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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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Bernie is losing because he didn't try to court the Obama coalition

And because Hillary did, she is the much stronger general election candidate.

That was linked to me and it made a lot of sense. And it was written before any votes had been cast.

"The Flint water crisis didn't happen because of unbridled greed on Wall Street, it happened because of unbridled racism on Main Street."


Goddamn. I was not for that fire, everything is on point. Obama built a largely bulletproof coalition for the Dems that they have been running from in the off years. Clinton at least is going after that and not staying arms length from Obama, unlike Sanders.
 
OTOH, the Progressive's Dilemma is a real thing that's been measured.

Part of that has been present in America's history, having federal and state programs to help whites, but not minorities. Although, I don't believe we actually have one in the same caliber like in some nations despite the fact we spend more money on those programs. It is more like if we start to have more of those programs would we start to have the dilemma. All that is besides the point, I don't think it will happen because the real movement of actually wanting socialism seems to be in college campuses, but to me it looks like more of a entirely self-interest thing of wanting stuff they don't have to pay for. In Hillary was to be president and manages to to decrease college prices I wonder if those people will still care once they leave college. The other movement seems to be from older lower middle class whites, but the support seems more opportunistic and not really caring about social democracy or socialism , but whatever helps them from their issues. I think Hillary is more of a progressive and liberal that is pretty capitalist and doesn't necessarily believe increasing the size of the government if they are ways around it.
 

Owzers

Member
As i thought before, Hillary is going to have to have a good response at a debate when Trump calls Bill a serial rapist and she protected and encouraged him in front of 20-40 or however million people are watching on tv.
 
How exactly is she going to miss the mark with those groups against DONALD FUCKING TRUMP

.

I understand no one wants to look cocky but let's be real. Trump is the weakest general election candidate in modern history. He's also a spectacle everyone wants to be a part of, meaning turnout will be very high. And he happens to insult every minority group+women. Unless every white man in the country votes for him he's not going to win, folks.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
.

I understand no one wants to look cocky but let's be real. Trump is the weakest general election candidate in modern history. He's also a spectacle everyone wants to be a part of, meaning turnout will be very high. And he happens to insult every minority group+women. Unless every white man in the country votes for him he's not going to win, folks.

Say we get to September and its looking like Trump will lose by 10 or greater pts. What states are they likely to invest in for a hail mary lights align sort of thing?

I think MO, IN, NC AZ and GA. Everything else is wishful thinking. Senate map is a different story. Does Rand Paul get a scare? Boozemen? Isackson pushed below 50? Louisiana open seat looks hot?
 
http://www.gallup.com/poll/1687/race-relations.aspx

Wow. That's gotta be the fastest change on social issues in an opinion poll I've ever seen. Definitely explains Trump.

Nope.

CXKdoldVAAAsfpH.png
 
That Storify is correct in that running away from the Obama coalition that won two elections in a row was a stupid strategy for Sanders to try employing, but A) writing it in a series of 100 Tweets is absolutely idiotic, and B) the rise and propagation of worldviews that frame absolutely every aspect of society and politics, big and small, in terms of racism and privilege, and scorns and condescends toward dissenters, is going to make the Retrumplican coalition larger and more powerful over time, I suspect.

Edit: Also, very odd that she talks about the claimed racist origins of Social Security by linking to a WaPo article calling attention to a historian that actually works for the SSA who claims that the "farmhands and maids" exemption was made not because Southern democrats desired to protect racism, but because they didn't think covering those workers was administratively feasible due to how taxes were collected at the time.

Granted, that might be dog-whistle language, but given this was the 1930s, not the 1990s, one would expect there to be more specific racial references in the historical record if race were a primary motivating factor in the decision.
 

PBY

Banned
what states are they likely to invest in for a hail mary light align sort of thing?

I think MO, IN, NC AZ and GA. Everything else is wishful thinking. Senate map is a different story. Does Rand Paul get a scare? Boozemen? Isackson pushed below 50? Louisiana open seat looks hot?

Some of the rust belt gotta be in there
 
Garland sounds like a really good judge, but just not a left wing activist, hmmmmm.

Philosophical, Garland sounds like the exact type of person who should be a Supreme Court judge. But politically... I don't know if he's the best possible choice for advancing left wing ideas.
 

Cerium

Member
QwpBX57.jpg


Garland sounds like a really good judge, but just not a left wing activist, hmmmmm.

Philosophical, Garland sounds like the exact type of person who should be a Supreme Court judge. But politically... I don't know if he's the best possible choice for advancing left wing ideas.

I hope that if Hillary wins in November, Garland withdraws himself at Obama's encouragement.

Then Madam President rams Goodwin Liu down their throats with no regard for gag reflex. With Stevens gone and Ginsburg on her way out, we're going to need a new liberal champion on the court.
 
Say we get to September and its looking like Trump will lose by 10 or greater pts. What states are they likely to invest in for a hail mary lights align sort of thing?

I think MO, IN, NC AZ and GA. Everything else is wishful thinking. Senate map is a different story. Does Rand Paul get a scare? Boozemen? Isackson pushed below 50? Louisiana open seat looks hot?

Sure if the loss is truly that drastic. I don't think it'll be that, and tbh many of those states seem prime for Trump's message. I don't see a democrat winning MO/IN/AZ in November. NC will be in play. 2016 is probably too early for GA to go blue right? Not sure.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
.

I understand no one wants to look cocky but let's be real. Trump is the weakest general election candidate in modern history. He's also a spectacle everyone wants to be a part of, meaning turnout will be very high. And he happens to insult every minority group+women. Unless every white man in the country votes for him he's not going to win, folks.

Truth. Unless everybody stays home since it will be such a sure thing. Then again the fear of him even having a chance of winning, and the prospect of voting for the first woman President of the United States, should prevent that from happening.
 

Owzers

Member
O'Reilly is great, Dennis Miller on bringing up the knock out game and thats' worse than the protester being sucker punched. He did give him the finger.
 

Gattsu25

Banned
Bernie is losing because he didn't try to court the Obama coalition

And because Hillary did, she is the much stronger general election candidate.

That was linked to me and it made a lot of sense. And it was written before any votes had been cast.

This is a great read.

Hell, there are folk in red states who still can't even enjoy fully implemented Obamacare yet, and y'all are whining about single payer.

...

They couldn't care less about the big banks because they're already convinced that Blacks, Muslims, and Mexicans are their worst enemies.

...

The Flint water crisis didn't happen because of unbridled greed on Wall Street, it happened because of unbridled racism on Main Street.

...

Hurricane Katrina went from a natural disaster to a man made disaster precisely b/c of racism and institutionalized neglect of the unheard.​

18wbi5cr1da2lgif.gif
 
Cruz's aides are hopeful for a path that leads them to as many as 1,252 delegates, according to a campaign memo authored by Cruz analytics chief Chris Wilson. Trump currently leads him by 254 delegates, and that lead may grow next Tuesday, when campaign aides are signaling that Trump is likely to defeat them in Arizona, which awards 58 delegates.

Cruz aides predict that 55% of the vote there has already been cast, and they expect John Kasich to play spoiler and prevent Cruz from overtaking Trump's early vote lead on election day. They are more confident next Tuesday about Utah, which has fewer delegates but is a caucus state and one where they hope Utah Sen. Mike Lee's endorsement can pay dividends.
Yes. Cruz is not going to have a good time from here on out.
 
I enjoyed that Obama coalition article/twitter thing. There were so many things that went wrong with Bernie's campaign. The way it was run, for instance, is just...it baffles me. I'm not sure he could have beaten Hillary, but I think he could have done a hell of a lot better. If he hadn't abandoned the south, he could have done a lot better.

The thing is, though, Bernie was always going to do this his way. He'd gain supporters by the sheer magnitude of how right he is about every little thing. This is why him as a President was always worrying to me. To pretend that you don't have to moderate any position, and everyone has to join you on the top of the mountain is just baffling to me! The way he navigated the losses is another thing that just gets me.

And, quite literally, I would not feel comfortable with a Democratic candidate who had such a problem winning minority voters. I didn't expect him to get 90% of the AA vote being relatively new to the national stage, but to literally lose some demos 96/3 is worrying to me.

It's a shame, because he clearly does have a movement around him. If he'd be willing to channel that to the Democratic party, we'd be in great shape. Of course, I don't think he will, because he doesn't give two shillings about the party. He's only slumming it with us because we were useful.

He needs to tone down the negativity against Hillary. If he won't do it willingly, then I have no issue with gently reminding him that his seniority exists because we allow it to. I know that's not a popular opinion, and I don't think it's come to that yet, but I'd nicely remind him of it anyway. This ain't RuPaul's Best Friend Race, after all.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Cruz's appeal is considerably more limited than I thought it would be. Which is impressive because it's considerably BROADER than I thought it would be when this started. After the first debate, I was like wow, everyone on that stage SUCKS, so Cruz has a shot.

People forget Marcobot said that if the election were decided based on resume, HILLARY CLINTON would win
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If they're already conceding Arizona, he's really not coming anywhere close.

The map turns significantly less friendly though for Cruz in coming months, with very few evangelical and deep red states left to vote. Johnson though is pointing to two April states where they expect to wage war: Wisconsin, where advisers say to expect "a lot of Cruz campaign activity," and Trump's delegate-rich homestate of New York.

"If you think we're ceding New York because Donald Trump hails from Queens and lives in Manhattan, that would be a mistake," Johnson said.

The other date circled on the Cruz calendar: June 7, the largest delegate day remaining on the calendar. Cruz has long pointed to surprisingly strong polling in California, and the memo says he is currently on track to win 55% of the vote there. It also says Cruz is positioned to win Montana, and to take home a majority of New Mexico's delegates.

Oh, New York and California are part of this hopeful plan?

Come on, Ted. He might take California but it will be close and that isn't going to be enough.
 
I enjoyed that Obama coalition article/twitter thing. There were so many things that went wrong with Bernie's campaign. The way it was run, for instance, is just...it baffles me. I'm not sure he could have beaten Hillary, but I think he could have done a hell of a lot better. If he hadn't abandoned the south, he could have done a lot better.

The thing is, though, Bernie was always going to do this his way. He'd gain supporters by the sheer magnitude of how right he is about every little thing. This is why him as a President was always worrying to me. To pretend that you don't have to moderate any position, and everyone has to join you on the top of the mountain is just baffling to me! The way he navigated the losses is another thing that just gets me.

And, quite literally, I would not feel comfortable with a Democratic candidate who had such a problem winning minority voters. I didn't expect him to get 90% of the AA vote being relatively new to the national stage, but to literally lose some demos 96/3 is worrying to me.

It's a shame, because he clearly does have a movement around him. If he'd be willing to channel that to the Democratic party, we'd be in great shape. Of course, I don't think he will, because he doesn't give two shillings about the party. He's only slumming it with us because we were useful.

He needs to tone down the negativity against Hillary. If he won't do it willingly, then I have no issue with gently reminding him that his seniority exists because we allow it to. I know that's not a popular opinion, and I don't think it's come to that yet, but I'd nicely remind him of it anyway. This ain't RuPaul's Best Friend Race, after all.

On the other hand, hillary gets stomped in the youth by almost similar margins (not as much in minorities but surprisingly across gender).

Honestly he got a lot further than most people thought (almost certainly himself as well). I think him joining the race was overwhelmingly positive for everyone involved at the end of the day. Hillary can handle this heat (trump may be a crap candidate but boy does he know how to dumpster campaigns).
 
I just checked and technically I'm still registered to vote in Idaho despite not living there anymore and being registered in Indiana. I wonder if I'll get any calls over the next week. Never participated in a caucus or primary before though, so I don't know if I'd be on the list.
 
He needs to tone down the negativity against Hillary. If he won't do it willingly, then I have no issue with gently reminding him that his seniority exists because we allow it to. I know that's not a popular opinion, and I don't think it's come to that yet, but I'd nicely remind him of it anyway. This ain't RuPaul's Best Friend Race, after all.
You can't join a party after 40 years of actively running against it, take a shit all over the other candidate, complain loudly that the party (that you've NEVER been a part of) isn't supporting you, mobilize disenfranchised voters against the leading candidate, and then walk away like nothing happened. Not when you're the nobody senator representing a meager 600,000 rural Americans in an inconsequential corner of the country. Play the game or you're going to fuck it up for everyone.
 

Makai

Member
You can't join a party after 40 years of actively running against it, take a shit all over the other candidate, complain loudly that the party (that you've NEVER been a part of) isn't supporting you, mobilize disenfranchised voters against the leading candidate, and then walk away like nothing happened. Not when you're the nobody senator representing a meager 600,000 rural Americans in an inconsequential corner of the country. Play the game or you're going to fuck it up for everyone.
Fighting words, right here.

And he caucuses with Democrats, so whatever.
 
I just checked internet for first time today expecting to see Sanders having dropped out and this sore loser is still pretending like he has a chance?
 
Is there a 20% threshold in NY for the Republicans? If so I think Trump takes all the delegates.
There is a 20% threshold, but most of the delegates are allocated per congressional district where Cruz/Kasich won't be shut out. Well unless Trump breaks 50% in most of the state.
 

Cerium

Member
There is a 20% threshold, but most of the delegates are allocated per congressional district where Cruz/Kasich won't be shut out. Well unless Trump breaks 50% in most of the state.

I think there is a good chance Trump breaks 50% in most of the state. Upstate LOVES Trump and NYC sure as hell isn't voting for Cruz.
 
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