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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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P

PBY

Banned
Thunder Monkey said:
That is some completely detached from reality bullshit.

Wow.
Click to expand...

Its just baffling when the NRO freaks out about the rise of Trump - but then you read their stuff, and they continue to demonize "acaademia"', the "mainstream media" and the kind o protest movements that are against trump
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Kids are stupid. Those kids aren't stupid about Trump.

Here I made a model.
Code: 
		Variables			
		Subway Bread		Monotreme of Choice	Year of Birth	
Clinton		Wheat			Echidna			1947	
Sanders		Honey Oat		Platypus		1941	
				
Illinois	Ohio	Florida		NC	Missouri
65		20	1		88	32
35		80	99		12	68
You may refer to me by my first name, Watermelondrea.
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
PBY said:
Its just baffling when the NRO freaks out about the rise of Trump - but then you read their stuff, and they continue to demonize "acaademia"', the "mainstream media" and the kind o protest movements that are against trump
Click to expand...
Because they honestly couldn't care less about any of it.

They fear losing the power and control their specific brand of "conservatism" has maintained for decades. Not the racist demagoguery behind that loss.

It's... just sad.

edit: That's beautiful shinra.... I mean Watermelondrea.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
CCS said:
I just don't see how someone either than Trump/Cruz can be the nominee. Between them they're on course for over 75% of the delegates. If you give it to someone else in that situation you're going to start a riot.
Click to expand...
Let it burn to the ground.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
1. LOL at Rubio getting a 2.1 in high school. I'd love to see his attendance record.

2. That National Review piece is exactly why I have said Trump is popular. The establishment has been attacking working-class voters for decades, and they're finally wising up to it. Trump specifically appealed to them without being passive-aggressive like establishment candidates do, and they flock to him. It's not rocket science and the establishment better change quick or the party will fracture.
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Kids are stupid. Those kids aren't stupid about Drumpf.

Here I made a model.
Code: 
		Variables			
		Subway Bread		Monotreme of Choice	Year of Birth	
Clinton		Wheat			Echidna			1947	
Sanders		Honey Oat		Platypus		1941	
				
Illinois	Ohio	Florida		NC	Missouri
65		20	1		88	32
35		80	99		12	68
You may refer to me by my first name, Watermelondrea.
Click to expand...
I love this.
 
S

Slayven

Member
Thunder Monkey said:
HAHAHAHA!

Oh man. You gotta love it.

I mean my grandma didn't mean anything derogatory either, but it's hilarious watching an older person walk a tight rope like that. Trying to get their point across, but not quite having the right words for it.

My little bro also doesn't have a filter, so he occasionally blurts out things like "My little twinkie fuckbuddy."

That can't be good on grandma's heart.
Click to expand...
I want to believe your brother is named Lightning Monkey
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
Cerium said:
It's not just the money. Trump took out a whole generation of the Republican "deep bench." Most of these dudes will never be heard from again.
Click to expand...

Thank you for mentioning this :) Trump has wrecked a lot of what the GOP thought was their future. The 2020 slate of potential candidates is not as strong as a result. Might be what, Trump, Cruz, Haley, Sandoval and Bevin?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Y2Kev said:
CNN seriously calling today Super Tuesday again with no irony.
Click to expand...
They could've at least given it a snazzy subtitle..

B7BF0792-9544-4A10-B90E-7D50940C21CB.jpg
 
P

PBY

Banned
Donald Trump wins the first GOP contest of the day in the Northern Mariana Islands with 73% of 471 votes cast. Cruz 24%, Kasich 2% Rubio 1%

Called it
 
D

Diablos

Member
So Kasich has a plan that basically consists of winning Ohio and then using that as a platform to win a brokered convention? I guess he's thinking he will get other states like CA and PA? How's he looking there?

I would think Cruz is best suited for winning a a brokered convention as he has the most delegates behind Trump.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
brainchild said:
Both the first and second definitions refer to margin of error, just in different context. Considering that Tyler's model is non-survey based, I was referring to the second definition, which is essentially talking about observational error.

Now typically when we're talking about observational errors, we're talking about scientific instrument measurements. However, in this case, we're talking about the measurement of Tyler's statistical model. More importantly, when talking about the difference between those measurements and reality, it's referred to as 'margin of error'.

I think the problem is that Tyler's model doesn't use polls, yet he uses a statistical model. So I can see how that can be confusing, but that doesn't make my use of the term any less valid.

I honestly don't know how I can make it any clearer than I already have.
Click to expand...

I hate to bring this up again, but the Wikipedia entry is not very clear. In astronomy or physics or similar, "margin of error" is still used in much the way it is in statistics. You report the distance to a star or the mass of a particle as an observed value +/- a MoE, where the idea is that you're some % confident that the actual value is in that range. Maybe you've assumed some sort of error distribution or maybe you've just observed a known quantity a bunch of times and looked at the distribution of observations. But the difference between the actual values your instrument is spitting out and the quantity you're trying to measure is just error. MoE is doing the same work as it is in statistics where it's letting you know how much error to expect for a given observation.

You seemed to be saying that Tyler would have a margin of error of "under 3 percentage points" if his predictions were all within 3 points of the results. I think that's how everyone was interpreting you, at least. That usage of "margin of error" is not consistent with anything I've seen in engineering or astronomy. That'd just be error.
 
U

User 406

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The National Review reveals that their problem with Trump isn't the misogyny or the racism or the fascism, just that Trump says he won't let the poor die in the streets (even though his health care plan will allow that).

CdjxUcsUUAAZlBf.jpg
Click to expand...

Jesus shit.

Yeah, nothing happened to them. They just voted for people like you. And you fucked them six ways from Sunday.


Knuckle Sandwich said:
Having memories of my days as a huge Edwards guy in '08... I was crushed when he dropped out but I switched to Obama when he endorsed him and hoped he'd be the VP... Then the shit hit the fan. Then Elizabeth passed... :-( Ugh. Fuck that guy, man. Broke my political heart.
Click to expand...

Knuckle Sandwich said:
Lol. My mom felt the same way about him. Said he was like a used car salesmen. But he was the only one out there talking about the poor and their struggle and that really resonated with me.
Click to expand...

Hah, I was also leaning Edwards at the beginning for the exact same reason, although I was thrilled with all three candidates and had no problem when he dropped out.

God DAMN did we dodge a fuckin' bullet with that scumbag.


Retromelon said:
What evidence is there of reagan's huge racism?
Click to expand...

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
IDK

-Said that supporting LBJ over Goldwater was supporting tyranny over freedom
-Opposed Civil Rights Act
-Wished to end Voting Rights Act
-Vetoed Civil Rights Restoration Act
-Called the Voting Rights Act "humiliating to the South"
-Called Jefferson fucking Davis "a hero of mine"
-Opposed Fair Housing Act


Not sure if there's racism there idk.
Click to expand...

Retromelon said:
I haven't read about the jefferson davis thing but everything else looks to be like positions a conservative would defend as opposition to federal overreach rather than outright racism.
Click to expand...

Retromelon said:
You make it sound like holding conservative principles automatically designates you as racist.

Btw i did some binging on reagan and it turns out he used some unseemly terms to describe blacks while campaigning in the south; fuck his crispy old white ass.
Your rhetorical skills could use some work itwasmeantobe19, when the guy youre arguing with has to do his own legwork to prove your point
Click to expand...

Dude. DUDE. Really? Framing the fucking Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act as "federal overreach"? Sure, if you consider the Emancipation Proclamation as federal overreach, and wear a white hood. All those positions were absolutely racist positions, because they had the outcome of disproportionally hurting black people. Reagan was a racist because he supported racist policies.

This thing where people try to separate personal racism from racist actions is really disgusting, and has no purpose other than to put racism into a smaller box where it's only defined by whether or not you say racial slurs so that real systemic racism can be handwaved away. If you do racist things, YOU ARE A RACIST. You do not get to negotiate away an attempt to strip black people of voting rights because you're nice in person.

You want "conservative principles" that aren't racist? Find some way to hurt whites and minorities equally. God damn.


Cerium said:
Trump promised Carson a cabinet position.
Click to expand...

I picture this being an actual cabinet, where Carson will hide himself inside it, and smile in the dark as he imagines himself jumping out to surprise people. Nobody ever walks past this cabinet.


Grief.exe said:
Let it burn to the ground.
Click to expand...

Hey now, I live a fifteen minute bike ride from the Q, and I need to say... yeah, let it burn to the ground. I've been hoping for a well timed meteor of just the right size to not fuck up the rest of the city. :X


shinra-bansho said:
Kids are stupid. Those kids aren't stupid about Trump.

Here I made a model.
Code: 
		Variables			
		Subway Bread		Monotreme of Choice	Year of Birth	
Clinton		Wheat			Echidna			1947	
Sanders		Honey Oat		Platypus		1941	
				
Illinois	Ohio	Florida		NC	Missouri
65		20	1		88	32
35		80	99		12	68
You may refer to me by my first name, Watermelondrea.
Click to expand...

Hillary does not chuckle.
 
G

gcubed

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Kids are stupid. Those kids aren't stupid about Trump.

Here I made a model.
Code: 
		Variables			
		Subway Bread		Monotreme of Choice	Year of Birth	
Clinton		Wheat			Echidna			1947	
Sanders		Honey Oat		Platypus		1941	
				
Illinois	Ohio	Florida		NC	Missouri
65		20	1		88	32
35		80	99		12	68
You may refer to me by my first name, Watermelondrea.
Click to expand...

Does that subway bread have yoga mat in it?
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
I voted today, for Hillary.

My wife is voting Bernie.

The import thing, though, is that we are both voting against Anita Alvarez (Chicago peeps will understand).
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Are you guys trying to make some meta joke with the honey oats thing? Cuz im sitting here thinking who in god's name would ever opt for sweet bread for a salty filling.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I'm pulling up to the gate where hillarys team will be here to take me to my event!!!

Hillarys team = unionized taxi driver

If he's Hispanic then he's probably in Bernie's team tho. He won Hispanics in Nevada. I will have to ask.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Diablos said:
So Kasich has a plan that basically consists of winning Ohio and then using that as a platform to win a brokered convention? I guess he's thinking he will get other states like CA and PA? How's he looking there?

I would think Cruz is best suited for winning a a brokered convention as he has the most delegates behind Trump.
Click to expand...

Maybe Kasich's plan is to call in the Ohio National Guard to disperse the obvious violent hategroup that will be the 2016 GOP convention and steal the nomination during the confusion.

edit: Italian Herbs and Cheese is the GOAT Subway bread. Rah rah, fight the powah
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Y2Kev said:
Kasich might not even be on the ballot in PA. Unless Rubio drops the case when he drops out.
Click to expand...

He'll be on the ballot. Rubio will be done after today and Cruz isn't viable here.

Might as well hand Trump PA if Kaisch isn't running...though apparently PA has very strange delegate rules on the GOP side that makes the vast majority unpledged
 
N

nocturnalis

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Kids are stupid. Those kids aren't stupid about Trump.

Here I made a model.
Code: 
		Variables			
		Subway Bread		Monotreme of Choice	Year of Birth	
Clinton		Wheat			Echidna			1947	
Sanders		Honey Oat		Platypus		1941	
				
Illinois	Ohio	Florida		NC	Missouri
65		20	1		88	32
35		80	99		12	68
You may refer to me by my first name, Watermelondrea.
Click to expand...

This makes me miss Quiznos so much. I loved the Turkey Bacon Guacamole on Rosemary Parmesan bread.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Diablos said:
So Kasich has a plan that basically consists of winning Ohio and then using that as a platform to win a brokered convention?
Click to expand...

It's a damn good plan, and it scares the hell out of me. He could win BIG in Ohio today and be all over the news for the next several days. Maybe that would finally prompt Trump to shoot someone on 5th Avenue just for the headlines, who knows.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The Lamonster said:
It's a damn good plan, and it scares the hell out of me. He could win BIG in Ohio today and be all over the news for the next several days. Maybe that would finally prompt Trump to shoot someone on 5th Avenue just for the headlines, who knows.
Click to expand...

Except he isn't getting Trump's or Cruz's voters, so it's a weak plan.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
New York on April 19 would be the next big prize after March. Clinton’s Brooklyn team contends that her home-state advantage—plus the large minority population—makes it a serious uphill climb for Sanders, and that a similar story plays out in some of the southern New England and mid-Atlantic states voting around the same time, like Maryland and Pennsylvania. But to Sanders, a close race, or even a win, in a progressive stronghold like New York would send shockwaves through the front-runner’s base of support.
Click to expand...
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-220759#ixzz42yteYBjQ

They’re hoping such an outcome would drastically change the dynamic of the race, drowning out Clinton’s steep advantages in delegate-heavy neighboring states like New Jersey. If it works, that could accelerate Sanders’ push for delegates through largely white states like Kentucky and West Virginia in May, leading into early June, where the Sanders campaign hopes a win in California could finally allow him to take a delegate lead for the first time.
“People say Obama was never this far behind,” said Sanders strategist Tad Devine, “but—well California, New York and New Jersey were on Super Tuesday last time too.”
Click to expand...
 
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