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[Poodlestrike]

God-Emprah Trump.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Matthew Isbell ‏@mcimaps 24m24 minutes ago
Based on polling, past results, and general intuition, this could be the remaining Democratic map

 

[B-Dubs]

That looks about right.

 

[sc0la]

Blood coming out of her... wherever.

What is her Republican establishment, Alex?

 

[gcubed]

Obviously we should reallocate delegates based on square mileage of states won. Otherwise the DNC is just stealing more votes and obscuring the democratic process.

He'll still be losing but the supers can move to him as to not go against the will of the less amount of people, states and land mass that has voted for him

 

[thezerofire]

what does the delegate count look like for this?

 

[Basileus777]

what does the delegate count look like for this?

Delegates are allocated proportionally, so you'd need to know the margin of victories to be specific about it.

But it wouldn't be good for Bernie.

 

[User 463088]

I agree with most of this...but what's the point of having a Likely category if they're not going to use it.

 

[Basileus777]

I agree with most of this...but what's the point of having a Likely category if they're not going to use it.

It looks like someone took an existing map and edited for the current situation and didn't use all of the categories.

 

[gcubed]

I agree with most of this...but what's the point of having a Likely category if they're not going to use it.

No testicular fortitude...

IE, bunch of weak shit

 

[ivysaur12]

can you make a new thread for Tuesday. Covers March 22nd and 26th. Same theme if you want to save time(Part 2) "I'm really feeling the(After Bern)". Old one got locked.

Arizona -- Oblivia
Idaho -- Tatsu's Caravan
Utah -- Sylvalum
Alaska -- Valek Mountain
Hawaii -- Noctilum
Washington -- Primordia

Ah shit. I'll try. Won't be a very good thread. Been super busy/sick.

 

[Hexa]

People overusing Topaz. Haven't seen that in a while.

 

[Iolo]

what does the delegate count look like for this?

Since Sanders has to average a win in every state from here on out by 15 points, you can get the general idea.

*unless the supers all switch to him; then he can lose everywhere and win

 

[Slayven]

Fox News has removed Megyn Kelly from election coverage next week.

Murdoch kissing the ring.

When you find out your job doesn't give a shit about about you

Damn I can barely make out anything.

 

[Rebel Leader]

When you find out your job doesn't give a shit about about you



Damn I can barely make out anything.

Hillary is the Snake in the story trump's story but be fore she could bit Trump, Our lord and savior, killed her.

 

[gutter_trash]

watching Road to the Whitehouse now on CNN: Bush v Dukakis

ouch, ouch, ouch

typical Massachusetts Dem candidate allowing himself get defined by his opponent

 

[Poodlestrike]

When you find out your job doesn't give a shit about about you



Damn I can barely make out anything.

This, basically:

 

[danm999]

Fox News has removed Megyn Kelly from election coverage next week.

Murdoch kissing the ring.

Man, what a bunch of spineless fucks.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

On the 13th anniversary of the Iraq War, remember that a grudge W held against Saddam ended a million lives and that Trump won't let go of a grudge against fucking Megyn Kelly.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/12/leadup-iraq-war-timeline

 

[Daniel B·]

Wait, what? Given that Bernie's already close to shrinking Hillary's poll advantage to single digits (see below), in California, especially when you factor in Hillary's Hispandering incident , if Bernie can build up some momentum between now and June, I think it's safe to say he'd win California, on a cool wave, man.

P.S. Found an interesting blog that appears to provide some compelling evidence of serious exit poll irregularities, in MA (I must say, from the start of the night, Bernie was doing good in MA, and then, all of a sudden, it flipped to Hillary...): MA Primary: Unadjusted Exit poll Indicates Bernie won.

 

[superdeluxe]

I agree with most of this...but what's the point of having a Likely category if they're not going to use it.

Eh. New Jersey/Maryland lean for Clinton? Sanders lean for Washington? Should be many likelies for both sides

 

[Macho Madness]

watching Road to the Whitehouse now on CNN: Bush v Dukakis

ouch, ouch, ouch

typical Massachusetts Dem candidate allowing himself get defined by his opponent

My god his campaign was the shits

 

[User 463088]

what does the delegate count look like for this?

So, let's say that map is 100% accurate.

Let's also say that Bernie wins every state that favors him by 20 points. Let's say that Hillary wins the states that favor her 52/48.

A rough estimate would be

Hillary: 1015
Bernie 1002

Total pledged:

Hillary 2162
Bernie 1832

She wouldn't be able to go over the top of 2383 until California...which Bernie could win 70/30 and she'd (after June 7th) still have enough delegates to secure the nomination.

Fun exercise:

Let's say the map is correct and Bernie manages to keep Hillary non-viable in Washington. Let's also say he wins California 70/30.

Total approximate delegates in this scenario:

Hillary 1982
Bernie 1970

 

[excelsiorlef]

Wait, what? Given that Bernie's already close to shrinking Hillary's poll advantage to single digits (see below), in California, especially when you factor in Hillary's Hispandering incident , if Bernie can build up some momentum between now and June, I think it's safe to say he'd win California, on a cool wave, man.

P.S. Found an interesting blog that appears to provide some compelling evidence of serious exit poll irregularities, in MA (I must say, from the start of the night, Bernie was doing good in MA, and then, all of a sudden, it flipped to Hillary...): MA Primary: Unadjusted Exit poll Indicates Bernie won.

Ahh yes an establishment conspiracy. Was it irregularities that caused Sanders to get destroyed in the minority heavy states too?

 

[Holmes]

If Clinton wins Arizona by 10% on Tuesday, she'll be in a good position to win California. Especially since she'll very likely have become the presumptive nominee with the help of the superdelegates by then anyway and voters won't want to waste a vote by voting for someone who's already lost.

 

[Macho Madness]

P.S. Found an interesting blog that appears to provide some compelling evidence of serious exit poll irregularities, in MA (I must say, from the start of the night, Bernie was doing good in MA, and then, all of a sudden, it flipped to Hillary...): MA Primary: Unadjusted Exit poll Indicates Bernie won.

The reason you adjust exit polls as results come in is to project a winner. Exit polls are just that. A poll. An idea of where things could be going when the results come in but you always wait for the votes to start coming in before you declare anything based on them.

 

[Basileus777]

If Clinton wins Arizona by 10% on Tuesday, she'll be in a good position to win California. Especially since she'll very likely have become the presumptive nominee with the help of the superdelegates by then anyway and voters won't want to waste a vote by voting for someone who's already lost.

Why would California even be in question given Bernie's performance with minorities? You don't win a state election in California without black and Hispanic voters, let alone a Democratic primary.

 

[StopMakingSense]

P.S. Found an interesting blog that appears to provide some compelling evidence of serious exit poll irregularities, in MA (I must say, from the start of the night, Bernie was doing good in MA, and then, all of a sudden, it flipped to Hillary...): MA Primary: Unadjusted Exit poll Indicates Bernie won.

This is an extremely poor understanding of what exit polls are, and why they are adjusted.

 

[aspiegamer]

P.S. Found an interesting blog that appears to provide some compelling evidence of serious exit poll irregularities, in MA (I must say, from the start of the night, Bernie was doing good in MA, and then, all of a sudden, it flipped to Hillary...): MA Primary: Unadjusted Exit poll Indicates Bernie won.

You'd think someone who'd go into such details about basic statistics and margins of errors and the like would understand how a goddamn raw exit poll might be more than 1% off. There are a dozen basic reasons I can think of off the top of my head that could screw with its scientific accuracy, and I'm just a random loser who took a statistics course back in college.

 

[excelsiorlef]

This is an extremely poor understanding of what exit polls are, and why they are adjusted.

Math, and proper poll reading are part of the establishment.

 

[Makai]

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Polling analysis from a site that also features JFK conspiracies? Why not.

 

[Holmes]

Why would California even be in question given Bernie's performance with minorities? You don't win a state election in California without black and Hispanic voters, let alone a Democratic primary.

For sure. Especially since Southern Hispanics and blacks have been Clinton's best demographics. I think if Arizona confirms that minorities in the Southwest are just as strong for Clinton, California will go to her too.

And one thing too about California is the Congressional primaries are the same day on June 7 with a half black, half Indian woman and a latina running for Senate so minority turnout will probably not be depressed.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Polling analysis from a site that also features JFK conspiracies? Why not.

Clinton killed JFK... that's what she's hiding in her emails and speech transcripts

 

[NeoXChaos]

Matthew Isbell ‏@mcimaps 1h1 hour ago
Not saying CA is a lock for Clinton, but I'd put money on her over Sanders easily.

Matthew Isbell ‏@mcimaps 1h1 hour ago
In a world where Clinton doesnt get crushed with white liberals but dominates with non-whites, why does anyone think CA favors Sanders?

Matthew Isbell ‏@mcimaps 1h1 hour ago
On California. People mistake its Dem nature for just liberalism, much of it tied to its diverse Demographics

.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Wait, what? Given that Bernie's already close to shrinking Hillary's poll advantage to single digits (see below), in California, especially when you factor in Hillary's Hispandering incident , if Bernie can build up some momentum between now and June, I think it's safe to say he'd win California, on a cool wave, man.

P.S. Found an interesting blog that appears to provide some compelling evidence of serious exit poll irregularities, in MA (I must say, from the start of the night, Bernie was doing good in MA, and then, all of a sudden, it flipped to Hillary...): MA Primary: Unadjusted Exit poll Indicates Bernie won.

Well Bernie is losing right now, but if he starts winning, he'll actually win!

 

[User 463088]

Well Bernie is losing right now, but if he starts winning, he'll actually win!

How dare you. He's only losing in the sense that he has fewer delegates, fewer votes, fewer states carried and fewer Super Delegates.

In every other metric, he's already measuring the drapes! Haven't you been on Reddit?

 

[B-Dubs]

.

You can swap out CA for NY and all of that would still be true. I just don't get some of these predictions that people cling to.

 

[User 463088]

You can swap out CA for NY and all of that would still be true. I just don't get some of these predictions that people cling to.

To be fair, if you actually believe Bernie can still win you have to hold onto the idea that he can win places by huge margins. Reality may not have caught up yet.

If Hillary wins Arizona by 10, and only loses the caucuses by 20 on the same day, Bernie will net 3 delegates.

 

[RastaMentality]

You can swap out CA for NY and all of that would still be true. I just don't get some of these predictions that people cling to.

I honestly don't understand why there's even analysis or discussion of this race anymore. I guess it's generating some clicks still.

 

[Kangi]

You can swap out CA for NY and all of that would still be true. I just don't get some of these predictions that people cling to.

They cling to them because it's essentially the only way he could possibly win. Not winning NY and CA - by a lot - shuts him out of the nomination completely.

 

[Gruco]

Fun exercise:

Let's say the map is correct and Bernie manages to keep Hillary non-viable in Washington. Let's also say he wins California 70/30.

Total approximate delegates in this scenario:

Hillary 1982
Bernie 1970

Sounds like what you're saying is, once you correct for retroactive momentum, it's President Sanders.

 

[Cerium]

I honestly don't understand why there's even analysis or discussion of this race anymore. I guess it's generating some clicks still.

Bernie bros are like those Japanese soldiers who still think they're fighting WWII up in the hills.

 

[NeoXChaos]

The primary at this point is so boring and predictable now. That map I posted is the likely end. She's winning AZ by more than 10. Probably 20-30 pts.

Hawaii should go for Hillary despite the caucus format. She has tied herself to Obama and its a heavy minority population.

 

[Kangi]

Sounds like what you're saying is, once you correct for retroactive momentum, it's President Sanders.

I'm still trying to figure out what this means.

 

[User 463088]

Sounds like what you're saying is, once you correct for retroactive momentum, it's President Sanders.

Exactly. Once Hillary's been arrested, it's anyone's game!

 

[Rubenov]

In the meantime, unemployed reddit people will continue to skip meals so they can contribute $5 more to Bernie's campaign.

 

[Drakeon]

.

I've been beating this drum since Bernie fans realized it was his only way to win. California is 40% white and thus it's hard to imagine a scenario where he even comes close when most of Bernie's wins have been in States with 80%+ white populations.

 

[Gruco]

The primary at this point is so boring and predictable now. That map I posted is the likely end. She's winning AZ by more than 10. Probably 20-30 pts.

Yeah, I'm actually fairly relieved for this. It's even kind of boring on the GOP side. Next several contests are fairly trivial under the shadow of California. Also a good thing. I can only stand so much clown car in my life.

I look forward to a few quiet months of Berners working their way to acceptance and Republicans doing stupid stuff before June 7.

 

[Daniel B·]

So, let's say that map is 100% accurate.

Let's also say that Bernie wins every state that favors him by 20 points. Let's say that Hillary wins the states that favor her 52/48.

A rough estimate would be

Hillary: 1015
Bernie 1002

Total pledged:

Hillary 2162
Bernie 1832

She wouldn't be able to go over the top of 2383 until California...which Bernie could win 70/30 and she'd (after June 7th) still have enough delegates to secure the nomination.

Fun exercise:

Let's say the map is correct and Bernie manages to keep Hillary non-viable in Washington. Let's also say he wins California 70/30.

Total approximate delegates in this scenario:

Hillary 1982
Bernie 1970

And that is precisely the scenario where the Superdelegates should play a role, with such a close contest (here's hoping), where they need to calmly, and diligently consider, who would have the very best chance of defeating the Republican GE opponent. If they choose to not even factor in Bernie's millions of energetic supporters, they could be kicking themselves, come November.

As I've essentially stated before, there's energy to spare on Bernie's side, to soundly beat Trump, but without anything like that energy level, can Hillary guarantee victory?