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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Orbis Tabula
Member
So, Rubio is on the ballot in Florida, right? So even if he drops out, I think there's still going to be a non-zero number of voters who vote for him. Just like some people still voted for Jeb and Carson after they left. It would be hilarious if Rubio dropped out to give Cruz a win over Trump, only to have Trump win because too many people voted for Rubio anyway.
In fact, with absentee ballots, Rubio would actually likely have a shit ton of votes.
In fact, with absentee ballots, Rubio would actually likely have a shit ton of votes.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Rubio Is Not Dropping Out Before FL.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Oh, I definitely don't think he is. He's in it to
Orbis Tabula
Member
I've read that some are convinced that's what Jeb is meeting him about. Brokering the terms of surrender. He uses the last debate to go thermonuclear on Trump, then throws in the towel. I honestly keep waffling on what I want and expect to see.
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
Damn, they kicked Rick Scott off Morning Joe. Mika and Joe are like jilted lovers.
I played video games last night and felt fantastic about it.
(Of course, I'd pause every 20 mins or so to refresh this thread & the twitter, so I had assistance..)
But Cruz is less likely to win. Rubio at least has a majority of Southern Florida on lock; hard to see those people going for Cruz. Plus with all the votes he already got, it would be a waste.
User 463088
Banned
Florida is challenging for Bernie. It's old, and there are large groups of non white vote. My mom's best friend who lives in Florida was talking about how the local news stories were talking about his Castro comment. This is central Florida. If it's getting negative play there, I can imagine it's getting play elsewhere. With early voting, I think Bernie's best play is to try and manage margins there.
Even if he managed 55% of all delegates, Hillary would have 150-180 delegate lead. If his campaign hasn't screwd up so much in the South, he could have had a fairly good shot at this.
I'm watching the debate tonight. My Berniebro flew back to Texas, but he'll be back this weekend. I'll play my drinking game tonight. Basically drink until you pass out.
Even if he managed 55% of all delegates, Hillary would have 150-180 delegate lead. If his campaign hasn't screwd up so much in the South, he could have had a fairly good shot at this.
I'm watching the debate tonight. My Berniebro flew back to Texas, but he'll be back this weekend. I'll play my drinking game tonight. Basically drink until you pass out.
I've been trying to tell this to the feelthebern people, nothing gets more negative attention in South Florida politics than Castro. It's not just Cubans but everyone.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Republican voters are very bad at understanding which candidates are electable.
Republican voters are very bad at understanding which candidates are electable.
They sold the party out to the far far right in 2000 and it hasn't been the same since.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
I'd imagine the cake is too baked for it to matter. He's already piled up quite a bit of the vote through absentees and will be on the ballot; it's likely people will vote for him in his home state regardless of whether he drops out this week or not.
The pressure will come after he loses. He needs to drop out 3-5 days after losing Florida IMO.
Coriolanus
Banned
How in blazes can Romney be less popular than Cruz?
He's probably more hated by the general Republican than Cruz is.
Republican voters are very bad at understanding which candidates are electable.
FreeRepublic/Breitbart response chorus: "the polls were wrong about Michigan and Mississippi, so they might be wrong here! It's a corporate/establishment conspiracy against the outsider!"
Republicans hate him for losing
They blame him for Obamacare
He isn't their type of christian?
Republican voters are very bad at understanding which candidates are electable.
To be fair - you could flip that to the Dem side as well.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Looks bad, but if you put Castro in the search terms, you pretty much already know what he said. A search for just "Bernie Sanders" doesn't look nearly as bad.
User 463088
Banned
Hillary also mentioned the world revolution in her response, I believe. Good way to add negative impact to Bernie's revolution argument.
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/03/10/Urban_Meyer_endorses_John_Kasich.html
Big Don in big trouble in Ohio after head bucknut endorses Kasich
Big Don in big trouble in Ohio after head bucknut endorses Kasich
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
"Romney lost because he wasn't a true conservative!"
--Every republican after 2012 election
Republican voters are very bad at understanding which candidates are electable.
Obama aside (he's a different case as as President basically his popularity is almost directly in lock with how the economy is doing) favorability tends to be a function of knowledge. The more the candidate is exposed to the electorate whether directly or via the lens of the oppositions framing of that candidate the lower the ratings get.
Kasich's number would plummet as soon as the spotlight goes on him, there's more than enough in his record to scare off a good proportion of independents. As it is, the other contenders in the Republican race have just ignored him.
As a Cuban, I think the whole Cuban healthcare praise is bullshit. Everything else he said is fairly fine. Cubans were slaughtered by Castro.
Coriolanus
Banned
Naw man, I see what you're getting at but its not even close to the same.
User 463088
Banned
Oh good, my mom's meltdown will be epic.http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/03/10/Urban_Meyer_endorses_John_Kasich.html
Big Don in big trouble in Ohio after head bucknut endorses Kasich
Chezzymann
Member
If Trump had never entered the race, would Rubio or Bush had been the frontrunner for this primary and things would play out more like they normally do with Cruz occupying the secondary role Sanders has right now? It's crazy how much trump shook things up.
POLL UPDATE
2016 Florida Republican Presidential Primary - Trump 43%, Rubio 20% (FOX News 3/5-3/8)
Population 813 Likely Voters - Republican
Margin of Error ±3.5 percentage points
Polling Method Live Phone
1) 2016 Florida Republican Presidential Primary
Asked of 813 likely voters - republican
Ted Cruz (R) 16%
Don't Know 6%
John Kasich (R) 10%
None of the above 1%
Marco Rubio (R) 20%
Donald Trump (R) 43%
Other 5%
2016 Florida Republican Presidential Primary - Trump 43%, Rubio 20% (FOX News 3/5-3/8)
Population 813 Likely Voters - Republican
Margin of Error ±3.5 percentage points
Polling Method Live Phone
1) 2016 Florida Republican Presidential Primary
Asked of 813 likely voters - republican
Ted Cruz (R) 16%
Don't Know 6%
John Kasich (R) 10%
None of the above 1%
Marco Rubio (R) 20%
Donald Trump (R) 43%
Other 5%
VendettaRed07
Member
If it wasn't for Trump, Cruz would be leading.
There is still a desire for an outsider. Jeb was never going to happen regardless. Cruz brings much of the same energy Trump does, but hes just getting overshadowed.
The only other person who might have benefited would have been Christie, I think
Chezzymann
Member
Yeah I guess that makes sense. The emotions from the voters would still be there regardless. Trump just stole cruzes role basically.
So this would have to be a bigger upset than the Michigan one with bernie was for someone other than trump to win.
Then his political career is officially over.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
Trump better have that Ben Carson endorsement in his back pocket for tomorrow.
Chezzymann
Member
He could still be on path for the nom lock even if that happens right?
Since Florida is a such a delegate-rich winner-take-all state, he'd seal himself as the candidate with the most delegates heading into the convention. He'd be near-impossible to catch, although he still could be prevented from getting a majority of delegates.
Trump winning Florida would send the GOP's meltdown into its next stage.
VendettaRed07
Member
I really wish places would stop including the super delegates in the match ups.
Macho Madness
Member
Yeah. I understand why they do it because when it comes down to it, they do count. But they're not set in stone and it either confuses the politically ignorant or angers them.
GregLombardi
Member
Speaking of delegate counts, does anyone have the Clinton vs. Bernie delegate counts without Superdelegates? I'm tired of searching on big news websites :0(.
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