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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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Regarding College: getting a degree is becoming intrinsic to the human experience. It defines not only your income outcomes but also your personality, social circles, interests and etcetera (Unlike high school that is just "bottom basic knowledge every person should get to function in culture"). Of course everyone getting a degree would depress incomes, but thats another discussion. Point being that I think people should get the option to go for it if that's what they desire without drowning in debt.

i mean, that and a bachelor's degree would become "bottom basic knowledge every person should get to function in culture" alongside all the other things becoming intrinsic to master's programs
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Monmouth University National GOP

If Trump leads in July:
Unite behind the leader - 54%
Nominate someone else via contested convention - 34%

(Of Trump supporters) If Trump is not the nominee after leading into a contested convention:
Vote 3rd party or vote Hillary or not vote at all - 47%
Back the selected candidate - 43%

=======

Gooood. Goooooood.

Oh. YES.

As for Cruz, like 538 said yesterday, the remaining states in the primary aren't his prime voters. I don't see any way he ends up with more delegates than Trump.
 
Cruz is pretty much out of states near Texas and out of states full of Mormons so it's going to be a lot more difficult for him moving forward, definitely.

Anyway, I'm glad the GOPe is uniting behind a man as truly dangerous and unhinged and hateful as Ted Cruz. That won't backfire later on by showing Cruz to be someone "respectable" that establishment voters could support in 2020.
 
Monmouth University National GOP

If Trump leads in July:
Unite behind the leader - 54%
Nominate someone else via contested convention - 34%

(Of Trump supporters) If Trump is not the nominee after leading into a contested convention:
Vote 3rd party or vote Hillary or not vote at all - 47%
Back the selected candidate - 43%

=======

Gooood. Goooooood.

bu bu bu but the independents and all the people switching to republicans!!!!
 
Cruz is pretty much out of states near Texas and out of states full of Mormons so it's going to be a lot more difficult for him moving forward, definitely.

Anyway, I'm glad the GOPe is uniting behind a man as truly dangerous and unhinged and hateful as Ted Cruz. That won't backfire later on by showing Cruz to be someone "respectable" that establishment voters could support in 2020.

Talk radio in Utah this morning was filled with "I'm not sure I made the right choice last night, yeah I voted against Trump, but I wish I would have known about the Muslim Patrols comment before I voted for Cruz" lol the people here are fucking idiots.
 
Talk radio in Utah this morning was filled with "I'm not sure I made the right choice last night, yeah I voted against Trump, but I wish I would have known about the Muslim Patrols comment before I voted for Cruz" lol the people here are fucking idiots.

Kasich doing so poorly is weird, honestly. I expected the biggest anti-abortion warrior in America to do better in Utah.
 

PBY

Banned
Talk radio in Utah this morning was filled with "I'm not sure I made the right choice last night, yeah I voted against Trump, but I wish I would have known about the Muslim Patrols comment before I voted for Cruz" lol the people here are fucking idiots.

Cruz a massive piece of shit, news @ 11.
 

Owzers

Member
Talk radio in Utah this morning was filled with "I'm not sure I made the right choice last night, yeah I voted against Trump, but I wish I would have known about the Muslim Patrols comment before I voted for Cruz" lol the people here are fucking idiots.

Ted Cruz is the worst, Jeb Bush is constantly reminding us of the mess he is by endorsing this guy. People are rallying against Trump and this "never Trump" garbage is trying to frame it like Cruz is the acceptable responsible candidate.
 

ampere

Member
The caucus here in Boise last night is the largest in our country's history.(You'll need to open that link in incognito mode to get around the Statesman's paywall.)

Idaho is definitely feeling the Bern. I say this as someone with massive social anxiety issues, but caucuses are just not for me. I want the anonymity of voting for who I want to vote for. Who wants to show up and get shouted down by Bernie fans? Not me I guess.

Caucuses are bullshit for a number of reasons, and the social pressure aspect is definitely a big one. Gotta let people have their privacy when they vote.
 
Oh. YES.

As for Cruz, like 538 said yesterday, the remaining states in the primary aren't his prime voters. I don't see any way he ends up with more delegates than Trump.

It's pretty much impossible for Cruz to win more of the remaining delegates than Trump let alone catch up from being down 300 of them.
 

ampere

Member
No it isn't. Jesus Christ, what a ridiculous claim.

These college students are being silly (although I mean, not too surprising that a situation that requires soap and water to resolve is stressful for college freshmen), but candidates like Trump show up because of parties running directly on leveraging and increasing racism and fear for fifty years.

Blaming millenials for Trump is just about the worst thing I've seen in this thread, and I read all of Tesseract's posts.

Agree

College students overreacting to stuff didn't cause the rise of the Tea Party lol. College students barely even vote!
 
One day during the 2015 Legislature, Sharron Angle was visiting the building when a Hispanic man working for the Republican National Committee approached her.

After he introduced himself, Angle immediately asked him a question: “Are you legal?”

The man was stunned. “I was obviously shocked since I had never been asked that in my entire life - I was born in Miami,” the operative, who requested anonymity, told me. “Here I am, a Republican operative in Nevada, and she thinks the RNC hired someone illegal … Flabbergasted, I responded, ‘Yes, and I'm a veteran.’ Not to be outdone, she responds with, ‘Is that (being a vet) how you got your status?’”
Sharron Angle is still an awful person.
 
Early March: Hillary's wins in the South shouldn't count; those are all RED STATES that vote Republican in November!

Today: Bernie should be the nominee; look at the numbers he did in IDAHO and UTAH!
 

Bowdz

Member
Sam Wang seems to think it is incredibly unlikely that Trump does not get a majority of delegates before the convention. The great Wang is firm with his logic as his ideas explode from his mind in a truly volcanic eruption.
 

pigeon

Banned
The fact is that Clinton changing her position about healthcare is fishy and she hasn't really fleshed out how her road to UniHealth would be.
Universal healthcare and single payer do not mean the destruction of the private insurance companies. In fact, insurance companies can boom in countries with socialized healthcare cuz they can justify higher prices. I really don't understand what's her underlying motto with her change of heart.

I would agree that she hasn't been too in-depth on the topic. I think this is just her political realism telling her that we can't start arguing that Obamacare sucks and needs to be replaced after spending 8 years fighting to protect it from people saying that it sucks and needs to be replaced.

I honestly think that, post-Obamacare, it makes more sense to pursue a multiple-payer universal health care system. The more I learned about the Swiss system the more clear it became to me that Obamacare was designed to flow directly into that kind of structure. But I'm not sure it happens with a huge "health care revamp" bill again. I think we can get there incrementally off of Obamacare.

Regarding College: getting a degree is becoming intrinsic to the human experience. It defines not only your income outcomes but also your personality, social circles, interests and etcetera (Unlike high school that is just "bottom basic knowledge every person should get to function in culture"). Of course everyone getting a degree would depress incomes, but thats another discussion. Point being that I think people should get the option to go for it if that's what they desire without drowning in debt.

I don't think this is crazy, but, like, high school didn't use to be "basic functional knowledge." High school used to be the thing that defined your income outcomes, etc. and set you up for your job. College used to be a thing you went to if you specifically wanted a high-education job, the way that a Masters is now.

eBay Huckster outlined the basic foundation of my thought here -- if we make college free, does that lead to a degradation of college education? Does it just become the new high school? Does everybody need a Masters to succeed?

I think there's a good counterargument here that there were actually fundamental changes in our society that necessitate more education. But I worry a little that this strategy is still neglecting our responsibility to make education useful throughout the process. Could we be more effective by just focusing on making high school better at preparing you for life? (My opinion here is probably colored since I'm a college dropout with a professional job who got that at least partially because I went to a very fancy private high school.)
 

Crocodile

Member
I like how so many establishment Republicans are/were quick to bash Trump for his Muslim ban (though it was done pretty weakly) yet are fine endorsing a guy who JUST called for something akin to the Gestapo-lite to run through Muslim neighborhoods. The current Republican party is so morally bankrupt on a national level I'm just left incredulous.

"but but why don't minorities like us?"

It seems like the Sanders campaign didn't understand that the deadline for voter registration in the Arizona primary had long passed. They were registering people to vote over the weekend telling them they could vote in the primary. Nope.

IF this is true than what a goddamn mess. But no, its never the Sanders campaign that is at fault, clearly it must have been rigged against him *roll eyes*

1,039 people participated in my home county (Bonneville)'s caucus! Yay?

The county where my parents live had a whopping 29 people participate.

Also there was a county in Idaho where 4 people participated and they all voted Bernie.

"Caucuses were a mistake. They are nothing but trash" - Hayao Miyazaki

No but seriously, everything I hear about caucuses make them sound like abominations. Down ballot races are one thing because info is so limited its often hard to inform yourself. For bigger offices, like POTUS, you should be well versed enough and done enough research in the candidates to know exactly who you are voting for and why. Why the fuck do I want to have a "debate" (more likely a screaming match with several people at once who are likely to be more ignorant on the subject than myself) to cast my vote?
 

Holmes

Member
Sam Wang seems to think it is incredibly unlikely that Trump does not get a majority of delegates before the convention. The great Wang is firm with his logic as his ideas explode from his mind in a truly volcanic eruption.
You know I'm all about the great Wang.
 
Why did I go on Reddit? A summation:

The South doesn't count. Period.
AA voters don't count.
Latino voters don't count.
Early voting is FRAUD and shouldn't count
Red States that aren't Oklahoma, Kansas, Utah and Idaho don't count.
Bernie is winning 100% of the Delegates that are pledged to him, ergo he wins.
Hillary is basically Hitler, Satan and the Burger King all rolled into one.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Why did I go on Reddit? A summation:

The South doesn't count. Period.
AA voters don't count.
Latino voters don't count.
Early voting is FRAUD and shouldn't count
Red States that aren't Oklahoma, Kansas, Utah and Idaho don't count.
Bernie is winning 100% of the Delegates that are pledged to him, ergo he wins.
Hillary is basically Hitler, Satan and the Burger King all rolled into one.
Hillary is the burger QUEEN
 

Slacker

Member
Cruz makes me fucking gag. He's just gross, and I can't put my finger on why.

He's just a turd in general. If he were born 20 years later he'd be one of those little shitheads doing fake prank videos on Youtube.

My favorite story about The Canadian is an older one: When asked what kind of music he likes, he said:

"Music is interesting.I grew up listening to classic rock, and I'll tell you sort of an odd story: My music taste changed on 9/11. And it's very strange. I actually intellectually find this very curious. But on 9/11, I didn't like how rock music responded. And country music collectively, the way they responded, it resonated with me.And I have to say, it just is a gut-level. I had an emotional reaction that says, these are my people. So ever since 2001, I listen to country music. But I'm an odd country music fan, because I didn't listen to it prior to 2001."

That's right folks, he didn't like how classic rock responded to 9/11. I asked classic rock for a comment but they told me they don't have a comment about 9/11 because they live 40 years ago.
 
i just wasted 3 minutes of my life i can never get back. Thanks

Are you kidding? I clicked on that link looking for world class entertainment, and I got it in spades.

The way the author actually argues that an early vote advantage is a sign of weakness is priceless, especially given that the argument is pure conjecture as to the meaning of the results. I enjoyed the way the author implied that early votes were somehow less legitimate than votes on election day itself. I also had fun imagining the article the author would write if Sanders was winning the early vote and Clinton was winning on election day ("These results are confirmation that Bernie has the more enthusiastic and energized voters... Superdelegates need to ask themselves if they can afford to pass over the campaign with the organizational know-how to get voters to commit early."). I had a nice chuckle at the idea that the results from Arizona should have been reported in such a way that the election would be regarded as a "genuine nail-biter" when Clinton won by a large margin (at this point NYT has 99% reporting and her margin is over 70K votes). Indeed, the implication that results should be reported by the state with the media narrative in mind is good for a laugh on its own.

Then there's the parts where the author goes past conjecture into outright falsehoods. How could you not laugh when he claims that "Clinton’s margins of victory were originally believed to be 25 points in Missouri, 30 points in Illinois, and 30 points in Ohio" when no media source was reporting any such thing? Or when he claims that Clinton's lead is 5 points nationally without disclaiming that this is based on taking the poll that shows the smallest margin among those in the field in March (aggregates have the lead around 10)? The best part is actually writing the sentence that said 5 point margin is "just a hair from being a statistical tie, given the margin of error." That right there is one of the funniest things written about polling since the days of unskewing.

And who can resist the entertainment value of the author's assertion that the job of the superdelegates is "supporting whichever candidate has the best chance of winning in November" when just a month ago we were hearing how terrible it would be if they ignored the will of the people and supported Clinton even if Sanders won the primaries? The use of general election polling as though it has any predictive value this far out is a classic that still brings a smile to my face.

That link was everything I could have hoped it would be.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I would agree that she hasn't been too in-depth on the topic. I think this is just her political realism telling her that we can't start arguing that Obamacare sucks and needs to be replaced after spending 8 years fighting to protect it from people saying that it sucks and needs to be replaced.

I honestly think that, post-Obamacare, it makes more sense to pursue a multiple-payer universal health care system. The more I learned about the Swiss system the more clear it became to me that Obamacare was designed to flow directly into that kind of structure. But I'm not sure it happens with a huge "health care revamp" bill again. I think we can get there incrementally off of Obamacare.

This is similar to how I read it, only with the option to also transfer to single payer if we so wished (a public option being the base for that). Really, there's a few ways the ACA can naturally evolve from where it is right now. That's why it never made much sense to just tear it down and start over, it's a framework we can build on that could potentially support any kind of universal healthcare.

IF this is true than what a goddamn mess. But no, its never the Sanders campaign that is at fault, clearly it must have been rigged against him *roll eyes*

Pretty much what I was thinking when I read it. How the hell do you not know the registration deadlines for the primary you are running in?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 41m41 minutes ago Washington, DC
@YeaYouRite you're missing the point. she does worse in states with 1) conservative reg Dems; 2) rules that mean they vote in D primaries

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 53m53 minutes ago Washington, DC
@YeaYouRite but the few closed contests that force conservatives into the Dem process, like Oklahoma, really help him

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 54m54 minutes ago Washington, DC
It's probably a penalty in western PA, too, but the variable I'm using isn't capturing it there. Need to switch to obama pct / registered D

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 57m57 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted John L Garzon
Closed/semi-closed primaries is a huge *penalty* for Clinton, where cons still reg D. See: OK/western NC/north FL

hmm
 

Gruco

Banned
Why did I go on Reddit? A summation:

The South doesn't count. Period.
AA voters don't count.
Latino voters don't count.
Early voting is FRAUD and shouldn't count
Red States that aren't Oklahoma, Kansas, Utah and Idaho don't count.
Bernie is winning 100% of the Delegates that are pledged to him, ergo he wins.
Hillary is basically Hitler, Satan and the Burger King all rolled into one.

You have to understand the basic tautology. Bernie Sander's voters are good and well informed. Clinton voters are low information voters. There is literally no reason other than ignorance to vote Clinton.

As a result, election day votes are more informed than early votes. Voters in states where Bernie uses more ads are better informed. Caucus goers are better informed. White people are better informed. Southerners are poorly informed that's why they vote Republican in the general. Retroactive momentum is real because Hillary voters in Iowa regret their decisions. All instances of logical inconsistency are just better information winning the day.

Also there's fraud.

Anyway, this is all a lot easier than challenging your own world view.

On some level I feel bad for Bernie fans. I can understand the kind of passionate desperation which comes from feeling/wanting something so much and having to accept that your bubble isn't the world. I felt it myself in 2004. I definitely remember dabbling in conspiracy theories in the immediate aftermath, at least for a couple days.

But then, it's the inability for Bernie voters to accept the fact that, hey, shit, everything you believe as self evident might actually be unpopular or even wrong, that makes them so horrible.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 1h1 hour ago Washington, DC
Actually, Indiana is a hair closer in this estimate: Clinton 50.2-Sanders 49.8

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 1h1 hour ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Matt McDermott
Yeah, this has Rhode Island at Sanders 50.3-Clinton 49.7

hmm
 
Yeah, the conventional wisdom that open primaries help Trump/Bernie isn't always true. A lot of it is regional, places with a lot of dixiecrats or conservatives registered as Democrats are favorable to Bernie when it is closed. And Trump's two biggest victories have come in closed contests.
 
I mean, I was there in a way in 2008, although I didn't not want Obama, if that makes sense. I do not want Sanders. I've gone from liking the guy well enough to pretty much passive loathing. I get wanting your horse to win, but perhaps I lack the idealism to separate hopes and rainbows from reality.
 
The Daily Courier (trusted local news leader for Prescott, Arizona and surrounding counties since 1882) reported yesterday their exit poll results, for Prescott, Prescott Valley (population ~40k, in Yavapai county), which showed Trump leading 50 / 33 / 8 (against Cruz and Kasich).

And here are the actual results (from CNN), which closely match the exit poll:

NQv34Pv.jpg


Now, on the Democratic side, the Courier reported "Democrats in both locations were trending much more strongly for Sen. Bernie Sanders", with a 62 / 37 vote split.

Any yet, somehow Bernie lost by some margin:

GZ8OMNY.jpg


I smell a decomposing rat here, and it's making me feel very uneasy...

Debbie (the Sane Progressive) has been doing a great job highlighting this issue, including in her latest video, and perhaps now Bernie's campaign team might actually start defending our votes: Bernie Sanders Must Contest Arizona & Stop Allowing the Theft Of Democratic Primary
 
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