest population of registered Republicans is mostly composed of political professionals: congressional staffers, campaign operatives, think tank fellows, and the like. About 2,800 of them turned out on Saturday to register their presidential preferences, producing a narrow victory for Marco Rubio—still the favorite of Republican politicos if not Republican voters—over fellow "establishment" type John Kasich. Unsurprisingly, Trump finished far behind the two leading candidates, gaining less than 14 percent of the vote—his worst showing by far in any primary or caucus in an English-speaking state or territory.

He still placed ahead of Cruz.
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http://www.honestgraft.com/2016/03/dumping-trump-without-choosing-cruz.html
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
I closed out my longer-term positions on PredictIt and now and playing favorites with some margin (such as Trump in FL).

It's slow and unexciting, but I can see how money is made this way.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Won't Trump be proof that Democracy works as intended? A small minority of the population props him up due to a broken party, the majority votes him down, the party, presumably, reforms.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/03/china-uses-trump-in-anti-democracy-propaganda.html

Donald Trump isn’t just a threat to American democracy — he may also be hurting the prospects for democratic rule in the most populous nation on Earth. On Monday, China’s state-owned Global Times published an editorial that casts Trump as proof of democracy's inherent dangers. The piece opens with a description of the clashes between protesters and Trump supporters in Chicago Friday night.

“Fist fights among voters who have different political orientations is quite common in developing countries during election seasons,” the paper observes. “Now, a similar show is shockingly staged in the US, which boasts one of the most developed and mature democratic election systems.”

In other words: Even advanced democratic systems breed violent divisions among the people. What’s more, such systems are vulnerable to takeover by an “abusively racist” and possibly fascist “clown” like Trump:
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H

HylianTom

Banned
The party is a mess.

GOP voters were given an up-close view of the turmoil that will come with a Trump nomination, and they responded with, "Hmm.. sounds good. Sign us up for 8 more months of that!"

So many warning signals, an eminently beatable opponent for the general, available decent alternatives to the electorally poisonous trainwreck frontrunner.. the party's voters are basically suiciding their party. It's astounding. For Dems, this year (thus far) could've gone so horribly, horribly wrong., but the GOP voters are giving us a reprieve.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
HylianTom said:
The party is a mess.

GOP voters were given an up-close view of the turmoil that will come with a Trump nomination, and they responded with, "Hmm.. sounds good. Sign us up for 8 more months of that!"

So many warning signals, an eminently beatable opponent for the general, available decent alternatives to the electorally poisonous trainwreck frontrunner.. the party's voters are basically suiciding their party. It's astounding. For Dems, this year (thus far) could've gone so horribly, horribly wrong., but the GOP voters are giving us a reprieve.
Click to expand...

Even more amazing is this is happening after a 2 term democrat.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Grief.exe said:
Won't Trump be proof that Democracy works as intended? A small minority of the population props him up due to a broken party, the majority votes him down, the party, presumably, reforms.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/03/china-uses-trump-in-anti-democracy-propaganda.html
Click to expand...

:lol

I remember when they tried to reform after the last election. They did all the polling, came up with a list of things they needed to change, and then promptly ignored them all.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Interesting comment from DailyKos Elections user Bart Ender (a #nevertrump Republican):

So on the weekend thread I was contemplating the house districts, states, and open senate seats that were the opposite of the variables that the Upshot correlated with Trump voters.

I took a look at four of them this morning, and I think it’s simpler than that.

I made four lists — states with a higher percentage of 1968 Wallace voters than the national average, states with less than 5% voting for John Anderson in 1980, and states with more than 10% “American” ancestry in their 2000 census forms. There were 14 states on each list. I also copied the top 10 states for mobile home usage linked to by ChadmanFL.

11 states were on at least three of the lists — 7 on all 4 (AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, NC, SC); 3 missing mobile home residents (GA, OK, TN); and WV, which was not on the Wallace list.

I don't need some sort of statistical analysis to say what I think is an obvious answer: Trump will underperform Romney less in Southern/Appalachian states that voted for Romney in 2012.

The good news for Democrats is that, if you look at the list of competitive seats from the DKE ratings, there’s only one seat (WV-02) that falls in this list of states. In the Senate, there are 10 seats the Republicans are defending that are Likely R in the DKE ratings, and only one (NC) is on this list of states.

This may not be just a wave election, it could be a tsunami.
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So basically the rise of Trump is being driven very heavily by states that won't matter in the general election (in terms of Senate, House or President) with the exception of North Carolina.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
pigeon said:
I am comfortable with my original prediction.

If the party is strong, Rubio.

If the party is fucked, Trump.

If the party is only kind of fucked, Cruz.
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Come on pigeon, even dick morris can predict what you just predicted. Live a little. The party is totally goatfucked no matter who wins!
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Plinko said:
:lol

I remember when they tried to reform after the last election. They did all the polling, came up with a list of things they needed to change, and then promptly ignored them all.
Click to expand...

They didn't just completely ignore them, they thought putting it into a different box (Rubio) would make Hispanics decide to vote for that stuff again.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Holmes said:
Rahm can do Clinton a big favor and send Sanders a big fuck you by endorsing him.
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He already very publicly told Rahm to get fucked. Wouldn't work.

pigeon said:
So, I mean, that's fine, Hillary is certainly not the first Democrat to use "well, just my personal opinion" to dodge dealing with a question where the activist left and the Democrat/moderate base differ, but the weird thing to me is that I'm not clear why Hillary feels like it's safer ground to say she kind of supports the death penalty when most Democrats now oppose it.
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I mean, the same could be said for her position on marijuana. Ain't even a new thing. And yet.... some of her positions seem to be just... her positions.

Sea Manky said:
Now you're in the right frame of mind to vote for Hillary! ;D
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god damn you, i was drinking

Plinko said:
I remember when they tried to reform after the last election. They did all the polling, came up with a list of things they needed to change, and then promptly ignored them all.
Click to expand...

Way i sees it, the problem there is that pandering radically to your base seem to pay dividends during the midterms, so they need to find a way to break out of the reinforcement loop.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
ugaboga232 said:
What is happening with the breitbart thing? 5 of them have resigned or something.
Click to expand...

Woman reporter for Breitbart claims to be manhandled by Trump campaign manager. Campaign manager denies the claim. Other reporters see it happen. Breitbart backs Trump on this. She decides to press charges. A video comes out showing that it possibly happened. Another video emerges that convinces some people it didn't happen.

A good chunk of Breitbart reporters resign after Breitbart again refuses to back her. She is one of them.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Interesting comment from DailyKos Elections user Bart Ender (a #nevertrump Republican):


So basically the rise of Trump is being driven very heavily by states that won't matter in the general election (in terms of Senate, House or President) with the exception of North Carolina.
Click to expand...
The good thing is that the demographic shifts in North Carolina, like Virginia, should help with that. The rest on the list (and West Virginia) are a lost cause though, yes. Even Georgia, but it should be close. Just not enough.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Plinko said:
:lol

I remember when they tried to reform after the last election. They did all the polling, came up with a list of things they needed to change, and then promptly ignored them all.
Click to expand...

The last two elections they just lost by large margins, this election, the party is fracturing in the middle of the nomination.

I'm hopeful it will drive some kind of change, I'm not holding my breath on that one though.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports
Sarah Palin accuses protesters of "punk-ass thuggery," turns to media and accuses reporters of enabling it. Crowd boos. No words...
 
J

j_k_redtail

Member
PBY said:
Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports
Sarah Palin accuses protesters of "punk-ass thuggery," turns to media and accuses reporters of enabling it. Crowd boos. No words...
Click to expand...
Guys, I really, really need to get Andrew Sullivan to weigh in on this election.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
T'Zariah said:
Fuck, I forgot that NYC is basically the advertisement capital of the world.

I couldn't even imagine how expensive political ads up there must be.
Click to expand...

Unless Bernie gets crushed tomorrow and loses states he's expected to win going forward, I wouldn't be surprised to see him put $10 million+ into NY and even more into CA. That said, Jeb proves that money only goes so far.

Also worth noting that the only states that vote after March 26th but before NY are Wisconsin and Wyoming: both easy Sanders wins. So that gives Bernie three weeks of time devoted almost entirely to swaying NY.
 
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