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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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Drakeon

Member
I think they should be better about this regardless, but it seems as if the DCCC is getting very serious very fast about their congressional races ever since Trump (or Cruz) seem likely to be at the top of the ticket:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/trump-gop-house-majority-jeopardy-221004



The real key:



The strategy we'll see going forward:

Fucking good. It's long past time since the DCCC actually did more than try to keep the seats it has safe (which 2010 and 2014 point to it being pretty terrible at).
 

Brinbe

Member
Smart strat. Doing exactly what they should be doing. They'll def make some solid gains with Trump/Cruz dragging things down.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Smart strat. Doing exactly what they should be doing. They'll def make some solid gains with Trump/Cruz dragging things down.

They should've started a month ago, but yeah.

Now that we know where Scott Baio stands, have either Cruz or Trump scored the coveted Patty Heaton endorsement?
 

ivysaur12

Banned
wait omg can we talk about the NRCC's response to the establishment preferred candidate in CA-25?

https://www.nrcc.org/2015/12/10/bryan-caforio-carpetbags-into-ca-25-beverly-hills-style/

Before reading, click here (IVY'S NOTE: THIS IS AN ACTUAL LINK IN THE ARTICLE)

90210.jpg


Former LA resident and Beverly Hills-barred attorney Bryan Caforio has announced he will run for Congress in CA-25 in an attempt to bigfoot the local Democratic candidates already in the race. National Democrats, unimpressed with their current crop of candidates, have imported cool-kid Bryan Caforio from 90210 in hopes of upping their chances here.

Caforio foolishly thinks he can waltz in like a Yale-educated Dylan McKay and win over 25th District voters in less than a year (think a little more Ivy League and a lot less hair gel). But voters won’t be fooled by Caforio’s new-kid-in-town routine while Rep. Steve Knight, who has lived in and served the community for years, continues to work hard for the 25th District.

“National Democrats were so unimpressed with their current candidates that they had no choice but to carpetbag a Beverly Hills lawyer into town. Caforio may think he’s the cool kid from 90210, but 25th District voters won’t fall for his new-kid-in-town act.” – NRCC Spokesman Zach Hunter
 
Don't think I agree at all with Warren bringing nothing to the ticket

She's vocal, she's a fighter, and is like one of the three establishment dems that has any sort of credibility with the Berniebro crowd, whether that's fair or not. The "Sanders" wing of the democratic side is thin and picking her would definitely excite a lot of the people Bernie has riled up. I also think it'll help Hillary have more room to moderate with someone who has more of that progressive legitimacy under her.

This is going to be a tough fight and warrens comments these past few days make me feel like she's totally ready to take it on. Id rather someone like her who's vocal ready and willing rather than Castro who I don't think I've ever heard say a single word ever

Tom Perez would be cool too though
 
I think they should be better about this regardless, but it seems as if the DCCC is getting very serious very fast about their congressional races ever since Trump (or Cruz) seem likely to be at the top of the ticket:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/trump-gop-house-majority-jeopardy-221004



The real key:



The strategy we'll see going forward:
Candidate recruitment isn't great this cycle, but the one thing a genuine wave would do is put many more seats on the table that aren't normally in play. The Dem wave in 2006 took down plenty of GOP Congressmen who were thought to be safe, same for the GOP wave in 2010. Guys like Chet Edwards and Jim Oberstar who had been around forever. But here we are.

Please oh please let MN-3 be competitive. Paulsen sucks.
 

Cerium

Member
Majority leader's got to be a bit of an asshole to be effective. Harry Reid is an asshole in the best way. Chuck Schumer is... just an asshole. I don't think Warren has enough asshole factor for the job.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Candidate recruitment isn't great this cycle, but the one thing a genuine wave would do is put many more seats on the table that aren't normally in play. The Dem wave in 2006 took down plenty of GOP Congressmen who were thought to be safe, same for the GOP wave in 2010. Guys like Chet Edwards and Jim Oberstar who had been around forever. But here we are.

Please oh please let MN-3 be competitive. Paulsen sucks.

Well, we all know that WI-3 (Paul Ryan) is only an R+3 on the Cook PVI scale.

LET ME DREAM, AARON.
 
christ almighty why do i ever engage in NYT comment sections

"Bernie appeals to the politically astute/policy-minded!"

"You mean people who are actually likely to understand policy? Because Clinton beats him with college grads and eviscerates him among post-grads."

"Politically astute means [a sentence full of undefinable buzzword garbage]"
 
Well, we all know that WI-3 (Paul Ryan) is only an R+3 on the Cook PVI scale.

LET ME DREAM, AARON.
Yeah Ryan has never really had a tough reelection race but when was the last time the Speaker of the House was in a seat that was even mildly competitive? Could be pretty dangerous if Ryan was made the face of Republican obstructionism.
 

Tesseract

Banned
Hey what can I do to become a professional neoliberal politician? Like, do I just accept hrc as carcosa, eat a baby, and I'm in?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
If we get rid of Ryan though, his replacement will probably be worse.

Oh god, I still remember my reaction to some of the other choices floated. We got lucky as shit with Ryan.

If the Dems can't retake the House they should just leave him alone.
 
In order for Democrats to pick up the majority, they'd need to win all the seats Sabato has rated as a tossup or better for the Democrats (+19), plus 12 of the 21 seats he has as either Lean (7) or Likely R (14). No easy task.

Of course if they won all of them that's 227 seats for blue team and more than enough to pass immigration reform and free college and pre-K, yeehaw!
 

Makai

Member
Convention deal. Paul Ryan is the presidential nominee. Ted Cruz is Speaker of the House (he's eligible). Trump Organization is given $25 billion from the Social Security trust.
 
In order for Democrats to pick up the majority, they'd need to win all the seats Sabato has rated as a tossup or better for the Democrats (+19), plus 12 of the 21 seats he has as either Lean (7) or Likely R (14). No easy task.

Of course if they won all of them that's 227 seats for blue team and more than enough to pass immigration reform and free college and pre-K, yeehaw!

Not free college. Debt free college. :p

IF we take the house, I will lose my shit. I just don't see it happening. It's too gerrymandered. I wish I could be hopeful on that...or anything really.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Just because we're now talking about this (and I can't believe we're talking about the fucking House), here are where the filing deadlines have closed:

Alabama
Arkansas
Illinois
Texas
Ohio
Mississippi
Kentucky
West Virginia
New Mexico
Maryland
Indiana
Pennsylvania
Oregon
Idaho
Georgia
California
Montana
Maine
District of Columbia
Utah
Iowa
Nevada

Some of these states have good challengers (UT-4, MT-AL), some do not.

The next big one is Missouri, where they have 8 days to get legitimate challengers in suburban districts such as MO-2 and MO-6. So far, no MO races are on the "emerging races" list.
 

Magni

Member
I'm always thinking that people mean by the US is right is when it comes to the economic sense in comparison to the countries you listed. On social issues I fail to see it that way on some issues. The US seems center-left, but a little right when it comes to other issues.

That's a good point, I had a much longer post typed up but I trimmed it down to not derail the thread. I was mostly referring to foreign policy and economic policy, which is what impacts foreign countries the most. I'll certainly agree that US laws are more liberal on matters such as gay rights than Japanese laws for example. As for the populations themselves, I'll say that on that point, Americans are both more liberal and more conservative than the Japanese.

Rather than say those countries are more to the left than the US, it might be more accurate to say that those countries, on a US left-right scale, wish the US were more on the left.

People are shocked by the lack of healthcare, shocked by the gun culture and incessant mass shootings, shocked by Trump's immigration hate rhetoric (even here in Japan, which as has been said is not very open to immigration), and people worldwide are put off by American interventionism. I haven't seen it so much in Japan, but in Europe and Chile, American unconditional support for Israel is another sore point.

Well it depends on if you are referring to the populace or through law and the federal government.

That's another good point. I find the French to be more to the right than their government and laws are on points like immigration (full disclosure: I myself am also French, dual-citizen), and Chileans to be more to the left than their government and laws (I was living their during the end of the Piñera administration and remember people criticizing Bachelet during the election for being too centrist/a fake leftist). Granted, I lived in hippie Valparaíso with people in their mid-to-late twenties, so my perspective is inherently biased towards the left regarding that country's view of politics. Pinochet might be gone, but his legacy still has a huge impact there.
 
Not free college. Debt free college. :p

i wonder how exactly that's gonna work (because so far, about half of my debt has been incurred from the sheer fact that i need a roof to live under, utilities to use, and food to eat)

is the job requirement really gonna cover that for Hypothetical 18-Year-Old Me transplanted into 2017?
 

benjipwns

Banned
Now Jeb's got some good white guy spanish, better than Perez easily https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMHLn7SuSR4
He's had a ton of practice. Even by the time they were married (four years after meeting) Jeb's wife Columbia didn't speak English.

They originally met when Jeb was teaching English as a second language in Mexico.

She always wins my Political Machine 2016 matches.
President Infinity is way better. Though she's not in any of the scenarios.

Actually, the first Political Machine was better than 2008+ (which has basically just been roster updates since) in my opinion.
 
i wonder how exactly that's gonna work (because so far, about half of my debt has been incurred from the sheer fact that i need a roof to live under, utilities to use, and food to eat)

is the job requirement really gonna cover that for Hypothetical 18-Year-Old Me transplanted into 2017?

My understanding is that it's through a grant system to the colleges/states. Then, Pell Grants would be used to pay for room/board. I don't think the plan gets rid of loans for those who need them to pay for room/board. That's just my understanding, though.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Of course if they won all of them that's 227 seats for blue team and more than enough to pass immigration reform and free college and pre-K, yeehaw!
Hillary would just join hands with the GOP and kill it in the Senate. And instead triple the interest on everyone's college debt and sell it to Wall Street.
 
My understanding is that it's through a grant system to the colleges/states. Then, Pell Grants would be used to pay for room/board. I don't think the plan gets rid of loans for those who need them to pay for room/board. That's just my understanding, though.

huh, so Hypothetical Baby eBay Huckster could possibly be debt-free

(would definitely be easier if pell funding was expanded. like, massively so. but one step at a time.)

it'd definitely be fucked up if i had a kid already turning 18 in 2017, though, since i'm just now about to turn 25. did i TIME TRAVEL?
 
huh, so Hypothetical Baby eBay Huckster could possibly be debt-free

(would definitely be easier if pell funding was expanded. like, massively so. but one step at a time.)

Correct. In exchange for 10 hours of work per week, they could leave school with no debt at all. Community college is also 100% free under her plan. It's a good plan because it forces schools and states to get their costs under control. They can't keep charging anything they want and get away with it. It makes sure states have an incentive to not cut funding.
 
the more i hear about that plan, the more i like it.

(especially since the work requirement should serve as an enrollment control, on top of the other controls)
 
the more i hear about that plan, the more i like it.

(especially since the work requirement should serve as an enrollment control, on top of the other controls)

I know a lot of people hate the work requirement, but I like it. It makes the student be invested in this thing. It's something that the right can hold onto as a "bootstraps" argument. It can help some students gain employment experience they may not otherwise have. Everyone's got some skin in the game.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I know a lot of people hate the work requirement, but I like it. It makes the student be invested in this thing. It's something that the right can hold onto as a "bootstraps" argument. It can help some students gain employment experience they may not otherwise have. Everyone's got some skin in the game.

I think that so long as internships count toward the work requirement I have no problems with it.
 
I think that so long as internships count toward the work requirement I have no problems with it.

I agree with that. I'm not sure how it's setup currently, since the 10 hours of work is actually supposed to be paid. Since not all internships are paid, perhaps there's a work around. I mean, it seems simple enough. Just word it so that internships count.
 

benjipwns

Banned
He had previously endorsed Rubio.

Speaking of former Democrat Phil Gramm and Presidential bids. His 1996 one looked a lot like Jeb!'s, he raised a shit ton of money like two years before the election, spent all of it trying to ward off Bob Dole, then failed to win any states including the one where he was alone running against Alan Keyes and Pat Buchanan, came in 5th in Iowa and got nothing in NH.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Interesting that the piece doesn't mention he's the Gramm in Gramm–Leach–Bliley which supposedly repealed Glass-Steagall which supposedly collapsed the economy when all those financial institutions it wouldn't have applied to fucked up royally.

Which even more importantly Bill Clinton, husband of Hillary Clinton, signed into law.

CLINTON also signed CFMA and appointed Rubin, Greenspan and Levitt.
 
Interesting that the piece doesn't mention he's the Gramm in Gramm–Leach–Bliley which supposedly repealed Glass-Steagall which supposedly collapsed the economy when all those financial institutions it wouldn't have applied to fucked up royally.

Which even more importantly Bill Clinton, husband of Hillary Clinton, signed into law.

CLINTON also signed CFMA and appointed Rubin, Greenspan and Levitt.

Don't worry, Vermont Senator Bernard Sanders (I) is on the case.
 
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