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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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U

ugaboga232

Member
jaekeem said:
I think he would've been fine. Look at trump's appeal. A large part of it is because he's telling people what they want to hear (same as Bernie), and the rest is the bombastic and soundbite friendly nature of his public speeches/delivery.

Bernie was kinda similar, but he was too late in realizing that he was starting behind against Hillary. He needed to be on the full offensive from the outset. You can't win an election if you aren't in the game to fight hard.
Click to expand...

What politician isn't telling their supporters what they want to hear?
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
billeh said:
Cook County has a knack for just flat out voting weird. Dorothy Brown's circuit court office was indicted by the FBI and yet she still wins. Not to mention Jesse Jackson Jr not too long ago .. We love corruption.
Click to expand...

And she's done a terrible job running the office to boot. I voted for Meister and really thought he was far and away the best choice, but I'm not surprised at this outcome.
 
A

Armaros

Member
jaekeem said:
I think he would've been fine. Look at trump's appeal. A large part of it is because he's telling people what they want to hear (same as Bernie), and the rest is the bombastic and soundbite friendly nature of his public speeches/delivery.

Bernie was kinda similar, but he was too late in realizing that he was starting behind against Hillary. He needed to be on the full offensive from the outset. You can't win an election as an underdog if you aren't in the game to fight hard.
Click to expand...

Besides the Reddit , Democratic voters don't like super negative campaigning in their primaries.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
jaekeem said:
I think he would've been fine. Look at trump's appeal. A large part of it is because he's telling people what they want to hear (same as Bernie), and the rest is the bombastic and soundbite friendly nature of his public speeches/delivery.

Bernie was kinda similar, but he was too late in realizing that he was starting behind against Hillary. He needed to be on the full offensive from the outset. You can't win an election as an underdog if you aren't in the game to fight hard.
Click to expand...

If you look at a lot of his supporters, they took pride in the fact he wasn't slinging that mud. It let him stand apart, as an outsider to the process, as not a real politician. I don't think he gets as much support if he starts off slinging that mud.
 
J

jaekeem

Member
ugaboga232 said:
What politician isn't telling their supporters what they want to hear?
Click to expand...

The point is that Bernie and Trump are much more populist in their campaigns than their competitors, and try to appeal through sweeping and assumptive statements, rather than acknowledging necessary compromises more indicative of reality.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Black Mamba said:
BTW, calling Obama's decisions 11th dimensional chess may really be a mistake.

What we need is a term for the GOP decisions being 11th dimensional chess...only in reverse.

I have no idea what this is but it needs a name.
Click to expand...
11 dimensional own goal

Obama is just playing a really solid game of checkers against it.
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Bowdz said:
Honestly, I'm fine with Bernie staying in provided he stops attacking Hillary.

Every campaign has to come to an end in its own way especially when it is a campaign like Sanders that has massive grassroots support. If they want to be delusional about delegates and superdelegates, that's fine. Just stop smearing Hillary and dragging her through the mud. Sanders and his supporters will come around to the reality of the situation on their own while Hillary just needs to keep campaigning and focus on the general.
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He's a 74 year old who has been registered in the party for all of 1 year. The only reason he even entered as a Democrat was for the $. He has no future with the party nor does he have any stake in it. The desperation has been ratcheting up and I do not expect him to either drop out or stop the attacks any time soon. If anything I expect things to get worse. Hillary mended things with Obama because there was political gain for her, both immediately and a in a future presidential run and because she actually gives a shit about the party. Bernie has absolutely no reason to help out a party he doesn't even care for, he'll go back to being an independent the day he drops out.
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
jaekeem said:
The point is that Bernie and Trump are much more populist in their campaigns than their competitors, and try to appeal through sweeping and assumptive statements, rather than acknowledging necessary compromises more indicative of reality.
Click to expand...

Hillary makes a lot of sweeping statements too though she at least recognizes the limitations. Still a lot of what she says/her website says is far more optimistic than what she can do.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
B-Dubs said:
If you look at a lot of his supporters, they took pride in the fact he wasn't slinging that mud. It let him stand apart, as an outsider to the process, as not a real politician. I don't think he gets as much support if he starts off slinging that mud.
Click to expand...
I know lol Reddit but I read some stories about phonebanking on the Sanders Reddit. Some talked about how people would ask questions about the candidates. They discovered that if you went negative on Hillary, people would just hang up on you.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Something to ponder:
- Scalia replaced by a lefty in 2016
- Ginsburg replaced by a lefty in 2017
- Breyer replaced by a lefty in 2018

There's a good chance that the oldest liberal of a 5-liberal majority in 2018 is going to be 65 years old. That's quite a dip from our current situation.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
Has anyone monitored right wing blogs / sites for their reaction to the Garland nom?

A lot of them were expecting Obama to nominate the baddest baby-eater he could find.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
One of my Facebook friends is going to run as a delegate in a GOP primary. Here's what they're telling inside folks on the phone.

secret sources said:
-the party members are like 160 people who are not influencing the 2500 delegates. There's no "establishment" conspiracy. They have a hard enough time just facilitating and getting the convention together.
-if the convention is contested, the delegates MAY HAVE the right to modify the rules (waiting on RNC legal) to allow delegates bound to suspended candidates to recast their votes in the first ballot.
-if it goes to a second ballot, it will be a mess, but delegates will essentially keep voting until someone gets the 1,237 required. This is where I expect to see the real wheeling and dealing.
Click to expand...

I bolded the important bit. This is an interesting legal wrinkle -- that would mean all delegates bound to current candidates would have to keep their current vote, but all delegates bound to suspended candidates would be able to change their vote. If all the candidates except Trump and one other have dropped out by then, they could use that opportunity to force Trump to lose.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
sc0la said:
11 dimensional own goal

Obama is just playing a really solid game of checkers against it.
Click to expand...

So Obama is Leicester City playing against Aston Villa's defense?

Or is the GOP just the English national team, which has scored on itself like 48 times.

Macho Madness said:
I know lol Reddit but I read some stories about phonebanking on the Sanders Reddit. Some talked about how people would ask questions about the candidates. They discovered that if you went negative on Hillary, people would just hang up on you.
Click to expand...

This doesn't shock me at all.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
HylianTom said:
Something to ponder:
- Scalia replaced by a lefty in 2016
- Ginsburg replaced by a lefty in 2017
- Breyer replaced by a lefty in 2018

There's a good chance that the oldest liberal of a 5-liberal majority in 2018 is going to be 65 years old. That's quite a dip from our current situation.
Click to expand...

Hopefully Ginsburg/Breyer retire before the Republicans retake the Senate in 2018.
 
J

jaekeem

Member
pigeon said:
One of my Facebook friends is going to run as a delegate in a GOP primary. Here's what they're telling inside folks on the phone.



I bolded the important bit. This is an interesting legal wrinkle -- that would mean all delegates bound to current candidates would have to keep their current vote, but all delegates bound to suspended candidates would be able to change their vote. If all the candidates except Trump and one other have dropped out by then, they could use that opportunity to force Trump to lose.
Click to expand...

Seems insanity

It would leak out and trump supporters would go ballistic in the general if they stole the nom that way
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
darkside31337 said:
He's a 74 year old who has been registered in the party for all of 1 year. The only reason he even entered as a Democrat was for the $. He has no future with the party nor does he have any stake in it. The desperation has been ratcheting up and I do not expect him to either drop out or stop the attacks any time soon. If anything I expect things to get worse. Hillary mended things with Obama because there was political gain for her, both immediately and a in a future presidential run and because she actually gives a shit about the party. Bernie has absolutely no reason to help out a party he doesn't even care for, he'll go back to being an independent the day he drops out.
Click to expand...

I hope you are wrong, but you have a decent argument.
 
H

Holmes

Member
My father-in-law has decided to vote for Trump in the CA primary. My mother-in-law changed her mind and said there's no way she can vote for Trump ever. Both Democrats.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
HylianTom said:
Something to ponder:
- Scalia replaced by a lefty in 2016
- Ginsburg replaced by a lefty in 2017
- Breyer replaced by a lefty in 2018

There's a good chance that the oldest liberal of a 5-liberal majority in 2018 is going to be 65 years old. That's quite a dip from our current situation.
Click to expand...

I can only get so erect.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Basileus777 said:
Hopefully Ginsburg/Breyer retire before the Republicans retake the Senate in 2018.
Click to expand...
That's what I'm hoping. They have to be aware that they're pushing their luck (already).

The greedy part of me is hoping for two more things:
- Trump gives the Dems a wave election to where the Dem new Senate majority has enough cushion to survive losses in 2018
- Kennedy, turning 80 in a few months, departs during Hillary's term
 
K

Kusagari

Member
darkside31337 said:
He's a 74 year old who has been registered in the party for all of 1 year. The only reason he even entered as a Democrat was for the $. He has no future with the party nor does he have any stake in it. The desperation has been ratcheting up and I do not expect him to either drop out or stop the attacks any time soon. If anything I expect things to get worse. Hillary mended things with Obama because there was political gain for her, both immediately and a in a future presidential run and because she actually gives a shit about the party. Bernie has absolutely no reason to help out a party he doesn't even care for, he'll go back to being an independent the day he drops out.
Click to expand...

It's partly what annoys me about him. The best possible thing about Bernie's candidacy would be him taking the loss in stride and using the momentum he gained throughout the campaign to help young progressives in the party.

What I actually expect him to do is lose, go back to being an Independent and do nothing to foster the support he built up.
 
M

Makai

Member
HylianTom said:
Something to ponder:
- Scalia replaced by a lefty in 2016
- Ginsburg replaced by a lefty in 2017
- Breyer replaced by a lefty in 2018

There's a good chance that the oldest liberal of a 5-liberal majority in 2018 is going to be 65 years old. That's quite a dip from our current situation.
Click to expand...
Ginsburg doesn't seem like she wants to retire.
 
S

studyguy

Member
B

Black Mamba

Member
HylianTom said:
That's what I'm hoping. They have to be aware that they're pushing their luck (already).

The greedy part of me is hoping for two more things:
- Trump gives the Dems a wave election to where the Dem new Senate majority has enough cushion to survive losses in 2018
- Kennedy, turning 80 in a few months, departs during Hillary's term
Click to expand...

Clinton replacing 4 Justices in her first 4 years would drive the base mad.
 
A

ampere

Member
Macho Madness said:
Bernie is losing because he didn't try to court the Obama coalition

And because Hillary did, she is the much stronger general election candidate.

That was linked to me and it made a lot of sense. And it was written before any votes had been cast.
Click to expand...

Interesting read. It's really quite insane how Bernie's campaign seemed to say "ah w/e" regarding appealing to high black pop % states. Over the past few months I've come to see that the economic approach to fighting racism isn't really the answer either
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
RustyNails said:
Any fracking backfire? I believe theres a huge fracking industry on the eastern part. Why didnt Clintons comments on clean coal hurt her, if fracking comments hurt Sanders? In any case, I hope he learns a lesson here: sweeping generalized yes and no answers on complex issues like trade and energy has an impact. It makes a good applause line during a debate though!
Click to expand...

Dunno, but anything pro-coal would help Hillary in SE Ohio, probably. Did she also get Strickland's endorsement or support? He is still very popular in that part of the state.
 
D

daedalius

Member
Macho Madness said:
This puts things in perspective for those who still don't get it:

Cdsj7bkWwAAWWP4.jpg
Click to expand...

SHES ALL OUT OF DEEP RED STATES NOW
BERNIES BEST STATES ARE YET TO COME

all over my FB wall
 
S

Sianos

Member
The GOP old guard have to know that if they lose the party to Trump, they aren't getting it back when he loses and will be without a party.

They're desperate, I think they're going to try something especially with Obama's knowledge of exactly what he's doing now hammering them on the Supreme Court front and further accelerating the deterioration of the party.

Ideally, Bernie will drop out well before the California primary and a large amount of Democrats will cross-over vote to ensure the brokered convention. I think Trump winning the nomination would make for an easy November victory, but the meltdowns at the convention betrayal will cause the gashes in the party to entirely split open. The Trump supporters aren't kidding when they say that they will riot.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
pigeon said:
One of my Facebook friends is going to run as a delegate in a GOP primary. Here's what they're telling inside folks on the phone.



I bolded the important bit. This is an interesting legal wrinkle -- that would mean all delegates bound to current candidates would have to keep their current vote, but all delegates bound to suspended candidates would be able to change their vote. If all the candidates except Trump and one other have dropped out by then, they could use that opportunity to force Trump to lose.
Click to expand...

This is going to be a complete disaster. Just reading comments from conservative websites today that carried that "Boehner supports Paul Ryan for President" article...those people were furious about this even being a consideration. "I'll stay home and vote for nobody" was the common theme.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Large swaths of text from an op-ed penned by Republican frontrunner Donald Trump appear to be pulled almost word for word from a column written by Ben Carson just days earlier for another U.S. territorial newspaper.

The sweeping similarities between the columns were first reported Wednesday by the conservative news site Daily Caller.

Carson adviser Armstrong Williams declined to comment to the site, but said in reference to ex-Carson campaign staffers, “There’s no question they’re working for Mr. Trump now.”

The Trump campaign did not immediately response to a TPM request for comment.

The first column appeared under the byline Dr. Ben Carson in Mariana Variety, a Northern Mariana Islands publication, on Feb. 26. On March 9, a column with Trump’s byline appeared in the Pacific Daily News in Guam. Carson dropped out of the race on March 4 and endorsed Trump one week later.

Carson’s piece begins: “Many Americans do not appreciate the patriotism exhibited by our brothers and sisters in the Territories of American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.”

Trump’s column opens, “Throughout the history of our nation, the patriotism exhibited by our brothers and sisters in the Territories of American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Commonwealths of Puerto Rico and the Northern Mariana Islands has often gone unacknowledged.”

Carson’s Marianas column also included a three-point bulleted list of U.S. territory-focused policies he planned to implement should he be elected President. The wording for all three of those initiatives appeared almost word for word in Trump’s text less than two weeks later.

In other portions of the texts, the only alterations made between Carson and Trump’s versions were spelling and grammar.

“I am saddened to hear that every day, more and more of you in the territories and commonwealths are leaving your families and homes because the healthcare and educational systems are inadequate,” Carson wrote.

“I am saddened to hear that, every day, more and more citizens in the territories and commonwealths are leaving their families and homes because the health care and educational systems are inadequate,” Trump said in his column.

You can view a color-coordinated side-by-side comparison of the texts over at the Daily Caller.

Trump is far from the first 2016 Republican to run into attribution troubles.

BuzzFeed Politics found Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), once hailed as a top-tier candidate for the nomination, plagiarized texts from Wikipedia entries for movies, online articles, and newspaper op-eds in his speeches and books. Paul eventually owned said the controversy “is my fault,” but many credited the dust-up as a factor in the senator’s demise.

While he was vying with Trump in the GOP race, it was revealed that Carson employed a flexible version of the truth in his personal recollections and eventually apologized for plagiarizing parts of his 2012 book “America the Beautiful”
Click to expand...

LOLOLOL
 
C

Crocodile

Member
A) Ok that Trump Instagram video on Hilary is fucked up but still hilarious

B) When did "11th dimensional chess" become a meme? Why did we skip the 4th-10th dimensions?

C) Man, the Sanders campaign is getting desperate. I understand why but its not a good look :/

Macho Madness said:
Bernie is losing because he didn't try to court the Obama coalition

And because Hillary did, she is the much stronger general election candidate.

That was linked to me and it made a lot of sense. And it was written before any votes had been cast.
Click to expand...

I mean I hate that this was written as a series of like 100 tweets instead of a blog post or a proper article but she's spitting hot truth. It's hard to run as a "change" candidate when the person/principles you are trying to represent a change from is super popular and running against that coalition/message has already proven to be a losing strategy,
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
I think I prefer Samantha Bee's humor way more over Oliver's. I think Oliver balances his show towards more jokes over the issues but it doesn't work as well for me.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Macho Madness said:
Bernie is losing because he didn't try to court the Obama coalition

And because Hillary did, she is the much stronger general election candidate.

That was linked to me and it made a lot of sense. And it was written before any votes had been cast.
Click to expand...

This is what happens when you hire out of touch people from the 80s to run your campaign, and when you're divorced from democrat politics. You can't win the democrat nomination for president without doing well with the "Obama coalition." That's simply a mathematical fact of the present and future.

Let's not forget that John Edwards spent a good amount of time re-introducing himself to black groups and churches in 2006 and early 2007. Hillary did the same. Obama did too. Because they all recognized the importance. Bernie is either a political amateur who truly believed he could win the nomination solely by winning college campuses or he had no actual plan to win the nomination.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Crocodile said:
A) Ok that Trump Instagram video on Hilary is fucked up but still hilarious

B) When did "11th dimensional chess" become a meme? Why did we skip the 4th-10th dimensions?

C) Man, the Sanders campaign is getting desperate. I understand why but its not a good look :/



I mean I hate that this was written as a series of like 100 tweets instead of a blog post or a proper article but she's spitting hot truth. It's hard to run as a "change" candidate when the person/principles you are trying to represent a change from is super popular and running against that coalition/message has already proven to be a losing strategy,
Click to expand...

The point about Killer Mike was amazing
 
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