The establishment is contemplating surrender to Trump.
Will the Republicans unify behind Trump before Sanders drops out?
Will the Republicans unify behind Trump before Sanders drops out?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Your link is more broken than the Republican party.
Fixed.
I guess if I want to be consistent in my opinions* then I have to argue that uniting behind Trump is the logical thing to do; take the political hit and just try to restrain him with the party machinery, especially since he does appear to have a modicum of moderate appeal they can wield.
*see also, the Labour party in the UK.
EDIT: Beaten by Tomtom, just like last night
I did not have sexual relations with that man
Logic is one thing, principle is another.
Oh who am I kidding, Republicans don't have principles.
I won't lie, I do have some reservations about the idea of Republicans quickly coalescing behind Trump, giving him the keys to the kingdom and all of their resources while Bernie continues to rail against Hillary all the way into the summer.
I don't foresee it happening given that you've currently got people willing to fall in line behind Cruz, the most hated man in the Republican party, to try and stop Trump. They're going to make him work for that majority.
Mrs. Manky
Banned
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Don't worry Republicans, Politico insiders have said that Kasich would be the best compromise candidate at the convention!
On what planet do they think that nominating a guy who won one state is going to be acceptable? I mean, they *might* be able to get Cruz to go along with it but I sincerely doubt that he would, and Trump is just going to go nuclear on them.
On what planet do they think that nominating a guy who won one state is going to be acceptable? I mean, they *might* be able to get Cruz to go along with it but I sincerely doubt that he would, and Trump is just going to go nuclear on them.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The same Politico insiders who said Rubio would waltz to the nomination?
Well in fairness, if the RNC blows the whole thing up and tells Trump to get out, they can pretty much do whatever they want, and they'd be fools for not picking Kasich. I could see it happening.
90s man
I think they will let Cruz have if they tell Trump to fuck off even though he won the most delegates (which I am pretty confident they will do in the end). Going to who got in second with Kasich as VP has slightly bette optics.
Everyone got off the Rubio train when he got fifth in NH.
Tell that to CNN. The media narrative of "if he wins Florida it's a game changer!!!!" was everywhere.
Fuck optics. After Trump, the GOP could not possibly have optics as bad as that.
The party hates Cruz. Kasich is the logical choice in a brokered convention. Either that or they pick RMoney or some other crazy thing. It could happen and it scares me.
Also in a three person race I'm terrified at the possibility of Paul Ryan picking the next President if the results are too close to define a winner. Oh my fucking god.
Nate had him with like 0.0% chance of winning Florida.
That only happens if no one wins a majority of electoral votes. If Trump runs third party (and he will assuming the party denies him the nomination) it will split the GOP vote and make it even easier for Hillary to win. Sort of like 1992 with Perot on steroids.
I have a hard time seeing him starting to get over 50% consistently which is what he will need to start doing to hit s clean majority.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
His national poll hit that last week.
As for the convention, if their plan really is to screw over Trump, I really think the republicans have to pick somebody who wasn't running at all. You can't take a guy who already lost this round to do it again. The voters will absolutely revolt. I'm fairly confident that if it happens, they'll pick Romney because he hasn't technically been rejected by the voters in 2016.
He doesn't need to though, most of the big remaining states have some form of winner takes all or winner takes most system.
Many of the remaining big states are WTA or wtm. He doesn't need 50%. He just needs kasich to keep siphoning votes away from Cruz.
He doesn't need 50% of the vote, just 50% of the delegates. Since a lot of GOP states use arcane allocation rules (not to mention the WTA states), that isn't insurmountable.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
That Romney (and McCain) couldn't beat Obama is a big part of why the base has turned to Trump at all. It would be a disaster to push Romney, the guy who finally made republican voters lose faith in their party's ability to trounce the liberals, onto them. Romney is a loser as far as the republicans are concerned. They're tired of losing. They've been dealing with democratic presidents for 16 of the last 24 years. They're flailing for some sort of hail mary and aren't going to run the same play that got them sacked four years ago.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Does the GOP leadership have any balls or what? I understand why they wouldn't fuck Trump ultimately. But in my eyes this like giving a spoiler brat exactly what it wants everytime and then it still growing up to be a selfish asshole.
You send the kid to bed and make him reflect on what he's done no matter how much crying and struggling the kid ultimately does. Because if they actually let the Trump campaign and his supporters take control. The establishment really seem to be letting the inmates take over the asylum completely and they stay in solitary confinement for a long time if not forever.
Am I looking at this wrong?
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Saw a classic Frank Luntz focus group segment on CBS this morning about voter dissatisfaction/anger, with a group of Florida voters who hated both Trump and Clinton.
One woman had voted Republican for the last 30 years and said she might not vote this year. Another explicitly complained about how he couldn't vote for the Republican this year. Another was a former Army captain who blamed Clinton and Obama for Benghazi. (He had to be prompted about Obama.) A fourth said he only wanted to see Trump in the White House on a guided tour and Clinton only if something something prison(?).
Then Rose or whoever on CBS asked Luntz if there was more dissatisfaction from Republicans or Democrats with their candidate and he said he would have guessed Republicans beforehand but was surprised at how easy it was to find a group of people who disliked them both.
*frysquint.gif*
Anyway, Frank Luntz focus group.
One woman had voted Republican for the last 30 years and said she might not vote this year. Another explicitly complained about how he couldn't vote for the Republican this year. Another was a former Army captain who blamed Clinton and Obama for Benghazi. (He had to be prompted about Obama.) A fourth said he only wanted to see Trump in the White House on a guided tour and Clinton only if something something prison(?).
Then Rose or whoever on CBS asked Luntz if there was more dissatisfaction from Republicans or Democrats with their candidate and he said he would have guessed Republicans beforehand but was surprised at how easy it was to find a group of people who disliked them both.
*frysquint.gif*
Anyway, Frank Luntz focus group.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It will be a disaster either way, but it would be less so with Romney because voters specifically haven't rejected him this time around. I'm sorry, but picking Cruz, the guy who won't have anywhere near Trump's delegates as the nomination is a colossal mistake waiting to happen.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
The spread right now is 15%. In order to close that gap, Bernie needs to consistently score 13% of the remaining delegates more than Hillary Clinton. That means on average winning 56.5 - 43.5. Does anyone really think he can pull those numbers?
Orbis Tabula
Member
I think the whole "Bernie is a hypocrite for wanting super delegates to help him now" claim is silly. I mean, maybe I'd have more sympathy for the argument if Clinton weren't also taking advantage of a tool that she thinks has an undemocratic effect on elections in order to win the election, and eventually destroy said tool. Both of them are smart enough to realize that you don't handicap yourself in an election out of principles. You play by the rules you need to in order to win.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Eh. I don't think its a terrible thing, but I do think its more incongruous with him specifically than you're saying. For one thing, has Clinton or her campaign ever mentioned relying on super-delegates to win?
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I think he's referring to SuperPACs re: Clinton.
I don't really care about Sanders trying to pull superdelegates because it's not going to work, so have at it I guess.
shinra-bansho
Member
If he wants to have Devine and Weaver push this dumb argument that they're going to flip Supers, more power to him. But he shouldn't be pushing it himself, because it's just a stupid stupid argument.
They aren't going to flip. She has the popular vote. She has the pledged delegates. She has key voting blocs. But even setting all that aside, part of her getting these endorsements is that she's been working for decade upon decade.
He's still railing against the establishment while now publicly courting them.
It looks really dumb.
They aren't going to flip. She has the popular vote. She has the pledged delegates. She has key voting blocs. But even setting all that aside, part of her getting these endorsements is that she's been working for decade upon decade.
He's still railing against the establishment while now publicly courting them.
It looks really dumb.
Zing!
Sanders isn't nearly as smart as he makes himself out to be. This is just the latest example. He's nearly the left wing equivalent of a tea party guy.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Yeah, sorry. Deleted and rewrote half my post and accidentally forgot to put back in the important bit. I was talking about SuperPACs. Clinton is happy to use them while also wanting to reverse Citizens United. I'm just as okay with that as I am with Bernie wanting to get rid of Super delegates while also courting them.
But yeah, he also doesnt stand a chance at swinging them so it's a wash.
Poodlestrike
Banned
God that "If not Sanders then nobody" thread is making me so fucking angry.
I should probably stop going in before I say something even crazier than I already have.
I should probably stop going in before I say something even crazier than I already have.
I literally haven't even clicked to read the first page because I know I was gonna see people posting dumb shit.
It's useful for working out which posters have the maturity of a 12 year old.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
It's pointless to argue about that stuff now, or possibly ever. It literally doesn't matter what anyone's saying right now about whether they'll vote for Clinton in November--they'll either come around after passions cool or they were never gonna vote for her or at all anyway. And most will.
Source: 2008
Source: 2008
But her SuperPAC has spent pennies compared to what Bernie is tossing around, so I'm not sure if "SuperPAC" is an effective argument against "I think we can use superdelegates to win over a pledged delegate lead".
I also think Sanders making the argument superdelegates are a necessary evil to gaining office and eliminating their influence completely destroys his line of attack v Clinton regarding Super PAC money.
Seriously whoever told him the candidate to get out there and make those arguments himself did him no favours.
Seriously whoever told him the candidate to get out there and make those arguments himself did him no favours.
Chaos2Frozen
Member
Holy shit I remember this!
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