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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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B

Basileus777

Member
One Way Jeb Bush Copied Donald Trump In His Campaign’s Last Days
WASHINGTON — In the final days of his doomed presidential bid, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) loaned his campaign more than $400,000 to keep it afloat.

The revelation of Bush’s self-financing comes from the Federal Election Commission report covering the final month of his campaign. Bush dropped out of the Republican presidential primary on Feb. 20 after failing to finish better than fourth place in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina.
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Poor Jeb.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
It's not a good idea to distance oneself from a president whose approval rating rarely dipped much below 60% in his entire second term. Gore was somewhat spooked by Clinton's personal favorability ratings, but it's hard to ignore the advantages of running as something of the continuation of a very popular administration.
 
A

ampere

Member
Fox318 said:
In what universe does Hilary lose Ny to Bernie?
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The universe with "retroactive momentum". It's a powerful force we just can't understand

Diablos said:
Gore is an idiot politician, even bigger than I had thought when I was younger.

He definitely deserves credit for making his mark when it comes to climate change; it was probably the smartest thing he could have done after losing the election.

The irony is that he distanced himself from Clinton because of the Lewinsky scandal and then all these years later got a divorce with his wife. I believe there was some cheating going on.
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I doubt he distanced himself for moral reasons, he probably thought it was politically the better move, but obviously it wasn't in hindsight. I was really young at the time (11) so I don't have a great picture of the campaign as it occured
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Makai said:
So Benji, if they do manage to wrest the nomination from Trump or they run Jeb Bush as a third party against him...

Whigs 2.0?
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The Whigs splintered over slavery only really. The Republicans were basically the abolitionist wing of the Whig Party plus the Know Nothings and Liberty Party.

After the slavery issue was "solved" the Whigs either had literally died or were absorbed into the GOP.

On everything else pretty much, the new Republicans agreed with the dead/dying Whigs.

This splintering would be more like 1872 or 1912. Temporary with everyone being one big happy family again in four years.

There are too many institutional and legal blockades in the way, that's why they're flirting with invading the Constitution Party of all things rather than an independent bid or new party. It has ballot status in enough states to win the Presidency. They can transplant their apparatus into it, and then bolt after the election.

A bunch of people would flock to the Constitution Party in 2020 like Buchanan, Hagelin, Trump and others descended on the Reform Party (and it's $15 million in federal funding plus ballot status) in 2000, but after it falls back to its irrelevancy nobody will care about it anymore. They'll have gone back to the GOP.

Remember, Bloomberg had had a time table mapped out by staff for him and was willing to hypothetically spend a billion dollars of his own money. They told him the campaign had to be ready by the end of this month.

May is the drop-dead date for any independent bid.

Pissing off Trump supporters hurts you more down ballot than simply dealing with it and ignoring him. Same thing regarding Sanders, and Hillary in 2008.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
So benjipwns, what do you do for a living? And if it's not Political historian, why is that?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Abinash117 said:
It does seems like Hillary supporters does seem less enthusiastic, but I say that it really does seem like her voters aren't the ones that are visible on the internet as in some places the internet is dominated by young people and they seem to lean towards Sanders. But it is surprising to me that is some cases the young vote isn't as high to overcome Hillary in many states. I think Hillary has enthusiasm from supporters, but they aren't as passionate about it in the same way as Bernie's .
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I think "enthusiasm" is a hard thing to quantify. Bernie's people are a lot louder, ya. Plus, if you spend a good amount of time online or with people between the ages of 18-25, you're probably hearing more about Bernie than the rest combined.

However, enthusiasm is, in part, getting your people to the polls. Something Hillary's people have been pretty damn good at. The people that I volunteer with are excited. But these are people that have done the shit work of party building for decades. Kyle's mom has been involved in every election since Carter, I think. These are the people that do the grunt work without posting on Reddit how awesome they are for making fifteen calls and randomly sending 50 people on Facebook a message about voting for Bernie. (And, for the record, I'm not shitting on the people who have volunteered for Bernie. Some of that stuff is just impressive as hell to me, even if I think they're chosen candidate isn't the best.)

Then you have weirdos like me who are probably as bad as 99% of the people on /r/S4P, but still...

Let's not forget that Hillary has more votes than any other candidate, including Bernie. (He's not even in 2nd). So, Bernie's people have to be enthusiastic because, at this point, that's pretty much what he's got.
 
U

User 406

Banned
lenovox1 said:
Bill Clinton did the Family Circle's First Lady cookie contest in 2008, and submitted a basic ass oatmeal cookie recipe. And I mean basic.

http://www.familycircle.com/recipe/cookies/bill-clintons-oatmeal-cookies/

I, mean, I know the man is a vegan, but damn.
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adam387 said:
He couldn't even eat those since they have egg in them. What a sad recipe. I mean, I hate the stereotype anyway that spouses have to be some type of domestic goddess...but come on, Bill. Get someone with some shit to make a good vegan, gluten free cookie.
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Fuckin' foodies, always acting like they're better than thousands of years of good cooking. You wanna know why every oatmeal cookie recipe looks like that? Because it's the best fucking cookie, that's why. A batch of those and a tall glass of cold milk is pure bliss. Now I want to make a batch. I put chocolate chips in mine, oooo look at me I'm a special god damn snowflake with a secret recipe so I can look down my nose at the proven part that makes it work.


Abinash117 said:
It does seems like Hillary supporters does seem less enthusiastic, but I say that it really does seem like her voters aren't the ones that are visible on the internet as in some places the internet is dominated by young people and they seem to lean towards Sanders. But it is surprising to me that is some cases the young vote isn't as high to overcome Hillary in many states. I think Hillary has enthusiasm from supporters, but they aren't as passionate about it in the same way as Bernie's .
Click to expand...

When your metric for passion is measured in tweets and reddit posts per minute, sure.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Sea Manky said:
Fuckin' foodies, always acting like they're better than thousands of years of good cooking. You wanna know why every oatmeal cookie recipe looks like that? Because it's the best fucking cookie, that's why. A batch of those and a tall glass of cold milk is pure bliss. Now I want to make a batch. I put chocolate chips in mine, oooo look at me I'm a special god damn snowflake with a secret recipe so I can look down my nose at the proven part that makes it work.




When your metric for passion is measured in tweets and reddit posts per minute, sure.
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You know what's the shit? Turn your oatmeal cookies into Mountain Man cookies. Chocolate chips, raisins, some chopped nuts...maybe some cranberries. Hells ya.

I'm supposed to be on a gluten free diet because of my migraines. I made it 3 months and ate all the bread I could find.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
PollyVote has updated their model:

jwAYAbb.png


Anti-Trump forces in the GOP:

panic-2.jpg
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Suikoguy said:
So benjipwns, what do you do for a living? And if it's not Political historian, why is that?
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Because political historian isn't really a thing in academia anymore. Though I suppose I could just hook onto a think tank/institute or write books/articles for popular consumption like plenty of other people. I talked to Mackinac a few years ago and I like Midland.

Though I don't know how to teach Intro without it being heavier on the history, I consider it a disservice. Especially if it's already in the textbook. Methods isn't really the place for it, even if it is the place for the occasional Documentary on George Washington.

Somebody with actual clout already has a lock on the single political theory course. I don't have the degree to create my own courses. (Or know anyone who would want to take responsibility for one. I think. Never asked actually.)

Avon Barksdale said:
Scott "Charles in Charge" Baio endorsed Trump. How soon before Willie "Bibleman" Aames backs Cruz?
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Baio had endorsed Walker before he dropped out...
 
S

Snowman Prophet of Doom

Member
I think I'm going to predict right now that Ted Cruz is going to be the nominee in 2020. Bush and Rubio are damaged goods, Brownback and Jindal will never be able to live down what they did to their states, Walker may be leading Wisconsin down a similar path to the previous two, and nobody else has much of a national political profile right now because Trump absolutely decimated the "deep Republican bench". Ted Cruz has been the nexus of the anti-Obama movement for as long as he's been in the national political spotlight, he retains credibility with evangelicals and movement conservatives, he's by far the best-organized candidate in either race right now, he has a few very rich backers who really believe in him, and he'll be able to walk into 2020 as the guy who went toe-to-toe with Donald Trump, never backed down, embarrassed him on policy knowledge, and correctly predicted that he would be crushed by Hillary Clinton while still holding onto his anti-establishment clout by not having a single goddamn friend in Washington, D.C. Trump is going to be the beginning of the end for the GOP in its current incarnation, but I think they have one last gasp in them, one last grasping for electoral relevance as they decide that the real trick is nominating a "true" conservative after compromising Blue Staters like Romney and Trump failed to get the job done. Then Cruz will get crushed once again by the strong Obama coalition, and Republicans will finally be in a place where they'll be ready to start realigning, paving the way for a GOP Bill Clinton by 2032 or so.
 
M

Mrs. Manky

Banned
Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
I think I'm going to predict right now that Ted Cruz is going to be the nominee in 2020. Bush and Rubio are damaged goods, Brownback and Jindal will never be able to live down what they did to their states, Walker may be leading Wisconsin down a similar path to the previous two, and nobody else has much of a national political profile right now because Trump absolutely decimated the "deep Republican bench". Ted Cruz has been the nexus of the anti-Obama movement for as long as he's been in the national political spotlight, he retains credibility with evangelicals and movement conservatives, he's by far the best-organized candidate in either race right now, he has a few very rich backers who really believe in him, and he'll be able to walk into 2020 as the guy who went toe-to-toe with Donald Trump, never backed down, embarrassed him on policy knowledge, and correctly predicted that he would be crushed by Hillary Clinton while still holding onto his anti-establishment clout by not having a single goddamn friend in Washington, D.C. Trump is going to be the beginning of the end for the GOP in its current incarnation, but I think they have one last gasp in them, one last grasping for electoral relevance as they decide that the real trick is nominating a "true" conservative after compromising Blue Staters like Romney and Trump failed to get the job done. Then Cruz will get crushed once again by the strong Obama coalition, and Republicans will finally be in a place where they'll be ready to start realigning, paving the way for a GOP Bill Clinton by 2032 or so.
Click to expand...


How about Nikki Haley? Aside from Confederate battle flag fans, she hasn't really pissed off Republicans. And Carly Fiorina might have another go, since abortion will still be an issue. I'm sure there may be some unexpected person who'll toss their hat in the ring for shits and giggles. But I think you're right that Cruz will make a go of it in 2020.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
I think I'm going to predict right now that Ted Cruz is going to be the nominee in 2020. Bush and Rubio are damaged goods, Brownback and Jindal will never be able to live down what they did to their states, Walker may be leading Wisconsin down a similar path to the previous two, and nobody else has much of a national political profile right now because Trump absolutely decimated the "deep Republican bench". Ted Cruz has been the nexus of the anti-Obama movement for as long as he's been in the national political spotlight, he retains credibility with evangelicals and movement conservatives, he's by far the best-organized candidate in either race right now, he has a few very rich backers who really believe in him, and he'll be able to walk into 2020 as the guy who went toe-to-toe with Donald Trump, never backed down, embarrassed him on policy knowledge, and correctly predicted that he would be crushed by Hillary Clinton while still holding onto his anti-establishment clout by not having a single goddamn friend in Washington, D.C. Trump is going to be the beginning of the end for the GOP in its current incarnation, but I think they have one last gasp in them, one last grasping for electoral relevance as they decide that the real trick is nominating a "true" conservative after compromising Blue Staters like Romney and Trump failed to get the job done. Then Cruz will get crushed once again by the strong Obama coalition, and Republicans will finally be in a place where they'll be ready to start realigning, paving the way for a GOP Bill Clinton by 2032 or so.
Click to expand...

Cruz is going to have to contend with a a GOP that will likely further tweak its rules and primary schedule to prevent him from winning it, and an establishment that will be ready to hammer him early to prevent what happened with Trump. Cruz is vulnerable as the way his favorables plummeted earlier in the cycle after being attacked shows. A primary where he is enemy #1 and is attacked from all sides is not something I see him surviving. Cruz will also have the same problem he has now of being regionally limited.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Walker and Rand will probably run again. Nikki Haley and Tim Scott out of SC. Tom Cotton, John Thune.

Rubio's people are already planning a 2020 bid. Christie's too supposedly.

Justin Amash has said he'll run for President at some point, I assume whenever Rand finally doesn't.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
benjipwns said:
Walker and Rand will probably run again. Nikki Haley and Tim Scott out of SC.
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lol, Walker and Rand only ever won elections because of their hardcore racism and Cruz is willing to praise proud white supremacists. Walker and Rand have no shot against Cruz.

Ben Sasse and Tom Cotton will probably run in 2020 and they're going to get fucked up so badly. Cotton is going to get around 3% and it's going to be delicious.

Ted Nugent will lead the polls at some point in 2019 also.
 
K

Kangi

Member
Tim Scott wouldn't fare much better than Lindsey, I feel. But Haley could easily fill the role of an "establishment" pick now that Rubio's been K.O.'d.

I doubt she'd win against Hillary, since it's more of the GOP's "it's not the policies, it's the package" mindset. Though she does have an odd way of making people like her. Even I kind of like her and I have no idea why, because I really shouldn't.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
This might be a stupid question, but what ever happened to the go-to talking point of approving the Keystone pipeline on day one of a Republican presidency? I remember Romney talking about it in 2012 and I thought Cruz mentioned it during his campaign but I've heard nothing so far this year.

It's strange, it just seems like they all collectively dropped it as an issue.
 
T

Third Strike

Member
Kangi said:
Tim Scott wouldn't fare much better than Lindsey, I feel. But Haley could easily fill the role of an "establishment" pick now that Rubio's been K.O.'d.

I doubt she'd win against Hillary, since it's more of the GOP's "it's not the policies, it's the package" mindset. Though she does have an odd way of making people like her. Even I kind of like her and I have no idea why, because I really shouldn't.
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Why do I get the impression that another "anti-establishment" pick will be the GOP nominee in 2020? Seems like picking an outsider might become the norm in the future, especially after the success of Trump, and to a lesser extent, Sanders.
 
J

johnsmith

remember me
S

Snowman Prophet of Doom

Member
benjipwns said:
Walker and Rand will probably run again. Nikki Haley and Tim Scott out of SC. Tom Cotton, John Thune.

Rubio's people are already planning a 2020 bid. Christie's too supposedly.

Justin Amash has said he'll run for President at some point, I assume whenever Rand finally doesn't.
Click to expand...

Walker I think will be fucked if Wisconsin takes a turn for the worse, as Kansas and Louisiana have. Haley and Scott I don't see having much traction. Rubio and Christie are fucking cooked after this year. Rand maybe has a shot, but I think he's a man awaiting a party realignment that isn't quite ready yet. The other two I don't really know enough about.

Cruz will have spent the better part of a decade building his brand, will be able to point to the failure of Romney and Donald as proof that "fake" conservatives can't win, will be able to channel anti-establishment fears after he pulls another contrived stunt or two in a Hillary presidency, and will prey upon whatever unrest besets the Middle East in the next few years, and maybe he'll figure out how to utilize Donald's dirt-simple populism to his own ends. He's an even worse GE candidate than The Donald, but he's also going to be able to say he's the one that could have unseated that disaster if people had only united behind him earlier.
 
C

Cerium

Member
It's way too early to predict 2020 considering we don't even know if there will be a Republican party or what it will look like.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Cruz is only in the position he is because of Trump. Without Trump he's just a better funded Santorum, and he's going to have a ton of obstacles in 2020.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Walker I think will be fucked ... Haley and Scott I don't see having much traction. Rubio and Christie are fucking cooked after this year. Rand maybe
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Walker and Rand have no shot against
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Tim Scott wouldn't fare much better than Lindsey, I feel.
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It doesn't really matter much whether a candidate can objectively be competitive in deciding if they run or not. Look at this field. And the one before it. And the one before it. And the one before that. And Alan Keyes' entire political career.

I was thinking of candidates I expect to run at some point or at least generate five thousand POLITICO stories on how sources expect them to.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
lol, Walker and Rand only ever won elections because of their hardcore racism
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wat

Cerium said:
It's way too early to predict 2020 considering we don't even know if there will be a Republican party or what it will look like.
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There will be a Republican Party. It has too many advantages cooked into the books.

Basileus777 said:
Cruz is only in the position he is because of Trump. Without Trump he's just a better funded Santorum, and he's going to have a ton of obstacles in 2020.
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Cruz had a base, and was high in the polls dating back to 2014. Better than Rubio even. Cruz raised more money than the non-Jeb field of candidates before the voting started.

Santorum never had that, he was simply last man standing.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Scott Walker had already won three statewide elections before he said any of that. He's won zero elections since saying it.

Where's the "hardcore racism" in the Rand Paul link?
 
H

hydragonwarrior

Member
Why the hell is Mitt voting/endorsing Cruz? Wouldn't it make more sense to vote for Kasich if they're hoping for some kind of pull back to being a moderate?

Holy shit, GOP makes no sense.
 
C

Cerium

Member
hydragonwarrior said:
Why the hell is Mitt voting/endorsing Cruz? Wouldn't it make more sense to vote for Kasich if they're hoping for some kind of pull back to being a moderate?

Holy shit, GOP makes no sense.
Click to expand...

Mitt just wants to deny Trump the 1237 so that Mitt can put his own name in at a brokered convention.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
hydragonwarrior said:
Is this something that Cruz isn't aware of though? I mean, Cruz is straight up thanking him for that endorsement...
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Of course he is aware, but why publicly acknowledge it? They're both playing the game, they just have different endings in mind. For now, their interests are fully aligned.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Avon Barksdale said:
Scott "Charles in Charge" Baio endorsed Trump. How soon before Willie "Bibleman" Aames backs Cruz?
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Why he endorsed him:
Telling Fox News' Judge Jeanine Pirro that Trump "speaks like I speak," Baio said that he is "fed up" with Republicans and now considers himself a conservative independent, but values Trump's forthrightness.

"It's very simple, because when he speaks I understand him," Baio told Pirro. "He speaks like I speak, he communicates with people very well. I want him, as any one person can do, to go into Washington and blow it up."
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxv7rEnf-a0
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
Listen. Charles was in charge, then came the 90s, the Clintons, NAFTA, and guess what? Charles is out of a job! Sad!

Trump just wants to put Charles in Charge of our days, of our nights, our wrongs and our rights. He want Charles in Charge of you and make USA great again.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Yesterday I was on the light rail and there was a car with 6-7 black people in it and one middle aged white guy who just out of nowhere said, "Are y'all feeling the Bern?" Everyone looked up and then he said, "He was fighting for civil rights while she was gettin' rich."

Then everyone moved to another car.
 
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