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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Per Luke Russert, here are the people seen at Trump's big GOP meeting:

Seen at Trump meeting: Sen. Sessions, Cotton, Reps. Reed, Marino, DesJarlais, Hunter then Newt and the almost Speaker Bob Livingston

So basically the only name person that isn't already a Trump supporter is Cotton, and I guess, Newt. Pretty weak turnout.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
Per Luke Russert, here are the people seen at Trump's big GOP meeting:

Seen at Trump meeting: Sen. Sessions, Cotton, Reps. Reed, Marino, DesJarlais, Hunter then Newt and the almost Speaker Bob Livingston

So basically the only name person that isn't already a Trump supporter is Cotton, and I guess, Newt. Pretty weak turnout.
Click to expand...

Sad!
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Macho Madness said:
The speech is what feeds into the myth that she's "to the right" on Trump when it comes to foreign policy. But that assumes you take her at her word and you don't take Trump at his. Which isn't fair.
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It's hilarious.

Hillary is a liar until she says something disagreeable, at which point people will say "See? That's the REAL Hillary!"

Then Trump comes in as a supposed no-bullshit straight-shooter, until he says something totally batshit at which point those same people will say "Don't worry, he's just pandering for political support!"

I really think it's the fact that she's a woman.

Btw, Charlie Cook updated ratings for ten Congressional seats. All of them favor the Democrats.

CA-16 Costa Likely D to Solid D
CA-31 Aguilar Likely D to Solid D
CA-36 Ruiz Likely D to Solid D
CT-05 Esty Likely D to Solid D
IA-03 Young Lean R to Toss Up
MN-03 Paulsen Solid R to Likely R
NY-23 Reed Likely R to Lean R
NY-24 Katko Lean R to Toss Up
NE-02 Ashford Toss Up to Lean D
VA-10 Comstock Likely R to Lean R
Click to expand...

So basically on the Dem side, you have 4 longshots (the three CA seats and CT-5) become basically impossible for the Republicans to win and 1 tossup (NE-2) become Dem-favored. For the GOP, two R-favored districts (IA-3 and NY-24) become actual tossups, two longshots (NY-23 and VA-10) become merely R-favored, and one seat impossible for the Democrats (MN-3) is now on the table.

Personally I hope we can boot Paulsen and replace Kline with a Democrat this year. Then MN's delegation would be 7-1 D/R and only Bachmann's old seat would still be held by a Republican.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
Per Luke Russert, here are the people seen at Trump's big GOP meeting:

Seen at Trump meeting: Sen. Sessions, Cotton, Reps. Reed, Marino, DesJarlais, Hunter then Newt and the almost Speaker Bob Livingston

So basically the only name person that isn't already a Trump supporter is Cotton, and I guess, Newt. Pretty weak turnout.
Click to expand...

LOL
 
D

Drek

Member
Macho Madness said:
Seeing the Race for the White House, they talk about how painting your opponent as a "risk" candidate is the key to win. Do you think that's true anymore?
Click to expand...

Yes, especially when much of the U.S. citizenry feels like they're just getting off the mat from the mortgage crisis and it's impact on the stock market.

The fringes on both ends of the spectrum feel under-represented and are making a lot of noise to that effect, but the far right has been showing up to vote all along and hasn't been able to effect the kind of change they want. Their argument has been establishment republicans forcing RINOs on them, so now they want Trump. The far left doesn't show up to vote or throws their vote down a well by picking things like the Green Party that no one gives a damn about. Their surge behind Sanders this primary only underscores 1. the fact that they're a vocal minority in the first place and 2. that they still won't show up to vote consistently.

Primary season is when people wanting radical high risk/high reward candidates should have disproportionate say. The leading candidate in total nationwide vote in Hillary Clinton, the most obvious and establishment raised candidate in recent political history. Tells you what the average American really wants - slow but steady progress.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
NeoXChaos said:
No numbers for Democrats?
Click to expand...
This seems to just be a GOP poll.


Voysa Reezun said:
Not enough undecideds in this poll to make a Cruz win feasible.

Only one data point, of course, but Trump taking AZ and all its delegates seems likely.

Since Maricopa County is full of the batshittiest of batshit crazy conservatives, this is no shock. Were Trump not in the race, it would be Ted Cruz country.
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I wonder what a strong performance in NW Arizona suggests about California. Though I suppose we already knew that he did well in the neighboring part of Nevada.
Towery said, “While Trump’s highest rate of support is in the Northwestern corner of the state, he posts strong numbers in the Phoenix area with 48%.
Click to expand...
Trump also dominates among older voters
Trump wins the support of the largest age cohorts, with over 50% of the 65+ vote.
Click to expand...
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Chris Hayes interviewed Bernie today and asked about today's Hillary speech and about protesters shutting down rallies. Will air tonight on his show.

Apparently it's surprising to Chris that Bernie believes people shouldn't shut down Trump rallies but it's okay to protest them. What did you expect him to say?

Maybe he got some blowback from this?

http://youtu.be/VGqcO1nhglM
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
So, my new dream scenario is for the GOP to, after this election is over and the dust has cleared, decide that they need to change their primary system to prevent a Trump from rising ever again. Rather than add superdelegates, they institute instant run-off voting in all their primaries, sparking the movement that eventually establishes it as the standard nationwide in the general election.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
EskimoJoe said:
So, my new dream scenario is for the GOP to, after this election is over and the dust has cleared, decide that they need to change their primary system to prevent a Trump from rising ever again. Rather than add superdelegates, they institute instant run-off voting in all their primaries, sparking the movement that eventually establishes it as the standard nationwide in the general election.
Click to expand...

In a primary sure, but after hearing about how it goes in Louisiana how about no?
 
C

CCS

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
A tad divine?
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Hahaha very good :p

Basileus777 said:
Arizona Opinion Savvy Poll

Donald "I beat China all the time" Trump - 46%
Ted Cruz - 33%.
John Kasich - 17%
undecided - 4%

Early Voters: Donald "I beat China all the time" Trump at 44% to Cruz’s 38%.


Tuesday should be pretty boring for the GOP with Donald "I beat China all the time" Trump and Cruz getting easy WTA victories in Arizona/Utah. The most exciting thing would be Cruz failing to break 50% in Utah.
Click to expand...

Good to see Rubio pulling out really helped Kasich.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
B-Dubs said:
In a primary sure, but after hearing about how it goes in Louisiana how about no?
Click to expand...

Can you expand on this a little? I haven't seen anything about IRV in Louisiana.

They recently instituted IRV for the Oakland mayoral race and there were definitely some complaints about it, but I felt like they were mostly people going "change is bad and scared me" rather than substantive critiques of IRV.

I think overall I'd be in support of nationwide IRV, although I think if I were working on election reform that would certainly not be my immediate focus.
 
T

Teggy

Member
By the way, NPR had some coverage of Trumps response to Warren over the weekend. Predictably it was cracks about her Native American heritage dust up.

Warren did also mention that Trump campaigning with Scott Brown was like the Celebrity Apprentice with The Biggest Loser.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
pigeon said:
Can you expand on this a little? I haven't seen anything about IRV in Louisiana.

They recently instituted IRV for the Oakland mayoral race and there were definitely some complaints about it, but I felt like they were mostly people going "change is bad and scared me" rather than substantive critiques of IRV.

I think overall I'd be in support of nationwide IRV, although I think if I were working on election reform that would certainly not be my immediate focus.
Click to expand...

I seem to remember some Louisiana gaffers complaining that the general would often just wind up as two republicans.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
Basileus777 said:
I wonder what a strong performance in NW Arizona suggests about California. Though I suppose we already knew that he did well in the neighboring part of Nevada.

Trump also dominates among older voters
Click to expand...

NW AZ is culturally more like Utah or SE Nevada than CA. I do not think that it suggests much about Trump in CA.

Older voters are generally extremely Tea Party conservative in Maricopa County. The areas in the West Valley like Sun City, Peoria, Glendale, etc. are filled with old, conservative, racist voters who are reliable voters.

I suspect that were it not for the large LDS presence in Mesa and other areas in the East Valley, Trump would have a much larger lead there.
 
F

Fuchsdh

Member
aTTckr said:
Given the American public's fascination with wealth and completely equating it with success I don't know how successful this loser calling strategy will be. Trump will do the same thing as with Romney, ridiculing him for being worth "only" a couple of hundred million. If Clinton calls Trump a loser, he can retort that at least he doesn't have to "prostitute" (sorry for the word) himself by going to weddings or giving speeches for money. However, the strategy that I believe could be successful in painting him as a loser is somehow showing that he is worth much less than he states he is, then you really go after he strength because bragging about money that you don't have, kind of invalidates the money you actually have (even if it still is a billion+).
Click to expand...

I mean that's a given, he's admitted in legal proceedings that his net worth is just a number he pulls from his ass. But to the Trump fans I don't think it matters.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Never entered my mind that in the midst of a heated primary Big Don would announce a presser to hawk his hotel. Would die if this is the case
 
P

pigeon

Banned
B-Dubs said:
I seem to remember some Louisiana gaffers complaining that the general would often just wind up as two republicans.
Click to expand...

Are you sure you're not thinking of jungle primaries? That sounds like the problem with jungle primaries (comes up a lot in California).
 
T

T'Zariah

Banned
Melkr_ said:
Bernie wanted Obama primary'd because of his failure to put a single foot into jail after the 08 crash.

Clinton is critiquing Obama for not standing by a proto-apartheid state and not supporting a lunatic prime minister.

She is gross.
Click to expand...
Bernie still doesn't realize what the bankers did wasn't illegal so nobody could've went to jail!!
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Why do so many reporters at these things ask 40 different questions at once that have no relation to each other

" so Obama, what is your favorite type of poptart, who really killed Kennedy, was the last season of the voice better or worse than the previous season, do you think that Nintendo has released too many amiibo in a short amount of time, also Trump or Hillary?"
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
lmao oops

Morning Consult National Poll (March 18-21)

General election match-ups

Clinton 43
Ryan 35

Sanders 49
Ryan 39

Clinton 41
Kasich 39

Sanders 46
Kasich 32

Democratic primary (National)

Clinton 51 (+2)
Sanders 39 (-1)

Republican primary (National)

Trump 45 (+2)
Cruz 26 (-1)
Kasich 13 (-1)
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Macho Madness said:
lmao oops

Morning Consult National Poll (March 18-21)

General election match-ups

Clinton 43
Ryan 35

Sanders 49
Ryan 39

Clinton 41
Kasich 39

Sanders 46
Kasich 32

Democratic primary (National)

Clinton 51 (+2)
Sanders 39 (-1)

Republican primary (National)

Trump 45 (+2)
Cruz 26 (-1)
Kasich 13 (-1)
Click to expand...

...Paul Ryan?
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
...Paul Ryan?
Click to expand...

New_Challenger_Approachingtransparent_zpsda3f4eb4.png
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Rebel Leader said:
The fuck?
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...on-post/?postshare=1961458585271741&tid=ss_tw

Trump declared U.S. involvement in NATO may need to be significantly diminished in the coming years, breaking with nearly seven decades of consensus in Washington. "We certainly can’t afford to do this anymore," Trump said, adding later, "NATO is costing us a fortune, and yes, we’re protecting Europe with NATO, but we’re spending a lot of money."
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God help us
 
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