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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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M

Macho Madness

Member
Chezzymann said:
This one has Trump over 50% nationally

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/03/14/trump-rises-national-support-rubio-falls-and-carso/

GOPnational1085074.png
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Fair, but YouGov does tend to overstate Trump support by quite a bit.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-bernie-sanders-pull-off-an-upset-in-ohio/

They have Sanders winning Hawaii based off a demographics model.
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The demographics model relies heavily on African-American and Hispanic population. Hawaii has very low percentages of both, since it was never a reasonable migration target during the relevant timeframes.

The more relevant question is Asian-American voters, who aren't included in the model, probably because I can't find good crosstab data on their behavior.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Politics makes 0 sense to me. Although enjoyable to watch, Rubio completely cratering like that makes no sense.

-----
Also (sorry for it being an image):
o400McG.jpg


eek
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
NihonTiger90 said:
Actually, on my last post, I'd say watch Lorain County because it should be a Hillary stronghold in traditional years. Very blue collar, mostly traditional Democrats with few young college kids outside of Oberlin and a substantial AA/Hispanic population in Lorain and Elyria (more so in the former), with quite a bit of the working class white population having union membership from working at the Ford plant in Avon Lake or the steel plant.

It's the heart of Sherrod Brown's old congressional district and if his support for Hillary can't undercut Bernie despite his popularity there, she may have a huge messaging problem on her hands in the GE.
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My former home. Sadly I was gerrymandered into a safe Republican district with a Tea Party Representative.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Four more people taken to the polls to vote for Queen. Most people I've seen at the polls have been older. Decent amount of AA voters as well. Saw a few local Union guys going into vote. We're voting for Queen.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
EskimoJoe said:
So basically, without really strong showings in non-Ohio tonight (125 delegates across the rest of the March 15 states) or a contested convention, Kasich will be mathematically eliminated tonight.
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1) Kasich knows he can't win the majority of national delegates, this is about his career, future elections, etc.
2) Predictit has the brokered convention odds at even money (!) at this point.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
RastaMentality said:
I'm not entirely sure about sanders' international agreements stances but what she said does sound true.
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The thing that pissed me off most was when Bernie started bitching that the Paris climate change agreement didn't go far enough moments after it was signed. It wasn't his version of perfect so under the bus it went.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
RastaMentality said:
Kasich's only here to win Ohio. He didn't even get 2nd in Michigan, a state he should've had a close second in.
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Beer Monkey said:
1) Kasich knows he can't win the majority of national delegates, this is about his career, future elections, etc.
2) Predictit has the brokered convention odds at even money (!) at this point.
Click to expand...

I am on the same page with you guys. I was just making sure my counting was right. My knowledge of Republicans rules is weak and I wasn't sure if there was some hail Mary for him other than the convention.
 
O

Owzers

Member
Ugh CNN, Sean Spicer RNC strategist, both sides are responsible for protests getting violent. Luckily Wolf Blitzer is there to completely roll over.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
adam387 said:
The thing that pissed me off most was when Bernie started bitching that the Paris climate change agreement didn't go far enough moments after it was signed. It wasn't his version of perfect so under the bus it went.
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Yeah, I get that it's inadequate, but the thing is that you're much better off for making future deals if that's the status quo rather than nothing. It's the same thing with health care reform and why I found the call from some elements of the left to torpedo the ACA so misguided. To Bernie's credit, at least he did vote for that.
 
J

JHoNNy1OoO

Member
Just got back from my precinct here in Miami-Dade county in Florida. Less than 200 votes cast so far across the two machines that were there. 85 on one 103 on the other. Hopefully it picks up tonight, sad to always see such low participation.
 
P

PBY

Banned
JHoNNy1OoO said:
Just got back from my precinct here in Miami-Dade county in Florida. Less than 200 votes cast so far across the two machines that were there. 85 on one 103 on the other. Hopefully it picks up tonight, sad to always see such low participation.
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Thats Rubio territory
 
F

fantomena

Member
adam387 said:
The thing that pissed me off most was when Bernie started bitching that the Paris climate change agreement didn't go far enough moments after it was signed. It wasn't his version of perfect so under the bus it went.
Click to expand...

Well it didn't. The agreement was mediocre imo.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
fantomena said:
Well it didn't. The agreement was mediocre imo.
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Not the point. You acknowledge the victories even if they're "small." You don't just shit on everyone and everything that isn't your definition of perfect. Not when you're trying to be President. If you're a backbench independent Senator, sure have at it.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Bernie Sanders on Monday told NBC’s Chuck Todd that he ran as a Democrat to get more media coverage.

During a town hall-style event in Columbus, Ohio, the independent Vermont senator said, “In terms of media coverage, you have to run within the Democratic Party.” He then took a dig at MNSBC, telling Todd, the network “would not have me on his program” if he ran as an independent.

Money also played a role in his decision to run as a Democrat, Sanders added.

“To run as an independent, you need — you could be a billionaire," he said. "If you're a billionaire, you can do that. I'm not a billionaire. So the structure of American politics today is such that I thought the right ethic was to run within the Democratic Party.”

POLITICO has previously reported that Sanders initially resisted running as a Democrat, but was convinced by his advisers that it was necessary.
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So he's a free-rider.
 
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