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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Great minds brah.
Forethought and intelligence hasn't been their strong suit over the past decade it seems.
Good/bad news. Ducktales is also coming back. The cycle is complete
VendettaRed07
Member
FloydtheFathead
Member
Coriolanus
Banned
Gaming side, obv.
She's an employee. It's her job to act nice towards a customer. She doesn't much care about the publicity. The polite thing to do would be to ask her permission before posting the picture online.
*used to. Yall know what hills does to a fool who crosses her.
Fairly certain he loses MO, OH is a tossup... that leaves FL and IL?
FloydtheFathead
Member
So he could be the 21st century version of James K Polk?
She heard Trump call him lying Ted and knew that's where she belonged.
Macho Madness
Member
What's not in these graphics:
She leads women by 21 percent over Trump
A Little Rant, if I may:
One of the things that has gotten to me today is seeing so many people saying "Yeah the only people who did not think Bernie was gonna win is THE MEDIA and politicians in their ivory towers!" Listen asshole, many of pundits are dickheads to be sure, but alot of people have put years of their lives trying to figure this stuff out, and then to have you come in with a fucking bumper sticker, read the results this morning and act as though you know the fucking electorial process like a Supreme Court Justice? Ridiculous. Vote how you want,but be gracious in victory as well as defeat, and dont foget that sharing videos on facebook does not make you a Doctor in political science. I cant predict elections and neither can you, so let's just have fun with this.
One of the things that has gotten to me today is seeing so many people saying "Yeah the only people who did not think Bernie was gonna win is THE MEDIA and politicians in their ivory towers!" Listen asshole, many of pundits are dickheads to be sure, but alot of people have put years of their lives trying to figure this stuff out, and then to have you come in with a fucking bumper sticker, read the results this morning and act as though you know the fucking electorial process like a Supreme Court Justice? Ridiculous. Vote how you want,but be gracious in victory as well as defeat, and dont foget that sharing videos on facebook does not make you a Doctor in political science. I cant predict elections and neither can you, so let's just have fun with this.
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
Who's he going to lose Florida to brah?
I expect the panhandle region of FL to come out strongly in favor of Trump.
Hillary with beer is best Hillary.
The problem there is that if Ted Cruz does well in FL he will do well in the panhandle and split that vote with Trump.
Rubio should do well in places like Orlando, Tampa and Miami.
BoboBrazil
Member
I can't believe Trump won Hawaii. That's gotta feel good for him.
He's probably planning a new hotel there that will blot out the sun as we speak.
gutter_trash
Banned
must be on island birthers, lol
Box of Kittens
Banned
I think Rubio's already effectively handed Florida to Trump regardless of whether he stays or drops. All those early votes + Rubio cratering = any stop Trump effort in FL is doomed
Coriolanus
Banned
Man, thats par for the course. Learning to let that shit slide is good for the soul.
So, my lazy read on last night.
We need to go from a +20 H to +2 S. 22 point swing to explain.
Roughly 8 points can probably be attributed to the polls being poorly weighted. Probably from the mess in 2008. 20 points was too high from the demographics in MI and the overall state of the race. Given the national trend, +12 would have been a better prediction.
I'd say 4-6 points can be explained by the "cocky crossover" effect. I can't say this with too much confidence and I'd want to know more about when the crossovers looked like in other states. But anecdotally, I know a ton of people who voted GOP because it looked like HRC had it sewn up, so I'm disposed towards buying the narrative. Then you have the gaffers who went ahead and voted for Sanders even though they supported Hillary for reasons. Hopefully after last night this will not be replicated.
That leaves as much as 10 points which is purely the effect of Michigan feeling the Bern. Some might be higher youth turnout due to Sanders having his back against the wall. Some is Sanders crushing in Dearborne unexpectedly. Some might by auto unions rallying at the last minute. Maybe some from Bernie outspending. And some might be a more general misread of the rust belt from pollsters. Hard to parse without being more rigorous.
Either way, until we know more I think it's reasonable to conservative give Bernie a wide benefit of the doubt on polling in MO, IL, and OH. Now, IL and OH are more favorable for HRC than MI, based on demographic benchmarks. FL and NC I think are still extremely safe big wins for HRC. MO who fucking knows. I'd say OH and MO are where Sanders will make hard stands.
Obviously last night does not change the delegate math one bit, but it's disappointing based on the narratives it will push.
We need to go from a +20 H to +2 S. 22 point swing to explain.
Roughly 8 points can probably be attributed to the polls being poorly weighted. Probably from the mess in 2008. 20 points was too high from the demographics in MI and the overall state of the race. Given the national trend, +12 would have been a better prediction.
I'd say 4-6 points can be explained by the "cocky crossover" effect. I can't say this with too much confidence and I'd want to know more about when the crossovers looked like in other states. But anecdotally, I know a ton of people who voted GOP because it looked like HRC had it sewn up, so I'm disposed towards buying the narrative. Then you have the gaffers who went ahead and voted for Sanders even though they supported Hillary for reasons. Hopefully after last night this will not be replicated.
That leaves as much as 10 points which is purely the effect of Michigan feeling the Bern. Some might be higher youth turnout due to Sanders having his back against the wall. Some is Sanders crushing in Dearborne unexpectedly. Some might by auto unions rallying at the last minute. Maybe some from Bernie outspending. And some might be a more general misread of the rust belt from pollsters. Hard to parse without being more rigorous.
Either way, until we know more I think it's reasonable to conservative give Bernie a wide benefit of the doubt on polling in MO, IL, and OH. Now, IL and OH are more favorable for HRC than MI, based on demographic benchmarks. FL and NC I think are still extremely safe big wins for HRC. MO who fucking knows. I'd say OH and MO are where Sanders will make hard stands.
Obviously last night does not change the delegate math one bit, but it's disappointing based on the narratives it will push.
Macho Madness
Member
I still blame Cheebo.
Aaron Strife
Banned
A friend of mine who grew up in Michigan said he knew Bernie would win, but admitted it wasn't grounded in anything other than a gut feeling.
Sometimes hopeless optimism pays off. And I speak from experience on that one. 2012crayonmap.jpg
Bel Marduk
Banned
Has there been any polling of missouri?
Cruz seems to do well in the flyover states
Trump is doing very well in the south but seems to have won by the highest margins in some of the bluest states
That's fair, I think.
Was it Nate Silver?
Yeah, I agree. Hillary also seems to benefit from machine politics, like MA and NV, while Sander's MI win can be partially explained by him taking that from her at the last minute.
I only expect Sanders to have a chance in OH and MO, though I can't even begin to predict the chances or margins right now. I think HRC wins IL safely though the margins might be a little lower than predicted. FL and NC are still overwhelmingly safe.
Vinsanity.
Member
I texted my brother in St Louis...he is voting for Bernie Sanders.
Poll Results
Bernie Sanders - 100%
Hillary Clinton - 0%
Agreed. In addition, his gun stances will make Chicago a bloodbath for him. He's got a much better shot at Ohio, if I were running his campaign that's where I'd put the money.
I never stopped blaming him.
What went wrong for Hillary here? We need postmortems to be sure. Please text your brother and ask "y????"
Also dumb to turn down free and seemingly innocent advertising as well. Especially since you and the business is being praised. So you're voting for someone else. Okay. Accept the damn compliment and business push. No one is suggesting you endorsed her. If that is indeed her then it shows she'll happily smile in your fact and take your money and then get nasty once you're out of sight.
The funniest part is that her Social Marketing team appears to have decided to post the pic without looking which coffee shop it was from, if they had taken a look at the instagram profile for AstroCoffee I doubt they would have made this mistake:
blackaroni
Member
Agreed and she's probably going to play up the fact that IL is her home state.
Same.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-florida-campaign-rally-220502#ixzz42R4dFE7S
Devine thinks they can still compete in NY. I know b-dubs and Cerium disagree though.
I expect gun control to be heavily highlighted in IL. Bernie's "let the states decide" stance is going to hurt him there considering where all the guns killing people in Chicago are coming from.
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