Wisconsin should be a 10% Sanders victory, based on how he performed in Minnesota and Michigan's Upper Peninsula. And well, it's Wisconsin.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The bigger concern is Trump leading and them giving the nomination to Cruz.
gutter_trash
Banned
too much lactose
Black Mamba
Member
So, do the Dems have a realistic shot at the House this year? Does Trump do it for them?
I am in no way going to start believing the House is a lock or definitely a super good chance of the Dems taking it until summer time and polling starts to show the potential.
Had you asked me last year, I'd have said the Dems have a good shot at the Senate but no chance at the House.
But between Trump, GOP implosion, and the SCOTUS opening, if things pretty much stay as they are, I think they House has to be moved from "no chance" to "possible" now.
I'm not going to get too optimistic because the GOP may show up and either come home or at least vote down ballot if skipping Trump. There's no real accurate polling to go by. But my gut reaction is right now there's a chance and we'll see how things go.
If Trump's numbers come Sept are like in the high 30s and the non-Trumps get totally depressed, then I can move into giddy mode.
And OMG if Hillary gets 2 free years, essentially. Seriously just nuke the filibuster and really do the work that needs to be done. Min wage, tax reform, ACA adjustments, VRA fix, infrastructure spending, etc. I want to be giddy so badly.
I am in no way going to start believing the House is a lock or definitely a super good chance of the Dems taking it until summer time and polling starts to show the potential.
Had you asked me last year, I'd have said the Dems have a good shot at the Senate but no chance at the House.
But between Trump, GOP implosion, and the SCOTUS opening, if things pretty much stay as they are, I think they House has to be moved from "no chance" to "possible" now.
I'm not going to get too optimistic because the GOP may show up and either come home or at least vote down ballot if skipping Trump. There's no real accurate polling to go by. But my gut reaction is right now there's a chance and we'll see how things go.
If Trump's numbers come Sept are like in the high 30s and the non-Trumps get totally depressed, then I can move into giddy mode.
And OMG if Hillary gets 2 free years, essentially. Seriously just nuke the filibuster and really do the work that needs to be done. Min wage, tax reform, ACA adjustments, VRA fix, infrastructure spending, etc. I want to be giddy so badly.
Dominican Power
Member
Rachel Maddow has mentioned the financial disaster that Bobby Jindal has left the state of Louisiana in and also the mess in Kansas. And she brought a lot of attention to the crisis in Flint.
Macho Madness
Member
For every state Bernie doesn't win by 15% or more, he falls further behind in his path to the nomination. If you find someone denying he has an extremely narrow path to the nomination, tell them that.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Primary vs. caucus.
Although if as mentioned Bernie did well in UP Michigan that probably portends to a big win, I just wouldn't call it a lock yet.
Black Mamba
Member
Certainly. But who watches MSNBC?
I mean not only say CNN, but CBS, ABC, NBC News. Local affiliates. Print and radio. Etc.
There's articles online, as the one I posted, as well. This isn't enough. When that airplane went down, it was everywhere. Shit, Making of a Murderer was a national discussion. People who never watched knew about it! Things like Kansas need to be more prevalent.
Their new plan is to render Hillary nonviable in places like Washington (aka less then 15% of the vote) and run up the margins in CA.
I am not joking
Macho Madness
Member
Dominican Power
Member
Well, Republican ran states becoming failures is becoming a trend.
It's astounding how much misinformation is rolling around the internet amongst people my age (late twenties.)
Things I've had to explain to my room mate since the election season began:
-Delegates.
-Superdelegates.
-That Clinton was a minor during the Goldwater campaign (he reported to me that images talking about her being a Goldwater Girl showed a photograph from when she was in college.)
-Voting record shit.
There's probably more I haven't thought of, but Facebook is a creeping cancer of falsehoods is my point.
I'm finding it even more hilarious that they think they can put her under the number needed to get delebgates when they couldn't even do that in Vermont. His biggest margin of victory.
Black Mamba
Member
Don't worry, what will happen is Bernie will get enough write-in votes in the general election against Hillary and Trump to win enough states to cause the House to vote for President, in which case Paul Ryan, hearing the will of the people, will ensure Bernie is President with Trump as his VP.
I am still predicting a Trump/Cruz ticket. That would be more or less impossible to dislodge at the convention -- between the two they have 70% of the delegates.
The best part about that Politico article that somebody posted earlier is the part about how multiple senators are trying to endorse Ted Cruz but he won't take their phone calls.
I think he's actually genuinely hurt by how much the other Republicans hate him on a personal level.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Most Republicans would probably vote for them, but the degree to which it would lose independents would be awesome to watch.
User 463088
Banned
One makes me want to puke, the other makes me want to hurl.....
Non viable in Washington is just a lovely idea. I mean come on. He barely kept her under the 15% threshold in Vermont!
Voysa Reezun
Banned
What a bizarre ticket that would be. I would love to see the conservatives who think Cruz is wholesome and honest and that Trump is the devil do the mental gymnastics to process such a ticket.
Macho Madness
Member
She netted no pledged delegates from Vermont. Just supers.
That's a little optimistic don't you think? I mean the American people are stupid, but we aren't that stupid.
QuiteWhittle
Member
I'm of two minds about that ticket:
1. Would ensure that Trump won't sidestep to the center, if there was any danger of that actually happening.
2. Cruz would actually provide some decent organization and donors to the Trump ticket.
So I'll say 2012 + maybe NC.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Here's the Democrats' most likely path to a House majority, courtesy of a DKE comment. His ratings, not mine:
Tier 1 (Lean D) - 8 seats:
FL-10 (Open) D+8
FL-13 (Open) D+3
FL-26 (Curbelo) D+3
IA-1 (Blum) D+5
NH-1 (Guinta) R+1
NV-4 (Hardy) D+4
TX-23 (Hurd) R+3
VA-4 (Open) D+9
Tier 2 (tossup) - 10 seats:
IL-10 (Dold) D+8
ME-2 (Poliquin) D+2
MI-1 (Open) R+5
MN-2 (Open) R+2
NY-1 (Zeldin) R+2
NY-19 (Open) D+1
NY-21 (Open) EVEN
NY-22 (Open) R+3
NY-24 (Katko) D+5
NV-3 (Open) EVEN
Tier 3 (Lean R) - 10 seats
AZ-2 (McSally) R+3
CA-21 (Valadao) D+2
CO-6 (Coffman) D+1
FL-7 (Mica) R+2
IA-3 (Young) EVEN
MI-7 (Walberg) R+3
NJ-5 (Garrett) R+4
UT-4 (Love) R+16
VA-10 (Comstock) R+3
WI-8 (Open) R+2
Tier 4 (Likely/Safe R) - 11 (need 3 for 218)
CA-10 (Denham) R+1
CA-25 (Knight) R+3
MI-8 (Bishop) R+2
MN-3 (Paulsen) R+2
MT-AL (Zinke) R+7
NM-2 (Pearce) R+5
NY-23 (Reed) R+3
PA-6 (Costello) R+2
PA-7 (Meehan) R+2
VA-2 (Open) R+3
WV-2 (Mooney) R+11
I imagine with a Trump nominee we'd be favored through most of the first two tiers.
Macho Madness
Member
First GOP senator calls for vote on Garland court nomination
"Please re-elect me. I wanted to vote on Obama's nominee. I really did. PLEASE!!!"
"Please re-elect me. I wanted to vote on Obama's nominee. I really did. PLEASE!!!"
So it begins.
Going to be fun watching the GOP try and maintain some semblance of control over this.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Mark Kirk probably got permission from McConnell before he said this. Vote still unlikely before the (actual) lame duck period of Obama's presidency.
I can't wait for the Republican candidate to get wrecked in November, then hear Republicans say to themselves, "Shit guys, we weren't conservative enough again!"
LOL every single response is crapping on Mitt.
LOL every single response is crapping on Mitt.
User 463088
Banned
Hillary just confirmed 1 million donors.
The Librarian
Banned
how about a woman
thezerofire
Banned
GOP taking a literal national L
Macho Madness
Member
Kasich flat out denies he'd be on the same ticket as Trump. "Under no circumstances. Zero. No chance." is what he says in the preview for the interview with Matthews tonight.
Which, I mean of course he can always pull back later but that would sure play well if he did end up Trump's VP pick. The opposition would love to run ads about that.
Which, I mean of course he can always pull back later but that would sure play well if he did end up Trump's VP pick. The opposition would love to run ads about that.
Hillary will not do that.
QuiteWhittle
Member
I'm fine with Perez or Kaine or Booker or Brown or Hickenlooper or whatever other names I'm hearing(other than Castro pls no) but I would love a Clinton/Klobuchar ticket.
Hillary/Obama 2016
NYCmetsfan
Banned
You and Me both dude
Basileus777
Member
He's not going to be Trump's VP, I don't know why anyone thinks it would make sense for Kasich to do that.
Macho Madness
Member
Some people think it's a good Ohio strategy.
Basileus777
Member
That's not the issue. Why would Kasich tarnish his image to sign onto a losing ticket?
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