Was it weaver or Devine?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Was it weaver or Devine?
cartoon_soldier
Member
What is Hillary up to? No news or anything.
She took about a week off holding public events to fundraise for the general and to consult with some defense lawyers.
Hillary preparing for jail!
Did she meet with her tailor to go over orange fabric samples for her prison pantsuit?
Not there yet, thank goodness.
GregLombardi
Member
Is there any way for the internet to turn their attention to Mcconnell's senate seat and pour money into his opponents campaign?
FloydtheFathead
Member
We'd need a time machine. He's not up for reelection I believe.
benjipwns
Banned
Cesare Borgia
Banned
8+ years ago it was pretty easy to figure out who the next republican nominee would be given that the party tended to pick the "next man up." However the party's implosion after Obama's presidency has resulted in a very volatile situation that's hard to predict.
Back in 2013 the general consensus of myself and many others was that 2016 would be Scott Walker's year. He's respected by the base and the establishment is on friendly terms with him; I figured all he needed to do was surround himself with some neocons and give speeches in order to wrap things up. Never thought Jeb was a threat. Cruz was always going to do well but I figured a consensus pick could silence him. Obviously no one thought Trump would run.
So 2020 is anyone's guess. In the past Cruz would be the "next man up," assuming that Trump is the nominee this year. But who knows where the party will be in four years. My general guess is that we'll see another lurch to the right in 2018 to win more House seats, followed by another extreme candidate winning the nomination in 2020. But Cruz could be out of style by then, like Bachman and Rand Paul were this season.
Haley seems like a Rubio style fantasy to me. I think the extremism of the base would end her campaign in the south, where her Confederate flag decision is still not popular (with the white people who vote in republican primaries). Tom Cotton isn't a threat to anyone either.
Back in 2013 the general consensus of myself and many others was that 2016 would be Scott Walker's year. He's respected by the base and the establishment is on friendly terms with him; I figured all he needed to do was surround himself with some neocons and give speeches in order to wrap things up. Never thought Jeb was a threat. Cruz was always going to do well but I figured a consensus pick could silence him. Obviously no one thought Trump would run.
So 2020 is anyone's guess. In the past Cruz would be the "next man up," assuming that Trump is the nominee this year. But who knows where the party will be in four years. My general guess is that we'll see another lurch to the right in 2018 to win more House seats, followed by another extreme candidate winning the nomination in 2020. But Cruz could be out of style by then, like Bachman and Rand Paul were this season.
Haley seems like a Rubio style fantasy to me. I think the extremism of the base would end her campaign in the south, where her Confederate flag decision is still not popular (with the white people who vote in republican primaries). Tom Cotton isn't a threat to anyone either.
Third Strike
Member
I'm willing to bet McConnell won't seek reelection in 2018, and will instead retire. If his gamble with Scalia's seat fails, then I really think that's it for him.
benjipwns
Banned
Trump's success may spur other non-politicians or at least more non-sitting politicians into the game.
Mama Grizzly will be only 56. She backed that Independent/Democratic ticket for Governor against her successor in Alaska. Endorsed Trump obviously. Her endorsement of Haley helped her win the GOP nomination in her race.
Dick Morris continues to assure me that Condi v. Hillary is coming.
And we're all ignoring the real elephant in the room: Jim Gilmore.
Just think about how much that Gilmentium will have built after four years.
Mama Grizzly will be only 56. She backed that Independent/Democratic ticket for Governor against her successor in Alaska. Endorsed Trump obviously. Her endorsement of Haley helped her win the GOP nomination in her race.
Dick Morris continues to assure me that Condi v. Hillary is coming.
And we're all ignoring the real elephant in the room: Jim Gilmore.
Just think about how much that Gilmentium will have built after four years.
Macho Madness
Member
Deseret News Poll
Utah
General Election Match-ups
Clinton 38
Trump 36
Sanders 48
Trump 37
RUDGESIREN:
MORMONS HATE TRUMP SO MUCH IT MAY BE IN PLAY IN NOVEMBER
Utah
General Election Match-ups
Clinton 38
Trump 36
Sanders 48
Trump 37
RUDGESIREN:MORMONS HATE TRUMP SO MUCH IT MAY BE IN PLAY IN NOVEMBER
The guy is a warmonger, but damn if Lindsey Graham isn't going to go down in history as one of the louder voices in the party screaming "NOOOOOOOoooooo......!!!!!" in fear of the GOP's demographic fate.
And this ridiculous Luntz panel's reasoning skills resemble those of many OT posters. Lots of emotion and fee-fees..
edit:
LOL. If you're having to spend money/time to defend friggin' Utah..
And this ridiculous Luntz panel's reasoning skills resemble those of many OT posters. Lots of emotion and fee-fees..
edit:
LOL. If you're having to spend money/time to defend friggin' Utah..
QuiteWhittle
Member
Utahns hate Trump and only Trump.Deseret News Poll
Utah
General Election Match-ups
Clinton 38
Trump 36
Sanders 48
Trump 37
Kaisch (R): 59%
Clinton (D): 29%
Cruz (R): 60%
Clinton (D): 32%
Kasich (R): 54%
Sanders (D): 35%
Cruz (R): 53%
Sanders (D): 39%
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
Beats me. The idea that racism should be fought by private initiative and market forces, because government action is coercive and therefore violates the non-aggression principle, is pretty much a staple of libertarian philosophy, no? He correctly identifies the problem of systemic racism, but his philosophy prevents him from saying the government should just stamp it out by fiat. That's naive, but it's not racist.
Macho Madness
Member
I think that Utah poll may be thread worthy. That's funny to me.
If another poll comes out with something similar, Utah is a swing state in November.
If another poll comes out with something similar, Utah is a swing state in November.
Macho Madness
Member
There's an article on BuzzFeed about why they don't like Trump so much. But it tends to boil down to his extreme views on illegal immigration and hatred of Muslims.
benjipwns
Banned
He's also, according to himself, only opposed to that one title of the Civil Rights Act. And would have voted for it anyhow, unlike Goldwater.
I know some PoliGAFers think it's the most important part of it, but I, and I assume Rand, think the whole rest of it where it attempts to tackle institutional racism within the state/government/police!/etc. to be far more important and necessary.
One of the whole points of the damn thing (especially Title III, VI and IX) was to build on the 1957 act to give the DoJ powers to look into and prosecute corrupt local police departments and governments but we lost the plot somewhere along the way.
Also he said this about the Mormon overlord the other day.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ter-romney-in-utah-are-you-sure-hes-a-mormon/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ter-romney-in-utah-are-you-sure-hes-a-mormon/
QuiteWhittle
Member
If you're making a thread here's another poll from January showing a competitive Utah:
http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/fea...ump-barely-beats-clinton-head-to-head-in-utah
And a reason why:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cd4N3IoWAAAHiy2.jpg
And a reminder what Utah looked like in 2012: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Utah,_2012
The most important candidate characteristics for Utahns is "operates with integrity and honesty" and "has strong religious faith" (obviously). Their most important issue is "restore America to values it seems to have lost", followed closely by "the economy and jobs".
In Clinton vs. Trump, 16% said they would not vote and 8% are undecided. In a 2 person race, that's 46% Clinton, 44% Trump, 10% undecided.
In Clinton vs. Trump, 16% said they would not vote and 8% are undecided. In a 2 person race, that's 46% Clinton, 44% Trump, 10% undecided.
If you'd prefer to blame the butterfly, that's appropriate. It accounts for what, 75%+ of their votes? But all these parties combined received fewer than half as many votes as Nader. Nader voters deserve their bad rap.
Yeah, always blows my mind. The formal process by which Bush won was the stupidest shit one can imagine. Florida voted for Gore. Despite the butterfly, despite Nader, despite all of Gore's shortcomings, he still straight up won! The Florida court mandated a process which would have proven it. And 5 assholes who wanted W to win just flat out decided to stop Florida law and the will of the voters from mattering.
I think this has been mentioned in the thread already, but EV have been reallocated so the "blue wall" + 1 swing state isn't really enough anymore. Which, really, is fine.
I dunno why people ever would have thought or expected TN to be an easy win for Gore. First, it's fucking Tennessee, second, he hadn't lived there for 8 years.
True story. I turned 18 right before the 2000 election. I was a college student and could have at the time registered in Florida. I didn't bother and refused to vote because I just hated Lieberman. I'd have voted for Gore had he chosen basically anyone else as a running mate. I don't blame Gore for choosing Lieberman, I blame myself for being a vain, short-sighted child.
Probably goes a long way towards explaining my contempt for Bernie voters and basically anyone who can't bother to take a win in politics.
I think people really tend to underestimate W as a politician. I mean, sure, I wish Kerry had won, and I'm sure he could have done more, but 2004 was a genuinely an uphill climb.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
If Utah is actually in play when we get to October, Arizona is blue this cycle and Clinton is on her way to 400+ EVs.
The Washington caucuses are coming up. I changed my mind and will caucus for Sec. Clinton. I was so pissed in 2008 when Clinton was mathematically eliminated, but acted as if she was not and disallowed President Obama an earlier pivot to the general.
I was going to vote for Sanders as a message candidate, but he is irritating me by playing these games in a year where the SCOTUS hangs in the balance. I want this to be over.
I have never voted for the candidate that eventually won my state primary or caucus, and I have been voting since I turned 18 in 2000. This switch will keep up that streak.
The Washington caucuses are coming up. I changed my mind and will caucus for Sec. Clinton. I was so pissed in 2008 when Clinton was mathematically eliminated, but acted as if she was not and disallowed President Obama an earlier pivot to the general.
I was going to vote for Sanders as a message candidate, but he is irritating me by playing these games in a year where the SCOTUS hangs in the balance. I want this to be over.
I have never voted for the candidate that eventually won my state primary or caucus, and I have been voting since I turned 18 in 2000. This switch will keep up that streak.
I'm skeptical of these great numbers and want more polling (as well as polling in surrounding states!), but damn.. these are take-back-the-House numbers + build-enough-Senate-cushion-to-survive-2018 territory.
User 463088
Banned
Thank you for subverting the revolution and supporting all of us evil oligarchs! I've never voted for a candidate who won my state primary until this year. Maybe Queen will come through in Washington...... Lolz
Trump losing UT in the GE is exactly why Republican elites will never let him get the nomination. Well, they'll die trying at least.
I fully expect a unified response to Trump in the form of things ranging from fines, being formally banned from the GOP, possibly jail time. His conduct at rallies is a fucking trial waiting to happen.
I fully expect a unified response to Trump in the form of things ranging from fines, being formally banned from the GOP, possibly jail time. His conduct at rallies is a fucking trial waiting to happen.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Yep, only one poll and in March there, but if Mormons have that much antipathy for Trump, that makes UT and AZ places where Trump will have to play defense - and I would think that he would lose AZ between the large LDS population, the large Mexican population, and the assistance from limited blue areas like Tucson.
Plus, Trump playing defense in AZ and UT means that MT, MO, GA, etc., are also probably in play, Ann Kirkpatrick (along with many other Democratic Senate candidates) are replacing Republicans in the Senate, etc. In other words, I will cancel class and get drunk in celebration.
I frequent a coffee shop in Redmond with many enthusiastic Sanders between about twenty and forty years of age. They are cool, though. I will have to see what their thoughts are on Sanders's chances next time I go in.
Me, though, I have decided to submit my will to the power. I sublimate my desired to the Queen's, Yaaaaas and verily, and I pray that my Queen does good Werks with her power.
(Is that how it works? Sorry, I am new here. Also, edit because I am doing all this from a phone.)
If we take back the House...
Holy fucking shit.
And Hillary won't take NONE of the GOP's shit and try to compromise. She's going to take that ball and run with it all the way to the moon.
I will be caucusing in WA for Clinton as well! There will be at least two of us!
Lol, even with Trump, there is not a chance in hell that the Dems take back the House.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
User 463088
Banned
We don't even need to win a single one of these states that Trump has trouble holding onto. Every dime and minute Trump has to spend outside the real swing States is a win.
Oh fuck, Goldwater's wife just said she's spring Hillary in the Arizona primary. Fuck.
Oh fuck, Goldwater's wife just said she's spring Hillary in the Arizona primary. Fuck.
Basileus777
Member
The GOP is going to put Trump in jail? Uh...
benjipwns
Banned
Why wouldn't she vote for the hardcore Goldwater Girl? She's basically running on Goldwater's platform word for word.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I wouldn't be surprised if behind the scenes they're already discussing a path that involves some sort of legal involvement.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Let me tell you I love Mormons, they're great people, very kind, we love Mormons right? Yeah we do. I might not share their exact beliefs but really they're great people and that's just great. The thing about Romney is I'm not sure he really believes in anything, all he seems to be doing is try and climb ladders, and when he falls he tries to climb another, and they keep calling him to offer him more ladders but he's always falling, even when it would have been easy to get to the top. I mean really in the last election even a lot of Democrats were against Obama, even in congress, and yet Romney still lost to him. It should have been easy. And now they're asking him to run again, but they know he won't win, he never does, they just want to dilute the vote *hand gesture*, dilute your votes *hand gesture*, they want to dilute it aaaallll of it *hand gesture", so that I won't win. Why is that? You know it, I know it, we all know it, the media back there knows it, ask them; they don't want me to win because they don't want YOU to win! They want someone who's going to be accountable to them, and I'm not because I don't want their money and I'm running not to make them great, I'm running to make America great again!
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