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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Macho Madness said:
Somehow my Twitter timeline has been devoid of Arizona fraud garbage but instead is all about making fun of this tweet: https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/712712604276428800

People are weird.

I'm beginning to think Sanders has done more harm than good. My timeline went from "Yeah I'll probably vote for her" to "She's corrupt and terrible" in a year. Mostly because they're not getting Sanders.
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Doesn't she realize the only plan for defeating ISIS is voting against the Iraqi War in 2002?

And yeah I agree. This is exactly why I didn't board the Bernie hype train the same way many of his supporters did - because when you start deluding yourself into thinking he can pull it off, you get pissed when he doesn't.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The Lamonster said:
Very good point.

So what is Cruz's path to victory? Does he even have a chance to get enough delegates at this point?
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Not at this point unless something drastically changes. The lack of caucuses is going to crush him in the upcoming primaries.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Doesn't she realize the only plan for defeating ISIS is voting against the Iraqi War in 2002?

And yeah I agree. This is exactly why I didn't board the Bernie hype train the same way many of his supporters did - because when you start deluding yourself into thinking he can pull it off, you get pissed when he doesn't.
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Meanwhile now all S4P can talk about is fraud fraud fraud: https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersFor...t/new_york_check_your_voter_registration_few/

So now New York doesn't matter, just so you know. Also the DNC is corrupt.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Y2Kev said:
Why would Cruz be doing well in Wisconsin?
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Apologies for this Wisconsin rant.

This state has 3 general blocks of Republican voters that match up to the candidates pretty well and they're nice and separated out. There's the "I got mine, fuck you because I'm a Rich Bastard and I love Jesus" type outside Milwaukee that should be for Cruz, there's the low information voter type that's in the northeast/Green Bay region that should be for Trump, and the very traditional establishment type in the southeastern quadrant (more rural and blue collar, ex-democrats) that should be for Kasich. Walker won 3 elections here because he was able to neatly unite all those factions.

The only county that matters for Republicans is Waukesha (Milwaukee suburbs).

Even I'm a bit surprised on the Democratic side. There are 3 neat categories of Democrats here, too! The lower-income and minority population of Milwaukee proper, the super-duper-mega-liberal socialist bastion of Madison, and then your more stereotypical "midwest blue" democrats in more rural areas in the western half of the state, basically the mirror image of the Green Bay conservative types.

Milwaukee will be heavy Clinton. The more rural areas, too, probably. Madison is the type of place you'd expect an 80-20 split of Sanders to Clinton, but many of us are pragmatic liberals and know Sanders can't deliver on anything. We much like the abstract concept that is Sanders (being the bunch of entitled, educated Whites we are), but the actual thought of him governing is terrifying. Huge college campus, though. Madison is a strange place. If we were bigger we'd make a claim at Austin's weirdness championship title.
 
B

BanGy.nz

Banned
Tesseract said:
Clinton steals Bernie's ideas, rides the coattails of others

Sad!
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Wall street and campaign finance reform have been part of the democratic platform longer than Bernie has been a party member.

Bernie steals ideas and rides the coattail of the democratic party.
Sad :(
pls post more West Wing gifs and less horrible Trump monster face gifs.
 
C

Chaos2Frozen

Member
Slayven said:
UqaqFZg.jpg
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If Bernie gets to call in John Cena, it's only fair that Hillary has The Rock Obama.
 
K

kmag

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Better hope Kasich doesn't get the nomination somehow. He has been leading both Dems in every single poll I've seen in the last month.
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Kasich is largely unknown nationally (forget his prior history in Washington, the public has) and has been painted as the moderate in a GOP race contested now by monsters. So he's polling high, but Kasich isn't a moderate and wouldn't survive the spotlight being put on him for any length of time.
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
Another reason why I think Cruz will take Wisconsin:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/trump-cruz-kasich-western-primaries-221114#ixzz43lHMH6An



Cruz's organization is just so far superior to Trump's. This isn't Super Tuesday where you're competing in many states, this is Iowa all over again, albeit without a caucus.
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It's actually more like South Carolina: WTA/M, about 2 weeks to campaign, and it's an open primary, not a closed caucus.

Oh, except it's not in the South, so advantage Trump.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Mama seltzer embarrassed herself by calling Iowa for trump.

I wonder if this would be over if trump swept the first four states?
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
kmag said:
Kasich is largely unknown nationally (forget his prior history in Washington, the public has) and has been painted as the moderate in a GOP race contested now by monsters. So he's polling high, but Kasich isn't a moderate and wouldn't survive the spotlight being put on him for any length of time.
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One thing I think could hurt Kasich, in particular against Clinton, would be his temper. Women seem especially likely to set him off.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
ivysaur12 said:
HELP MY BONER I KNOW GE POLLS BUT
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crosstabs

eyeballing this right now:

favorable trends vs their last poll in November:

Clinton +2 (was -11, now -9), Trump -12 (was -27, now -39), Democratic Party +6 (was +2, now +8), Republican Party -9 (was -18, now -27), Congress +3 (was -35, now -32)

Kasich is dooming the party to a Trump candidacy, exactly as keikaku:

Trump is 48-44 vs Lyin' Ted, but 51-43 against Anus Mouth

this may be a weird sample:

2012 "who'd you vote for" numbers are Obama +14 when the actual margin was +4

(that last one's really the only thing glaring about its internals, aside from the fact that we're still about 230 days out
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Y2Kev said:
Mama seltzer embarrassed herself by calling Iowa for trump.

I wonder if this would be over if trump swept the first four states?
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No, it'd still go down until the moment Trump gets 1237. He is such a repudiation of the establishment that they'd be moving goalposts and trying to undermine him even if he'd swept the first four.
 
P

Paskil

Member
That Emerson poll is garbage if for no other reason than there is nothing there for Feingold vs. Johnson. Guess we have to wait for the Marquette poll.
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
Holmes said:
Advantage why? The South was Trump's best region. He swept it.
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The South is very conservative which favors Cruz. The north will be better for Trump.

Take a look at all the states that border Wisconsin:

Michigan - Trump won big
Illinois - Trump won big
Minnesota - Netiher Trump nor Cruz won so who cares
Iowa - Trump came in a very strong second, and frankly, if it weren't for Cruz's dishonest campaigning he probably would have won

So geographically speaking, Wisconsin is almost tailor-made for Trump.
 
C

CCS

Banned
adam387 said:
Y'all trying to say something about my Christianity? You can't believe everything you read on the moon's room walls. Okay?

Hillary wins Wisconsin and I'm going to go full on slut mode. Ain't even sorry about it.
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Hillary wins Wisconsin and I will do cartwheels down the street.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Again, Trump won the south. There are lots of racists to appeal to.

What favours Cruz and hurts Trump regardless of geography is the need for a ground organisation.
 
H

Holmes

Member
vicissitudes said:
The South is very conservative which favors Cruz. The north will be better for Trump.

Take a look at all the states that border Wisconsin:

Michigan - Trump won big
Illinois - Trump won big
Minnesota - Netiher Trump nor Cruz won so who cares
Iowa - Trump came in a very strong second, and frankly, if it weren't for Cruz's dishonest campaigning he probably would have won

So geographically speaking, Wisconsin is almost tailor-made for Trump.
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I don't disagree with some of your reasoning (aside from the Minnesota hand waving) but the truth is that Trump has been better in the South than the Midwest, with the exception of Texas for obvious reasons. Populism plays better among Southern Republicans (and Dixiecrats).
 
D

danm999

Member
Hillary is polling ahead in WI?

I guess all that "it's all favourable for Bernie from now" stuff had subconsciously gotten in my head.
 
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