theprodigy
Member
Yeah, it's 58%, not 65%, where the hell did you even pull that from.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
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Yeah, it's 58%, not 65%, where the hell did you even pull that from.
User 463088
Banned
There are 2020 Delegates left. Bernie has 856. He needs 1527 more to win. That would require him to win 75% of all remaining pledged Delegates. If you just want to give him a majority of pledged delegates, then 58-60% would give him that.
Hillary won the big blue States last time and it wasn't enough to keep the supers and gain more. There is no realistic path to the nomination for Bernie. If Hillary manages 45% in every remaining state, she'll have more pledged delegates than Bernie.
Basileus777
Member
Bernie has no shot of even winning a majority of the remaining delegates, so it doesn't really matter.
The onion article on Reddit mathematicians is a fake btw, here is the original
http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-statisticians-develop-new-branch-math-formulat-52463
The funny part is the faker put the year as 2015 instead of 2016.
http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-statisticians-develop-new-branch-math-formulat-52463
The funny part is the faker put the year as 2015 instead of 2016.
I was super big into Ron Paul as well, especially in high school. I was pretty libertarian at the time.
2008 was my first election (was 19), ended up voting for Obama because I realized you kinda had to pick him or McCain. I'm happy that I voted, but I'm 99% sure I skipped on the midterm elections in 2010 which was a huge mistake. At least I did vote again in 2012 and 2014.
She's in good hands. Obama can still make a damn good speech.
Eh, I think Obama withdraws the nomination if it really goes that long without being approved, so not a big issue that he said that imo
The GOP was in "lets not offend latinos" mode especially with how qualified she was, no one else on that bench had as much casework behind them during their nominations.
I think the nomination stays if Dems don't take back the Senate and there's a 50/50 chance it's withdrawn if Dems do take the Senate.
I think a withdrawal is less likely for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the messaging and optics of hammering Republicans in the Senate for not acting on it and then refusing to have anyone named for the nomination in the remaining days of the Obama term.
RastaMentality
Banned
If Garland's that left (if the charts are to be believed) then how could anyone be upset?
Really masterful pick on Obama's part then.
If I recall at least the third chart is a graph of the person doing the nominating, not the nominee.
Edit: Not sure. Will look into it. Saw it mentioned in the Garland thread.
Edit2: Yeah found the post. Can't seem to find NYT article though. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=198479263&postcount=402
User 463088
Banned
We all know why.
sigh.There's a part of me that hopes Trump loses and goes through on his threat to attempt a violent revolution, if only so anyone dumb enough to think that would actually work can be neatly killed off.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah the thing about him being super moderate/centrist just seems to be one of those things that gets repeated a lot until everyone just assumes it's true. Even by the most conservative estimate of those three Garland would represent a huge swing left. And I don't mean that in the sense of like "well even a Kennedy clone would swing it left" except not really because when is he ever in the minority.Who would even be better? Most measures I've seen show him as not very moderate.
Garland as the "swing vote" might side with conservatives on a handful of criminal justice issues and with the liberals on everything else. Sounds good to me.
He's probably more contentious from a process standpoint than a policy standpoint. He's 63. It's kind of a wasted opportunity even assuming he lives to be 80.
I'm sure he's also a corporatist and "tough on crime" (just like Obama), which makes him a NEOLIBERAL
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Those are all extremely subjective charts that don't really say much without knowledge of their selection and weighing process. For instance, I'm guessing that "potential nominee" chart is looking at moderate and uncontroversial judges because that's who should be looked at for this particular scenario, but the potential moves a lot further left after the voter mandate republicans are supposedly waiting for.
Garland is a great pick for this situation, but in a situation where liberals hold the presidency and senate, they should want someone younger, further to the left in criminal law, and more confident in creating new precedent and interpretation of the law.
*backing out slowly . . .* Seriously guys, why the hell even go to that place?!?!
Just the schadenfreude involved in having to see how Trump's ego even processes a GE loss on the evening of it happening is enough to make me giddy. I still say he refuses to give a concession speech or speak at all, though the possibility of him throwing some insane, rhetorical diarrhea-of-the-mouth over the national airwaves even worse than his current talk wouldn't surprise me.
User 463088
Banned
They're playing "Y'all Ready for This" to introduce Trump. Fuck my life.
Tarkus
Member
INSANITY
Kinda dark yo.
User 463088
Banned
They pulled an SUV right up behind Trump with the doors open ready to throw him in.... This is insane.
What the fuck is going on?
User 463088
Banned
JHoNNy1OoO
Member
You gotta wonder if that was planned by CNN. Literally seconds before Trump starts with his BS about "I wish the media would show the crowds we have here.". CNN had zoomed out to show the entire area from on top of a building.
edit: glad someone else noticed
edit: glad someone else noticed
BoboBrazil
Member
They secret service were pointing at something too and looked worried for a second.
gutter_trash
Banned
I know, and it's small crowd too LOL
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Secret service has done a fantastic job protecting Obama, so I believe in their ability to protect Trump too.
Tarkus
Member
It's actually a huge crowd. There is a swathe behind the crowd around the stage.
I know. I just have a bad feeling for some reason.
BoboBrazil
Member
There would be more there if the road wasn't blocked.
User 463088
Banned
Why do I fucking watch this shit?
I don't know, but we're sitting here roaring with laughter at this. Just one ridiculous thing after another, like a male Palin is up there riffing for us.
I guess I should feel bad about laughing at a monster, but I can't help it.
User 463088
Banned
Kyle texted me and was like "Fuck this guy. Fuck him" Someone in his training class drove like 15 hours to go to this thing today. Ugh. My mom's opened the wine and is pretty much just cussing out everyone on that stage.
Macho Madness
Member
Please proceed governor
User 463088
Banned
I'm not going to eat Oreos any more, I guaran---Here's what's going to happen folks......
Hahahaha, "Fuck Arizona, build it anywhere, not among you shit stains."
Hahahaha, "Fuck Arizona, build it anywhere, not among you shit stains."
Coriolanus
Banned
.
Because truth doesn't matter to his supporters - they hear what they want to hear ('media is bad') - and Trump plays them like a fiddle.
Macho Madness
Member
Trump's support is primarily attidunal and personality. It's shallow but tough to break.
Black Republican
Member
waiting 4-5 hours for a 30-45min trump rally truly is dedication
User 463088
Banned
So you get ready for this, mind your own biz
'Cause I am bad, yeah the microphone wiz
No need to sit, 'cause we're 2 Unlimited
Ready, ready, ready for this
Feel the base, you just get closer
Be impressed by the words I chose of
Once again kickin' it live
Doin' everything yo just to survive
Above the law, I take our stand
Being on stage with a mic in my hand
Bustin' it loud to the crowd
The age is 20, I'm from the south
'Cause I am bad, yeah the microphone wiz
No need to sit, 'cause we're 2 Unlimited
Ready, ready, ready for this
Feel the base, you just get closer
Be impressed by the words I chose of
Once again kickin' it live
Doin' everything yo just to survive
Above the law, I take our stand
Being on stage with a mic in my hand
Bustin' it loud to the crowd
The age is 20, I'm from the south
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