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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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A

Armaros

Member
Daniel B·;198768327 said:
And that is precisely the scenario where the Superdelegates should play a role, with such a close contest (here's hoping), where they need to calmly, and diligently consider, who would have the very best chance of defeating the Republican GE opponent. If they choose to not even factor in Bernie's millions of energetic supporters, they could be kicking themselves, come November.

As I've essentially stated before, there's energy to spare on Bernie's side, to soundly beat Trump, but without anything like that energy level, can Hillary guarantee victory?
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All polling shows that her voters are just as enthusiastic as sanders supporters.

They just don't spam the Internet, they just do one thing sander supporters online generally don't do, and that is show up at the voting booths

The Youth vote is down across the board compared to Obama and he is down millions of votes in the popular vote.

All talk of momentum and enthusiasm fall flat in the face of numbers.

Edit: also her voting demographics are incredibly diverse, winning in just about every column besides the young vote, especially young whitr male vote, arguably the smallest part of the Democratic coalition.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
BoboBrazil said:
Once Arizona comes through on Tuesday it will be over. Don't see how Bernie supporters could still think otherwise.
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We won Utah and Idaho!!!!

We won Washington and Alaska. Maybe Hawaii too!!

We won Wisconsin!!. We have a chance. keep donating !!!!

keyword being won. Not erased her delegate lead. Not erased her popular vote lead. Not we are still down 300+ delegates.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Daniel B·;198768327 said:
And that is precisely the scenario where the Superdelegates should play a role, with such a close contest (here's hoping), where they need to calmly, and diligently consider, who would have the very best chance of defeating the Republican GE opponent. If they choose to not even factor in Bernie's millions of energetic supporters, they could be kicking themselves, come November.

As I've essentially stated before, there's energy to spare on Bernie's side, to soundly beat Trump, but without anything like that energy level, can Hillary guarantee victory?
Click to expand...

You're arguing that the candidate with the most pledged delegates should not get the nomination because of Bernie Sanders. That's what you're saying. Please, be consistent. A few months ago, most Bernie supporters were moaning up a storm that Hillary has a 450 Super Delegate lead. They were undemocratic! They were terrible! They should never, ever go against the will of the people!

But now that the will of the people appears to be "Not Bernie," well, now these wonderful, intelligent amazingly in touch Super Delegates should ignore what the Democratic voters have decided, and support Bernie because momentum! And Polls!

If Bernie is so amazingly wonderful and Americans are just beating down their doors to vote for him, it's amazing that Hillary leads Bernie in the popular vote by nearly 2.5 million ballots!

My god, does this woman have no shame? She's now managed to steal the ability to count from the American people. She can't keep getting away with it!

BoboBrazil said:
Once Arizona comes through on Tuesday it will be over. Don't see how Bernie supporters could still think otherwise.
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They managed to spin a 5 state sweep as good news for him, so I don't doubt they'll do so again.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
adam387 said:
How dare you. He's only losing in the sense that he has fewer delegates, fewer votes, fewer states carried and fewer Super Delegates.

In every other metric, he's already measuring the drapes! Haven't you been on Reddit?
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If he can get some more good wins, his pockets will be virtually bottomless, compared to Hillary's.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
Tyler guy on predictit:

Gonna get me crucified in these comments.... Don't bet on what I'm saying on my last post people. I don't want to be responsible for anyone losing their money. Arizona is a gamble. My model shows Bernie winning but keep in mind I'm literally the only person that's saying that; 538 and Benchmark have Hilldawg winning. I was also the only person saying Bernie would win Illinois and Missouri, and that obviously didn't happen. I've been wrong before and who knows, I may be wrong again.
Click to expand...
 
A

Armaros

Member
Daniel B·;198769129 said:
If he can get some more good wins, his pockets will be virtually bottomless, compared to Hillary's.
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He is outspending her and losing. And she is keeping up in donations, and spending less in the primary.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
So, it looks like Bernie raised $43.5 million in February, and managed to spend $40.9 million. Leaving him with $17 million cash on hand.

He spent a lot of money for a lot of nothing.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
NeoXChaos said:
stop paying attention to this guy. He making stuff up off the fly.
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lol I'm just monitoring a market I have some money in, saw his comment and couldn't resist some more public shaming. I want him tar and feathered so as to be buried completely. Brainchild drove me crazy with his irrational defense and promotion of him.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Rubenov said:
lol I'm just monitoring a market I have some money in, saw his comment and couldn't resist some more public shaming. I want him tar and feathered so as to be buried completely. Brainchild drove me crazy with his irrational defense and promotion of him.
Click to expand...

yeah.
 
D

dramatis

Member
Daniel B·;198768327 said:
And that is precisely the scenario where the Superdelegates should play a role, with such a close contest (here's hoping), where they need to calmly, and diligently consider, who would have the very best chance of defeating the Republican GE opponent. If they choose to not even factor in Bernie's millions of energetic supporters, they could be kicking themselves, come November.

As I've essentially stated before, there's energy to spare on Bernie's side, to soundly beat Trump, but without anything like that energy level, can Hillary guarantee victory?
Click to expand...
The one thing that ensures Hillary will always have more electability than Bernie in a vs Trump scenario is basically that she's a woman.

That one aspect of Hillary Clinton guarantees her victory.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Does anyone know what Weaver's cut is on the ad buys? I know 6-7% is pretty standard, but I would love to know how much he's banking on all these late ad buys they did in MO, IL, OH, NC and FL.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Daniel B·;198769129 said:
If he can get some more good wins, his pockets will be virtually bottomless, compared to Hillary's.
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As Jeb Bush can tell you, having the most money really is a great way to overcome losing more states and more votes.

I mean Romney raising the most money really helped him beat Obama in 2012 as well.

Raising tons of money when you keep losing states doesn't help.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Sanders campaign raised $43M. Spent $41M. $17M cash on hand.

~60% <$200. This has been gradually declining. I think due to repeat donors.

Edit: oh missed the earlier post.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Daniel B·;198768327 said:
As I've essentially stated before, there's energy to spare on Bernie's side, to soundly beat Trump, but without anything like that energy level, can Hillary guarantee victory?
Click to expand...
I mean, there's incredible energy for him. All of your friends are probably in the same boat, including a few family members! So much energy that it's impossible for him to lose in general. Everyone you talk to is saying the exact same damn thing. It's finally taken this long for someone like him to happen to our corrupt politics. The other side has like nothing. They have zero will and are just going through motions. There's really no way Trump can lose to Hillary.. Oh I'm sorry, did you think I was talking about Bernie?
 
C

Cerium

Member
Are we all forgetting that Daniel B is trolling and playing a character?

Remember that time he pretended to be a pants on head stupid climate change denier?
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
dramatis said:
The one thing that ensures Hillary will always have more electability than Bernie in a vs Trump scenario is basically that she's a woman.

That one aspect of Hillary Clinton guarantees her victory.
Click to expand...

Isn't turnout far more important, especially when Trump's managed to achieve record breaking primary turnouts?

That's the big question; will enough voters turn out for a candidate they may have little enthusiasm for, even if they know a Trump presidency would likely be bad?
 
S

Slayven

Member
Paskil said:
Bernie has so much energy, he just needs to complete the damn spirit bomb and finish Hillary, already.
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sc0la said:
He had to choose to exert his energy on delegates or retroactive momentum.

He chose poorly.
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Y'all won't be laughing when at a Bernie rally the lights dim and the fireworks go off and Howard Dean, Al Franken, and the rest of the Superdelegates appear on stage with Bernie.

I am shocked Al Franken is committed to Hillary, he seems like a Bernie man.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Not to try and pile on but

Vancouver, Washington (CNN) In a candid campaign trail admission Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders on Sunday said that he is "not doing well with older people."

As the Vermont senator implored a rally audience about the importance of young people's involvement in his campaign -- part of his standard stump speech -- he paused a moment and added, "If I can make a political statement here, it's interesting as we go along this campaign, we are not doing well, we are working on it, I cannot tell you why, we are not doing well with older people."
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giphy.gif


YOU'VE RAISED 100 MILLION DOLLARS AND YOU HAVEN'T GOT A FUCKING CLUE WHY YOU'RE NOT DOING WELL WITH THE MOST RELIABLE BLOCK OF VOTERS?
 
C

Cerium

Member
Daniel B·;198771027 said:
Isn't turnout far more important, especially when Trump's managed to achieve record breaking primary turnouts?

That's the big question; will enough voters turn out for a candidate they may have little enthusiasm for, even if they know a Trump presidency would likely be bad?
Click to expand...
Tell us about how climate change is a hoax again.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Daniel B·;198771027 said:
Isn't turnout far more important, especially when Trump's managed to achieve record breaking primary turnouts?

That's the big question; will enough voters turn out for a candidate they may have little enthusiasm for, even if they know a Trump presidency would likely be bad?
Click to expand...

You're right. Turnout is important. That's why Hillary having 2.5 million more votes than Bernie is so important in determining who our nominee should be. Or the fact that the youth turnout that was going to bring us the revolution is down over 2008....

Let's dispel with the fiction that primary turnout is indicative of who will win the GE, though.
 
L

lastflowers

Banned
There were probably a thousand or so people outside of Key Arena today stuck because the line to get into the Arena could take over 2 hours (I was there at 2:50ish and couldn't get in by 5). He did an impromptu speech outside on a balcony for the folks stuck outside and I was about 30 yards away. Afterwards, he went inside to the main event. I'm not sure this is the norm, but it made the wait well worth it to me.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
By definition as the frontrunner, with her 320 odd delegate lead, she has more votes than Sanders. Last time I recall she had more votes than Trump. So I still don't get where the enthusiasm turnout myth is coming from.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
sc0la said:
He had to choose to exert his energy on delegates or retroactive momentum.

He chose poorly.
Click to expand...

Once the retroactive momentum hits 2000 and Gore becomes retroactive president, we'll finally understand Bernie's retroactive vision for America.
 
U

User 85168

Banned
Daniel B·;198771027 said:
Isn't turnout far more important, especially when Trump's managed to achieve record breaking primary turnouts?

That's the big question; will enough voters turn out for a candidate they may have little enthusiasm for, even if they know a Trump presidency would likely be bad?
Click to expand...

Primary turnouts have never meant anything for the general election in the past.

ivysaur12 said:
Why, he's in Vancouver? Why?
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Vancouver, WA. It's next to Portland.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
By definition as the frontrunner, with her 320 odd delegate lead, she has more votes than Sanders. Last time I recall she had more votes than Trump. So I still don't get where the enthusiasm turnout myth is coming from.
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It's the echo chamber effect, I guess. For some people, EVERYBODY they know is hugely enthusiastic about Bernie, which leads to the perception that this is true everywhere.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Slayven said:
Y'all won't be laughing when at a Bernie rally the lights dim and the fireworks go off and Howard Dean, Al Franken, and the rest of the Superdelegates appear on stage with Bernie.
Click to expand...

San Dimas High School Football rules!

Bernie has so much energy and retroactive momentum that the two black holes which collided a billion years ago and emitted gravitational waves were named Devine and Weaver
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Who is the Hillary Voter?

We never hear that Hillary Clinton has &#8220;momentum&#8221;&#8212;what she has is a &#8220;sizable delegate lead.&#8221; No one this cycle has described Clinton supporters as &#8220;fired up&#8221;&#8212;it&#8217;s simply not possible that people are fired up for Hillary. No, what we gather about Clinton from the press is that she can&#8217;t connect. She has very high unfavorable ratings. People think she is dishonest and untrustworthy. She is not a gifted politician. She is a phony. Hated by so many. The list goes on.

Considering that narrative, one would expect Clinton to be faring far worse in the primaries. Instead, she currently holds a popular vote and delegate lead over Sanders that far surpasses Obama&#8217;s lead over her at this point in the race in 2008.

This is no accident. An examination of Clinton voters and their motivations might reveal that the narrative that most media outlets have been feeding us this election cycle is dubious at best. Because if the biggest vote-getter of either party is Hillary&#8212;by a large margin&#8212;then that suggests the electorate is not necessarily as angry as pundits claim. It further suggests that perhaps some people are tired of hearing about how angry they are, and are quietly asserting their opinions at the ballot box. If Democrats are so angry, Clinton would not be in the position she is today. Is it really so farfetched to claim that quite a few Democrats aren&#8217;t voting for Sanders precisely because he seems angry? Which isn&#8217;t to suggest that people aren&#8217;t angry&#8212;certainly many Republican primary voters seem to be. Rather, it is to suggest that voters who aren&#8217;t angry are still showing up at the polls, despite being ignored in news stories.

So perhaps Clinton voters don&#8217;t show up at rallies so much. Perhaps they are a bit less passionate on Facebook, share fewer articles, give less money to their candidate (she does have a super PAC, after all). But what they are doing is perhaps the only thing that actually matters in an election. They are showing up to vote. In numbers that no other candidate can boast.

It&#8217;s certainly curious to presume, as many do, that Clinton&#8217;s supporters are somehow less enthusiastic than Sanders&#8217;s are. How is enthusiasm measured, if not by actual vote count? And they are doing so despite the media narrative surrounding their candidate, despite hearing very little about themselves in the media, despite her &#8220;damn&#8221; emails, despite Benghazi, despite her low Gallup favorables, and despite how everyone else is &#8220;Feeling the Bern.&#8221; If anything, Clinton might need to thank the press for consistently underestimating her. Perhaps this is why her supporters are coming out for her in such strength: to assert their existence in the face of a narrative that both overlooks them and disparages their candidate.
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A

ampere

Member
Daniel B·;198766007 said:
Wait, what? Given that Bernie's already close to shrinking Hillary's poll advantage to single digits (see below), in California, especially when you factor in Hillary's Hispandering incident ;), if Bernie can build up some momentum between now and June, I think it's safe to say he'd win California, on a cool wave, man.

http://e.huffpost.com/screenshooter/elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/embed/ss2/2016-california-democratic-presidential-primary/20160321012745024.png[img]

P.S. Found an interesting blog that appears to provide some compelling evidence of serious exit poll irregularities, in MA (I must say, from the start of the night, Bernie was doing good in MA, and then, all of a sudden, it flipped to Hillary...): [url=https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/03/02/ma-primary-unadjusted-exit-poll-indicates-bernie-won/]MA Primary: Unadjusted Exit poll Indicates Bernie won[/url].[/QUOTE]

You're complaining that an 11% lead in polling is labeled as "Lean Clinton" because you think it will change? I don't follow

I think you should [URL="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/upshot/exit-polls-why-they-so-often-mislead.html"]read this piece on exit polls[/URL], it seems like you misunderstand how they work and problems they can have.
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D

Daniel B·

Banned
Cerium said:
Tell us about how climate change is a hoax again.
Click to expand...

I'm saving my paper on how a trace gas, that makes up just 0.04% of the Earth's atmosphere, has this miraculous ability (at such low concentrations), to trap heat, and dream of constructing an experiment to confound the World.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
the race to the white house specials cnn does are fucking great. Im glad they didnt gloss over kennedy's dirty tricks towards humphrey, even they they did make it look like the noble hero justly battling back against persecution. Also, Nixon was such a grand orator. I would vote for him over hillary in a heartbeat
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Daniel B·;198772041 said:
I'm saving my paper on how a trace gas, that makes up just 0.04% of the Earth's atmosphere, has this miraculous ability (at such low concentrations), to trap heat, and dream of constructing an experiment to confound the World.
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Retromelon said:
the race to the white house specials cnn does are fucking great. Im glad they didnt gloss over kennedy's dirty tricks towards humphrey, even they they did make it look like the noble hero justly battling back against persecution. Also, Nixon was such a grand orator. I would vote for him over hillary in a heartbeat
Click to expand...

The one on Bush-Dukakis aired tonight. Man, Dukakis was such a shitty candidate and ran a terrible campaign.
 
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