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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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trumpwater.gif
Lol
 
Trump is kind of the perfect storm for a CA GOP primary. He is going to SLAY with Inland and Central Valley SoCal.

And one thing to note: the inland divide I am imagining really means about 20 miles in from the coast and on.
 
I mean, those are pretty huge differences. You might as well ask if WV coal miner republicans are all that different from Orange County, old money republicans.




While we're on that topic, I'm not so sure it's predictive. Inyo county, which borders Nevada, has a total population of 18,000 people (so ~9,000 democrats), goes reliably republican in presidential elections, and is 74% white.


Fun fact: it also has a population density of 2 people per square mile. Wyoming is 3x more densely populated.
I own property in inyo County and thus is the first thing I've ever learned about it lol.

Trumps gop appeal here is his business persona and tough on foreign policy rhetoric.

If kasich was viable I think he'd win the state but California won't vote for inevitable losers so trump will win easily.

Cruz shouldn't even bother here to be honest. Like new York, his kind doesn't play well among the gop here.
 
SoCal Republicans can be pretty extreme considering the state. Hunter (CA-50) is from SD and of the anti-immigrant variety. There is a small city in his district called Santee. It's nickname is Klan-tee. NorCal Republicans (they exist??) tend to not be as crazy.

Yeah, and just a bit inland of North County SD is home to a lot of white power people. I'd say the divide of coastal/inland is like 15-20 miles. It's not county by county at ALL.
 

CCS

Banned
I wonder what Sanders internal numbers were telling them because nothing about the current margin is that surprising.

I would be genuinely interested to see Sanders' internal numbers. I'd like to know whether they're deluded or simply putting on an act for their supporters.
 

pigeon

Banned
Can someone help me understand the Bernie support for the liberals in super republican states? Or is it really a white thing. Im really interested.

It's white people.

Hillary's explicitly running towards the Obama coalition, Bernie explicitly away from it. States that Obama lost because they were homogenously white are naturally not teeming with Obama coalition members.

Socialism may win the Democratic Party (I obviously hope it does), but not until it runs a candidate who can demonstrate an understanding of intersectionality.
 
Yeah, and just a bit inland of North County SD is home to a lot of white power people. I'd say the divide of coastal/inland is like 15-20 miles. It's not county by county at ALL.

Eh, depends on where you are. If you're heading east from Santa Monica you've gotta go like 100 miles inland before you hit "Basically Arizona".
 

pigeon

Banned
538 had a tidbit about Utah being a swingy state in the sense that it's dominated by one relatively uncommon demographic. Mormons are pretty socially reactionary, but Trump is a really poorly targeted candidate for them, since he's basically anti-religious and apparently disinterested in most religious reactionary policies.

Probably still not worth Hillary investing, but maybe we can pick up on the way.
 
Well, apart from a good carveout of the LA Basin (which I should have mentioned), its pretty spot-on i feel

Yeah, you're probably right. I chatted with this older couple once who live in Temecula and they were a type of people that just doesn't exist in LA. They kept calling LA "Hollyweird" and it annoyed me to no end.
 
538 had a tidbit about Utah being a swingy state in the sense that it's dominated by one relatively uncommon demographic. Mormons are pretty socially reactionary, but Trump is a really poorly targeted candidate for them, since he's basically anti-religious and apparently disinterested in most religious reactionary policies.

Probably still not worth Hillary investing, but maybe we can pick up on the way.

The results tonight definitely show that Trump has little support there. Even Kasich beat him. I think a lot of republicans will stay home with Trump as nominee.

Edit- sorry for double post
 
I got an interesting email from Democracy for America yesterday asking me to donate to Donna Edwards' campaign for senate. What was noteworthy was their wording, though: they talked about it in terms of "bringing the political revolution" to Maryland and contributing to "true progressives". It seems like there's definitely an effort to brand some politicians as Bernie Democrats or something to that effect.
I wrote them back and told them that I knew that she endorsed Hillary and that I don't contribute to fake liberals.
 

Wilsongt

Member
So Bernie only got a grand total of 5 more delegates than Hillary and Sanderites are going crazy.

Whatever helps you sleep at night, I guess.
 
It'll probably be a total gain of 10-12 delegates, once everything is allocated. Adding to that what he'll do this weekend, and he'll probably cut her lead down to 270 (or so). It'll probably get down to 225-250(ish) before New York.
 

CCS

Banned
It'll probably be a total gain of 10-12 delegates, once everything is allocated. Adding to that what he'll do this weekend, and he'll probably cut her lead down to 270 (or so). It'll probably get down to 225-250(ish) before New York.

That period when we have New York, Maryland, Connecticut and PA among others is going to be brutal. Any hope for Sanders dies there.
 
All my Bernie sat friends on FB are pretty quiet tonight. Only one thing about "PETITION FOR AZ VOTING IRREGULARITIES." It's been really muted since last Tuesday, though.
 

benjipwns

Banned
POLITICO has learned that in a surprise announcement, Jeb Bush will endorse Ted Cruz on Wednesday as an antidote to the "divisiveness and vulgarity" of Donald Trump, providing a badly needed boost to the Texas senator - but it's one that comes dangerously late in a game that Trump is dominating.

The endorsement comes 32 days after a beaten Bush dropped out of the GOP presidential race, and eight days since Sen. Marco Rubio abandoned his own quest after being rebuffed by Bush, his fellow Floridian and one-time mentor.

Bush says in a forthcoming statement: "Today, I am endorsing Ted Cruz for President ... Washington is broken, and the only way Republicans can hope to win back the White House and put our nation on a better path is to support a nominee who can articulate how conservative policies will help people rise up and reach their full potential."
have a fun, enjoy
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
have a fun, enjoy

Bush says in a forthcoming statement: "Today, I am endorsing Ted Cruz for President ... Washington is broken, and the only way Republicans can hope to win back the White House and put our nation on a better path is to support a nominee who can articulate how conservative policies will help people rise up and reach their full potential."

Cruz is this guy? Bwahaha
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Someone wake up Y2Kev

SMH gross. Why don't you go look at some exit polls from Nevada?

edit: Wow Hillary did badly in Utah and Idaho. This next string of caucuses is going to be annoying if she can't lower the margins a bit. Caucuses are really idiotic. Sad!
 

CCS

Banned
Today, some of the top posts on r/sandersforpresident in response to Bernie posting "It’s important we do not succumb to bigotry. We are fighting a terrorist organization killing innocent people. We are not fighting a religion." on Twitter:

Bernie has a real political opportunity to cut through political correctness and say what Obama and Clinton feel they can't.

There comes a point when you have to come face to face with the reality that the terrorism is directly tied with the religion...

If I started a religion today based around violence to all non believers, total suppression of women, and bigotry against gay people, would our society fight that religion?
Or would my religion get a free pass too?

I'm sure there has been alot of bigotry going around, but there is nothing wrong with calling out Islam for what it is -- the most dangerous religion on Earth. Even in so-called moderate Islamic nations there are norms that should make any western progressive (or conservative for that matter) disgusted.

This is quite possibly the most racist, sexist, and hateful religion in the world. I thought liberals were passionately against racist, sexism, and hatred? Yet why do they constantly defend Islam? You would think the left would be against such a terrible religion that hates against anyone who isn't exactly like them.
 
Today, some of the top posts on r/sandersforpresident in response to Bernie posting "It’s important we do not succumb to bigotry. We are fighting a terrorist organization killing innocent people. We are not fighting a religion." on Twitter:

That's fedora atheists for you.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
As if endorsements weren't worthless already, what was Jeb at before he dropped out? 2%? Like those 2% haven't moved on already.

Cheebo said:
Cruz would be way easier to beat in the fall honestly. This is good news

I don't want him anywhere near the nomination. Something weird happens and that guy is president? No. No. NO. I'd take Trump any day of the week before Cruz. The guy is a scumbag and has zero ability to work with others. Look at the guy who would be our nation's top foreign policy adviser. We'd be at war within days.
 
As if endorsements weren't worthless already, what was Jeb at before he dropped out? 2%? Like those 2% haven't moved on already.



I don't want him anywhere near the nomination. Something weird happens and that guy is president? No. No. NO. I'd take Trump any day of the week before Cruz. The guy is a scumbag and has zero ability to work with others. Look at the guy who would be our nation's top foreign policy adviser. We'd be at war within days.

If anything, Jeb endorsing Cruz hurts Cruz. The whole point of Cruz's appeal is that he's a different kind of republican from the ones that lost to Barry Hussein. His relative success is mostly due to the GOP thinking they just need to nominate a "true conservative" and then the country will come around to the GOP.
 
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