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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
CeAEZ1rWEAE-0rU.jpg


The media's favorability to Trump is tremendous.
 
U

UraMallas

Member
HylianTom said:
I'm skeptical of these great numbers and want more polling (as well as polling in surrounding states!), but damn.. these are take-back-the-House numbers + build-enough-Senate-cushion-to-survive-2018 territory.
Click to expand...

I think brakes need pumped in here. I see your pre-qualifier and I want what you said to be true but I just can't (I won't!) get my hopes up.

But could you imagine?!
 
H

Holmes

Member
HylianTom said:
I'm skeptical of these great numbers and want more polling (as well as polling in surrounding states!), but damn.. these are take-back-the-House numbers + build-enough-Senate-cushion-to-survive-2018 territory.
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If any state in the Mormon corridor goes blue, it will be Utah. It's 60% Mormon. Idaho is about 23% Mormon, and Wyoming is about 10%. There wouldn't be enough Mormons for Democrats to carry Idaho and Wyoming.

I just wanted to say that one time in my life.
 
T

T'Zariah

Banned
Holmes said:
If any state in the Mormon corridor goes blue, it will be Utah. It's 60% Mormon. Idaho is about 23% Mormon, and Wyoming is about 10%. There wouldn't be enough Mormons for Democrats to carry Idaho and Wyoming.

I just wanted to say that one time in my life.
Click to expand...

We're actually discussing the possibility of Utah going blue and it's not a farfetched possibility

What a time to be alive.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Nate Cohn says why I think Trump takes Indiana:

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Trump has won every state with an above average IAT (measure of racial bias) score among whites, except OH/TX (home states of Cruz/Kasich)
Click to expand...

Michael Bronzino @PalmMeadowsFarm
@Nate_Cohn what states that are left fits this profile?
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
.@PalmMeadowsFarm Northeastern corridor, Indiana
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Indiana isn't Ohio. Indiana is more like Michigan. Hit hard by deindustrialization (the city I live in has been hit especially hard) and hasn't recovered all that well. The state is doing well economically right now but there are a ton of people who still feel left behind and could be scooped up by Trump's economic message. And that's not even touching his racist rhetoric which appeals to these same kinds of people for all kinds of different reasons.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
To lose Indiana Trump would have to really alienate suburban and college educated voters and get killed among women. Which is quite possible, but it'd require Hillary to spend in the state, which there wouldn't be reason to do unless the Senate race is in play.

Edit: Oh, this is primary talk? The GE thread had me on a different track.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Basileus777 said:
To lose Indiana Trump would have to really alienate suburban and college educated voters and get killed among women. Which is quite possible, but it'd require Hillary to spend in the state, which there wouldn't be reason to do unless the Senate race is in play.
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I was strictly talking about the primary but I think your analysis is fair for the general. Trump's favorability, I think, has to get much worse than it is now (which is hard to do) and minority turnout has to explode for Clinton to win it in the general. I don't see it happening unfortunately.

The Senate race... I think the Democratic candidate is weak. Plus, I think Young is getting the GOP nomination and he'll be a much stronger candidate than Stutzman.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
ciaossu said:
Why bother? I mean they're straight up refusing to consider as appointment he makes, are we expecting any good behavior or honesty at all?
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Because it's their job as journalists. It is also clear as day what he is doing, setting up the foundation that anyone not to the right of Garland is way too liberal and thus if Hillary wins and ends up nominating anyone they have already been feeding this shit to the general public without being called on it.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Macho Madness said:
I was strictly talking about the primary but I think your analysis is fair for the general. Trump's favorability, I think, has to get much worse than it is now (which is hard to do) and minority turnout has to explode for Clinton to win it in the general. I don't see it happening unfortunately.

The Senate race... I think the Democratic candidate is weak. Plus, I think Young is getting the GOP nomination and he'll be a much stronger candidate than Stutzman.
Click to expand...

The Dem candidate is very weak. If Stutzman gets the nomination then ¯_(ツ)_/¯ but I think Young is going to be the next senator from Indiana.

Bayh must be kicking himself.
 
T

Third Strike

Member
Bowdz said:
Lol, even with Trump, there is not a chance in hell that the Dems take back the House.
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Plinko said:
Bwahahahahaha

Democrats won't get the House back for a decade at least.
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Democrats were able to peak with 201 seats in the House during the 2012 to 2014 session, and this was after redistricting and a presidential election. That's 17 seats short of a slight majority. Since then, states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida have been to court over their maps, and new maps had to be redrawn, which were either slightly less or dramatically less gerrymandered. Not to mention demographics in 2016 are a bit different than 2010.

I don't want to get my hopes up, but 2016 could be the year, and honestly the only year, that the Democrats retake the House, with only a slight majority.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Grief.exe said:
Sounds comparable to this thread.



There is still a filibuster.
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I'm sure democrats would get rid of it. There was already arguments about getting rid of it in 2009, and that was before republicans showed how willing they were to obstruct everything.
 
A

ampere

Member
Particle Physicist said:
Because it's their job as journalists. It is also clear as day what he is doing, setting up the foundation that anyone not to the right of Garland is way too liberal and thus if Hillary wins and ends up nominating anyone they have already been feeding this shit to the general public without being called on it.
Click to expand...

Ah, thought you were asking why people here weren't calling him out. Yea that's a good point, although Garland is probably liberal enough for the most part he's just old
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
NYCmetsfan said:
Holy shit this cop in bay ridge looks just like a young Ted Cruz.

Speaking of Cruz
Click to expand...
Okay, so turns out he wasn't the Zodiac Killer, but he IS a renegade cop sent back in time to thwart Trumps rise as dictator of the United States of America Trump.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
thepotatoman said:
I'm sure democrats would get rid of it. There was already arguments about getting rid of it in 2009, and that was before republicans showed how willing they were to obstruct everything.
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Hmm, the GOP's descent into a fascist party makes me think that we actually need it to be harder to pass bills... But Cruz with the House plus Senate could also just nuke the filibuster too :/
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Concern of mine: If Trump doesn't get the nomination, whoever is the GOP nominee would look so "not so bad" compared to Trump that GOP regulars would have no qualms voting for them and Democrats/Independents would get complacent - even if said nominee still wanted to enact awful policies.

Should that be a concern or am I worried for nothing?
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Crocodile said:
Concern of mine: If Trump doesn't get the nomination, whoever is the GOP nominee would look so "not so bad" compared to Trump that GOP regulars would have no qualms voting for them and Democrats/Independents would get complacent - even if said nominee still wanted to enact awful policies.

Should that be a concern or am I worried for nothing?
Click to expand...
Who is this unnamed "GOP nominee" that you have in mind that could likely be it? That will answer your question.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Crocodile said:
Concern of mine: If Trump doesn't get the nomination, whoever is the GOP nominee would look so "not so bad" compared to Trump that GOP regulars would have no qualms voting for them and Democrats/Independents would get complacent - even if said nominee still wanted to enact awful policies.

Should that be a concern or am I worried for nothing?
Click to expand...
Definitely. Seeing people happy Cruz won Iowa on Twitter drove this home.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
thepotatoman said:
I'm sure democrats would get rid of it. There was already arguments about getting rid of it in 2009, and that was before republicans showed how willing they were to obstruct everything.
Click to expand...
Getting rid of it with recent evidence of how close a guy like trump can get to the White House would be a pretty bad idea.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Macho Madness said:
I think Donnelly has a shot at keeping his seat in 2018. He's pretty well liked and the kind of Democrat that can win in midterms in Indiana.
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2018 has the same problem that 2016 has for Democrats: the incumbents are generally good candidates.

I think most red state Dems will lose, but it'll be very close.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
benjipwns said:
Who is this unnamed "GOP nominee" that you have in mind that could likely be it? That will answer your question.
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Cruz, and he is absolutely right.

If the GOP rips it away from Trump, I think they'll hand it to a Cruz/Kasich ticket.
 
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