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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
UltimaPooh said:
Whoa whoa here.

Are you telling me Bernie Sanders supporters only have one person named Bernie Sanders in the US government? Get out of here. I figured they would have tons of Bernie Sanderses at this point.
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Basileus777 said:
Not really. I see comments like this and wonder if people have never seen a Presidential primary before.
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Basileus777 said:
Bernie Sanders is not the first candidate to be liked by young voters that don't create a lasting movement. There's not much meaningful similarity with the Tea Party here. That comparison is pretty lazy.
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Now that i'm back home I can type out what my thinking is.

Sander's supporters are similar to both Ron Paul Supporters and Teapartiers in that;

1.) They both have an ideological purity. It's my way or the highway.
2.) They are both in contrast to typical politics, by being extreme in either direction (Libertarian, Far Right, and Democratic Socialist).
3.) They are "anti-establishment" (Ron Paul supporters are a bit weird in this regard).

They differ in that Sander's "party" so to speak, is vastly younger than the Tea Party and better educated, although they are both mostly white. (although Sanders Supporters and Ron Paul Supporters are similar in that they are educated whites). It also remains to be seen if a "party", and this is a significant point, will arise from the primary. Sanders has, up till this point, not talked much, if any, about electing candidates on his platform. If this holds, then I suspect that it will take someone of note to organize his supporters into making a platform that is more than a candidate. The tea party was a sustained organization over more than one election, and in many ways culminated in Trump. Where the liberal version started with Sanders, so the question is will it propagate in the other direction?

At this point I think it's probable that the "party" will not end up being one, and will fade into obscurity as it's less grass-roots and more cult of personality.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
sbrTfFg.png
 
H

Holmes

Member
BoboBrazil said:
Nooooo, Trump needs to keep Cruz under 50% so it isn't winner take all.
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It's fine. Trump was never expected to win any delegates from Utah. He just needs to win Arizona on Tuesday. The big fight coming up is Wisconsin. If he wins there, he very likely has the nomination on lock because after Wisconsin, he'll sweep New York (and if he wins by a 30-40% margin, he should take almost all of the 95 delegates), Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and maybe Maryland. He should be then favored in Indiana and West Virginia, will lose Nebraska, and Oregon and Washington are proportional so he'll get delegates either way, and then it's up to New Jersey, California and New Mexico to put him over the halfway point on June 7.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
You know, my post kinda looks so lame next to that map.
 
C

Clefargle

Member
The Lamonster said:
sbrTfFg.png
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Hilarious for two reasons.

1. Hilarious because Bernie chose to run with the DNC because without it he would never have garnered the numbers he needed as an independent.

2. They are essentially saying Bernie should act like trump and threaten/go third party.

Ideological purity is a hellova drug
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Holmes said:
It's fine. Trump was never expected to win any delegates from Utah. He just needs to win Arizona on Tuesday. The big fight coming up is Wisconsin. If he wins there, he very likely has the nomination on lock because after Wisconsin, he'll sweep New York (and if he wins by a 30-40% margin, he should take almost all of the 95 delegates), Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and maybe Maryland. He should be then favored in Indiana and West Virginia, will lose Nebraska, and Oregon and Washington are proportional so he'll get delegates either way, and then it's up to New Jersey, California and New Mexico to put him over the halfway point on June 7.
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Indiana, Wisconsin, and Maryland are probably the WTA/WTM states Cruz has the best chances in outside of the plains states. West Virginia and New Jersey are guaranteed to go for Trump. This may very likely come down to how many delegates Trump can squeeze out of California.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I mean....is there some type of method to that, or is it just coloring in states like we're in preschool or something?

I....I don't even get it. Is there a method or is it just madness?
 
H

Holmes

Member
Basileus777 said:
Indiana, Wisconsin, and Maryland are probably the WTA/WTM states Cruz has the best chances in outside of the plains states. West Virginia and New Jersey are guaranteed to go for Trump. This may very likely come down to how many delegates Trump can squeeze out of California.
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Definitely, that's why I think Wisconsin will be a hard fought battle between Trump and Cruz, but if Trump can take it, I think he'd be favored in Indiana too. Trump did very well in Chicagoland and downstate Illinois, save for central Illinois, and wasn't blown out of the water in the Ohio counties bordering Illinois like the more central Ohio counties. It's just too bad we need to wait so long for these primaries.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Holmes said:
Definitely, that's why I think Wisconsin will be a hard fought battle between Trump and Cruz, but if Trump can take it, I think he'd be favored in Indiana too. Trump did very well in Chicagoland and downstate Illinois, save for central Illinois, and wasn't blow out of the water in the Ohio counties bordering Illinois like the more central Ohio counties. It's just too bad we need to wait so long for these primaries.
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I really wonder how an impending contested convention would affect voting in these really late primaries. Will a number of Republican voters be scared to vote in a way that will be guaranteed to lead to chaos in Cleveland? Can Trump sell that a vote against him is a vote for a split party or a Romney candidacy?
 
B

Basileus777

Member
From that Merrill Poll of Arizona that showed a close Senate race:

The poll found that Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton are in a dead heat with 38 percent of the vote each, while 9 percent said they would vote for neither candidate and 15 percent were undecided. A head-to-head matchup between Clinton and Ted Cruz also resulted in a statiscal dead heat, with 41 percent for Cruz and 35 percent for Clinton. In that matchup, 10 percent said neither and 14 percent were undecided.
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Dead heat!
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Indiana should be good for Hillary considering OH but Macho Madness is more knowledgeable on that.
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Hard to predict because Indiana's economy is good right now.

It's pretty racist, so I think Trump country for GOP.

There's plenty of universities too, which tends to favor Sanders. The wildcard is Indianapolis and the greater Chicago area. Reminder that Clinton won it by a small margin last time.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Basileus777 said:
I really wonder how an impending contested convention would affect voting in these really late primaries. Will a number of Republican voters be scared to vote in a way that will be guaranteed to lead to chaos in Cleveland? Can Trump sell that a vote against him is a vote for a split party or a Romney candidacy?
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I don't think fear of an impending contested convention would do much for future primary voters. There's just too many potential scenarios that can happen in such a scenario, so if the candidates' pitches are just "vote for me, or this will happen at the convention!", it might get too convoluted that voters will just say "fuck it" and vote for how they were going to vote anyway.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Holmes said:
I don't think fear of an impending contested convention would do much for future primary voters. There's just too many potential scenarios that can happen in such a scenario, so if the candidates' pitches are just "vote for me, or this will happen at the convention!", it might get too convoluted that voters will just say "fuck it" and vote for how they were going to vote anyway.
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I was thinking more that the uncertainty itself around the prospect of a contested convention could deter voters from voting against Trump. There will be a number of Republicans that don't prefer Trump, but would take him if the alternative was splitting the party. It's not likely to matter now, but in June?
 
M

Makai

Member
Rubenov said:
Interesting... value for you is a higher payout? But higher payout comes with significantly higher risk. I prefer to be the house and sell hopes and dreams.
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I buy if I think something is undervalued, even if I don't think it will happen.

e.g. I think Trump is going to be the nominee but I would buy NO if he was at 99
 
H

Holmes

Member
Jesus, I didn't know that Washington Post/ABC News poll had Clinton up 15% among college-educated whites. If that holds, it'll be more than a 9% win in November for Clinton.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
So, I love House of Cards. I don't care if it goes to shit, I'm still hooked. Also, Pizza Hut has Jim Beam Bourbon BBQ wings...that, for some reason, taste nothing like Jim Beam, bourbon, or BBQ. (They taste like coconut....)
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
My goodness.. it's only March and we're already seeing new statistical terms being invented.

I'm already looking forward to the explanations that Trumpeteers will have for the polls in October.
 
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