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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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Holmes

Member
Those 46,000 Dems that switched over to the GOP probably would've voted for Sanders or neither as a protest vote in a closed primary.
 

Holmes

Member
Daniel B, use your brain for once. About 80% of the vote in Arizona last night was from early/absentee voting. It's entirely possible that Sanders carried the election day in-person vote, but it was so insignificant that it hardly made a difference in the final tally.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Daniel B·;199017026 said:

Exit polls can be wrong dude, it happens.

Daniel B, use your brain for once. About 80% of the vote in Arizona last night was from early/absentee voting. It's entirely possible that Sanders carried the election day in-person vote, but it was so insignificant that it hardly made a difference in the final tally.

You're making too much sense dude.
 

Zornack

Member
Daniel B·;199017026 said:
The Daily Courier (trusted local news leader for Prescott, Arizona and surrounding counties since 1882) reported yesterday their exit poll results, for Prescott, Prescott Valley (population ~40k, in Yavapai county), which showed Trump leading 50 / 33 / 8 (against Cruz and Kasich).

And here are the actual results (from CNN), which closely match the exit poll:

NQv34Pv.jpg


Now, on the Democratic side, the Courier reported "Democrats in both locations were trending much more strongly for Sen. Bernie Sanders", with a 62 / 37 vote split.

Any yet, somehow Bernie lost by some margin:

GZ8OMNY.jpg


I smell a decomposing rat here, and it's making me feel very uneasy...

Debbie (the Sane Progressive) has been doing a great job highlighting this issue, including in her latest video, and perhaps now Bernie's campaign team might actually start defending our votes: Bernie Sanders Must Contest Arizona & Stop Allowing the Theft Of Democratic Primary

Your numbers are wrong. Exit polls had Cruz winning but Trump ended up winning.

"Ted Cruz of Texas leading businessman Donald Trump 50 percent to 33 percent overall, with Ohio Gov. John Kasich garnering just 8 percent among voters polled."
 

jonjonaug

Member
Yeah this isn't fraud or malevolence on the part of the DNC or Clinton's campaign. Reports of 4-6 hour long wait times and problems with provisional ballots do make me worry a lot about the general election though. Feels like a test drive for voter supression tactics.
 
Your numbers are wrong. Exit polls had Cruz winning but Trump ended up winning.

"Ted Cruz of Texas leading businessman Donald Trump 50 percent to 33 percent overall, with Ohio Gov. John Kasich garnering just 8 percent among voters polled."
Facts must not get in the way of the narrative. FRAUD! Early voting! Red States! Quarter Pounder with Cheese!
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Yeah this isn't fraud or malevolence on the part of the DNC or Clinton's campaign. Reports of 4-6 hour long wait times and problems with provisional ballots do make me worry a lot about the general election though. Feels like a test drive for voter supression tactics.

Exactly. Especially in Maricopa.
 

Holmes

Member
It was cute at first but it's gotten really annoying to see these true believers rush to make a change.org petition every time Clinton wins a primary.
 

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Typed on a goddamn PS3 controller. It breaks my mind every time I imagine having to do that and include links and pictures. This is coming from a PS3 browser vet from back in the day when it was my primary porn machine.
 
I would agree that she hasn't been too in-depth on the topic. I think this is just her political realism telling her that we can't start arguing that Obamacare sucks and needs to be replaced after spending 8 years fighting to protect it from people saying that it sucks and needs to be replaced.

I honestly think that, post-Obamacare, it makes more sense to pursue a multiple-payer universal health care system. The more I learned about the Swiss system the more clear it became to me that Obamacare was designed to flow directly into that kind of structure. But I'm not sure it happens with a huge "health care revamp" bill again. I think we can get there incrementally off of Obamacare.



I don't think this is crazy, but, like, high school didn't use to be "basic functional knowledge." High school used to be the thing that defined your income outcomes, etc. and set you up for your job. College used to be a thing you went to if you specifically wanted a high-education job, the way that a Masters is now.

eBay Huckster outlined the basic foundation of my thought here -- if we make college free, does that lead to a degradation of college education? Does it just become the new high school? Does everybody need a Masters to succeed?

I think there's a good counterargument here that there were actually fundamental changes in our society that necessitate more education. But I worry a little that this strategy is still neglecting our responsibility to make education useful throughout the process. Could we be more effective by just focusing on making high school better at preparing you for life? (My opinion here is probably colored since I'm a college dropout with a professional job who got that at least partially because I went to a very fancy private high school.)
Price regulations would go a farway to getting us to a good place were care is actually affordable.
 
Yeah this isn't fraud or malevolence on the part of the DNC or Clinton's campaign. Reports of 4-6 hour long wait times and problems with provisional ballots do make me worry a lot about the general election though. Feels like a test drive for voter supression tactics.

At least the Republican voters are pissed about it too. It will get sorted for the general.
 
Your numbers are wrong. Exit polls had Cruz winning but Trump ended up winning.

"Ted Cruz of Texas leading businessman Donald Trump 50 percent to 33 percent overall, with Ohio Gov. John Kasich garnering just 8 percent among voters polled."

That's a big unintentional "Oops" (on the GOP side), but not a bad way to bring attention to the issue ;).
 

pigeon

Banned
Price regulations would go a farway to getting us to a good place were care is actually affordable.

I was actually hopeful that the insurance price regulations would be doing that already, but it's hard to judge their effectiveness. I guess we'll need to wait a few years to get a better view of how that's working.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I was actually hopeful that the insurance price regulations would be doing that already, but it's hard to judge their effectiveness. I guess we'll need to wait a few years to get a better view of how that's working.

Something like a public option would also help with pricing, it would force insurers to lower prices or be muscled out of the market.
 

Cerium

Member
Daniel B, use your brain for once. About 80% of the vote in Arizona last night was from early/absentee voting. It's entirely possible that Sanders carried the election day in-person vote, but it was so insignificant that it hardly made a difference in the final tally.

Anytime Daniel B posts something stupid just ask him about climate change.
 

Armaros

Member
Didn't you hear? Any scrap of polling or voting that favors sanders is the lords gospel, but whatever favors Clinton is the product of low information voters, fraud, or black people.

People in places are still using the NV entrance polls as evidence Sanders has a chance with Latinos.

Ignoring Arizona, Texas, Florida etc
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Sam Wang seems to think it is incredibly unlikely that Trump does not get a majority of delegates before the convention. The great Wang is firm with his logic as his ideas explode from his mind in a truly volcanic eruption.

You went in a little hard there.
 

pigeon

Banned
You got this Kasich. You are the ultimate illogical spoiler candidate.

Kasich is perhaps the best example this election season of why politicians who believe things are terrible problems. If Kasich were just a spineless panderer the party wouldn't be in this situation!

This November, do what's right for your country and vote for a cardboard cutout of Barack Obama making a funny hand gesture to be the next President of the United States.
 
Yeah this isn't fraud or malevolence on the part of the DNC or Clinton's campaign. Reports of 4-6 hour long wait times and problems with provisional ballots do make me worry a lot about the general election though. Feels like a test drive for voter supression tactics.

That's the funny part of the DNC - conspiracy theory. Somehow the DNC has good enough foresight to have seen that at this point in time, Sanders (who as he likes to remind us was in single digits when all this stuff was being set up and decided) would be a formidable opponent that needed to be shut down.
 

Patrick Klepek

furiously molesting tim burton
It feels like my entire Facebook feed has become hardcore Bernie fans posting conspiracy theories about Arizona voting. It's kinda shocking how much this primary has turned some people in to Fox News-level tinfoil hatters.
 
I don't think this is crazy, but, like, high school didn't use to be "basic functional knowledge." High school used to be the thing that defined your income outcomes, etc. and set you up for your job. College used to be a thing you went to if you specifically wanted a high-education job, the way that a Masters is now.

eBay Huckster outlined the basic foundation of my thought here -- if we make college free, does that lead to a degradation of college education? Does it just become the new high school? Does everybody need a Masters to succeed?

This should be easily answerable by looking at countries that have had free public superior education for a while.

In the case of Brazil, i can forward that... not really, no. What continues mattering most is where you've gone to and the people you've met. Masters and PhD's are only relevant for academia, and, (highly anecdotal) if my friends that work at Big Companies are to be believed, flat-out hostilized during the recruitment process.

But let us turn the argument towards another direction: is a more educated population inherently a good thing? I am inclined to believe so. Key word being inclined. In which case, even if it leads to a degradation of the prestige college educations have, it should be pursued. Especially when you factor that your population, in a global economy, will have to compete with globetrotters benefiting from such systems.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
YOUR NOT WINNING NEW YORK!!!!!

If he follows up his Tuesday wins in Idaho and Utah with a wide victory in Washington state on Saturday, any hope he has of catching Clinton runs through Wisconsin on April 5, a large state with favorable conditions for the underdog. Then comes the delegate-packed April 19 New York primary — where Sanders and his aides believe they can surprise Clinton in her home state. It’s a bit of a stretch, but a win there fueled by young progressives would go a long way toward undermining the notion of Clinton’s inevitability, his team believes, resulting in a fundamental rethinking of the race from pundits and Democrats alike.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/can-bernie-sanders-still-win-2016-221137#ixzz43kigoEDr

Taking nothing for granted, the Clinton campaign is already actively working to deny him even that long shot path by taking advantage of the primary’s proportional delegate scheme. Organizing and sending the candidate, her husband, and her daughter into states like Washington, the Brooklyn-based campaign team is aiming to cut down on his delegate margin at every turn.
In Alaska, for example — a state Sanders is likely to win — Clinton has opened an Anchorage headquarters and recently unveiled a slate of high-profile endorsements. In Hawaii, her team has two offices, television ads on the air, and has organized with Sen. Mazie Hirono, fighting back against the work done by top Sanders surrogate Rep. Tulsi Gabbard.
Such efforts, they believe, will render Sanders’ long-term play for New York and California moot, since his attempts to win by large margins there may not be enough to put him over the top if he can’t make incremental gains in smaller states like Hawaii in the meantime. As it currently stands, Sanders needs to considerably outperform current projections in other large states like Pennsylvania in order to win, according to Democratic and independent analysts.
 

Slacker

Member
I wasn't around when the story broke, but I assume we all had a sensible chuckle at the fact that Sarah Palin is going to be a TV judge? I guess it makes sense, those people make a lot of money.

Whenever I want to feel sad, I look back at the 2008 election results and ruminate over the fact that almost 46% of voters in this country wanted her to be a 73-year-old's heartbeat away from being President Palin.
 

Holmes

Member
Yeah, I'm seeing a lot of claims from Sanders people that they're going to win (or do "very well" - which is their excuse to move the goalpost) in New York. Get real. Sanders lost a closed primary last night that was about 80% white by 18%. He won't do any better in a closed primary that is a lot less white and just so happens to be his opponent's home state. Sorry.

Also if Cruz loses Wisconsin and Trump wins most or all of NY's delegates, he will be mathematically eliminated.
 
Daniel B·;199017026 said:
The Daily Courier (trusted local news leader for Prescott, Arizona and surrounding counties since 1882) reported yesterday their exit poll results, for Prescott, Prescott Valley (population ~40k, in Yavapai county), which showed Trump leading 50 / 33 / 8 (against Cruz and Kasich).

And here are the actual results (from CNN), which closely match the exit poll:

NQv34Pv.jpg


Now, on the Democratic side, the Courier reported "Democrats in both locations were trending much more strongly for Sen. Bernie Sanders", with a 62 / 37 vote split.

Any yet, somehow Bernie lost by some margin:

GZ8OMNY.jpg


I smell a decomposing rat here, and it's making me feel very uneasy...

Debbie (the Sane Progressive) has been doing a great job highlighting this issue, including in her latest video, and perhaps now Bernie's campaign team might actually start defending our votes: Bernie Sanders Must Contest Arizona & Stop Allowing the Theft Of Democratic Primary

Is it 2004 all over again?
 
So, Arizona is covered (or, I guess, was covered) by Section 5 in the VRA. Is it possible that this whole fiasco could have been avoided had SCOTUS not struck that part down?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs

A bit of a stretch? That's being kind, isn't it?

Yeah, I'm seeing a lot of claims from Sanders people that they're going to win (or do "very well" - which is their excuse to move the goalpost) in New York. Get real. Sanders lost a closed primary last night that was about 80% white by 18%. He won't do any better in a closed primary that is a lot less white and just so happens to be his opponent's home state. Sorry.

It's just delusion at this point. It has no basis in the world we live in.
 

gcubed

Member
Yeah, I'm seeing a lot of claims from Sanders people that they're going to win (or do "very well" - which is their excuse to move the goalpost) in New York. Get real. Sanders lost a closed primary last night that was about 80% white by 18%. He won't do any better in a closed primary that is a lot less white and just so happens to be his opponent's home state. Sorry.

Also if Cruz loses Wisconsin and Trump wins most or all of NY's delegates, he will be mathematically eliminated.

and somehow his hatred of the financial sector is going to in turn make one of the largest financial sectors in the world vote for him. (Carry over to NJ, which in no way will go to him either)
 
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