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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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HylianTom

Banned
I've accomplished nothing at work today so far. What are you all up to?
Slow day here at work. Watched a ton of Twilight Zone, napped a bit, read online. Wish I had brought my 3DS today.

Tonight'll be fun. Not stressing very much at all. The die is cast on pretty much both sides.
 

pigeon

Banned
My friend in Ohio got an early peek at the exit polls there.

Sanders 125
Clinton -24

I'm a little worried that the extra delegates he'll get from going over 100% will cut into Clinton's North Carolina gains. Could make it a close race.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
This makes sense:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/272986-vp-buzz-for-sherrod-brown

Vice President Sherrod Brown?

That’s the scenario gaining steam among liberal Democrats as their presidential front-runner, Hillary Clinton, struggles to win white working-class voters in the race against Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

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Though Democrats expect Clinton to ultimately triumph in the race, they are unnerved by Sanders’s upset victory last week in Michigan — a feat he hopes to repeat on Tuesday in the Rust Belt primaries of Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.
With Donald Trump increasingly likely to win the Republican nomination, some Democrats say Clinton needs to consider picking a running mate who can counter his populist appeal.

Enter Sen. Brown, a union champion in the mold of Sanders who represents the crucial swing state of Ohio.

Brown, who spent the weekend campaigning around Ohio with Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, insists he doesn’t want the promotion. But his disavowals have done little to silence the growing buzz around his name.

NBC’s Chuck Todd and MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow each floated a Clinton-Brown ticket last week.

“I put Sherrod Brown now front of the list, front of the line, as a potential running mate for her, because she’s going to need somebody who appeals to the Sanders-Warren wing,” Todd said last week, referring to the liberal icon Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

Maddow said having Brown on the ticket would come with an added bonus: His wife, Connie Schultz, is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist who is “as effective a campaigner as anyone else in the Democratic Party, and she’s never been an elected official.”

Schultz responded the next day on her Facebook page that, while she thought Todd’s imitation of her husband’s raspy voice was funny, “his insisting that Sherrod is at the top of Clinton’s VP list wasn’t as amusing.”

Brown himself has been similarly direct.

“I do not want to be vice president,” Brown told The Hill in an email.

“I love working for the people of Ohio, and I have a lot more work to do as their senator.”

Yet the VP chatter around Brown is only growing louder.

Progressives view him as in line with Warren on most issues and believe he could help propel Clinton to critical Rust Belt wins in the general election.
 

noshten

Member
Some of y'all are too media narrative driven.

Sanders doesn't just have to win but win big. Who cares if he wins 3 of 5 but loses on the overall delegates?

Shit, if Hillary wins 3 of 5 with big margins in 2, the media should hammer home that the racer is essentially over. But they won't because they want ratings.

Who cares if MSNBC found a crossover family? It's meaningless. They're going to go out of their way to find them.

Just sit back, relax. Enjoy the shitshow.

It depends on her campaign and how much she has invested in later contests also on the margins in NC and Florida. For him to really turn things around he needs to not only win 3/5 he needs to make sure she doesn't beat him by double digits in FL/NC. I think Florida will be a struggle but NC could be somewhere - where he closes the gap.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
My friend in Ohio got an early peek at the exit polls there.

Sanders 125
Clinton -24

I'm a little worried that the extra delegates he'll get from going over 100% will cut into Clinton's North Carolina gains. Could make it a close race.

Not only is it over 100, but she's hit negative numbers. I can only assume that means she loses delegates.
 

Kusagari

Member
I know five people that voted today in Florida. They all voted for Bernie and they are all black.

Looking pretty bad for the queen tbh.
 
Sherrod Brown would be replaced with a Republican that would likely keep the seat in a low turnout special election. Hillary had best stay away from Senators with Republican Governors for her VP. The Democrats don't have seats to spare with the Senate in the balance and 2018 having a really difficult map for them.
 
Some of y'all are too media narrative driven.

Sanders doesn't just have to win but win big. Who cares if he wins 3 of 5 but loses on the overall delegates?

Shit, if Hillary wins 3 of 5 with big margins in 2, the media should hammer home that the racer is essentially over. But they won't because they want ratings.

Who cares if MSNBC found a crossover family? It's meaningless. They're going to go out of their way to find them.

Just sit back, relax. Enjoy the shitshow.

the nervousness keeps getting ratcheted up. It's pretty funny, ya'll! Then you all come to your senses as soon as the results are released. :)
 
I want to see Rubio cry on live TV. It would be so glorious. Good to know that we live in a world where insinuating another candidate had a small penis backfires on you.

Going to be so pissed when Clinton loses Ohio to more damn "strategic voting." Help her finish this up, please. She could use a vacation. That would also be strategic!
Sanders doesn't just have to win but win big. Who cares if he wins 3 of 5 but loses on the overall delegates?
Many Sanders supporters do! This is their whole justification for claiming he's even vaguely competitive! "Won a lot of states." There's no other actual statistic to cling to that isn't pressing against him, because he's losing, and there's absolutely no way to avoid that fact. Apparently, despite being this far into the process, no one has explained to them how delegates work. "Won a lot of states" is not in and of itself a thing that helps you in a primary.
 
I can't tell sometimes whether some of you all are joking or are concerned.

Ben Stein- "I've not heard one racist word come out of his [Trump's] mouth".

Jlawyeahokay.gif
 
Some of y'all are too media narrative driven.

Sanders doesn't just have to win but win big. Who cares if he wins 3 of 5 but loses on the overall delegates?

Shit, if Hillary wins 3 of 5 with big margins in 2, the media should hammer home that the racer is essentially over. But they won't because they want ratings.

Who cares if MSNBC found a crossover family? It's meaningless. They're going to go out of their way to find them.

Just sit back, relax. Enjoy the shitshow.

People said not to worry about cross voting in Michigan too.
 

pigeon

Banned
Not only is it over 100, but she's hit negative numbers. I can only assume that means she loses delegates.

I'm also concerned that some of the bonus delegates Sanders gets will be batdelegates, meaning that they'll be able to defeat Hillary's superdelegates if they have time to prepare. Just another failure on the part of DWS to control the process effectively.
 

Rubenov

Member
I'm not sure I buy the assertion that the penis joke was what brought Rubio's downfall.

Marcomentum was never real, outside of a brief media-driven fantasy.

He was headed downwards regardless, but I believe the "robo" moment at the debate was more significant in him falling.

It's all conjecture anyways since it's pretty darn difficult to accurately point at ONE thing that brought a candidate's fall.
 
My friend in Ohio got an early peek at the exit polls there.

Sanders 125
Clinton -24

I'm a little worried that the extra delegates he'll get from going over 100% will cut into Clinton's North Carolina gains. Could make it a close race.
Code:
		New Variables Added									
		Living Astronaut	One-named Singer	First Initial	Age / 42		Crocodile or Alligator	McDonald's Burger	
Clinton		John Glenn		Cher			H		1.619047619		Alligator		McChicken
Sanders		Buzz Aldrin		Madonna			B		1.761904762		Crocodile		Filet-O-Fish
										
	Illinois	Ohio	Florida	Missouri	NC					
Clinton	20		79	77	30		81					
Sanders	80		21	23	70		19
I'm not seeing it in my model, and I've added some more variables to improve its accuracy.
 

Clefargle

Member
So are any of Bernie's supporters gonna be gone for spring break? Like, specifically which states have spring break schedules that coincide with the primary today?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 7m7 minutes ago Brooklyn, NY
There's a lot of liberal Rubio schadenfreude. Not totally sure I get it, unless it's just glee that he's the most viable general elx cand

Matt McDermott ‏@mattmfm 4m4 minutes ago
@Nate_Cohn he's been groomed for a decade. His fall from grace is both warranted and gratifying, to many.

Greg Sargent ‏@ThePlumLineGS 2m2 minutes ago
@Nate_Cohn 1) backlash against hyping of #MarcoMentum we endured for months; 2) we've been told endlessly that he's "nightmare for Ds"

yay
 
People said not to worry about cross voting in Michigan too.

And there's no real hard evidence it mattered.

But even if it did, Hillary and Bernie essentially tied. It isn't WTA, it's proportional.

If Bernie wins every state he wins from here on out by under 5% and Hillary wins some state by 15%+, it's not competitive even if Sanders wins more states.

in the Democrat Primaries, who wins a state means nothing, only margins matter. This is not true in the Republican Primary where margins do matter but so do Districts as well as who wins.

If you swap Michigan to Hillary by the same margin as Bernie got, the delegate count changes in an insignificant way and yet the media would be talking about how Bernie is close to done.

Stop paying any attention to the horse race media. Focus on media that cares about delegates and such.

My point isn't to argue Bernie is done but it is to argue that who wins a state doesn't matter. If Bernie wins every state today 50.1-49.9, he loses.
 
So are any of Bernie's supporters gonna be gone for spring break? Like, specifically which states have spring break schedules that coincide with the primary today?
OSU springbreak started yesterday. Most of them probably left on Friday. In any case, I dont believe this causes a huge problem thanks to early voting and mailing.
 
Code:
		New Variables Added									
		Living Astronaut	One-named Singer	First Initial	Age / 42		Crocodile or Alligator	McDonald's Burger	
Clinton		John Glenn		Cher			H		1.619047619		Alligator		McChicken
Sanders		Buzz Aldrin		Madonna			B		1.761904762		Crocodile		Filet-O-Fish
										
	Illinois	Ohio	Florida	Missouri	NC					
Clinton	20		79	77	30		81					
Sanders	80		21	23	70		19
I'm not seeing it in my model, and I've added some more variables to improve its accuracy.


XS5LK.gif
 
Kyle just brought me a bottle of OYO Barrel Finished Honey Vanilla Bean Vodka, and told me to drink it or he'll kill me.

I think I'm going to marry him.
 
Marco Rubio is probably the embodiment of movement conservatism and that he's losing to a horrific bigot with no idea of policy shows that no one ever cared about conservative ideas, just the bigotry. People didn't vote for Reagan because he hated Social Security and Medicare, they voted for Reagan because Reagan really hated black people. This primary season is good proof.
 
Code:
		New Variables Added									
		Living Astronaut	One-named Singer	First Initial	Age / 42		Crocodile or Alligator	McDonald's Burger	
Clinton		John Glenn		Cher			H		1.619047619		Alligator		McChicken
Sanders		Buzz Aldrin		Madonna			B		1.761904762		Crocodile		Filet-O-Fish
										
	Illinois	Ohio	Florida	Missouri	NC					
Clinton	20		79	77	30		81					
Sanders	80		21	23	70		19
I'm not seeing it in my model, and I've added some more variables to improve its accuracy.

Bernie is soooo a Filet-o-Fish, with that sad little piece of yellow cheese. And that shitty steamed bun. It's perfect.
 

pigeon

Banned
Code:
		New Variables Added									
		Living Astronaut	One-named Singer	First Initial	Age / 42		Crocodile or Alligator	McDonald's Burger	
Clinton		John Glenn		Cher			H		1.619047619		Alligator		McChicken
Sanders		Buzz Aldrin		Madonna			B		1.761904762		Crocodile		Filet-O-Fish
										
	Illinois	Ohio	Florida	Missouri	NC					
Clinton	20		79	77	30		81					
Sanders	80		21	23	70		19
I'm not seeing it in my model, and I've added some more variables to improve its accuracy.

This is a very in-depth model, but I think I've identified a possible issue. Technically the Filet-O-Fish is a sandwich, not a burger.*




* Amazingly, Wikipedia and the McDonald's website have exactly opposite opinions as to which of these two items is a sandwich and which a burger. As a result this joke required way too much research time to write.
 

studyguy

Member
Marco Rubio is probably the embodiment of movement conservatism and that he's losing to a horrific bigot with no idea of policy shows that no one ever cared about conservative ideas, just the bigotry. People didn't vote for Reagan because he hated Social Security and Medicare, they voted for Reagan because Reagan really hated black people. This primary season is good proof.

Just makes you want to go forward two decades or so to see how history spins out the post Obama presidency US.
 

Key789

Banned
When the chat opens, how do I access it? BTW what is everyone drinking tonight (besides Marcos tears). I've got a new sativa strain. I don't know why, but whenever I get high I LOVE to read political articles. Makes it seem like I'm reading a script for a West Wing episode.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Rubio and Bush out?

Obama Bill and Hillary are the most luckiest Democrats ever with their opponents.

The Republican party will be for generations wondering how they let these 3 keep getting await with it.
 
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