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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Macho Madness
Member
As Nate Cohn just pointed out, impossible to really gleem any analysis from these numbers except that the GOP primary is the more interesting one.
Cook County will come late and should definitely go Hillary. If she doesn't win Chicago by a big pile then she's in huge trouble in IL.
RustyNails
Member
OH - Franklin (c-bus), Cuyahoga (cleveland), Hamilton (Cincy)
IL - Cook (Chicago). Surrounding Lake and DuPage for exurbs.
Macho Madness
Member
Chicago could also give us an early indication of which direction Indiana is headed.
All about Cook and the collar counties here in terms of how things will be shaping up.
I think it's too late now. The deadline was a few weeks ago. You could go in and ask, but I don't think you can do it.
Beer Monkey
Member
I disagree with Cohn saying Hamilton County (I'm a Cincinnatian) tilts left. Obama had a great operation here but historically the county tilts right.
Macho Madness
Member
ANDREA!!!
superdeluxe
Member
Cbus for Hillary? That's OSU territory isn't it?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-bernie-sanders-pull-off-an-upset-in-ohio/
They have Sanders winning Hawaii based off a demographics model.
They have Sanders winning Hawaii based off a demographics model.
theprodigy
Member
considering Obama also won the primary overall 65%-33% I wouldn't expect anything close to that margin
Macho Madness
Member
Well it's also a caucus state and outside of Iowa and Nevada he's done well with those.
RustyNails
Member
It is, but just like any midsize to big city there's urban population which includes AA and lots of immigrants.
Krauser Kat
Member
i think im going to vote HRC in 1st Chicago later after work.
Black Republican
Member
http://www.buzzfeed.com/anotherroun...-split-with-msnbc-i-am-not-a-civi#.geQNqxMgO8
MHP was too good for MSNBC
MHP was too good for MSNBC
Coriolanus
Banned
That's why we call them demcorats.
VendettaRed07
Member
Hillary needs to win 4/5 tonight. It's a rough month until New York.
MSNBC is clearly transitioning to some bullshit network. They hired Cruz's communication manager, the one he fired.
Macho Madness
Member
That's true. Matthews is shit.
I really only like Maddow and Chris Hayes. Brian Williams is okay. Burn the rest to the ground.
NihonTiger90
Member
Lots of young folks in Columbus compared to the rest of the state, too. Most are professionals working for big firms downtown like Nationwide, AEP, etc., so they may be more moderate than Bernie's target audience.
I would also throw in: watch Lucas County (Toledo) and Wood County (suburbs). Hillary doing well there might be a sign that she has some Rust Belt/young voter support. Losing both would reaffirm Bernie's strength with his message.
Secret Fawful
Member
Macho Madness
Member
Erie might tell us what they think of NAFTA, right?
superdeluxe
Member
Looking at the model surprising that Clinton won Iowa
superdeluxe
Member
That's not how it works.
Macho Madness
Member
You're not registered to vote at all?Oh no. I hope they let me. That would be really disappointing, if so.
You can check here just to be sure: https://s1.sos.mo.gov/elections/voterlookup/
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
MSNBC has been shit for a long, long time. I hope MHP does a podcast or somethin'.
NihonTiger90
Member
Dunno. Erie County/Sandusky is much more like a Youngstown or Lorain in its demographic make up so Bernie can win there, but I'd expect it to go heavily Trump on the GOP side.
In fact, Lorain County is your better bet to see if there's a strong anti-trade deal undercurrent in the electorate. I used to live there and they have been hammered unbelievably hard by manufacturing job losses. More so than Erie, which has Cedar Point and tourism to keep something going economically.
VendettaRed07
Member
I know. I know delegate count is all that matters. But if Bernie wins Ohio, IL and MO, even if Hillary picks up more delegates and increases her lead, we are going to get hammered with a media narrative that she's slipping, can't win northern states, etc. Especially because after today Bernie has a real chance to win every state between now and New York. I don't want to go through it.
Secret Fawful
Member
No. Nobody told me there would be a deadline so I thought I could register anytime before the election.
Oh no. I hope they let me. That would be really disappointing, if so.
If not, don't sweat it, you have plenty of time to register for the general election in November. You can still vote against Trump.
perfectchaos007
Member
The thread title is so genius. Shout out to whomever came up with it
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
How many former communication directors has Cruz had? I'm tired of these networks hiring "surrogates" for each candidate. Their dissemination of ideas is disgusting.
NihonTiger90
Member
Actually, on my last post, I'd say watch Lorain County because it should be a Hillary stronghold in traditional years. Very blue collar, mostly traditional Democrats with few young college kids outside of Oberlin and a substantial AA/Hispanic population in Lorain and Elyria (more so in the former), with quite a bit of the working class white population having union membership from working at the Ford plant in Avon Lake or the steel plant.
It's the heart of Sherrod Brown's old congressional district and if his support for Hillary can't undercut Bernie despite his popularity there, she may have a huge messaging problem on her hands in the GE.
It's the heart of Sherrod Brown's old congressional district and if his support for Hillary can't undercut Bernie despite his popularity there, she may have a huge messaging problem on her hands in the GE.
BoboBrazil
Member
Hopefully Amanda Carpenter isn't back again on CNN tonight.
Macho Madness
Member
NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll
Trump 44
Cruz 24
Kasich 12
Rubio 11
Clinton 54
Sanders 41
Trump 44
Cruz 24
Kasich 12
Rubio 11
Clinton 54
Sanders 41
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
She will be, she is absolutely insufferable. Looking forward to Van Jones vs. Jeffrey Lord round two tonight.
gutter_trash
Banned
New York City values win
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
Primary started for NC today, and I went over to my campus to vote in my very first election.
...for Bernie Sanders!
Bron-Man has betrayed HRC!
Box of Kittens
Banned
Cast my ballot for the Queen. I like Sanders a lot better in theory than in practice. Of course if by some miracle he gets the nomination I'll be voting for him in the general. Went with Duckworth for Senate. Then of course there were a bunch of local races where the Democratic primary is the "real" election.
This was my first time voting in Illinois. Voting was done by paper ballots fed into a reader. Wisconsin was the same way. I like the paper ballots. There's something very satisfying about feeding the ballot in and hearing the reader do its thing that you don't get with the electronic voting (which I experienced in Indiana and Ohio).
The most visible presence of the machine was the people with the alder's campaign outside the polling place handing out sample ballots which suggest the machine-backed candidate in all the races.
This was my first time voting in Illinois. Voting was done by paper ballots fed into a reader. Wisconsin was the same way. I like the paper ballots. There's something very satisfying about feeding the ballot in and hearing the reader do its thing that you don't get with the electronic voting (which I experienced in Indiana and Ohio).
The most visible presence of the machine was the people with the alder's campaign outside the polling place handing out sample ballots which suggest the machine-backed candidate in all the races.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Bronx-Man has joined the NWO and become Bronx-Hogan.
Who will save Hill-GAF?
Who will save Hill-GAF?
is Adam Sting now
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
I wanna vote, man. Cali having to wait til june is some fucking bullshit.
Chezzymann
Member
This one has Trump over 50% nationally
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/03/14/trump-rises-national-support-rubio-falls-and-carso/
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/03/14/trump-rises-national-support-rubio-falls-and-carso/
Orbis Tabula
Member
So, is my math right here?
Assuming Kasich wins Ohio, he gets a cumulative of 129 delegates. However, after tonight, there are only 983 delegates left to win. Even if he literally swept every other state, that leaves him with 1112 delegates. Short of what he'd need to win on the first ballot. So basically, without really strong showings in non-Ohio tonight (125 delegates across the rest of the March 15 states) or a contested convention, Kasich will be mathematically eliminated tonight.
Assuming Kasich wins Ohio, he gets a cumulative of 129 delegates. However, after tonight, there are only 983 delegates left to win. Even if he literally swept every other state, that leaves him with 1112 delegates. Short of what he'd need to win on the first ballot. So basically, without really strong showings in non-Ohio tonight (125 delegates across the rest of the March 15 states) or a contested convention, Kasich will be mathematically eliminated tonight.
RastaMentality
Banned
Kasich's only here to win Ohio. He didn't even get 2nd in Michigan, a state he should've had a close second in.
NihonTiger90
Member
Same for me, except swap Illinois for Ohio and Democratic for Republican in regards to the primary with all the local races.
I live in a very blood red part of the state. My neighbors fly a Confederate flag and a Tea Party flag. From the back of their truck.
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