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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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C

ctothej

Member
Hey PredictIt Gaf, what's your take on Hawaii? I'm thinking it's Bernie because A. it's an open primary B. a caucus and C. mostly white and asian (I think I read somewhere Asian Americans lean toward Bernie...?). My only trepidation is the lack of polling. Not sure if it's a safe enough bet to put money on.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
i won't say i'm expecting clinton to poll ahead in wisconsin, but i have been expecting that state to be closer than the CW of "it's a state between 3/15 and 4/19, ergo it must favor Sanders" leads people to think
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
Holmes said:
I don't disagree with some of your reasoning (aside from the Minnesota hand waving) but the truth is that Trump has been better in the South than the Midwest, with the exception of Texas for obvious reasons. Populism plays better among Southern Republicans (and Dixiecrats).
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Yes but I wouldn't call Wisconsin the midwest. Basically the mountain states are Cruz country and everything east of the Mississippi river and the west coast is Trump territory. This could change but that's the pattern I see so far.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
ctothej said:
Hey PredictIt Gaf, what's your take on Hawaii? I'm thinking it's Bernie because A. it's an open primary B. a caucus and C. mostly white and asian (I think I read somewhere Asian Americans lean toward Bernie...?). My only trepidation is the lack of polling. Not sure if it's a safe enough bet to put money on.
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What's it at, if it's below 50 cents for Sanders to win it, it's probably worth the risk to put some money into it.

Edit: It looks too high at 67 cents for that much of a risk. It could honestly go the other way. I'm actually tempted to put a bit into Hillary to win at 33 cents.
 
O

Ophelion

Member
Lol, auditing calls here at work and I just heard a customer in Michigan ask one of my agents what she thought the opinion was here in Washington of Trump.

She was like, "Uuuuhhhhhhhh....not too great."

Then he went on some tinfoil hat rant about Trump being the only guy against The Establishment. Poor girl was just stuck humoring him. Every once in a long while, I hear some funny stuff here at work.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
ctothej said:
Hey PredictIt Gaf, what's your take on Hawaii? I'm thinking it's Bernie because A. it's an open primary B. a caucus and C. mostly white and asian (I think I read somewhere Asian Americans lean toward Bernie...?). My only trepidation is the lack of polling. Not sure if it's a safe enough bet to put money on.
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Trump won Hawaii. I don't understand Hawaii.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
@RodBlum Mar 21
Washington DC is booming. Tower cranes everywhere. Being built on the backs of US taxpayers. DC needs a recession.

CeGp5uiWEAAgJis.jpg
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???????????
 
P

Paskil

Member
If Kasich had been smart, he would be preaching about his attempts to do the same with unions in Ohio that Walker did here. There is a subset of the voting population that hates public sector employees like myself and would eat that up.

At least I can derive satisfaction from the fact that when I shit at work, taxpayers are paying for it.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
ctothej said:
Hey PredictIt Gaf, what's your take on Hawaii? I'm thinking it's Bernie because A. it's an open primary B. a caucus and C. mostly white and asian (I think I read somewhere Asian Americans lean toward Bernie...?). My only trepidation is the lack of polling. Not sure if it's a safe enough bet to put money on.
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As a former kama'aina, I think that Hawaii is likely to go for Hillary.

Obama is from Hawaii and he is pretty explicit about preferring Hillary. Hawaii is not that liberal, it's actually pretty conservative in many ways, it's just very solidly Democratic and majority minority.

There isn't much evidence either way as to Asian American Democratic primary voters as far as I could tell, but I think what I've seen suggests they lean towards Hillary as well.

That's just my opinion! I am interested to see what happens.
 
B

BanGy.nz

Banned
I tuned in just in time to hear he wants Medicare for all and $15 minimum wage on the party platform. He's just talking about Wall street now and it's boring.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
JesseEwiak said:
If you're a Republican in Hawaii, you're either a military guy transferred there, somebody really racist, or somebody really rich, as the Democratic Party is so dominant it's a super big tent party.
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I can't remember if it was PoliGAF or one of the primary/caucus threads in OT where I learned that the Hawaii Senate Minority Leader has the position by virtue of being literally the only Republican in the Hawaii Senate.
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
I almost want Cruz to get the nomination, if only because he's been indoctrinated by his lunatic father to think himself literally chosen by God to become president, and I want him to get as close as possible before his entire world view is burned to ashes.

You know he wouldn't have a concession speech ready, that's for certain.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
Box of Kittens said:
I can't remember if it was PoliGAF or one of the primary/caucus threads in OT where I learned that the Hawaii Senate Minority Leader has the position by virtue of being literally the only Republican in the Hawaii Senate.
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That guy also knew Obama's grandma personally and knew Obama since he was a kid.
 
B

BoboBrazil

Member
Trump is a smart enough businessman to know he wouldn't have a chance of winning if he ran 3rd party, but I think he would do it anyway just to screw the RNC if they screw him over with a contested convention.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Hobbestetrician said:
I bet Trump doesn't give one.

Or he does and it is him continuing to shit on the Republicans he beat.

Or he finally reveals he was a Clinton plant this whole time.
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Oh, he'd give one, and it'll be a mix of passive aggression and backhanded compliments to Clinton, along with somehow promoting his business ventures.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Trump would definitely give a concession speech, dude already gave us a preview of when he came in second earlier in the primaries. What was it? Iowa?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
‏@JordanChariton
.@BernieSanders on if he loses & Dems ask him to rally voters 4 @HillaryClinton: "What's the Dem establishment going to do for us?" #tytlive
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'
Stay classy Bernie. Sorry....I misspelled "piss off".
@JordanChariton
.@BernieSanders on whether @BarackObama is fighting against the establishment or part of it..."I think both" #tytlive #FeelTheBern
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Under the bus with President Obama.

Fuck this guy.
 
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