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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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Gruco

Banned
No, they aren't. They should all have their voting rights taken away. Immediately. For at least one general election.

I'll start a change.org petition. (The most effective means of change.) No Bernie Sanders primary voters should be allowed to vote in the general election this November.

Has anyone even ever met a Bernie supporter? It seems likely that all of his votes are just election fraud.
 
MSNBC is really pushing the "Trump's rhetoric causes things like this" argument really hard right now. Not sure now is the best time to do that for a myriad of reasons.
 
I wanna step back and say it does kind of make me feel gross to evaluate terrorist incidents (and mass shootings) in so perfunctory a way, but what really strikes me as troubling is that these things are becoming so routine they're losing their ability to cause shock or impact things like they once did. Not just in the US either.
Paris excluded but Europe has always had a problem with terrorism. There were cafe bombings and other attacks regularly in the 70s and 80s from local and foreign groups
 

Trancos

Member
Has anyone even ever met a Bernie supporter? It seems likely that all of his votes are just election fraud.
They don't.
My prediction model using bump stickers counts during my commute is bullet proof. I have even controlled some variables like discarding old 2008 stickers.
 

Effect

Member
Ever notice how all the negative Hillary threads start a day before or day of a primary?

Yup. Really annoying and there always seems to be an effort to make sure it never leaves the first page as well. Have started to largely ignore the OT if I can on election days as a result. It would be one thing if there was an actual discussion but that they always happen to appear right before a group of primaries and caucus makes them extremely questionable when it comes to intent and purpose.
 

benjipwns

Banned
They don't.
My prediction model using bump stickers counts during my commute is bullet proof. I have even controlled some variables like discarding old 2008 stickers.
This reminds me, there was a car at my previous campus that had a Kucinich 2004 sticker still on it.

This was 2011.
 

Maledict

Member
Supposedly, Bernie's ground game in Arizona was late and terribly unorganized. The registration deadline in NY is the 25th and Bernie, according to Reddit, has no field offices.

I miss your old avatar BTW!

Re organisation, does Bernie actually have campaign offices in California and New York now? I remember reading that he didn't in California not that long ago, which given he is planning to win it by 100% seems fairly incongruous.

Feels like in some respects his campaign is similar to little Marco's - too caught up in modern tech solutions and ignoring the fact you still need boots on the ground to get campaigns running properly. telephone calls and facebanking can only get you so far.
 

benjipwns

Banned
To be fair, I don't think his campaign expected to last anywhere near this long to bother mapping that stuff out ahead of time. Winning Iowa and NH basically changed everything. And then when he got the second wind in Michigan.

Clinton has had the double advantage of setting up a general election game that also works for the primary. (It's also been a disadvantage.)
 

HylianTom

Banned
Yup. Really annoying and there always seems to be an effort to make sure it never leaves the first page as well. Have started to largely ignore the OT if I can on election days as a result. It would be one thing if there was an actual discussion but that they always happen to appear right before a group of primaries and caucus makes them extremely questionable when it comes to intent and purpose.
I hope folks realize: the whining will continue for the next 5-9 years.

It'll die-down as we approach election time, but the undercurrent will still be there. Gonna be really interesting/annoying/funny/etc to see the Internet not get its preferred President for the first time since 2004.
 
MSNBC is really pushing the "Trump's rhetoric causes things like this" argument really hard right now. Not sure now is the best time to do that for a myriad of reasons.
It isn't. The idea is there but attaching trump to it is stupid; there are plenty more politicians and people in Europe we can look to, or even ourselves and our handling of the Middle East for the current situation.

But we need to do something about Syria and stop the refugee crisis from the source. Millions of people shouldn't be flooding over the boarders of Europe, and allowing it to continue to happen isn't just bad because of the human rights issues and risks that come with displacement on this scale, but is also just ramping up tensions and giving political power to xenophobics and racists; which pushes Muslims out of the mainstream and sometimes into terrorist groups. One reason I want Hillary in is because I feel like she will do more to address this issue than Obama who has misread the situation entirely imo
 
Huh? Bush was the Internet's preferred President?

Sanders is this cycle's insurgent. He's just done one better than past insurgencies by capturing a portion of working class [male] whites as well as the ultraliberal and college kids.

Obama is the only internet insurgent candidate that's managed to win really. (And he was in reality an establishment candidate anyway, he just presents well to the young and/or ultraliberal.)
 
i wonder how exactly that's gonna work (because so far, about half of my debt has been incurred from the sheer fact that i need a roof to live under, utilities to use, and food to eat)

is the job requirement really gonna cover that for Hypothetical 18-Year-Old Me transplanted into 2017?
No. Doesn't matter anyway since it's not actually going to be anywhere in Hillary's actual presidency.
 

CCS

Banned
Nope. Deciding between Green and Donald "I think I am a nice person" Trump. If it's close, I may hold my nose and vote Donald "I think I am a nice person" Trump. If she's seriously behind, then I'll go Green with Stein.

Still voting for Russ, though.

You're a Marxist who's thinking of voting for Trump? That's an... interesting choice.
 
You're a Marxist who's thinking of voting for Trump? That's an... interesting choice.


cmWg8PA.gif
 

HylianTom

Banned
Huh? Bush was the Internet's preferred President?

Sanders is this cycle's insurgent. He's just done one better than past insurgencies by capturing a portion of working class [male] whites as well as the ultraliberal and college kids.

Obama is the only internet insurgent candidate that's managed to win really. (And he was in reality an establishment candidate anyway, he just presents well to the young and/or ultraliberal.)
Nah, I meant that the Internet didn't get its preferred president in 2004. (Not that Kerry seemed all that beloved, other than being Not Bush)

We've been spoiled over the past 8 years, having a President that's been relatively popular online.

Edit:
Been looking for the SNL Santa's Blue States sketch and can't find it anywhere online. Wanted to see the Dumbfuckistan map again.. boooo, NBC!
 
I just have to thank the Baby Jesus that this attack didn't occur in the US. It is the one thing that truly scares the hell out of me and an easy path forward for a Trump presidency. Even though a logical person would tell you the last person you would want is someone who will be the definition of "learning on the job" in Trump. We know all that goes out the window once fear kicks in.
 

CCS

Banned
I like how Cruz just specifically said halt the Syrian Muslim refugee program. He's going to push that Christians only line again.

Of all the European leaders to steal your foreign policy from, the Prime Minister of Hungary is an interesting choice.
 

Makai

Member
Huh? Bush was the Internet's preferred President?

Sanders is this cycle's insurgent. He's just done one better than past insurgencies by capturing a portion of working class [male] whites as well as the ultraliberal and college kids.

Obama is the only internet insurgent candidate that's managed to win really. (And he was in reality an establishment candidate anyway, he just presents well to the young and/or ultraliberal.)
You forgot Trump!
 
This is also literally the worst time for Cruz and Sanders to have a major international incident. Major foreign policy incident going into the last few months of primary isn't going to help them stay to their preferred message.
 
You're a Marxist who's thinking of voting for Trump? That's an... interesting choice.
Well, he might actually be better than Hillary, class-wise. I doubt that he'll be worse. He'll likely stop TPP, his SC picks will be interesting (and if Obama won't appoint a liberal, you know Hillary won't).

So with Trump, it's a matter of a 'least bad' option. Stein can't win. Any real Marxist can't win. Worst case scenario, maybe we see two parties on the right and liberals and potential socialists on the left realize that even without the excuse of a strong right party, Democrats won't rule against their corporate masters. That might be enough pressure for another party on the left.
 

Makai

Member
Who is an interesting Supreme Court judge? I strongly doubt Trump will follow through with his pledge to nominate Howard Stern.
 

dramatis

Member
So when reading an NYMag report, this was linked in said report.

Single Women Are Our Most Potent Political Force
While they are not often credited for it, single women’s changed circumstances are what’s driving a political agenda that seems to become more progressive every day. The practicalities of female life independent of marriage give rise to demands for pay equity, paid family leave, a higher minimum wage, universal pre-K, lowered college costs, more affordable health care, and broadly accessible reproductive rights; many of these are issues that have, for years, been considered too risky to be central to mainstream Democratic conversation, yet they are policies today supported by both Democratic candidates for president.
So far, any affinity single women may feel with Hillary Clinton is being trumped by the aspirationally progressive vision of Bernie Sanders. Young women — young single women, at least the ­predominantly white ones who have so far cast their votes — have broken for him in startling numbers in both the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. In New Hampshire, according to exit polls, Sanders beat Clinton by 11 points with women and by 26 points with single women. Some of this is attributable to the disheveled charm and righteous anger of the socialist senator, and some to Clinton’s difficulty running an inspiring campaign. But much of it may also have to do with the fact that single women — living their lives outside of the institution around which tax, housing, and social policies were designed — have a set of needs that has yet to be met by government. Ironically, Clinton has been in the weeds on some of these issues — health-care reform, children’s health insurance, early-childhood education — for much of her career. But perhaps because of that, she can seem less optimistic than her opponent: “I don’t think, politically, we could get it now,” said Clinton of paid leave just two years ago, a sign both of how improbable these policy changes have seemed until very recently and of her battle-scarred pragmatism. The question, in this year of the single woman, is whether the first truly plausible female presidential candidate can recognize how much her constituency has changed and capitalize on these changes, or if she will get overtaken by this growing group of independent women voters responding to more optimistic promises.
WHOA THERE TEDDY
These women had a hand in rewriting the Constitution via the 14th, 15th, 18th, 19th, and 21st Amendments. So great was this wave of change that in the early-to-mid-20th century, there was a cultural backlash, from the pathologizing of single life to the encouraging of early heterosexual pairing through “dating.” Even Teddy Roosevelt, as part of his campaign against “race suicide,” railed at single middle-class white women for failing to reproduce at high rates: “A race is worthless,” he proclaimed, “if women cease to breed freely.”
Yaaaaaaas women
Beyond Clinton, there is another generation of women politicians whose own lives have played out along new models. There’s Gillibrand, married in her mid-30s, who sat through a 13-hour Armed Services Committee hearing hours before delivering her son at age 41; Donna Edwards, a single mother currently running for the Senate in Maryland; Kamala Harris, married for the first time at 49 and running to fill Barbara Boxer’s Senate seat in California; Lucy Flores, running for the House in Nevada, single at 36 and open about the abortion she had as a teenager; Nanette Barragán, running for Congress in California, single; Zephyr Teachout, running for Congress in New York, single; two of EMILY’s List’s rising political stars, Georgia legislator Stacey Abrams, single, and Boston city councilwoman Ayanna Pressley, married at age 40. It doesn’t necessarily take a woman to push legislation that benefits single women, but these women, by sheer dint of personal experience, will have a better perspective on the new approaches to social policy that this new population of women requires.

It's a very long article, detailed about single women's effects in historical movements and their possible influence today.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
How is a sleazeball nut like Cruz running even with Hillary in a GE matchup? Incredibly scary.

Similar reason Sanders is running slightly ahead of Hillary in GE matchups.

Trump and Hillary are known entities. Cruz and Sanders, much less so.
 

Cat

Member
It's a very long article, detailed about single women's effects in historical movements and their possible influence today.

I read it sometime back since it was making the rounds on my Twitter feed and one particular person said it actually went beyond talking about white women. I even sent it to my mom though she might not set aside the time to read it, with a lot of other things keeping her busy. Anyway, I thought it was a worthwhile read too.
 

benjipwns

Banned
George McGovern: The Machine That Won in Wisconsin
The George McGovern field organization has become a legend. Gene Pokorny has been hailed as the "best young political organizer in the history of this country," and people have begun talking about the volunteers in tones usually reserved for the guys who were in the hills with Castro.

A bunch of beautiful, euphoric, slightly drunk, very young McGovern volunteers were having a completely informal victory party in a block-long two-story brick warehouse, formerly used to store toys. They had been living there for two weeks, sleeping on the linoleum floor of the cavernous rooms.

They had all worked in the Fourth District, the Polish South Side of Milwaukee, a section that even the McGovern staff crossed off as the inviolable turf of Muskie, Wallace and Humphrey. McGovern had not only won the district but beat Wallace by 8000 votes. It is a political miracle: the work the kids have done is nothing short of heroic. At the warehouse at 3:30 a.m., nine or 10 of them got up from a sleepy poker game and gathered around to talk. What they said should give you some idea of the nature of George McGovern's grass roots organization:

"Tell everybody we really love George McGovern," said a blonde girl.
A year and a half ago, George McGovern set out to be President of the United States of America with little money, no media, chronic five percent showing in the polls and a face that was recognizable to nobody but a handful of liberals and South Dakota farmers. His only prayer was to build a crack political organization. Last week, that organization made him the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. It was indisputably the best organization in the state of Wisconsin, and it moved one McGovern volunteer, a New York Teamsters boss, to marvel: "I'm not kidding. This is better than Tammany Hall."

"This is the old politics," says Joel Swerdlow, the 26-year-old who ran McGovern's operation in the north half of Milwaukee. "We have precinct captains, ward leaders, car captains, the whole bit. That's the only way you win. But instead of patronage bosses and sewer commissioners, we've got young people who work because they're interested in the issues."

Political organization is basically a matter of list-keeping. You canvass a state by foot and by phone to find out who is for you, who is against you and who is uncommitted. Once you have the list, you cross off the ones against you, barrage the uncommitted with pleas and information, and make sure your supporters get to the poll.

Not so long ago, the Party Organization, which kept the best list and had the patronage clout to keep the listees in line, could deliver an election. Today even Mayor Daley's fabled machine is showing signs of terminal breakdown, and if a candidate wants an organization he can count on he has to build it himself.

Muskie has made countless bungles; one of the earliest was his decision to depend entirely on the Party Organization to come through with the vote in the key Democratic city of Manchester, New Hampshire. The local organization turned out to be a group of incompetent hacks led by a mayor who had won by only 400 votes. "I wouldn't run for ward committee with the organization they have up there," said Providence Mayor Joseph A. Doorley, who was called in at the last moment to rescue votes for Muskie. Meanwhile, McGovern's organization ran a classic operation in Manchester, canvassing almost every precinct two times, and winning ethnic sections that no one believed they could capture. The McGovern organization was superior on both numbers and fervor.

"In some places," said a McGovern staffer, "people called us up and said, 'Look, I got two letters, I've had three people at my door and I've had eight phone calls. I'm for ya, leave me alone!'"
After the excellent showing in low-income districts in Manchester, the McGovern organization generals made a crucial decision; they decided that the main strategic aim of the campaign would be to prove that the bulk of their candidate's support actually came from working men, not from students and suburbanites. The McGovern forces decided that if they could win Wisconsin's working-class districts, such convention brokers as George Meany and Richard Daley would think twice about indulging their preference for Hubert Humphrey.

"I've always thought that the blue-collar vote had to be a source of his strength," said Frank Mankiewicz, McGovern's main strategist and formerly press secretary for Robert Kennedy. "It always seemed to me that McGovern — not as the anti-war candidate but as the 'change' candidate — would appeal more to Middle America than he would to any other group. They're the ones with the most to gain from change and they're the ones who get screwed by the way we do business in this country."
"There's only one thing that worries me about being out front," he said. "The hacks. When McCarthy took Wisconsin in '68, the hacks were getting on board before anyone knew what had happened and they were saying, 'OK, kids, the fun's over, we'll run it from here, get lost.' And the kids had just racked up 56 percent for McCarthy in this state. If it happens again this time, they can have the campaign. I'll just pack my bags and split."
 
Just read that Bill Clinton had a -17 net favorable rating when he took office. Hill is around the same ballpark. Something about the Clintons, maaan

(Trumplord is -33)
Merrick Garland isn't even getting a hearing this year, is he 😔
Would YOU give a hearing to someone with Demon's Souls boss name?
 

HylianTom

Banned
Amen.

Clinton gaffing it up, lord.
Yup. And yet again, the gaffe gets overshadowed by something bigger. Something horrific this time.

I'm wondering if her negatives will benefit from direct contrast with Trump as we get closer to showtime. Right now, they're each individually operating within their own brackets.. but their paths are going to cross more often over time, and voters are going to make comparisons. I don't think she'll get back above water, but I wouldn't be shocked if her margins improve slightly.
 
The terror attacks in Europe is going to shape the conversation, many people is going want solutions to keep them safe. I think Hillary and Trump stands to benefit from the discussions. Personally, with the rise of ISIS and tensions with Iran and SA, I doubt we will move on. I know Obama tried to stay clear of the ME to the best of his abilities, but Libya, the Arab Spring, ISIS, Iraq, and Iran made sure he can't ignore it. I know people want to abandon the region, but at this point it is going to be improbable.
 
After listening to Bill's 2012 speech again I don't know why he seemingly can't say anything to help Hillary on the campaign trail that isn't either petty, poorly worded or just ineffective.
 
Definitely very interested how the Belgium attacks shapes voters thoughts in regards to what is important etc. I'm assuming that the Belgium attacks will boost the profile of those that are seen having experience with Foregin Policy or those with a hateful attitude against Islam/Muslims.
 
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